Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026? — Yes

- [2026-09-02] President Trump signed H.R. 6500, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, into law, averting a shutdown at the Oct 1 fiscal-year start. Congress has approved and the President has signed a short-term continuing resolution (CR) to keep the federal government funded through December 11, 2026, avoiding a government shutdown at the start of the new fiscal year, approved by the House on September 1 by a vote of 370-48 and signed into law on September 2. - [2026-09-01/09-02] The CR funds government at FY2026 levels and also delays an OMB grants-review rule; the Senate had passed it 90-6 on Aug. 8 and the House 370-48 on Sept. 1. The continuing resolution (CR) funds the federal government at largely current levels through Dec. 11, 2026... The passage of the CR prevents a government shutdown when current federal funding expires on Sept. 30. It buys time for negotiations over final FY27 appropriations until after midterm elections in early November. - [2026-10-09] A Holland & Knight legal alert confirms the government is currently open and funded, with the next cliff being Dec. 11, 2026: The most immediate deadline is December 11, 2026, when the current continuing resolution (CR) expires... The current CR funds the government through December 11, 2026. - [2026-10-09] Appropriations progress remains thin: The House has passed three (Agriculture, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and National Security-State) of the 12 FY 2027 appropriations bills, while the U.S. Senate had not completed any comparable floor action before the pre-election recess. - [2026-10-09] The same analysis notes a shutdown remains a live possibility: A partial government shutdown remains possible if the parties cannot resolve disputes over spending levels, policy riders, defense funding, healthcare and Trump Administration authorities before December 11, 2026. - [2026-10-09] Congress is in pre-election recess; the Senate left Washington on Sept. 30, 2026 and will return for a "compressed lame-duck" session after the Nov. 3 midterms to negotiate FY2027 funding, NDAA, Farm Bill, surface transportation, and other year-end items converging on Dec. 11. - [2026-10-03] Independent trackers confirm the operative status: As of October 3, 2026, the federal government has funding through December 11 under the recently enacted continuing resolution. - [History/context] Earlier in FY2026, there were two separate funding lapses unrelated to the Dec 2026 question: a 43-day shutdown from Oct 1–Nov 12, 2025, and in early 2026 a 4-day shutdown (Jan 31–Feb 3) and a 76-day partial DHS shutdown (Feb 14–Apr 30) Date: First shutdown: January 31 – February 3, 2026 (4 days) Second shutdown: February 14 – April 30, 2026 (76 days), Cause: End of certain appropriations from the Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Extensions Act, 2026 — showing a pattern of repeated brinkmanship/shutdowns in 2025-2026, though all resolved before now. - [2026-10-09] Congress's three stated year-end options for Dec. 11 are: Enact all or most of the 12 appropriations bills through an omnibus or several minibuses. Pass another CR into early 2027. Allow funding for some agencies to lapse while completing others. - [2026-10-09] Legal analysts assess a divided/compressed lame-duck calendar makes full omnibus passage "unlikely" while a second CR is seen as a "realistic outcome," particularly under divided government outcomes from the midterms. - [2026-09-27] A forecasting outlet (The Political Group) independently estimated roughly a 1-in-4 chance of a shutdown beginning between Dec. 12–31, 2026, citing the cheapness of another short stopgap as the main reason it would likely hold, noting Congress "just passed one 370 to 48." NOT FOUND: No evidence of any funding lapse or shutdown currently in effect as of Oct 10, 2026; no OMB shutdown directive or updated OPM operating-status page specific to December 2026; no confirmed outcome of the Nov. 3, 2026 midterm elections' effect on post-election negotiating posture; no specific legislative text or vote scheduled yet for a Dec. 11/12 CR or omnibus. BOTTOM LINE: The government is currently open and funded through Dec. 11, 2026 under a CR signed Sept. 2, 2026; Congress is on pre-election recess with only 3 of 12 FY2027 appropriations bills passed by the House and none by the Senate, so the Dec. 11 deadline (one day before this market's Dec. 12 close) will force a fresh negotiation in a compressed lame-duck session, leaving real — but not dominant — shutdown risk given 2025-2026's repeated pattern of last-minute CRs and lapses.

