Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by 25 bp to 3¾–4%. It was the first hike since 2023 and followed five straight holds. The statement said "The Committee will deliver price stability." https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-10-12] The Fed's open-market page was last updated 2026-09-16, so the resolution source shows the upper bound at 4.00%. That is the baseline for January. The meeting is scheduled for Jan 26–27, 2027. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm - [2026-09-16] The September dot plot put the 2026 rate at about 4.1%, which implies another hike this year. For 2027, eight dots show another 25 bp. Four officials expect two more hikes this year, and more officials expect two hikes in 2027 than one. Three expect one cut in 2027 and one expects several cuts. Core PCE for 2026 was projected at 3.4%. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-16] Chair Warsh said "inflation is too high and has been for too long". Before the September meeting, three members had dissented in July in favour of a hike. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-10-07/08] The September FOMC minutes were released. Most officials expect another hike this year. Several see policy as too loose or only mildly restrictive. Many see underlying inflation stuck at 2.5–3%. Key officials say the Fed can take time before moving again. Futures price a hold at the Oct 28 meeting and a hike in December. https://abc7ny.com/story/fed-minutes-another-rate-hike-coming-year-combat-persistent-inflation/19929930 - [2026-10-12] Cleveland Fed President Hammack, a 2026 voter, said she prefers smaller, quicker adjustments over waiting, and that a restrictive stance is appropriate. Per CME FedWatch, the Oct 28 hold probability was above 78% and the December hike probability was nearly 88%. August PCE was 3.4% year over year, with core at 3.0%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html - [2026-09-24ish] Philadelphia Fed's Paulson said "some modest further tightening may be warranted". NY Fed's Williams said another hike by year-end may be appropriate. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-us-fed-officials-see-rates-likely-rising-to-curb-high-inflation/ - [2026-10-09] Futures priced the effective fed funds rate at about 4.12% for January 2027, against 3.88% now (+24 bp). The pricing a week and two weeks earlier was 4.14% and 4.23%. That is consistent with roughly one hike by January, mostly in December. https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds - [~2026-10-03] defirate (secondary, aggregating prediction markets) showed a 37% hike chance for the Jan 27, 2027 meeting. It also showed 72% for another hike before 2027, and 65% for Dec 9 alone. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [~2026-09-18] Investing.com's CME-based monitor, from a stale snapshot about 25 days old, showed a Jan 27, 2027 distribution of 3.75–4.00 at 1.9% and 4.00–4.25 at 14.7%. The page was cut off, so higher brackets are unseen. This is relevant only because the market was likely to be at 4.00–4.25 or higher by January. https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor - [2026-10-07] The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed the one-year inflation outlook at 3.9%, the highest since May 2023. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/inflation-fears-on-the-rise-as-one-year-outlook-in-fed-survey-hits-highest-since-may-2023.html - Scheduled before the question closes: Oct 27–28 FOMC (decision Oct 28), Dec 8–9 FOMC with a new SEP, then the Jan 26–27, 2027 meeting. Data to watch includes CPI and PCE releases. The US midterms are about seven weeks away. Trump has criticised the hike. https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/ BOTTOM LINE: The Fed is in a hiking cycle at 3.75–4.00%, and markets expect a hold in October and a hike in December. The January question is whether a second or third hike lands at that meeting, rather than whether one is merely delayed. The January hike odds seen (about 15–37%) came from stale or secondary sources. NOT FOUND: A current CME FedWatch reading for the Jan 27, 2027 meeting alone, the Polymarket sibling brackets, the Sept 2026 CPI release date and result, and the October jobs data.

