Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $6.50?

**Which series resolves this?** The contract says only "Diesel Price." I could not open Kalshi's rules page. The Kalshi diesel markets I saw appear to track the AAA national average, but I did not confirm that. The EIA weekly on-highway price is the other candidate. Both are shown below. - [2026-10-13] AAA national average diesel was $6.28 a gallon on Tuesday, up 72% from a year earlier. That is about 22 cents below the $6.50 strike. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/13/trump-putin-zelenskyy-russia-ukraine-diesel-oil-price.html (from search snippet; page fetch failed) - [2026-10-12] CBS reports AAA's record was $6.53 on Sept. 22, and the average was $6.27 on Monday. CBS also notes California averages $8.38. https://cbsnews.com/news/trump-russian-diesel-imports-prices - [2026-10-05] The EIA weekly on-highway diesel price was $6.199, down from $6.382 on Sept 28. The record was $6.529 on Sept 21. Weekly readings: Sep 7 $5.967, Sep 14 $6.285. https://weeklydiesel.com/history/2026/ - [2026-10-14] The next EIA release is scheduled for Oct 14, per the EIA's own scheduling note. Later Monday readings (Oct 19, Oct 26) will follow. The Oct 26 reading is the last EIA print before Oct 31. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/eia-weekly-fuel-update-gasoline-and-diesel-prices-ease-on-october-6-2026/ - [2026-10-09] NY Harbor ULSD futures closed at $4.67 on Oct 9. They had ranged from $4.50 to $4.96 over Sep 29–Oct 9, and were about $5.01–5.26 in mid-September. Wholesale is well below the September peak, and retail follows wholesale with a lag of a week or two. https://fueldataportal.com/data/ulsd-diesel-futures - [2026-10-13] Brent was about $105.2–105.9, down about 1%. That ended a three-session rally, even as Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed a third tanker hit in Hormuz in two days. The claim is unverified. Brent was about $105 on Oct 8 as well, so crude is roughly flat over the past month. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-hormuz.html - [2026-10-09/12] Trump announced a Russia diesel supply deal on Oct 9. Analysts quoted by CBS expect little effect, because the volumes are small against global demand and Ukrainian strikes have hit Russian refining. On Oct 13 CNBC described the deal as covering about 10 days of U.S. demand. One CBS source says refined products are "barely half of prewar levels." https://cbsnews.com/news/trump-russian-diesel-imports-prices - [2026-10-05] Trump signed an executive order letting tax-exempt dyed diesel be used on highways. Kalshi traders expected the national average to fall to $6.20 or lower. That is a crypto-news report, not Kalshi itself. https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-traders-us-diesel-prices-620/ - [2026-09-22] Trump backed a diesel export ban. CNBC says he later dropped it because it could raise gasoline prices. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/gas-prices-on-track-to-break-record-for-most-days-above-4-a-gallon-chart-of-the-day-172053108.html - [2026-10-0x] The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, in a version of unclear date, says retail distillate prices will stay above $6/gal in October and then come down gradually. It also says inventories stay below the 2021–2025 average. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php - [2026-10-07/08] Oilprice.com says distillate inventories were about 13% below the five-year average by mid-September. Iranian tanker attacks in Hormuz are escalating, and a Gulf Coast storm prompted production shut-ins on Oct 8. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Diesel-Prices-Are-So-Much-Higher-Than-Gasoline.html - [2026-10-13] Other Kalshi diesel markets: the year-end 2026 market showed 57% for "above $6.40" and 38% for "above $6.60". The snapshot is about 19 days old, and the listed percentages are ambiguous. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdieselye/diesel-prices-at-year-end/kxdieselye-26dec31 BOTTOM LINE: Retail diesel is about $6.27–6.28 (AAA) or $6.20 (EIA, Oct 5). That is below $6.50 and has fallen from the Sept 21–22 record of $6.53. Wholesale ULSD is also off its mid-September high. A rise above $6.50 by Oct 31 would need a fresh wholesale spike, for example from Hormuz or Gulf Coast refinery disruption. The latest ULSD futures figures are from Oct 9. NOT FOUND: the Kalshi contract's exact resolution source and rules. Oct 12–13 ULSD settlements. The EIA Oct 12 reading, which is not out until Oct 14. A direct fetch of the CNBC page (it failed).

