## Cross-Market Signals

### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.23, Volume: $5.8M

1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of June 24, 2026, Trump's net approval on the Silver Bulletin average is -18.9, holding relatively steady after months of decline.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Trump's approval was relatively flat from November to March, indicating periods of high autocorrelation and stability in the tracker.
3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 50 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Random walk simulation projects July 14 approve% with median 40.5 and 5-95 range of 39.2-41.8, implying small net moves.
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Net approval rebounded from a late-May low of -21.2 to roughly -18.7 by mid-June, then -18.9 on June 24, suggesting a recent modest upward trend.
5. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | RECENT] Consumer sentiment (UMCSENT) is very low at 49.8 (April 2026) and unemployment is 4.3%, a weak economic backdrop for approval gains.
6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump's net approval on the economy dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term, and inflation approval is just 20-30%.
7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] NPR/PBS/Marist June 8-11 poll shows 36% approval, the lowest of his second term, with disapproval tying record highs.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Current second-term low for net approval is around -20.2 to -21.2; recent value of -18.9 sits modestly above that floor.

## Cross-Market Signals

### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.23, Volume: $5.8M

Information gaps:
  - No historical base rate for how much Silver Bulletin net approval typically moves over a 3-week window
  - No exact 'approve' column csv value referenced in resolution criteria
  - No data on upcoming catalysts (economic releases, geopolitical events) before July 14
  - Daily volatility estimate of the tracker not quantified

Key uncertainties:
  - Whether the mid-June rebound continues, stalls, or reverses
  - Impact of inflation/economy approval collapse on overall number
  - Net approval vs approve% distinction in resolution
  - Any major news event in the 3-week window

You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.

## Question
What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to the [resolution source](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin): 

> #### **🕒 The latest on Trump’s approval rating**
>  
> ##### **Updated June 16, 2026**
>  
> Donald Trump’s net approval rating hit a second term low of -21.2 in late May. **Since then, it has rebounded slightly to -18.7**. For comparison, Trump’s net approval rating was just -11.2 at this point in his first term, while Joe Biden’s was -13.5.
>  
> Trump is also underwater on the four major issues we track. His net approval rating on immigration has held steady around -10 since March. But in late May, his net approval on the economy dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term. Things are even more dire for Trump when it comes to inflation. Recent polls show that just [20](https://www.focaldata.com/blog/trump-inflation-approval-crashes-to-record-low) to [30](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/21/polls/times-siena-national-poll-toplines.html) percent of Americans approve of how he’s handled that issue. **-EMD*, 6/8/26***

`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44157, "question_id": 44171}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the approval rating for Donald Trump shown at the Silver Bulletin's [How popular is Donald Trump?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin) tracker for July 14, 2026, when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 15, 2026.

## Fine Print
Between the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart ("Get the data"), the csv file takes precedence. See the "approve" column in the csv.

***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44157) which opened on 2026-06-18 00:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.

## Range
The answer must be a number in [32.95, 45.05] (units: %).

## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.50) Will Trump's net approval rating on the Silver Bulletin tracker on July 14, 2026 be roughly stable (within ~2 points) compared to the mid-June 2026 level of -18.7?  — Approval ratings are highly autocorrelated; the most likely outcome is a value close to the last known reading. The 'app
- (w=0.25) Will Trump's net approval continue rebounding (improve by more than ~2 points) by July 14, 2026, reaching toward -16 or better?  — The June 16 update noted a slight rebound from the -21.2 low; continued improvement is plausible if economic/issue senti
- (w=0.25) Will Trump's net approval deteriorate (worsen by more than ~2 points) by July 14, 2026, falling back toward the late-May low of -21 or lower?  — Economy (-30) and inflation (20-30% approval) are severe drags; a fresh negative shock could resume the slide.

## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of June 24, 2026, Trump's net approval on the Silver Bulletin average is -18.9, holding relatively steady after months of decline.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Trump's approval was relatively flat from November to March, indicating periods of high autocorrelation and stability in the tracker.
3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 50 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Random walk simulation projects July 14 approve% with median 40.5 and 5-95 range of 39.2-41.8, implying small net moves.
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Net approval rebounded from a late-May low of -21.2 to roughly -18.7 by mid-June, then -18.9 on June 24, suggesting a recent modest upward trend.
5. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | RECENT] Consumer sentiment (UMCSENT) is very low at 49.8 (April 2026) and unemployment is 4.3%, a weak economic backdrop for approval gains.
6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump's net approval on the economy dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term, and inflation approval is just 20-30%.
7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] NPR/PBS/Marist June 8-11 poll shows 36% approval, the lowest of his second term, with disapproval tying record highs.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Current second-term low for net approval is around -20.2 to -21.2; recent value of -18.9 sits modestly above that floor.

## Cross-Market Signals

### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.23, Volume: $5.8M

Information gaps:
  - No historical base rate for how much Silver Bulletin net approval typically moves over a 3-week window
  - No exact 'approve' column csv value referenced in resolution criteria
  - No data on upcoming catalysts (economic releases, geopolitical events) before July 14
  - Daily volatility estimate of the tracker not quantified

Key uncertainties:
  - Whether the mid-June rebound continues, stalls, or reverses
  - Impact of inflation/economy approval collapse on overall number
  - Net approval vs approve% distinction in resolution
  - Any major news event in the 3-week window

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
  (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
  (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
  (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
  (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).

## Calibration guidance

- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
  "p10": <number>,
  "p25": <number>,
  "p50": <number>,
  "p75": <number>,
  "p90": <number>
}

Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).

