Estimate each sub-question's probability from news on the directive's resolution, then blend via weighted average to reflect the correlated outcomes (Fable open, Fable US-only, Mythos open/closed) since all depend on the same government decision.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of June 23, 2026 (Day 11), both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 remain offline for all users worldwide. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic's International MD said models will become available again 'in the coming days.' 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] White House said Trump eased national security concerns after meeting Amodei at the G7 summit. 4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic updated its privacy policy (effective July 8) to collect government ID and biometrics, a likely mechanism for US-only restoration. 5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic disputes the directive's severity, saying the cited jailbreak exploits only minor vulnerabilities other models can find. 6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Over 100 cybersecurity executives, including from Nvidia and Adobe, urged the administration to ease restrictions. 7. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge previously blocked the Pentagon from labeling Anthropic a supply chain risk, an early legal win for the company. 8. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The export directive bars use by any foreign national, the core barrier to non-US availability of Fable. 9. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 50 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Privacy policy mechanism suggests restoration path is US-citizens-only verification, with international subscribers staying on Opus 4.8. 10. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Before suspension, Fable 5 was generally available across global cloud platforms (AWS Bedrock, Vertex AI, Microsoft Foundry). 11. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Pre-suspension, Mythos was limited to ~150 trusted organisations (including private firms like Amazon, JPMorgan, Microsoft) via Project Glasswing. 12. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic suspended all Mythos access including to non-governmental private firms to comply with the foreign-national directive. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No data after ~June 23, 2026; no info on actual restoration timeline near Sept 1 - No base rate for how long export-control suspensions of this type last - Unclear if restoration would extend to non-US or non-governmental Mythos users - No confirmation of court ruling outcome or Commerce directive resolution Key uncertainties: - Whether Commerce lifts/modifies the directive before Sept 1 - Whether restoration is US-only or includes other countries - Whether Mythos returns to private (non-gov) organisations - Effect of Trump-Amodei thaw vs ongoing intelligence-agency turf battle
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Claude is a family of large language models developed by Anthropic. Its most capable tier, which Anthropic calls "Mythos-class", is noted for cybersecurity capabilities, including the ability to find and exploit software vulnerabilities. From April 2026, Anthropic gave a limited set of organisations preview access to a Mythos-class model under a programme called [Project Glasswing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_\(language_model\)#Claude_Mythos), reaching roughly 150 organisations in more than 15 countries by early June.
On June 10, 2026, Anthropic [released Claude Fable 5](https://qz.com/anthropic-fable-5-mythos-5-export-control-directive-061226), its first publicly available Mythos-class model, with guardrails restricting responses in high-risk domains such as cybersecurity and biology. A less restricted version built on the same model, Claude Mythos 5, remained limited to the trusted-access programme. On June 12, Anthropic [disabled all access to both](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/anthropic-disables-access-to-fable-5-and-mythos-5-to-comply-with-government-directive.html) to comply with an export-control directive from the United States Department of Commerce barring use by any foreign national, including the company's own foreign-national employees. Anthropic said this required suspending the models entirely rather than restricting access selectively, disputed the directive, and said it was working to restore access. On June 15, [more than 100 cybersecurity experts](https://japantoday.com/category/tech/cybersecurity-executives-urge-the-trump-administration-to-ease-restrictions-on-anthropic-ai-models), including leaders at companies such as Nvidia and Adobe, urged the administration to lift the restrictions. As of June 2026, both models remained suspended.
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44151, "question_id": 44166}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the joint access status for Claude Fable and Claude Mythos on September 1, 2026, at 8AM UTC, according to credible sources
Claude Fable Access
* Open: Fable is generally available in at least one country besides the US.
* US‑only: Fable is generally available in the US, but not in any other country.
* Closed: Fable isn't generally available anywhere.
Claude Mythos Access
* Open: Non-governmental organisations besides Anthropic have access to Mythos.
* Closed: At most government organisations and Anthropic have access to Mythos.
## Fine Print
Generally available corresponds to access to individuals independently of any association with an organization. Restricting access to a specific paid tier would still qualify, provided this tier is purchasable broadly.