- [2026-10-13] AAA national average diesel was $6.2787. A week earlier it was $6.3151, a month earlier $6.2040, and a year earlier $3.6533. The $6.50 strike is about 22 cents (3.5%) above spot, with 18 days to go. https://rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-10-13] GasBuddy's national diesel average fell 5.9 cents in a week to $6.248. De Haan said the trend is "cautiously in the right direction" but flagged hurricane-hit refineries and geopolitical risk. https://rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-10-09] The record AAA diesel average is about $6.53 on Sept 21–22, 2026. It beat the June 2022 record of $5.8159 only on Sept 4 ($5.85). Prices have since eased about 25 cents. The $6.50 strike is roughly at the all-time high. Sources: https://cbsnews.com/news/trump-russian-diesel-imports-prices and https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/national-average-price-diesel-hits-new-record-high-amid-iran-conflict - [2026-10-05] Macrotrends (EIA weekly series) shows $6.20 on Oct 5 and a 52-week range of $3.46 to $6.53. Its all-time high is Sept 21, 2026, and the series dates back to 2007. The $6.50 level has been reached only in a brief window around Sept 21–24. https://www.macrotrends.net/4582/us-diesel-fuel-prices - [2026-10-13] The EIA's October STEO (released Oct 6) puts September's retail diesel average at $6.29. It forecasts retail distillate "above $6/gal in October" and then a gradual decline, as crude eases and inventories recover slightly. The 2026 average is forecast at $5.19, up from the previous $5.07. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-10-13] CNBC: Trump's Russia diesel deal (300k t now, 500k t in November) is small relative to demand. Goldman estimates it would cut wholesale diesel by only $1–2 per barrel. Diesel futures barely moved. Analysts say the structural problem is damaged refining capacity in Russia and the Middle East. Russian refinery outages are about 3 million bpd higher than a year ago. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/13/trump-putin-zelenskyy-russia-ukraine-diesel-oil-price.html - [2026-10-11] Upside risks: a third tanker was reportedly hit in the Strait of Hormuz on Oct 10. The IEA is urging accelerated diesel stock releases, with a Governing Board meeting on Oct 15. The G7 pledged a 100 million barrel release, with diesel front-loaded in the first 20 days. Winter heating demand is seen adding upward pressure. https://rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article and https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/gas-prices-on-track-to-break-record-for-most-days-above-4-a-gallon-chart-of-the-day-172053108.html - [2026-10-09] ICE gasoil was about $1,497/t intraday on Oct 9, roughly double its late-February level of $753/t. Brent was about $103. Moscow's diesel export ban for producers runs to Oct 31. Brent was about $106 and WTI about $94 on Oct 13. Sources: https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/diesel-shortage-october-2026 and https://rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-10-05] Trump signed an executive order on Oct 5 letting tax-exempt dyed diesel be used on highways. It is a partial federal tax holiday; the federal tax is 24.4 cents per gallon. Kalshi traders reportedly expected diesel at or below $6.20 after it. That is a crypto-outlet report, so treat it as unverified. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/05/business/trump-diesel-prices-executive-order and https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-traders-us-diesel-prices-620/ - [2026-10-13] Sibling Kalshi snapshots are of uncertain date and may be stale. The Election Day (Nov 3) diesel market showed about 59% for above $6.20 and 68% for above $6.00. The year-end 2026 market, seen about 19 days earlier, showed about 57% above $6.40 and 38% above $6.60. https://kalshi.com/category/economics/oil-and-energy and https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdieselye/diesel-prices-at-year-end/kxdieselye-26dec31 - [2026-09-22] Volatility reference class: diesel rose from $5.60 at the end of August to $6.285 by mid-September, a 12% jump in two weeks. It then peaked at $6.53 and has drifted down about 4% over three weeks. Moves of 3.5% or more in 18 days are common in this regime, and in 2022 prices peaked and then fell. https://www.topspeed.com/diesel-gas-price-divergence-2026/ - [2026-10-07] The analogous June 2022 record ($5.82) was followed by a steady decline. The current spike is supply-driven (refinery damage, Hormuz and Red Sea disruption) and has not yet broken above its September high. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/07/economy/us-truckers-diesel-prices BOTTOM LINE: Diesel sits about 22 cents below the strike and 25 cents below its record, with a mild downward drift over three weeks. The EIA expects a gradual decline, but the supply shocks are ongoing and could push the price above $6.50, which would be a new all-time high. A YES outcome needs a new record within 18 days, so it is the less likely side, though geopolitical tail risk is substantial. NOT FOUND: the live Kalshi strike ladder for Oct 31 (deliberately not searched). Futures-implied (ULSD) price paths. A verified historical base rate for 3.5% rises in 18 days (only inferred from this period's volatility). The exact settlement source named in the rules (AAA is presumed).