- [2026-09-03] FY2027 began Oct 1, 2026 with no appropriations bills enacted; Congress instead enacted a continuing resolution (signed Sept 2, 2026) Fiscal year (FY) 2027 will begin on October 1, 2026, but so far none of the 12 appropriation bills for the year have been enacted; lawmakers enacted a CR on September 2, 2026, to provide temporary funding for federal agency operations through December 11, 2026, at FY 2026 funding levels. This is the exact deadline this Dec-12 market tracks. - [2026-10-02] Primary structural fact for the base rate: this is already the fourth funding cliff within roughly 14 months (Oct 1 2025, Jan 30 2026, Feb 14 2026/Apr 30 2026, now Dec 11 2026), reflecting an unusually volatile fiscal-conflict streak After experiencing the longest government shutdown in history at the start of FY 2026 and two subsequent partial shutdowns, Congress proactively pursued a CR to avoid the possibility of a shutdown before the midterm elections. - [2026-10-10] Historical base rate (pre-2025/26): there have been 20 "funding gaps" since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, but many of those were only a few days long. Before now, only three funding lapses shut down the government for more than two weeks , meaning that historically most funding deadlines were met and most lapses that did occur were brief. - [2026-10-10] Recent base rate has shifted sharply worse: in the current Congress alone there have been three shutdowns in 12 months — the United States has shut down its government three times in the last 12 months, more funding lapses in one year than the country saw across the whole of the 1990s — including First shutdown: January 31 – February 3, 2026 (4 days) Second shutdown: February 14 – April 30, 2026 (76 days) and the record 43-day Oct 1–Nov 12, 2025 shutdown, so the "modern" reference class for this specific Congress is far more shutdown-prone than the long-run average. - [2026-09-26] Independent forecaster "The Political Group" put odds of a shutdown starting between Dec 12–31, 2026 at 24% (range 15–35%), citing that Democrats "did not extract concrete concessions" from the two 2025-26 shutdowns, lowering their incentive to trigger another, while noting the September CR passed the Senate 90-6 and House 370-48 — a sign both parties currently prefer avoiding another lapse. - [2026-09-30] Prediction-market tracking site reported Kalshi's shutdown-risk gauge had Trump signed a stopgap through December 11, 2026, as Kalshi traders tracked the collapse from 35% to 4% for the October 1 deadline, then (per the same source) pivoted to pricing December risk at roughly 24% as of early October — illustrating how quickly these markets swing as deadlines approach and recede. - [2026-10-02] A separate tracker summarized Kalshi's December 12 shutdown contract at 35% as of Oct 2, 2026, noting as of Oct 2, 2026, Kalshi prices a federal government shutdown on Dec. 12, 2026 at 35% — the stopgap signed Sept. 2 funds the government through Dec. 11, so that is the next cliff (note: this and other cited market prices are dated snapshots, not necessarily current). - [2026-08-24] An earlier aggregator (Octagon AI) compound-market analysis for "another shutdown" running through Dec 12 showed its model at 22% versus a cited market price of 11%, reflecting disagreement among quantitative forecasters about how seriously to weight the post-midterm, lame-duck dynamic Our model reads 22% — 11 pts above the market's 11%. - [2025-12-11] A separate, lower-quality aggregator ("Government Shutdown Prediction 2026") offered a generic 40-45% "expert consensus"-style baseline for any FY2026 shutdown lasting over five days, but this figure predates the current December cliff and reflects general polarization/debt-ceiling framing rather than deadline-specific analysis A survey of 30 budget experts by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found a median probability of 40% for a shutdown ; its reliability for this specific Dec 12 event is uncertain. - [2026-09-02] Context for why Congress chose a longer CR this cycle: lawmakers "proactively" extended funding past the midterms specifically to avoid election-season shutdown risk, per PGPF Congress proactively pursued a CR to avoid the possibility of a shutdown before the midterm elections — implying the December deadline is the first one where the political "midterm insurance" rationale no longer applies, a key reason analysts flag elevated (though still minority) risk for December relative to the immediately preceding CRs. BOTTOM LINE: The long-run (1976–2024) base rate for a shutdown at any given funding deadline is low (most lapses were brief or avoided; only 3 of ~20 funding gaps before 2025 exceeded two weeks), but the current 119th Congress has broken that pattern with three shutdowns in the past 12 months, including the longest (43-day) and second-longest (76-day) shutdowns on record; independent forecasters as of late September 2026 put the December 12 shutdown probability in roughly the 15-35% range (central estimate ~22-29%), notably elevated above historical norms but still favoring "No." NOT FOUND: No official/government (OMB, CBO, or congressional) forecast or probability estimate specific to the December 12, 2026 deadline; no confirmed, non-stale current Kalshi/Polymarket price (all cited figures are dated snapshots from late Sept/early Oct 2026 and may have moved).

