Estimate a Poisson distribution for June-August major hurricanes from historical season totals adjusted for the early-season fraction, then update with 2026 preseason forecasts and environmental conditions; combine threshold sub-questions plus the environmental driver via weighted average to form the multiple-choice count distribution.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.3M
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model from historical totals yields Jun-Aug mean of 1.52 majors, with P(>=1)=0.78. 2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model estimates P(>=2 majors by Aug 31)=0.45. 3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model estimates P(>=3 majors by Aug 31)=0.20. 4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 season (55% chance), predicting only 1-3 major hurricanes for the full season. 5. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | RECENT] Fast, intense El Niño development is expected to raise Atlantic wind shear, suppressing storm formation. 6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Sea surface temperatures in Gulf and Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, which could fuel any storms that do form. 7. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] CSU's June 10 update cut named storm forecast from 13 to 11 citing growing El Niño confidence. 8. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of mid-June 2026, only Tropical Storm Arthur had formed; no major hurricanes recorded and 13 days produced zero activity. 9. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | RECENT] University of Arizona issued aggressive outlook of 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major cyclones for 2026 full season. 10. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Historical season totals 2016-2025 averaged ~4 major Atlantic hurricanes per full season. 11. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | RECENT] First Atlantic hurricane typically forms around August 11; most major hurricanes occur in September-October peak. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.3M Information gaps: - No historical base rate of major hurricanes specifically in Jun-Aug window - No confirmed ENSO state (El Niño vs neutral) as of question open - NOAA/CSU forecasts cover full season, not Jun-Aug subset - No real-time tropical activity data past mid-June 2026 Key uncertainties: - Strength and timing of El Niño suppression vs warm SSTs - How much of forecasted full-season majors fall before Sept 1 - Whether any single August system reaches Cat 3+ - Divergence between NOAA (below-normal) and Univ. Arizona (active) forecasts
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the [Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.
In recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.
| Year | [Number of Major Atlantic Hurricanes](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php) | |
| ---- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | - |
| 2025 | 4 | |
| 2024 | 5 | |
| 2023 | 3 | |
| 2022 | 2 | |
| 2021 | 4 | |
| 2020 | 7 | |
| 2019 | 3 | |
| 2018 | 2 | |
| 2017 | 6 | |
| 2016 | 4 | |
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 43368, "question_id": 43364}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur between June 1, 2026, and August 31, 2026, inclusive, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service on September 1, 2026.
## Fine Print
If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point before September 2026, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.
The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of September 1, 2026. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43368) which opened on 2026-06-15 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Options
- 0
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5 or more
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will at least 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Cat 3+) occur between June 1 and August 31, 2026? — Establishes the baseline floor; early-season major hurricanes by August are common in active years but not guaranteed, s
- (w=0.35) Will at least 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Cat 3+) occur by August 31, 2026? — The historical median for the June-August window; central tendency anchor for the distribution.
- (w=0.25) Will at least 3 major Atlantic hurricanes (Cat 3+) occur by August 31, 2026? — Captures an above-average, very active early/peak season, plausible in warm SST/La Nina conditions.
- (w=0.10) Will the 2026 season feature warm Atlantic SSTs and ENSO-neutral/La Nina conditions favoring above-normal activity? — Environmental drivers (ocean heat, ENSO state, seasonal forecasts) shift the entire distribution upward or downward.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model from historical totals yields Jun-Aug mean of 1.52 majors, with P(>=1)=0.78.
2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model estimates P(>=2 majors by Aug 31)=0.45.
3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model estimates P(>=3 majors by Aug 31)=0.20.
4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 season (55% chance), predicting only 1-3 major hurricanes for the full season.
5. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | RECENT] Fast, intense El Niño development is expected to raise Atlantic wind shear, suppressing storm formation.
6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Sea surface temperatures in Gulf and Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, which could fuel any storms that do form.
7. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] CSU's June 10 update cut named storm forecast from 13 to 11 citing growing El Niño confidence.
8. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of mid-June 2026, only Tropical Storm Arthur had formed; no major hurricanes recorded and 13 days produced zero activity.
9. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | RECENT] University of Arizona issued aggressive outlook of 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major cyclones for 2026 full season.
10. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Historical season totals 2016-2025 averaged ~4 major Atlantic hurricanes per full season.
11. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | RECENT] First Atlantic hurricane typically forms around August 11; most major hurricanes occur in September-October peak.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.3M
Information gaps:
- No historical base rate of major hurricanes specifically in Jun-Aug window
- No confirmed ENSO state (El Niño vs neutral) as of question open
- NOAA/CSU forecasts cover full season, not Jun-Aug subset
- No real-time tropical activity data past mid-June 2026
Key uncertainties:
- Strength and timing of El Niño suppression vs warm SSTs
- How much of forecasted full-season majors fall before Sept 1
- Whether any single August system reaches Cat 3+
- Divergence between NOAA (below-normal) and Univ. Arizona (active) forecasts
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"0": <prob>,
"1": <prob>,
"2": <prob>,
"3": <prob>,
"4": <prob>,
"5 or more": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model from historical totals yields Jun-Aug mean of 1.52 majors, with P(\u003e=1)=0.78.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model estimates P(\u003e=2 majors by Aug 31)=0.45.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model estimates P(\u003e=3 majors by Aug 31)=0.20.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 season (55% chance), predicting only 1-3 major hurricanes for the full season.\n5. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | RECENT] Fast, intense El Ni\u00f1o development is expected to raise Atlantic wind shear, suppressing storm formation.\n6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Sea surface temperatures in Gulf and Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, which could fuel any storms that do form.\n7. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] CSU\u0027s June 10 update cut named storm forecast from 13 to 11 citing growing El Ni\u00f1o confidence.\n8. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of mid-June 2026, only Tropical Storm Arthur had formed; no major hurricanes recorded and 13 days produced zero activity.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | RECENT] University of Arizona issued aggressive outlook of 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major cyclones for 2026 full season.\n10. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Historical season totals 2016-2025 averaged ~4 major Atlantic hurricanes per full season.\n11. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | RECENT] First Atlantic hurricane typically forms around August 11; most major hurricanes occur in September-October peak.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.3M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical base rate of major hurricanes specifically in Jun-Aug window\n - No confirmed ENSO state (El Ni\u00f1o vs neutral) as of question open\n - NOAA/CSU forecasts cover full season, not Jun-Aug subset\n - No real-time tropical activity data past mid-June 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Strength and timing of El Ni\u00f1o suppression vs warm SSTs\n - How much of forecasted full-season majors fall before Sept 1\n - Whether any single August system reaches Cat 3+\n - Divergence between NOAA (below-normal) and Univ. Arizona (active) forecasts",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nHow many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nThe Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the [Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\n| Year | [Number of Major Atlantic Hurricanes](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php) | |\n| ---- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | - |\n| 2025 | 4 | |\n| 2024 | 5 | |\n| 2023 | 3 | |\n| 2022 | 2 | |\n| 2021 | 4 | |\n| 2020 | 7 | |\n| 2019 | 3 | |\n| 2018 | 2 | |\n| 2017 | 6 | |\n| 2016 | 4 | |\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 43368, \"question_id\": 43364}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur between June 1, 2026, and August 31, 2026, inclusive, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service on September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point before September 2026, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n\nThe question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of September 1, 2026. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm\u0027s intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43368) which opened on 2026-06-15 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Options\n - 0\n - 1\n - 2\n - 3\n - 4\n - 5 or more\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will at least 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Cat 3+) occur between June 1 and August 31, 2026? \u2014 Establishes the baseline floor; early-season major hurricanes by August are common in active years but not guaranteed, s\n- (w=0.35) Will at least 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Cat 3+) occur by August 31, 2026? \u2014 The historical median for the June-August window; central tendency anchor for the distribution.\n- (w=0.25) Will at least 3 major Atlantic hurricanes (Cat 3+) occur by August 31, 2026? \u2014 Captures an above-average, very active early/peak season, plausible in warm SST/La Nina conditions.\n- (w=0.10) Will the 2026 season feature warm Atlantic SSTs and ENSO-neutral/La Nina conditions favoring above-normal activity? \u2014 Environmental drivers (ocean heat, ENSO state, seasonal forecasts) shift the entire distribution upward or downward.