Any model branded "Claude Fable" or "Claude Mythos" will count, regardless of version or other details.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44151) which opened on 2026-06-22 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Options
- Fable Open, Mythos Open
- Fable US-only, Mythos Open
- Fable Closed, Mythos Open
- Fable Open, Mythos Closed
- Fable US-only, Mythos Closed
- Fable Closed, Mythos Closed
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.40) Will Anthropic have restored general public access to Claude Fable (in at least the US) by September 1, 2026? — The core uncertainty is whether the export-control suspension is lifted at all; Fable restoration is the most likely fir
- (w=0.30) Will Claude Fable be generally available in at least one country besides the US by September 1, 2026? — Distinguishes the 'Open' from 'US-only' Fable outcome, which hinges on how the Commerce directive's foreign-national res
- (w=0.30) Will non-governmental organisations besides Anthropic have access to Claude Mythos by September 1, 2026? — Determines Mythos access status (Open vs Closed); Mythos is less restricted and the explicit target of the export direct
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of June 23, 2026 (Day 11), both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 remain offline for all users worldwide.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic's International MD said models will become available again 'in the coming days.'
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] White House said Trump eased national security concerns after meeting Amodei at the G7 summit.
4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic updated its privacy policy (effective July 8) to collect government ID and biometrics, a likely mechanism for US-only restoration.
5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic disputes the directive's severity, saying the cited jailbreak exploits only minor vulnerabilities other models can find.
6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Over 100 cybersecurity executives, including from Nvidia and Adobe, urged the administration to ease restrictions.
7. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge previously blocked the Pentagon from labeling Anthropic a supply chain risk, an early legal win for the company.
8. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The export directive bars use by any foreign national, the core barrier to non-US availability of Fable.
9. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 50 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Privacy policy mechanism suggests restoration path is US-citizens-only verification, with international subscribers staying on Opus 4.8.
10. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Before suspension, Fable 5 was generally available across global cloud platforms (AWS Bedrock, Vertex AI, Microsoft Foundry).
11. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Pre-suspension, Mythos was limited to ~150 trusted organisations (including private firms like Amazon, JPMorgan, Microsoft) via Project Glasswing.
12. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic suspended all Mythos access including to non-governmental private firms to comply with the foreign-national directive.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No data after ~June 23, 2026; no info on actual restoration timeline near Sept 1
- No base rate for how long export-control suspensions of this type last
- Unclear if restoration would extend to non-US or non-governmental Mythos users
- No confirmation of court ruling outcome or Commerce directive resolution
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Commerce lifts/modifies the directive before Sept 1
- Whether restoration is US-only or includes other countries
- Whether Mythos returns to private (non-gov) organisations
- Effect of Trump-Amodei thaw vs ongoing intelligence-agency turf battle
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Fable Open, Mythos Open": <prob>,
"Fable US-only, Mythos Open": <prob>,
"Fable Closed, Mythos Open": <prob>,
"Fable Open, Mythos Closed": <prob>,
"Fable US-only, Mythos Closed": <prob>,
"Fable Closed, Mythos Closed": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of June 23, 2026 (Day 11), both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 remain offline for all users worldwide.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic\u0027s International MD said models will become available again \u0027in the coming days.\u0027\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] White House said Trump eased national security concerns after meeting Amodei at the G7 summit.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic updated its privacy policy (effective July 8) to collect government ID and biometrics, a likely mechanism for US-only restoration.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic disputes the directive\u0027s severity, saying the cited jailbreak exploits only minor vulnerabilities other models can find.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Over 100 cybersecurity executives, including from Nvidia and Adobe, urged the administration to ease restrictions.\n7. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge previously blocked the Pentagon from labeling Anthropic a supply chain risk, an early legal win for the company.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The export directive bars use by any foreign national, the core barrier to non-US availability of Fable.\n9. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 50 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Privacy policy mechanism suggests restoration path is US-citizens-only verification, with international subscribers staying on Opus 4.8.\n10. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Before suspension, Fable 5 was generally available across global cloud platforms (AWS Bedrock, Vertex AI, Microsoft Foundry).\n11. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Pre-suspension, Mythos was limited to ~150 trusted organisations (including private firms like Amazon, JPMorgan, Microsoft) via Project Glasswing.