YES means: the Diesel Price on Oct 31, 2026 (presumably the AAA national average) is above $6.50. That would be a new all-time high, since the AAA record is $6.5276 set on Sept 22. - [2026-10-13] ULSD futures are rising again. On Oct 13 at 10:45 EDT they were $4.8185, up 9.5¢ (2.0%), after a Monday settle of $4.7232. The intraday low-to-high swing was about 17¢. FreightWaves says the futures trend over the past week is higher, and the Russia deal did not move the market. Futures had bottomed at $4.50 on Oct 2. A retail price of $6.50 needs wholesale to climb well above that. https://freightwaves.com/news/russian-diesel-deal-having-limited-impact-if-any-on-prices - [2026-10-13] AAA's 17-day daily decline ended on Friday Oct 9 at $6.2785. Since then it has moved up and down slightly, and Tuesday was "largely unchanged." The slide has stalled, so the downward drift is no longer clearly continuing. The 17-day run started at $6.5276 on Sept 22. https://freightwaves.com/news/russian-diesel-deal-having-limited-impact-if-any-on-prices - [2026-10-13] The DTS.USA SONAR retail diesel average was $6.32, above AAA's $6.28. Analyst Ellen Wald said prices are "creeping higher and higher" and that any attempts to cut them that are not new supply "don't really last." The Hormuz flow uncertainty is itself a source of volatility. Paul Sankey put the military and shuttle cost of getting ships through at about $35/b. https://freightwaves.com/news/russian-diesel-deal-having-limited-impact-if-any-on-prices - [2026-10-13] The Russia deal is small against demand. The 300kt now is about 2.2M barrels. The November tranche is about 3.7M barrels, against US distillate use of about 3.65M b/d and OECD diesel use of about 13M b/d. CSIS's Kotkin called it "a drop in the bucket." So the main bearish catalyst of Oct 9 is structurally weak. https://freightwaves.com/news/russian-diesel-deal-having-limited-impact-if-any-on-prices - [2026-10-09] Hurricane Isaias shut in about 1.3M b/d of Gulf output, roughly 63% of Gulf production. Analyst Lipow flagged risks to Chevron Pascagoula and Vertex Mobile/Saraland refineries (2.4% of US refining capacity). He said US diesel stocks are at their lowest for the time of year since EIA records began in 1982. A Mizuho analyst called it "the worst timing in 25 years." https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/hurricane-isaias-gulf-mexico-oil-refinery.html - [2026-10-09] The downside case for this storm is mild. Enverus's Carl Larry said that if the storm passes quickly, prices could rise only "a few cents." A YES path therefore needs actual refinery damage or an extended outage, not just the storm itself. https://www.wsls.com/business/2026/10/09/hurricane-isaias-could-nudge-fuel-prices-higher-if-gulf-of-mexico-refineries-lose-power/ - [2026-10-09] About 14% of US refining capacity lies near the storm's path. Refineries run at about 95% utilization, with no spare capacity. Mizuho says a forced refinery outage could expose the market to restricted diesel exports, which is a policy lever Trump already floated on Sept 22. https://finance.biggo.com/news/fb8c0f96-9846-4050-858b-5d19d1f2cbf1 - [2026-10-13] Tail-risk scale: the AAA record of $6.5276 came with ULSD futures at about $5.0–5.26 in mid-September (per colleagues' figure). To get back above $6.50, wholesale probably needs to retest roughly $5.0+. That is about 20–30¢ above the Oct 13 intraday level. The Oct 8 intraday print above $4.88 shows it can do that in two days. https://freightwaves.com/news/russian-diesel-deal-having-limited-impact-if-any-on-prices - [2026-10-13] The EIA's Oct 12 weekly reading was delayed to Oct 14 because of the Columbus Day holiday. FreightWaves expects another decline, so it is not a YES signal. If the EIA series is the resolution source, the last print before Oct 31 is Oct 26. https://freightwaves.com/news/russian-diesel-deal-having-limited-impact-if-any-on-prices - [2026-10-06] A reference point for the dispersion: the EIA STEO and the market both expected a gradual decline. The Kalshi year-end 2026 ladder showed a 38% reading near $6.60 about 19 days ago. That implies traders priced a real chance of a new high later in the year. The listed percentages are ambiguous. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdieselye/diesel-prices-at-year-end/kxdieselye-26dec31 BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely path to YES is a refinery or Hormuz shock that sends ULSD futures back above about $5.00 by roughly Oct 20–24, so that retail passes the Sept 22 record. Since retail lags wholesale by one to two weeks, that rise has to start soon. Prerequisites: Isaias or other refinery damage, a Hormuz escalation, or Russian or Ukrainian disruption, all on top of record-low stocks and a retail decline that has already stalled. Without wholesale at least about 25¢ higher, retail is unlikely to reach $6.50. NOT FOUND: Kalshi's exact resolution source and rules. Oct 13 ULSD settlement and any post-storm refinery damage report. A fetchable CNBC page (the Oct 9 fetch failed). The EIA Oct 12 reading, which is not yet out.