{
  "forecast": {
    "evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of June 24, 2026, Trump\u0027s net approval on the Silver Bulletin average is -18.9, holding relatively steady after months of decline.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Trump\u0027s approval was relatively flat from November to March, indicating periods of high autocorrelation and stability in the tracker.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 50 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Random walk simulation projects July 14 approve% with median 40.5 and 5-95 range of 39.2-41.8, implying small net moves.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Net approval rebounded from a late-May low of -21.2 to roughly -18.7 by mid-June, then -18.9 on June 24, suggesting a recent modest upward trend.\n5. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | RECENT] Consumer sentiment (UMCSENT) is very low at 49.8 (April 2026) and unemployment is 4.3%, a weak economic backdrop for approval gains.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump\u0027s net approval on the economy dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term, and inflation approval is just 20-30%.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] NPR/PBS/Marist June 8-11 poll shows 36% approval, the lowest of his second term, with disapproval tying record highs.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Current second-term low for net approval is around -20.2 to -21.2; recent value of -18.9 sits modestly above that floor.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.23, Volume: $5.8M\n\nInformation gaps:\n  - No historical base rate for how much Silver Bulletin net approval typically moves over a 3-week window\n  - No exact \u0027approve\u0027 column csv value referenced in resolution criteria\n  - No data on upcoming catalysts (economic releases, geopolitical events) before July 14\n  - Daily volatility estimate of the tracker not quantified\n\nKey uncertainties:\n  - Whether the mid-June rebound continues, stalls, or reverses\n  - Impact of inflation/economy approval collapse on overall number\n  - Net approval vs approve% distinction in resolution\n  - Any major news event in the 3-week window",
    "forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be Donald Trump\u0027s approval rating on July 14, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e #### **\ud83d\udd52 The latest on Trump\u2019s approval rating**\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e ##### **Updated June 16, 2026**\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e Donald Trump\u2019s net approval rating hit a second term low of -21.2 in late May.\u00a0**Since then, it has rebounded slightly to -18.7**. For comparison, Trump\u2019s net approval rating was just -11.2 at this point in his first term, while Joe Biden\u2019s was -13.5.\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e Trump is also underwater on the four major issues we track. His net approval rating on immigration has held steady around -10 since March. But in late May, his net approval on the economy dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term. Things are even more dire for Trump when it comes to inflation. Recent polls show that just\u00a0[20](https://www.focaldata.com/blog/trump-inflation-approval-crashes-to-record-low)\u00a0to\u00a0[30](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/21/polls/times-siena-national-poll-toplines.html)\u00a0percent of Americans approve of how he\u2019s handled that issue.\u00a0**-EMD*, 6/8/26***\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44157, \"question_id\": 44171}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the approval rating for Donald Trump shown at the Silver Bulletin\u0027s [How popular is Donald Trump?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin) tracker for July 14, 2026, when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 15, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nBetween the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart (\"Get the data\"), the csv file takes precedence. See the \"approve\" column in the csv.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44157) which opened on 2026-06-18 00:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [32.95, 45.05] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.50) Will Trump\u0027s net approval rating on the Silver Bulletin tracker on July 14, 2026 be roughly stable (within ~2 points) compared to the mid-June 2026 level of -18.7?  \u2014 Approval ratings are highly autocorrelated; the most likely outcome is a value close to the last known reading. The \u0027app\n- (w=0.25) Will Trump\u0027s net approval continue rebounding (improve by more than ~2 points) by July 14, 2026, reaching toward -16 or better?  \u2014 The June 16 update noted a slight rebound from the -21.2 low; continued improvement is plausible if economic/issue senti\n- (w=0.25) Will Trump\u0027s net approval deteriorate (worsen by more than ~2 points) by July 14, 2026, falling back toward the late-May low of -21 or lower?  \u2014 Economy (-30) and inflation (20-30% approval) are severe drags; a fresh negative shock could resume the slide.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of June 24, 2026, Trump\u0027s net approval on the Silver Bulletin average is -18.9, holding relatively steady after months of decline.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Trump\u0027s approval was relatively flat from November to March, indicating periods of high autocorrelation and stability in the tracker.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 50 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Random walk simulation projects July 14 approve% with median 40.5 and 5-95 range of 39.2-41.8, implying small net moves.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Net approval rebounded from a late-May low of -21.2 to roughly -18.7 by mid-June, then -18.9 on June 24, suggesting a recent modest upward trend.\n5. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | RECENT] Consumer sentiment (UMCSENT) is very low at 49.8 (April 2026) and unemployment is 4.3%, a weak economic backdrop for approval gains.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump\u0027s net approval on the economy dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term, and inflation approval is just 20-30%.