\n12. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic suspended all Mythos access including to non-governmental private firms to comply with the foreign-national directive.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No data after ~June 23, 2026; no info on actual restoration timeline near Sept 1\n - No base rate for how long export-control suspensions of this type last\n - Unclear if restoration would extend to non-US or non-governmental Mythos users\n - No confirmation of court ruling outcome or Commerce directive resolution\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Commerce lifts/modifies the directive before Sept 1\n - Whether restoration is US-only or includes other countries\n - Whether Mythos returns to private (non-gov) organisations\n - Effect of Trump-Amodei thaw vs ongoing intelligence-agency turf battle",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nClaude is a family of large language models developed by Anthropic. Its most capable tier, which Anthropic calls \"Mythos-class\", is noted for cybersecurity capabilities, including the ability to find and exploit software vulnerabilities. From April 2026, Anthropic gave a limited set of organisations preview access to a Mythos-class model under a programme called [Project Glasswing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_\\(language_model\\)#Claude_Mythos), reaching roughly 150 organisations in more than 15 countries by early June.\n\nOn June 10, 2026, Anthropic [released Claude Fable 5](https://qz.com/anthropic-fable-5-mythos-5-export-control-directive-061226), its first publicly available Mythos-class model, with guardrails restricting responses in high-risk domains such as cybersecurity and biology. A less restricted version built on the same model, Claude Mythos 5, remained limited to the trusted-access programme. On June 12, Anthropic [disabled all access to both](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/anthropic-disables-access-to-fable-5-and-mythos-5-to-comply-with-government-directive.html) to comply with an export-control directive from the United States Department of Commerce barring use by any foreign national, including the company\u0027s own foreign-national employees. Anthropic said this required suspending the models entirely rather than restricting access selectively, disputed the directive, and said it was working to restore access. On June 15, [more than 100 cybersecurity experts](https://japantoday.com/category/tech/cybersecurity-executives-urge-the-trump-administration-to-ease-restrictions-on-anthropic-ai-models), including leaders at companies such as Nvidia and Adobe, urged the administration to lift the restrictions. As of June 2026, both models remained suspended.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44151, \"question_id\": 44166}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the joint access status for Claude Fable and Claude Mythos on September 1, 2026, at 8AM UTC, according to credible sources\n\nClaude Fable Access\n\n* Open: Fable is generally available in at least one country besides the US.\n* US\u2011only: Fable is generally available in the US, but not in any other country.\n* Closed: Fable isn\u0027t generally available anywhere.\n\nClaude Mythos Access\n\n* Open: Non-governmental organisations besides Anthropic have access to Mythos.\n* Closed: At most government organisations and Anthropic have access to Mythos.\n\n## Fine Print\nGenerally available corresponds to access to individuals independently of any association with an organization. Restricting access to a specific paid tier would still qualify, provided this tier is purchasable broadly.\n\nAny model branded \"Claude Fable\" or \"Claude Mythos\" will count, regardless of version or other details.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44151) which opened on 2026-06-22 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Options\n - Fable Open, Mythos Open\n - Fable US-only, Mythos Open\n - Fable Closed, Mythos Open\n - Fable Open, Mythos Closed\n - Fable US-only, Mythos Closed\n - Fable Closed, Mythos Closed\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.40) Will Anthropic have restored general public access to Claude Fable (in at least the US) by September 1, 2026? \u2014 The core uncertainty is whether the export-control suspension is lifted at all; Fable restoration is the most likely fir\n- (w=0.30) Will Claude Fable be generally available in at least one country besides the US by September 1, 2026? \u2014 Distinguishes the \u0027Open\u0027 from \u0027US-only\u0027 Fable outcome, which hinges on how the Commerce directive\u0027s foreign-national res\n- (w=0.30) Will non-governmental organisations besides Anthropic have access to Claude Mythos by September 1, 2026? \u2014 Determines Mythos access status (Open vs Closed); Mythos is less restricted and the explicit target of the export direct\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of June 23, 2026 (Day 11), both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 remain offline for all users worldwide.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic\u0027s International MD said models will become available again \u0027in the coming days.\u0027\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] White House said Trump eased national security concerns after meeting Amodei at the G7 summit.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic updated its privacy policy (effective July 8) to collect government ID and biometrics, a likely mechanism for US-only restoration.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic disputes the directive\u0027s severity, saying the cited jailbreak exploits only minor vulnerabilities other models can find.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Over 100 cybersecurity executives, including from Nvidia and Adobe, urged the administration to ease restrictions.\n7. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge previously blocked the Pentagon from labeling Anthropic a supply chain risk, an early legal win for the company.