YES means: the Kalshi "Diesel Price" for October 31, 2026 (presumed to be the AAA national average, which I could not confirm) prints strictly above $6.50. - [2026-10-13] ULSD futures needed to reach $6.50 retail. On Oct 5, the pump price was $6.199 against a ULSD settle of $4.545, a gap of about $1.65. At the Sept 21–22 record of $6.53, ULSD was roughly $5.0–5.26, a gap of about $1.3–1.5. Holding a $1.5–1.65 gap, $6.50 retail needs ULSD of about $4.85–5.00, which is 10–25 cents above the Oct 13 settle of $4.751. The NYMEX ULSD contract that settled at $4.751 on Oct 13 is the November one. It expires Oct 30, so the front month rolls before Oct 31. https://worldoilmonitor.com/diesel-market - [2026-10-12] ULSD settled at $4.696 on Oct 12, down 4.2 cents. The Oct 13 close was $4.751, up 2.8 cents. After the Russia-deal drop on Oct 9, wholesale has been flat to lower than the Sept 29–30 level of $4.90–4.96. Retail trailing wholesale by 1–2 weeks therefore points to a flat-to-lower path, not a climb. https://worldoilmonitor.com/diesel-market - [2026-10-09] ULSD fell 4.61% (22.7 cents) to $4.73 on the US–Russia deal. Part of the cause was a report that China would lift its de facto refined-fuel export ban, which removes a bullish supply fear. Retail had not yet absorbed that drop as of Oct 12–13. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/09/ulsd-futures-fall-4-us-russia-diesel - [2026-10-09] EIA distillate stocks were steady at 105.1M bbl, with no draw that week. They are 13.5% below last year, but the week showed no worsening. Exports rose to 1.764M bpd, which supports the bull side but has not yet moved the price. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/09/ulsd-futures-fall-4-us-russia-diesel - [2026-10-12] AAA's weekly note said diesel was down in 48 states, with the national average at $6.32 for the week, down 12 cents. AAA credits more Middle East crude exports and the G7 stock release for lower crude. The pump average had already backed off the record. https://info.oregon.aaa.com/gas-and-diesel-prices-dip-after-record-setting-september/ - [2026-10-05] The AAA daily series was $6.32 on Oct 5 and $6.2787 on Oct 13. It fell about 4 cents in 8 days, a pace of roughly half a cent a day. A $6.50 print on Oct 31 needs a reversal of about 22 cents. That is a swing from falling to rising, with the recent trend running against it. https://en.macromicro.me/series/23010/aaa-daily-national-average-gasoline-prices-diesel - [2026-10-05] The EIA series is $6.529 on Sept 21, $6.382 on Sept 28 and $6.199 on Oct 5. It dropped 33 cents in two weeks, and the Oct 14 print should show a further easing. If the contract uses the EIA series, the last print before Oct 31 is Oct 26. EIA prints are typically a few cents below AAA's. The needed EIA move from $6.20 is about 30 cents. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ - [2026-10-13] Brent is about $105 and was $104.72 on Oct 9, so crude has been flat. The ULSD crack is $94 a barrel, near the top of its past-year range of $26–115. The mechanism for a rise is a crack spike, not crude. The crack has been rising and falling around the Russia-deal headlines, not trending. https://worldoilmonitor.com/diesel-market - [2026-10-06] The EIA October STEO has September's retail average at $6.29 and forecasts a gradual decline after October as crude eases and inventories recover. The official baseline therefore contradicts a new record in late October. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php - [2026-10-09] The Hurricane Isaias shut-ins cut about 1.3M bpd of crude. The effect on ULSD was bearish or neutral that day, since crude edged down and ULSD fell. The shut-ins did not lift diesel on that Friday. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/09/ulsd-futures-fall-4-us-russia-diesel - [2026-10-05] The Oct 5 executive order lets dyed diesel be used on highways. It cuts demand for taxed diesel at the margin and lowers effective costs. The reported Kalshi lean toward $6.20 or lower on Nov 3 came from a crypto outlet, so it is unverified. https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-traders-us-diesel-prices-620/ - [2026-10-12] The question needs a strict "above $6.50", which is a new all-time high. The record is $6.53 and was set only once, on Sept 22, after a 12% two-week run. The market reached the strike for about a day and then retreated about 25 cents. The sticking point is that the series would have to exceed its prior peak at the very last print. https://info.oregon.aaa.com/gas-and-diesel-prices-dip-after-record-setting-september/ BOTTOM LINE: Retail is 22 cents below the strike and falling, wholesale ULSD is at about $4.75 against the roughly $4.85–5.00 that a $6.50 retail price would need, and the official forecast is a gradual decline. A Yes needs a fresh supply shock within 18 days that takes retail to a new record on the final print, so the status-quo path of no further change resolves No. NOT FOUND: the Kalshi contract's exact resolution source and rules; Oct 14 EIA print; Oct 13 AAA/EIA retail beyond what colleagues reported; a wholesale-to-retail lag regression for this episode.