Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

- [2026-10-13] No new country has formally signed an Abraham Accords normalization agreement since Kazakhstan. I found no report of a signing or a scheduled signing ceremony. Source: https://themedialine.org/headlines/kuwait-lebanon-and-syria-emerge-as-top-abraham-accords-prospects/ - [2025-11-06] Trump announced that Kazakhstan would join. Kazakhstan has had ties with Israel since 1992, and Trump said a formal signing ceremony would be held "soon". Source: https://timesca.com/kazakhstan-to-join-abraham-accords/ - [2025-11-06] Some sources describe Kazakhstan as having already "formally acceded". The Middle East Institute and Britannica list it as joined or agreed to join. Source: https://mei.edu/backgrounder/abraham-accords/ - [2026-09-25] The Jerusalem Post, on the Sept 24 New York meeting, says Kazakhstan "is preparing to join the framework" and describes its entry as "expected". That suggests a formal signing may still be pending. The same article notes the country was the first to attend an Accords-countries meeting, and that Kazakhstan has been attending since. Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-909729 - [2026-09-24] The first official Accords-countries meeting since Oct 7 was held in New York. Present were the US (Under Secretary Allison Hooker), Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Kazakhstan. CBS reported Kazakhstan "expressed an interest in joining" last year. Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/abraham-accords-countries-hold-first-official-meeting-since-oct-7-attacks/ - [2026-09-15] Israel's ambassador to the UAE, Yossi Shelley, said another country could join within four to six months and pointed to Kuwait. He did not say it was certain. Source: https://endtimeheadlines.org/2026/09/israeli-envoy-says-another-nation-could-join-abraham-accords-in-six-months/ - [2026-10-08] A Jerusalem Post opinion piece, citing Shelley's remark, noted Netanyahu's unexplained trip to Abu Dhabi and speculated about Kuwait. This is speculation, not a report of a deal. Source: https://jpost.com/opinion/article-910870 - [2026-10-08] The Council for a Secure America (CSA) report ranks Kuwait first, then Lebanon, then Syria, as the likeliest next members. It says Saudi Arabia has moved further away after the 2026 Iran war, and Oman is less likely. Source: https://themedialine.org/headlines/kuwait-lebanon-and-syria-emerge-as-top-abraham-accords-prospects/ - [2026-06] Lebanon and Israel signed a US-brokered "Trilateral Framework" in which Lebanon recognized Israeli sovereignty, per the CSA summary (secondary source). Hezbollah remains an obstacle. Source: https://themedialine.org/headlines/kuwait-lebanon-and-syria-emerge-as-top-abraham-accords-prospects/ - [2026-09] Syria's President al-Sharaa said talks with Israel had "almost reached agreements on 90%". A security agreement could come before any peace deal, and the Golan Heights remains disputed. Source: https://themedialine.org/headlines/kuwait-lebanon-and-syria-emerge-as-top-abraham-accords-prospects/ - [2026-07-23] Trump made Saudi accession to the Accords a condition of the signed US–Saudi nuclear deal. No Saudi commitment followed. Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/23/politics/saudi-arabia-nuclear-deal-trump - [2025-12] Netanyahu recognized Somaliland, which pledged to join the Accords. This was an Israeli initiative, not a US-led signing, and I found no formal signing. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords - [2026-05] Trump pushed a "mandatory" expansion of the Accords to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan as part of an Iran peace deal. Nothing has materialized. Source: https://www.thenation.com/article/world/trump-abraham-accords-iran/ BOTTOM LINE: No new signing has happened as of Oct 13, 2026. The most concrete near-term path is a formal Kazakhstan accession ceremony, if one is still pending. Kuwait, Lebanon and Syria are talked about by officials and analysts, but there is no scheduled signing. Resolution turns on whether Kazakhstan's accession counts as "already signed" in November 2025 or as an unsigned formality, and on whether a Kuwait deal materializes. NOT FOUND: any official US or Israeli statement of a scheduled signing date; any Kuwaiti government statement; confirmation of whether Kazakhstan formally signed a document (versus announced its intention); the Polymarket page's own resolution text on Kazakhstan; any events scheduled before 2027 that bear on a signing.