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model from historical totals yields Jun-Aug mean of 1.52 majors, with P(\u003e=1)=0.78.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model estimates P(\u003e=2 majors by Aug 31)=0.45.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model estimates P(\u003e=3 majors by Aug 31)=0.20.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 season (55% chance), predicting only 1-3 major hurricanes for the full season.\n5. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | RECENT] Fast, intense El Ni\u00f1o development is expected to raise Atlantic wind shear, suppressing storm formation.\n6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Sea surface temperatures in Gulf and Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, which could fuel any storms that do form.\n7. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] CSU\u0027s June 10 update cut named storm forecast from 13 to 11 citing growing El Ni\u00f1o confidence.\n8. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of mid-June 2026, only Tropical Storm Arthur had formed; no major hurricanes recorded and 13 days produced zero activity.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | RECENT] University of Arizona issued aggressive outlook of 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major cyclones for 2026 full season.\n10. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Historical season totals 2016-2025 averaged ~4 major Atlantic hurricanes per full season.\n11. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | RECENT] First Atlantic hurricane typically forms around August 11; most major hurricanes occur in September-October peak.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.3M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical base rate of major hurricanes specifically in Jun-Aug window\n - No confirmed ENSO state (El Ni\u00f1o vs neutral) as of question open\n - NOAA/CSU forecasts cover full season, not Jun-Aug subset\n - No real-time tropical activity data past mid-June 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Strength and timing of El Ni\u00f1o suppression vs warm SSTs\n - How much of forecasted full-season majors fall before Sept 1\n - Whether any single August system reaches Cat 3+\n - Divergence between NOAA (below-normal) and Univ. Arizona (active) forecasts\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"0\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"1\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"2\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"3\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"4\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"5 or more\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"probabilities": {
"0": 0.27,
"1": 0.35,
"2": 0.22,
"3": 0.1,
"4": 0.04,
"5 or more": 0.02
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves September 1, 2026, covering only the June 1\u2013August 31 window; as of mid-June 2026 only Tropical Storm Arthur has formed with no majors yet, leaving ~2.5 months. (b) The status quo/central outcome is 1 major hurricane: most majors historically arrive in the Sept-Oct peak (first hurricane ~Aug 11), so the early window typically yields a low count, and the Poisson mean for this window is ~1.5 but pushed lower by El Ni\u00f1o suppression. (c) A surprising-but-plausible outcome would be 4+ majors, requiring an unusually fast, intense early season despite the developing El Ni\u00f1o wind shear\u2014warm SSTs could fuel this, but it is unlikely. NOAA\u0027s below-normal forecast (1-3 majors full season) and CSU\u0027s downward revision both signal suppression, while warm Gulf/Atlantic SSTs add modest upside; I weight a mean near 1.3 majors for this subset. This yields a distribution peaked at 1, with substantial mass on 0 and 2, and a thin upper tail.",
"top_option": "1"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "climate",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate a Poisson distribution for June-August major hurricanes from historical season totals adjusted for the early-season fraction, then update with 2026 preseason forecasts and environmental conditions; combine threshold sub-questions plus the environmental driver via weighted average to form the multiple-choice count distribution.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will at least 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Cat 3+) occur between June 1 and August 31, 2026?",
"rationale": "Establishes the baseline floor; early-season major hurricanes by August are common in active years but not guaranteed, so this distinguishes a 0-count tail outcome.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will at least 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Cat 3+) occur by August 31, 2026?",
"rationale": "The historical median for the June-August window; central tendency anchor for the distribution.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will at least 3 major Atlantic hurricanes (Cat 3+) occur by August 31, 2026?",
"rationale": "Captures an above-average, very active early/peak season, plausible in warm SST/La Nina conditions.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the 2026 season feature warm Atlantic SSTs and ENSO-neutral/La Nina conditions favoring above-normal activity?",