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The export directive bars use by any foreign national, the core barrier to non-US availability of Fable.\n9. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 50 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Privacy policy mechanism suggests restoration path is US-citizens-only verification, with international subscribers staying on Opus 4.8.\n10. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Before suspension, Fable 5 was generally available across global cloud platforms (AWS Bedrock, Vertex AI, Microsoft Foundry).\n11. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Pre-suspension, Mythos was limited to ~150 trusted organisations (including private firms like Amazon, JPMorgan, Microsoft) via Project Glasswing.\n12. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic suspended all Mythos access including to non-governmental private firms to comply with the foreign-national directive.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No data after ~June 23, 2026; no info on actual restoration timeline near Sept 1\n - No base rate for how long export-control suspensions of this type last\n - Unclear if restoration would extend to non-US or non-governmental Mythos users\n - No confirmation of court ruling outcome or Commerce directive resolution\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Commerce lifts/modifies the directive before Sept 1\n - Whether restoration is US-only or includes other countries\n - Whether Mythos returns to private (non-gov) organisations\n - Effect of Trump-Amodei thaw vs ongoing intelligence-agency turf battle\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Fable Open, Mythos Open\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Fable US-only, Mythos Open\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Fable Closed, Mythos Open\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Fable Open, Mythos Closed\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Fable US-only, Mythos Closed\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Fable Closed, Mythos Closed\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"probabilities": {
"Fable Closed, Mythos Closed": 0.33,
"Fable Closed, Mythos Open": 0.02,
"Fable Open, Mythos Closed": 0.13,
"Fable Open, Mythos Open": 0.13,
"Fable US-only, Mythos Closed": 0.25,
"Fable US-only, Mythos Open": 0.14
},
"rationale": "(a) About 2.5 months remain until Sept 1, 2026 resolution. (b) Status quo as of late June is both models fully suspended (Fable Closed, Mythos Closed), but there is strong restoration momentum: Anthropic says access returns \u0027in coming days,\u0027 Trump reportedly eased concerns post-G7, favorable court precedent, industry pressure, and a privacy-policy mechanism (gov ID/biometrics) clearly built for US-only verification. (c) A surprising-but-plausible outcome is full Open/Open with global availability if Anthropic wins its dispute and the directive is broadly lifted. The export directive specifically bars foreign nationals, making US-only the most likely Fable restoration path; international users likely stay on Opus, so \u0027Open\u0027 Fable is less likely than US-only. Mythos is the explicit cyber-capability target and the most sensitive tier, so it is the most likely to remain Closed even if Fable returns; however it was previously open to private firms (Amazon, JPMorgan), so any restoration to non-gov orgs would flip it to Open. I weight Fable Closed ~35%, US-only ~39%, Open ~26%, with Mythos restoration correlated with Fable being restored.",
"top_option": "Fable Closed, Mythos Closed"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate each sub-question\u0027s probability from news on the directive\u0027s resolution, then blend via weighted average to reflect the correlated outcomes (Fable open, Fable US-only, Mythos open/closed) since all depend on the same government decision.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Anthropic have restored general public access to Claude Fable (in at least the US) by September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "The core uncertainty is whether the export-control suspension is lifted at all; Fable restoration is the most likely first step given its built-in guardrails.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Claude Fable be generally available in at least one country besides the US by September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Distinguishes the \u0027Open\u0027 from \u0027US-only\u0027 Fable outcome, which hinges on how the Commerce directive\u0027s foreign-national restriction is resolved.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will non-governmental organisations besides Anthropic have access to Claude Mythos by September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Determines Mythos access status (Open vs Closed); Mythos is less restricted and the explicit target of the export directive, so restoration is harder.",
"weight": 0.3
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest status of Anthropic Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 access following the June 2026 Commerce Department export-control directive suspension. Determine whether access has been restored, whether the directive was lifted or modified, and any developments through August 2026.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 90,
"queries": [
"Anthropic Claude Fable Mythos access restored export control",
"Commerce Department directive Anthropic AI models lifted",
"Anthropic foreign national restriction Claude Mythos cybersecurity"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Claude Fable 5 available again 2026",