- [2025-11-06] Kazakhstan's accession was announced by Trump, with a Truth Social post promising a "Signing Ceremony" soon. Kazakhstan has had full ties with Israel since 1992, so analysts called the step largely symbolic. Trump called it the "first of many," and Vance said more countries would likely follow "in the coming months." https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-873025 - [2026-09-25] About 11 months after the announcement, CBS still described Kazakhstan's entry as an "intention." Kazakhstan attended the first Abraham Accords multilateral meeting since Oct 7 (New York, 2026-09-24). It was not a formal signatory, and the CBS piece does not mention a signing ceremony date. If the Kazakhstan signing happens before 2027 and counts as a "formal signing... under the framework," it is the likeliest route to YES. The Kazakhstan announcement was widely reported as the new "joining", but the market's June 2025 baseline excludes only the four original members. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/abraham-accords-countries-hold-first-official-meeting-since-oct-7-attacks/ - [2026-09-25] JPost, also on the meeting, said Kazakhstan "is preparing to join the framework." It does not say a formal signing has happened. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-909729 - [2025-12] Netanyahu said Somaliland would join the Accords after Israel recognized it. Wikipedia reports this as a pledge only, and I found no formal signing. Somaliland has also not been shown to be accepted by the US as a participant. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords - [Historical base rate] Original wave: UAE and Bahrain signed in Sept 2020, Morocco and Sudan followed in Dec 2020/Jan 2021. That is four countries in about 5 months. Then none for the roughly 5.5 years since (Sudan never ratified), apart from the Kazakhstan announcement. Entries have therefore come in one burst, followed by a long stall. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/israel-and-the-abraham-accords-in-2025-five-years-on/ - [2025-08 to 2025-11] Reuters-sourced reports said Azerbaijan talks were "most structured," with a deal possible "within weeks." Azerbaijan did not join in the 14+ months since. Optimistic timelines from officials have repeatedly failed. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-eyes-bringing-azerbaijan-central-asian-nations-into-abraham-accords-sources-say/ - [2026-09-15] Israel's ambassador to the UAE said another country could join within four to six months, naming Kuwait but stopping short of calling it certain. That window ends mid-January 2027 at the latest, so it only partly overlaps the market period. This is one official's estimate, not a confirmed plan. https://endtimeheadlines.org/2026/09/israeli-envoy-says-another-nation-could-join-abraham-accords-in-six-months/ - [2026-10-08] The Council for a Secure America (CSA) ranked Kuwait most likely to join among 9 non-recognizing countries, then Lebanon and Syria. It ranked Saudi Arabia as having moved further away, and said Oman, Qatar, Iraq, Yemen and Iran are unlikely or impossible. It did not give probabilities or a timeframe. https://themedialine.org/headlines/kuwait-lebanon-and-syria-emerge-as-top-abraham-accords-prospects/ - [2026-10-08] Lebanon signed a US-brokered "Trilateral Framework" with Israel in June 2026. Syria's president says talks are about 90% agreed, but a security deal would likely come before any peace deal. Hezbollah and the Golan are the main obstacles. These are security or framework tracks, not explicitly Abraham Accords signings. https://themedialine.org/headlines/kuwait-lebanon-and-syria-emerge-as-top-abraham-accords-prospects/ - [2026-07-23] Trump said Saudi Arabia must join the Accords as a condition of the signed nuclear deal. A JINSA report (about 94 days old as of today) says Riyadh has moved away from normalization. https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/23/politics/saudi-arabia-nuclear-deal-trump - [2026-10-07] The Hill commentary says substantial public Saudi-Israeli progress is unlikely before Israel has a stable government following its elections. Saudi public opinion is strongly against normalization, with 81% negative in 2025. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/6129674-trump-saudi-israel-nuclear-deal/ - [2026-10-08] JPost opinion noted Netanyahu quietly traveled to Abu Dhabi less than two weeks after the Kuwait remark. It is speculation, with no confirmed Kuwaiti move. https://jpost.com/opinion/article-910870 BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is that new formal members are rare: four in 2020–21, then none for years, with repeated "within weeks" predictions failing (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan's promised ceremony still pending after 11 months). The main YES paths are a symbolic Kazakhstan signing ceremony, if it is held and counted by the resolver, or a surprise Kuwait, Syria or Lebanon deal. Expert and official signals on the latter are only soft ("4–6 months", rankings), not firm. NOT FOUND: A scheduled date for the Kazakhstan signing ceremony. Any confirmation that Kazakhstan or Somaliland formally signed. Any public Kuwaiti statement on normalization. Any dated betting or forecast figure from other venues (I did not search for these).