Context: the target range is 3.75–4.00% after a 25 bp hike on 2026-09-16. The January 26–27, 2027 meeting is the fourth meeting after that. The question resolves on the change in the upper bound at that meeting alone. Hikes at the October or December 2026 meetings do not count, but they raise or lower the odds of another move in January. - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12–0 for a 25 bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023. 16 of 19 participants expect at least one more hike in 2026. For 2027, only eight dots show another 25 bp hike, and four participants show cuts. Schwab says the median is 4.1% for both end-2026 and end-2027. Warsh was hawkish: "inflation is too high." https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-16] Historical reference class, from Schwab: the Fed rarely hikes only once. The last true "one and done" hike was March 1997, followed by a cut in September 1998. That supports hikes clustering, but not necessarily at any single meeting. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-16] The Sept SEP medians imply no net change in 2027 after one more 2026 hike. Core PCE is projected at 3.4% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2027. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-10-13] CME-based tool (Investing.com snippet, not fetched; the page returned 403 on fetch): 80.5% hold and 19.5% hike at the Oct 28 meeting. The December cumulative distribution is 16.5% at 3.75–4.00, 68.0% at 4.00–4.25 and 15.5% at 4.25–4.50. https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor - [2026-10-09] Fed funds futures price an effective rate of about 4.12% for Jan 2027, against 3.88% now. That is about +24 bp cumulative by January, and roughly 4.7% by Oct 2027. These are cumulative levels, so they do not isolate the January meeting by itself. https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds - [2026-10-02] Kalshi and Polymarket cut October hike odds to about 18%, from about 64% a week earlier, after a weak September jobs report. Odds are volatile (swings of 40+ points in a week). https://predictionnews.com/story/kalshi-traders-slash-october-fed-hike-odds-to-18-after-weak-jobs-report - [2026-10-10] Cross-venue October odds: hold 84.5% on Kalshi, 83.5% on Polymarket and 82% on futures. The venues are tightly aligned. https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/october-2026 - [2026-09-30] A Polymarket "Fed decisions (Oct–Jan)" market, as scraped, shows Pause-Hike-Pause at 56%, Pause-Hike-Hike at 13% and Hike-Pause-Hike at 50% (the 50% is from a separate, undated scrape). These are path-dependent sibling markets. A "hike in January" outcome is covered only by paths ending in Hike. https://polymarket.com/predictions/fed-rates - [2026-09-30] A scraped Kalshi/Polymarket aggregator lists "Fed decision in Jan 2027" at Hike 25bps 51% and Maintain 44%. This is stale, from the post-hike, pre-jobs-report period, and its date is uncertain. https://predictmarketcap.com/events/fed-rate-hike - [2026-09-30] Kalshi, end-2027 fed funds: above 4.25% at about 61–64%, above 4.50% at about 39–49%, above 3.75% at 88%. This is consistent with one to two more hikes by the end of 2027. https://kalshi.com/category/economics - [2026-09-23] The CNBC report said Barr, who voted for the hike, said the Fed was "out of position". St. Louis Fed's Musalem and Boston's Collins see a need for further hikes. Inflation prints were hot, and 2-year yields reached 4.9%. There was speculation the Fed might wait until after the November midterms to hike in December. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/market-sees-next-fed-hike-in-october-following-barr-comments-hot-inflation.html - [2026-10-12] A Schwab headline reads "Cool Job Market May Help Fed". I did not read it. The weak September jobs report is the main recent dovish input. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/jobs-wages-and-feds-inflation-fight BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is a Fed in an early hiking cycle with a clear but front-loaded hawkish path. Futures price about 24 bp cumulative by January, with most of that priced by December. The January-specific hike probability is therefore lower than the cumulative hike odds, and it depends mainly on whether October or December delivers a hike. Market odds have swung sharply on single data releases. NOT FOUND: A clean January-only hike probability from CME FedWatch. The Investing.com page was blocked, and the Jan 2027 figures in its snippets differ between snapshots. I also did not find the current live Polymarket price for this contract, as instructed, or a primary-source expert survey (such as Bloomberg or WSJ) for January.