"Anthropic Mythos export control directive update"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-06-23T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nClaude is a family of large language models developed by Anthropic. Its most capable tier, which Anthropic calls \"Mythos-class\", is noted for cybersecurity capabilities, including the ability to find and exploit software vulnerabilities. From April 2026, Anthropic gave a limited set of organisations preview access to a Mythos-class model under a programme called [Project Glasswing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_\\(language_model\\)#Claude_Mythos), reaching roughly 150 organisations in more than 15 countries by early June.\n\nOn June 10, 2026, Anthropic [released Claude Fable 5](https://qz.com/anthropic-fable-5-mythos-5-export-control-directive-061226), its first publicly available Mythos-class model, with guardrails restricting responses in high-risk domains such as cybersecurity and biology. A less restricted version built on the same model, Claude Mythos 5, remained limited to the trusted-access programme. On June 12, Anthropic [disabled all access to both](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/anthropic-disables-access-to-fable-5-and-mythos-5-to-comply-with-government-directive.html) to comply with an export-control directive from the United States Department of Commerce barring use by any foreign national, including the company\u0027s own foreign-national employees. Anthropic said this required suspending the models entirely rather than restricting access selectively, disputed the directive, and said it was working to restore access. On June 15, [more than 100 cybersecurity experts](https://japantoday.com/category/tech/cybersecurity-executives-urge-the-trump-administration-to-ease-restrictions-on-anthropic-ai-models), including leaders at companies such as Nvidia and Adobe, urged the administration to lift the restrictions. As of June 2026, both models remained suspended.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44151, \"question_id\": 44166}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the joint access status for Claude Fable and Claude Mythos on September 1, 2026, at 8AM UTC, according to credible sources\n\nClaude Fable Access\n\n* Open: Fable is generally available in at least one country besides the US.\n* US\u2011only: Fable is generally available in the US, but not in any other country.\n* Closed: Fable isn\u0027t generally available anywhere.\n\nClaude Mythos Access\n\n* Open: Non-governmental organisations besides Anthropic have access to Mythos.\n* Closed: At most government organisations and Anthropic have access to Mythos.\n\n## Fine Print\nGenerally available corresponds to access to individuals independently of any association with an organization. Restricting access to a specific paid tier would still qualify, provided this tier is purchasable broadly.\n\nAny model branded \"Claude Fable\" or \"Claude Mythos\" will count, regardless of version or other details.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44151) which opened on 2026-06-22 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"options": [
"Fable Open, Mythos Open",
"Fable US-only, Mythos Open",
"Fable Closed, Mythos Open",
"Fable Open, Mythos Closed",
"Fable US-only, Mythos Closed",
"Fable Closed, Mythos Closed"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 38.52,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "10 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.6,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "18 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 65.99,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "As of June 23, 2026 (Day 11), both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 remain offline for all users worldwide.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Anthropic\u0027s International MD said models will become available again \u0027in the coming days.\u0027",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "White House said Trump eased national security concerns after meeting Amodei at the G7 summit.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Anthropic updated its privacy policy (effective July 8) to collect government ID and biometrics, a likely mechanism for US-only restoration.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Anthropic disputes the directive\u0027s severity, saying the cited jailbreak exploits only minor vulnerabilities other models can find.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Over 100 cybersecurity executives, including from Nvidia and Adobe, urged the administration to ease restrictions.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "A federal judge previously blocked the Pentagon from labeling Anthropic a supply chain risk, an early legal win for the company.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The export directive bars use by any foreign national, the core barrier to non-US availability of Fable.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Privacy policy mechanism suggests restoration path is US-citizens-only verification, with international subscribers staying on Opus 4.8.",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Before suspension, Fable 5 was generally available across global cloud platforms (AWS Bedrock, Vertex AI, Microsoft Foundry).",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Pre-suspension, Mythos was limited to ~150 trusted organisations (including private firms like Amazon, JPMorgan, Microsoft) via Project Glasswing.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Anthropic suspended all Mythos access including to non-governmental private firms to comply with the foreign-national directive.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No data after ~June 23, 2026; no info on actual restoration timeline near Sept 1",
"No base rate for how long export-control suspensions of this type last",
"Unclear if restoration would extend to non-US or non-governmental Mythos users",
"No confirmation of court ruling outcome or Commerce directive resolution"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Commerce lifts/modifies the directive before Sept 1",
"Whether restoration is US-only or includes other countries",
"Whether Mythos returns to private (non-gov) organisations",
"Effect of Trump-Amodei thaw vs ongoing intelligence-agency turf battle"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 29.97,
"plan": 11.93,
"research": 65.99,
"synthesis": 21.58
}
}