YES means: a country not already in the Accords (the four original members: UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan) formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel, publicly acknowledged by both governments and attributed to the Abraham Accords, between now and Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. - [2026-09-28] The most likely path to YES is the pending Kazakhstan ceremony. Times of Central Asia says Trump's promised signing ceremony "has yet to take place". It names two possible venues. One is a Trump visit to Kazakhstan, though there is no sign one is planned. The other is the G20 Leaders' Summit in Miami on Dec 14–15, which Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry confirmed Tokayev will attend. The two governments are preparing a "high-level agenda" around that visit. The article also says there is "no public indication" yet of a ceremony at the G20 or at the White House beforehand. https://timesca.com/kazakhstan-takes-part-in-abraham-accords-meeting-as-trump-promised-signing-awaits/ - [2026-09-28] Why a Kazakhstan ceremony would plausibly meet the resolution text: the criteria's baseline excludes only four countries. Kazakhstan is not excluded. Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry has already publicly announced the accession. Trump said on Nov 6, 2025 that it had "officially joined". If a ceremony is held, it would be a publicly acknowledged signing attributed to the Accords. The risk is that a resolver treats the Nov 2025 announcement as the "joining". https://timesca.com/kazakhstan-takes-part-in-abraham-accords-meeting-as-trump-promised-signing-awaits/ - [2025-11-06] Trump's own wording on the day: "We will soon announce a Signing Ceremony to make it official." This supports reading the 2025 step as an announcement with the formal signing still outstanding. He also said other countries joining would be announced "over the next little while". https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/trump-transcripts/transcript-president-trump-holds-a-multilateral-dinner-with-central-asian-leaders-110625 - [2026-10-10] Britannica (updated Oct 10) now lists Kazakhstan among the "Signatories" next to the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. Tertiary sources are already treating Kazakhstan as a member. This cuts both ways for resolution. It makes a later ceremony easy to describe as a formalization. It also makes a resolver more likely to say Kazakhstan was "already part" of the Accords. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Abraham-Accords - [2026-09-16] The most concrete Gulf path is Kuwait. Israel's ambassador to the UAE told KAN that Kuwait could join in 4–6 months. The New Arab notes that Kuwait's emir holds ultimate say over foreign policy even though its parliament is hostile. Al Bawaba says Kuwait has not confirmed the remarks. https://www.newarab.com/news/israel-ambassador-says-kuwait-could-join-abraham-accords-soon - [2026-10-11] The Media Line's account of the CSA report says Kuwait ranked first partly because Emir Mishal has had more authority since he suspended parliament in May 2024. It adds closer UAE ties and strong US security ties, and notes Kuwait was attacked by Iran in the 2026 war. This gives a mechanism: an emir-driven decision that bypasses parliament. https://themedialine.org/headlines/kuwait-lebanon-and-syria-emerge-as-top-abraham-accords-prospects/ - [2026-09-15] Al Bawaba links Kuwait to US pressure on Riyadh, noting Trump's July condition that the Saudi nuclear deal depends on Saudi accession. Washington therefore has an incentive to produce a visible new member before the Saudi decision. https://www.albawaba.com/news/kuwait-join-abraham-accords-within-1637155 (search snippet only; page fetch failed). - [2026-09-22] On the Syria path, al-Sharaa told a New York audience that talks reached "90%" of an agreement before Israel withdrew. That makes Israel the party holding back, and any deal would be a security pact first. An earlier source close to Sharaa told i24 that Trump was trying to organize a Sharaa–Netanyahu signing ceremony. Syria would still need to move from a security pact to normalization, and Sharaa has so far resisted recognition without the Golan. https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/433508 - [2025-05-14] On timelines, Witkoff predicted "four or five, maybe six" new members within months. He named Lebanon, Syria, Azerbaijan and Armenia. None of them has signed since. The administration has a record of announcing entries before they happen, so a surprise announcement can be produced quickly. It also has a record of missing deadlines. https://asbarez.com/u-s-says-armenia-and-azerbaijan-might-join-accords-for-mid-east-peace/ - [2026-01-12] Azerbaijan remains a low-cost, symbolic candidate in the way Kazakhstan was. Baku already has ties with Israel. Its Armenia peace deal was initialed in Aug 2025 but is still unsigned, pending Armenia's constitutional change. Reuters sources said the US treats that peace as a precondition. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2026/01/what-prospects-for-lasting-peace-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan.html - [2026-10-05] Trump may be offered a venue if he visits Central Asia. Paolo Zampolli said Trump wants to visit Uzbekistan. Trump said a Kazakhstan visit is "very possible". No itinerary exists. Uzbekistan is another symbolic accession candidate. https://timesca.com/central-asia-looks-to-a-possible-trump-visit/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a ceremony that formalizes Kazakhstan's accession. The G20 in Miami on Dec 14–15, with Tokayev present, is the one dated occasion before the deadline, and a Trump-organized Kuwait or Syria signing is the outside path. No ceremony has been scheduled, and Kazakhstan's status is ambiguous under the criteria. NOT FOUND: any announced date or venue for a Kazakhstan ceremony; any Kuwaiti government statement on joining; any US or Israeli scheduling of a Kuwait, Syria or Lebanon signing; the text of the Kazakhstan instrument, if one exists; the Polymarket resolution notes on Kazakhstan.