"rationale": "Environmental drivers (ocean heat, ENSO state, seasonal forecasts) shift the entire distribution upward or downward.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\nfrom scipy import stats\n# Note: table gives full-season totals; we need June-Aug subset. Approximate Jun-Aug share.\n# Full-season major hurricane counts 2016-2025\nfull=[4,5,3,2,4,7,3,2,6,4]\nprint(\u0027Full-season mean\u0027,np.mean(full),\u0027std\u0027,np.std(full))\n# Historically a substantial fraction of major hurricanes occur Sep-Nov (peak Sept).\n# Jun-Aug typically accounts for roughly 30-45% of season majors.\nfrac=0.38\njunaug_lambda=np.mean(full)*frac\nprint(\u0027Approx Jun-Aug mean majors\u0027,junaug_lambda)\nlam=junaug_lambda\nfor k in range(0,7):\n print(k, round(stats.poisson.pmf(k,lam),3))\nprint(\u0027P\u003e=1\u0027,round(1-stats.poisson.cdf(0,lam),3))\nprint(\u0027P\u003e=2\u0027,round(1-stats.poisson.cdf(1,lam),3))\nprint(\u0027P\u003e=3\u0027,round(1-stats.poisson.cdf(2,lam),3))",
"description": "Estimate Jun-Aug major hurricane count distribution via Poisson using historical season totals and a typical early-season fraction."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"2026 Atlantic hurricane season",
"Atlantic hurricane season major hurricanes by month",
"List of Category 3 Atlantic hurricanes"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find 2026 Atlantic hurricane season preseason forecasts (NOAA, CSU/Klotzbach, TSR), current Atlantic sea surface temperatures, ENSO/La Nina status for summer 2026, and any major hurricanes that have already formed in June-August 2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"2026 Atlantic hurricane season major hurricanes so far",
"NOAA 2026 hurricane season forecast above normal",
"Atlantic SST ENSO La Nina summer 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-06-19T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nThe Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the [Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\n| Year | [Number of Major Atlantic Hurricanes](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php) | |\n| ---- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | - |\n| 2025 | 4 | |\n| 2024 | 5 | |\n| 2023 | 3 | |\n| 2022 | 2 | |\n| 2021 | 4 | |\n| 2020 | 7 | |\n| 2019 | 3 | |\n| 2018 | 2 | |\n| 2017 | 6 | |\n| 2016 | 4 | |\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 43368, \"question_id\": 43364}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur between June 1, 2026, and August 31, 2026, inclusive, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service on September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point before September 2026, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n\nThe question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of September 1, 2026. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm\u0027s intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43368) which opened on 2026-06-15 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"options": [
"0",
"1",
"2",
"3",
"4",
"5 or more"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.3M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.26,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate Jun-Aug major hurricane count distribution via Pois",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.91,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 40.88,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 47.55,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Poisson model from historical totals yields Jun-Aug mean of 1.52 majors, with P(\u003e=1)=0.78.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Poisson model estimates P(\u003e=2 majors by Aug 31)=0.45.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Poisson model estimates P(\u003e=3 majors by Aug 31)=0.20.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 season (55% chance), predicting only 1-3 major hurricanes for the full season.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Fast, intense El Ni\u00f1o development is expected to raise Atlantic wind shear, suppressing storm formation.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Sea surface temperatures in Gulf and Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, which could fuel any storms that do form.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "CSU\u0027s June 10 update cut named storm forecast from 13 to 11 citing growing El Ni\u00f1o confidence.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "As of mid-June 2026, only Tropical Storm Arthur had formed; no major hurricanes recorded and 13 days produced zero activity.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "University of Arizona issued aggressive outlook of 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major cyclones for 2026 full season.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Historical season totals 2016-2025 averaged ~4 major Atlantic hurricanes per full season.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "First Atlantic hurricane typically forms around August 11; most major hurricanes occur in September-October peak.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No historical base rate of major hurricanes specifically in Jun-Aug window",
"No confirmed ENSO state (El Ni\u00f1o vs neutral) as of question open",
"NOAA/CSU forecasts cover full season, not Jun-Aug subset",
"No real-time tropical activity data past mid-June 2026"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Strength and timing of El Ni\u00f1o suppression vs warm SSTs",
"How much of forecasted full-season majors fall before Sept 1",
"Whether any single August system reaches Cat 3+",
"Divergence between NOAA (below-normal) and Univ. Arizona (active) forecasts"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 16.74,
"plan": 18.52,
"research": 47.57,
"synthesis": 17.79
}
}