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] NPR/PBS/Marist June 8-11 poll shows 36% approval, the lowest of his second term, with disapproval tying record highs.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Current second-term low for net approval is around -20.2 to -21.2; recent value of -18.9 sits modestly above that floor.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.23, Volume: $5.8M\n\nInformation gaps:\n  - No historical base rate for how much Silver Bulletin net approval typically moves over a 3-week window\n  - No exact \u0027approve\u0027 column csv value referenced in resolution criteria\n  - No data on upcoming catalysts (economic releases, geopolitical events) before July 14\n  - Daily volatility estimate of the tracker not quantified\n\nKey uncertainties:\n  - Whether the mid-June rebound continues, stalls, or reverses\n  - Impact of inflation/economy approval collapse on overall number\n  - Net approval vs approve% distinction in resolution\n  - Any major news event in the 3-week window\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n  (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n  (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n  (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n  (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n  (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n  (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n  \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n  \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n  \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n  \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n  \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n  \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
    "models": [
      "opus"
    ],
    "p50": 40.4,
    "percentiles": {
      "0.1": 39.2,
      "0.25": 39.9,
      "0.5": 40.4,
      "0.75": 40.9,
      "0.9": 41.6
    },
    "rationale": "(a) About 3 weeks remain until July 14, 2026 resolution. (b) Status quo: the latest readings put net approval at ~-18.9 (June 24), corresponding to an approve% near 40.4-40.5. (c) Current trend shows a slight rebound from the late-May low (-21.2) toward -18.7/-18.9, but it has largely stalled, suggesting only minor net change ahead. (d) A random-walk simulation projects a July 14 median approve% of ~40.5 with a narrow 39.2-41.8 band; approval is highly autocorrelated and moved little over comparable windows. (e) A LOW outcome (~39.3) arises if a fresh negative shock\u2014worsening inflation data, economic deterioration (sentiment at 49.8), or a damaging news cycle\u2014resumes the slide back toward the -21 floor. (f) A HIGH outcome (~41.5) arises if the modest rebound continues amid favorable headlines or a stable economic backdrop, pushing net approval toward -16. Given strong autocorrelation, weak economic fundamentals capping upside, and an existing floor near the recent low, I center the distribution at ~40.4 with moderately wide tails to capture event risk over the 3-week horizon."
  },
  "plan": {
    "combination_logic": "weighted_average",
    "domain": "politics",
    "n_sub_qs": 3,
    "n_tools": 4,
    "reasoning_approach": "Establish the most recent tracker value via web/news search, anchor on it given high autocorrelation, then weight stable/improving/deteriorating scenarios informed by economic indicators and a random-walk simulation to produce the numeric distribution.",
    "sub_questions": [
      {
        "id": "sq1",
        "question": "Will Trump\u0027s net approval rating on the Silver Bulletin tracker on July 14, 2026 be roughly stable (within ~2 points) compared to the mid-June 2026 level of -18.7?",
        "rationale": "Approval ratings are highly autocorrelated; the most likely outcome is a value close to the last known reading. The \u0027approve\u0027 column will hover near the recent baseline absent a shock.",
        "weight": 0.5
      },
      {
        "id": "sq2",
        "question": "Will Trump\u0027s net approval continue rebounding (improve by more than ~2 points) by July 14, 2026, reaching toward -16 or better?",
        "rationale": "The June 16 update noted a slight rebound from the -21.2 low; continued improvement is plausible if economic/issue sentiment stabilizes.",
        "weight": 0.25
      },
      {
        "id": "sq3",
        "question": "Will Trump\u0027s net approval deteriorate (worsen by more than ~2 points) by July 14, 2026, falling back toward the late-May low of -21 or lower?",
        "rationale": "Economy (-30) and inflation (20-30% approval) are severe drags; a fresh negative shock could resume the slide.",
        "weight": 0.25
      }
    ],
    "tool_requests": [
      {
        "parameters": {
          "queries": [
            "Trump approval rating Silver Bulletin July 2026",
            "Trump net approval rating latest poll June July 2026",
            "Nate Silver Trump approval tracker current"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq2",
          "sq3"
        ],
        "tool_name": "web_search"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "brief": "Find the most recent Silver Bulletin Trump approval rating tracker value (the \u0027approve\u0027 percentage and net approval), and any polling trend changes in late June / early July 2026. Note direction of movement relative to the mid-June -18.7 net approval.",
          "max_searches": 4,
          "question_title": "What will be Donald Trump\u0027s approval rating on July 14, 2026?"
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq2",
          "sq3"
        ],
        "tool_name": "claude_news"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "lookback_months": 12,
          "series_ids": [
            "UNRATE",
            "CPIAUCSL",
            "UMCSENT"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq2",
          "sq3"
        ],
        "tool_name": "fred_data"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "code": "import numpy as np\n# Model the \u0027approve\u0027 percentage. Recent net approval ~ -18.7. Need approve column value.\n# Approve% typically ~ (100 - disapprove)/... Using net = approve - disapprove.\n# If net=-18.7 and total non-undecided, approve ~ 40-41%.\n# Random walk simulation for ~28 days from mid-June to July 14.\nnp.random.seed(42)\ncurrent_approve = 40.5  # approx approve %\ndaily_sigma = 0.12  # daily noise in approve %\ndays = 28\nsims = 50000\nfinal = current_approve + np.random.normal(0, daily_sigma*np.sqrt(days), sims)\n# slight mean reversion / drift uncertainty\ndrift = np.random.normal(0, 0.5, sims)\nfinal = final + drift\nprint(\u0027mean\u0027, round(final.mean(),2))\nfor q in [5,25,50,75,95]:\n    print(q, round(np.percentile(final,q),2))",