YES means: a country not already in the Accords (as of June 26, 2025) formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel, publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords, by Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. - [2026-09-29] The Times of Central Asia headline says the Trump-promised Kazakhstan signing "awaits". That is about 11 months after the Nov 2025 announcement with no ceremony. The article was not fully readable (a fetch returned 403), and it also notes the Sept 24 meeting included no signing. The "soon" promise has lapsed, and nothing is scheduled. Kazakhstan's participation in the Sept 24 meeting was framed as joining a platform, not signing. https://timesca.com/kazakhstan-takes-part-in-abraham-accords-meeting-as-trump-promised-signing-awaits/ - [2026-10-13] A technicality cuts against a Kazakhstan YES. Kazakhstan has had full ties with Israel since 1992, so there is no "normalization agreement" to sign. A Kazakh accession would be a declaration, not a bilateral treaty. The criteria require "a formal signing" of a normalization agreement, publicly acknowledged by both governments. Also, Kazakhstan was widely described as already "joined" in Nov 2025, which is before the June 2025 baseline question date, so a resolver could treat a later ceremony as non-novel. The MEI backgrounder says Astana was "formally joining" in Nov 2025. https://www.mei.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf - [2026-09-16] Shelley's Kuwait claim is a single ambassador's interview with KAN, hedged as "could". The New Arab notes Kuwait's parliament is politically influential and resists normalization. Albawaba adds that Kuwait has not confirmed the remarks and that there is no indication it has decided to recognize Israel. Kuwait is also not named by any US official. https://www.newarab.com/news/israel-ambassador-says-kuwait-could-join-abraham-accords-soon - [2026-09-16] The "four to six months" window runs from mid-September, so it ends mid-January to mid-March 2027. A signing before Dec 31 would need to come in the early part of that window, or ahead of the estimate. https://www.albawaba.com/news/kuwait-join-abraham-accords-within-1637155 - [2026-10-11] The CSA Oct 8 report that ranks Kuwait first states that the rankings measure willingness and political ability. It gives no timeline. Its Kuwait rationale rests on the Emir's consolidation of power since suspending parliament in May 2024. Kuwait is first only among nine holdouts, none of which has made a public move. https://themedialine.org/headlines/kuwait-lebanon-and-syria-emerge-as-top-abraham-accords-prospects/ - [2026-10-27] Israel's election is on Oct 27, 2026, and coalition formation will follow. This is a new fact. Any counterpart considering signing would face a transition government, and a deal might wait for the result. Netanyahu's governing coalition is only now concluding its term. That leaves about 9 weeks after the vote before the year ends. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election - [2025-12] Somaliland: the Heritage 2025 annual report says Israel and Somaliland framed the Dec 2025 recognition as being "in the spirit" of the Accords. That is looser wording than a formal Accords signing. No formal Accords signing is documented there. Somaliland recognition is also contested internationally, and the US has not joined it. https://static.heritage.org/2026/AbrahamAccords_AnnualReport2025.pdf - [2026-05-26] Trump's May "mandatory" simultaneous-signing demand for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan was tied to an Iran deal, as Time reports. It produced no signing in the roughly 4.5 months since. https://time.com/article/2026/05/26/abraham-accords-trump-peace-deal-us-israel-iran-war/ - [2026-09-24] The Sept 24 meeting's participant list (CBS) showed only the existing members plus Kazakhstan. No new Arab or Muslim state attended. Kazakhstan's ambassador framed the Accords as a platform for dialogue, and there was no signing. CBS also says the post-Oct 7 wars stalled expansion. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/abraham-accords-countries-hold-first-official-meeting-since-oct-7-attacks/ - [2026-10-13] Even a Syria or Lebanon deal would likely be a security or framework track. The criteria require agreement "clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords". Such deals could well be named otherwise (a "Trilateral Framework", a security pact). That would leave them outside the market's language. This is an inference from the colleagues' reports, and I found no new source. BOTTOM LINE: Nothing is scheduled, and the Kazakhstan ceremony has gone unheld for 11 months. The Kuwait claim is a single hedged diplomat's remark, and the Oct 27 Israeli election adds friction. Resolution wording ("formal signing... normalization agreement", clear Accords attribution) further narrows the YES paths. NOT FOUND: a scheduled signing date for any country; any Kuwaiti government statement; a full read of the Times of Central Asia piece (403); a US official statement tying Kuwait to a timeline; any Syria or Lebanon deal explicitly labelled as Abraham Accords.