YES means: the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target range by exactly 25 bp at its Jan 26–27, 2027 meeting. The upper bound is 4.00% now. A 50+ bp hike would likely be a separate bracket. - [2026-10-13] The Polymarket January market, fetched, showed 25 bp increase 33%, no change 65%, 50+ bp increase 1.7% and 25 bp decrease about 2.5%. Its 65% hold figure is unchanged from Sept 18 (34% hike), so the hike case has been stable despite the weak jobs print. Prices are live and may move. https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502 - [2026-10-13] Kalshi lists the January 2027 market at 33% for a 25 bp hike, 55% for hold and 3% for a cut (snippet, about 20 days old). Robinhood, which carries Kalshi-style contracts, showed hold 56¢, hike 21¢, and hike >25 bp 7¢ (undated). The hike probability across venues falls in a range of roughly 21–37%. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-27jan - [2026-10-09] Natixis, a dissenting dovish voice, still "pencils in" another hike in December or January. It cites Warsh's focus on "underlying inflation" and the breadth of inflation. So even a bearish-on-inflation shop leaves January as a live date. It also expects a hold in October partly to avoid hiking just before the early-November midterms. That is a calendar reason to push the next hike past the election, into December or January. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-09/september-cpi-should-be-line-and-last-months-fed-rate-hike-may-be-only-one - [2026-10-08] Waller said further hikes "need not come at consecutive meetings." That is the mechanism for a staggered path: hold in October, hike in December or January, with the cadence set by data. It does not require a hike every meeting. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october - [2026-10-01] Reuters reported Williams and Jefferson ruled out a back-to-back October hike and said "no need for urgency." Brokerages moved to a single December hike. That leaves the Dec 8–9 and Jan 26–27 meetings as the next live dates. If December is skipped on data or politics, January becomes the natural catch-up meeting. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/fed-officials-wash-away-market-bets-october-rate-increase - [2026-10-07] September CPI is due Oct 14. Consensus is headline about 3.6–3.7% y/y, up from 3.4%, with core CPI 2.4–2.5% y/y. Core CPI was 0.3% m/m in August, led by services. Headline is driven by energy since the US–Iran conflict began. UMich one-year expectations were 4.6% in September. A hot core print would revive the hike path. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook - [2026-10-07] Minutes said almost all participants saw inflation risks tilted to the upside. Many saw a higher rate path as prudent "insurance." Some warned that high inflation could entrench expectations. Participants said labor-market risks had diminished and were broadly balanced. This is the institutional case for continued tightening past one more hike. https://www.anews.com.tr/economy/2026/10/07/most-fed-officials-see-need-for-another-rate-hike-before-end-of-2026 - [2026-10-12] Chase's summary of Fed comments says officials have turned more hawkish since September. Barr (Sept 23) said "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed," and Collins said "modest further tightening may be warranted." JPMorgan Private Bank's Rahbari said the debate has shifted to a "conventional rate hiking cycle." https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-officials-hawkish-tone-ahead-of-october-2026-fomc-meeting - [2026-10-02] The weak September payrolls (+29k, unemployment 4.2%) were offset by labor-force gains. Household employment rose 406k, participation rose to 61.8%, and U-6 fell to 7.6%, its lowest since January 2025. Wage growth was 3.0% y/y. The weak headline is therefore not clearly a loosening labor market, which weakens the dovish reading. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html - [2026-09-16] SEP detail: 12 of 18 projections average 4.125% for 2026, four see 50 bp more this year, and two see none. A 4.125% median is consistent with one hike by year-end. If the Fed instead delays it to January, the January meeting is where that hike lands. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/fed-officials-forecasts-project-one-more-rate-hike-to-come-in-2026-183856618.html - [2026-10-09] The effective funds rate was priced at 4.12% for Jan 2027 on Oct 9, against 4.14% a week earlier and 4.23% two weeks earlier. That is about one hike by January, with some probability of a second. https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds - [2026-10-13] The only dated central-bank scenario of a delayed hike I found is Goldman. In an earlier episode (about 57 days ago, before the September hike), Goldman argued markets were too hawkish and a hike slipped from December to January 2027. Goldman now "leans December," per Mitrade (Oct 10). https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/odds-fed-rate-hike-fall-083935313.html BOTTOM LINE: The most likely YES path is a hold in October, then either a December hike followed by a second hike in January because core inflation stays at or above 3% and the Fed adopts a "conventional" hiking cadence, or a delay of the next hike to January because of the midterms and soft payrolls. Both need hot September–December core data, and the Fed has said it will not hike consecutively out of urgency. NOT FOUND: The Sept 2026 CPI result (due Oct 14, after today), a CME FedWatch reading for Jan 2027 alone, and the Oct jobs-report details beyond those above. No sell-side forecast explicitly calls for a January hike. Natixis's "December or January" is the nearest.