          "description": "Random walk simulation of Trump approve% over ~28 days to estimate July 14 distribution"
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq2",
          "sq3"
        ],
        "tool_name": "code_execution"
      }
    ]
  },
  "question": {
    "close_time": "2026-06-25T00:00:00Z",
    "description": "## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e #### **\ud83d\udd52 The latest on Trump\u2019s approval rating**\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e ##### **Updated June 16, 2026**\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e Donald Trump\u2019s net approval rating hit a second term low of -21.2 in late May.\u00a0**Since then, it has rebounded slightly to -18.7**. For comparison, Trump\u2019s net approval rating was just -11.2 at this point in his first term, while Joe Biden\u2019s was -13.5.\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e Trump is also underwater on the four major issues we track. His net approval rating on immigration has held steady around -10 since March. But in late May, his net approval on the economy dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term. Things are even more dire for Trump when it comes to inflation. Recent polls show that just\u00a0[20](https://www.focaldata.com/blog/trump-inflation-approval-crashes-to-record-low)\u00a0to\u00a0[30](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/21/polls/times-siena-national-poll-toplines.html)\u00a0percent of Americans approve of how he\u2019s handled that issue.\u00a0**-EMD*, 6/8/26***\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44157, \"question_id\": 44171}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the approval rating for Donald Trump shown at the Silver Bulletin\u0027s [How popular is Donald Trump?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin) tracker for July 14, 2026, when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 15, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nBetween the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart (\"Get the data\"), the csv file takes precedence. See the \"approve\" column in the csv.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44157) which opened on 2026-06-18 00:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
    "open_lower": true,
    "open_upper": true,
    "q_max": 45.05,
    "q_min": 32.95,
    "question_type": "numeric",
    "title": "What will be Donald Trump\u0027s approval rating on July 14, 2026?",
    "units": "%"
  },
  "research": {
    "cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.23, Volume: $5.8M",
    "errors": [],
    "has_cross_market": true,
    "n_errors": 0,
    "n_tools": 4,
    "tools": [
      {
        "elapsed_s": 45.68,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "0 results",
        "tool_name": "web_search"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 32.7,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "14 citations",
        "tool_name": "claude_news"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 11.62,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "3 series",
        "tool_name": "fred_data"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 0.28,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "Random walk simulation of Trump approve% over ~28 days to es",
        "tool_name": "code_execution"
      }
    ]
  },
  "synthesis": {
    "evidence": [
      {
        "claim": "As of June 24, 2026, Trump\u0027s net approval on the Silver Bulletin average is -18.9, holding relatively steady after months of decline.",
        "credibility": 85,
        "direction": "NEUTRAL",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Trump\u0027s approval was relatively flat from November to March, indicating periods of high autocorrelation and stability in the tracker.",
        "credibility": 75,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Random walk simulation projects July 14 approve% with median 40.5 and 5-95 range of 39.2-41.8, implying small net moves.",
        "credibility": 50,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "code_execution",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Net approval rebounded from a late-May low of -21.2 to roughly -18.7 by mid-June, then -18.9 on June 24, suggesting a recent modest upward trend.",
        "credibility": 80,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Consumer sentiment (UMCSENT) is very low at 49.8 (April 2026) and unemployment is 4.3%, a weak economic backdrop for approval gains.",
        "credibility": 90,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "RECENT",
        "source": "fred_data",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Trump\u0027s net approval on the economy dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term, and inflation approval is just 20-30%.",
        "credibility": 80,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      },
      {
        "claim": "NPR/PBS/Marist June 8-11 poll shows 36% approval, the lowest of his second term, with disapproval tying record highs.",
        "credibility": 80,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Current second-term low for net approval is around -20.2 to -21.2; recent value of -18.9 sits modestly above that floor.",
        "credibility": 80,
        "direction": "NEUTRAL",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      }
    ],
    "information_gaps": [
      "No historical base rate for how much Silver Bulletin net approval typically moves over a 3-week window",
      "No exact \u0027approve\u0027 column csv value referenced in resolution criteria",
      "No data on upcoming catalysts (economic releases, geopolitical events) before July 14",
      "Daily volatility estimate of the tracker not quantified"
    ],
    "key_uncertainties": [
      "Whether the mid-June rebound continues, stalls, or reverses",
      "Impact of inflation/economy approval collapse on overall number",
      "Net approval vs approve% distinction in resolution",
      "Any major news event in the 3-week window"
    ],
    "n_evidence": 8
  },
  "timings": {
    "forecast": 14.36,
    "plan": 17.15,
    "research": 45.68,
    "synthesis": 15.57
  }
}