YES means: the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target range by exactly 25 bp at its Jan 26–27, 2027 meeting, from whatever level it holds going in. A hike at the October or December 2026 meetings does not count. - [2026-10-08] Waller said the hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings." Axios, reading Waller, the minutes, Jefferson and Williams, calls this a take-your-time, limited tightening. Axios's read is one hike in December and "another early in 2027", so "early 2027" can mean March rather than January. Waller used 75 bp cumulative as his hypothetical, which implies hikes spaced out. Under that path, Dec hike, January hold, March hike resolves NO. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller - [2026-10-08] In the same Waller speech (fetched), the market pricing he cites is for the March 2027 meeting, not January. It shows nearly 80% for at least two hikes and 33% for three or more. Those are cumulative figures, and the market does not need January to deliver them. The speech also warns that the 2027 dots may reflect "hikes early in the year and then cuts later". The Fed's own signalling therefore points to a cumulative total, not a meeting-by-meeting schedule. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261008a.htm - [2026-10-08] Axios frames the cycle as a "limited operation," not an open-ended tightening like 2022. Waller also said he is "not greatly concerned" about slowing the economy. A cap near 4.50% would imply only about one hike after December, and that hike could fall in any of the Jan/Mar/Apr meetings. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller - [2026-10-02] The Fed has already shown a preference for waiting. Policymakers leaned against a second straight hike in October. Goolsbee said "plenty of room for anything to be on the table". JPMorgan's Feroli said a "very strong CPI" would be needed to make October live, and expects the next hike in December. A one-meeting-on, one-meeting-off cadence (Sep hike, Oct hold, Dec hike, Jan hold) is the stated pattern. https://www.cp24.com/news/money/2026/10/02/fed-may-skip-october-but-pull-us-rate-hike-trigger-in-december/ - [2026-10-09] Williams and Jefferson both signalled delay. TradingView notes that the Sept dots, excluding Warsh, show a median of 4.1% through 2027. That is a single further hike, with officials expecting rates to stay there through 2027. If that single hike lands in December, the median path is a January hold. https://www.tradingview.com/news/macenews:4b322622d094b:0-fed-officials-moving-toward-higher-interest-rates-but-not-necessarily-soon/ - [2026-10-08] Midterm timing may matter. Reports say the data give the Fed leeway to wait until after the midterms for the next hike. That pushes the second hike into December. A three-meeting streak (Dec, Jan, Mar) would then be needed for a January hike, which is the opposite of the "take its time" message. https://www.baltimoresun.com/2026/10/09/fed-grows-more-hawkish-on-inflation-but-there-is-room-to-wait-on-rate-hikes/ - [2026-10-13] Market sibling pricing (aggregators, not this contract): Kalshi's Jan 27 market has hold at 55% and hike 25 bp at 33%. Polymarket's own Jan event shows no change 65%, +25 bp 33%, +50 bp or more 1.8%, and a 25 bp cut 1.7%. Even the market's own pricing has hold as the plurality, and hold is the default outcome. Pricing sources: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-27jan and https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502 - [2026-09-18] The January hike price moved from 22% to 34% in three days on one catalyst (Trump's demand for 1% rates, with Warsh having just hiked). The contract's low was 20%. Prices of this kind have been volatile and have mean-reverted before. A Jan 27 hike price near one-third therefore rests on a thin foundation. https://prediction.com/news/fed-january-2027-hike-odds-hit-34-after-warsh-sep-18-2026 - [2026-10-12] Sept CPI is due Oct 14 (8:30 ET). Consensus is for headline of about 3.6–3.7% year on year, boosted by record petrol prices, with core steady near 2.4%. Core CPI is 2.4% against core PCE of 3.0%, so the underlying price measure is softer than the Fed's gauge. A benign core print would add to the case for a slow pace. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook (Morningstar also cites expected core 0.2% m/m: https://www.morningstar.com/economy/cpi-forecasts-show-moderated-inflation-september-keeping-fed-hold) - [2026-10-08] Labor data are soft. The Aug jobs gain was only 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2% and wage growth lagging inflation. The Sept report was cooler still, and Feroli says deceleration in wages should give comfort that the economy is not overheating. Two more soft prints before January would let the Committee stop after December. https://wcti12.com/news/nation-world/fed-grows-more-hawkish-on-inflation-but-sees-room-to-wait-on-rate-hikes - [2026-10-12] Structural point on timing: since the market hold odds for Oct 28 are about 80%, any hike has to land in Dec, Jan, or later. With only one more hike clearly signalled (the median 4.1% implies one more), any hike that is done in December directly consumes the signalled increment. The Fed can then claim "a 3.75–4.25% path" and wait on data. https://fxstreet.com/analysis/the-feds-rate-cycle-will-not-end-in-december-202610121302 - [2026-08] Precedent for reversals of hawkish pricing: Goldman's Hatzius said market pricing was "too hawkish," and traders who had fully priced a December hike saw it slip to January. Hawkish hike pricing in this cycle has repeatedly slid later. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/odds-fed-rate-hike-fall-083935313.html BOTTOM LINE: The NO case is mostly pacing. Officials signal one near-certain hike in December and a "take-your-time" total of about 75 bp. Waller says the hikes need not come at consecutive meetings. March is a natural slot for the next one, and a hold is the default if Dec delivers or data soften. Market pricing of about one-third for January is above what the median dots imply. NOT FOUND: A live CME FedWatch reading for the Jan 27 meeting alone. The Sept CPI result, which is released Oct 14. The Jan 2027 FOMC voter roster and any changes to it. Any official statement that January specifically is off the table.