YES means: the federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations as of 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026 (i.e., Congress and the President fail to enact a new CR, omnibus, or other funding law before the current CR expires at the end of Dec. 11, 2026). - [2026-09-30] The current CR leaves Congress only "four legislative weeks to prevent a post-midterm shutdown," and as of FY26's close "congressional leaders have no agreed plan to fund the government for FY27" — https://actuminsights.substack.com/p/congress-crowded-lame-duck - [2026-09-30] Republican and Democratic leadership "have not signed off on a strategy for appropriations bills in the lame duck" because the Nov. 3 midterm results are expected to reshape both parties' incentives, and there is "no progress on the negotiations for topline defense and non-defense spending levels" — https://actuminsights.substack.com/p/congress-crowded-lame-duck - [2026-09-30] A concrete sticking point for the defense topline: "billions in Iran war shortfalls and the administration's broader military buildup will make the defense topline especially difficult to resolve," with Trump separately seeking $350B via reconciliation plus $67B for Iran war costs — https://actuminsights.substack.com/p/congress-crowded-lame-duck - [2026-09-30] Even if a topline deal were reached, "the quickest appropriators can generally draft and vote on final appropriations bills is four weeks," meaning a late or post-midterm start to real negotiations could structurally outrun the Dec. 11 deadline, forcing either a rushed stopgap or a lapse — https://actuminsights.substack.com/p/congress-crowded-lame-duck - [2026-09-30] Senate appropriators are separately pushing to add language blocking the administration from unilaterally withholding (impounding) congressionally approved funds, a policy rider that has been a recurring flashpoint and a plausible trigger for a veto threat or a Democratic walkout — https://actuminsights.substack.com/p/congress-crowded-lame-duck - [2026-10-04] Senate Budget Chair Ron Johnson is "pushing for a marathon series of votes on a budget resolution in the lame-duck to unlock... a third budget reconciliation package," a competing, time-consuming floor priority that could crowd out appropriations work ahead of Dec. 11 — https://wate.com/hill-politics/senate-adjourns-until-november-with-republicans-fearful-of-losing-majority - [2026-10-04] The same report frames the Dec. 11 deadline as the trigger for "a high-stakes negotiation to avoid another government shutdown after Thanksgiving," underscoring that the compressed post-midterm calendar (Thanksgiving to Dec. 11) is the binding constraint — https://wate.com/hill-politics/senate-adjourns-until-november-with-republicans-fearful-of-losing-majority - [2026-10-10] A legal-industry analysis confirms the Dec. 11 funding deadline will collide with other year-end deadlines — including a Dec. 31 Community Health Center Fund expiration and healthcare "extenders" — making the funding bill "the principal forcing mechanism" for multiple unresolved fights, which raises the odds that a dispute on any one rider spills into a missed Dec. 11 deadline — https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/10/beyond-the-midterms-congress-faces-converging-year-end-deadlines - [2026-09-30] Non-funding fights competing for floor time include an Iran war-powers push and "an impeachment vote against Defense Secretary Hegseth" that Democrats and moderate Republicans intend to force, which could further poison the well for bipartisan appropriations cooperation in the same window — https://actuminsights.substack.com/p/congress-crowded-lame-duck - [Context, 2025-2026 pattern] This Congress has already allowed three separate funding lapses in the prior 12 months (the 43-day Oct–Nov 2025 shutdown and two shutdowns in Jan–Apr 2026), establishing a demonstrated willingness by both parties to let deadlines lapse rather than cave on policy disputes — a directly relevant precedent for the Dec. 11/12 cliff that the "No" case must overcome. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a straightforward mechanical one: a genuinely crowded, midterm-disrupted lame-duck session with unresolved defense-topline, Iran-funding, impoundment-rider, and reconciliation fights consuming floor time, such that Congress simply runs out of days to pass even a new stopgap before the Dec. 11 CR lapses — a scenario made more plausible by this Congress's demonstrated pattern of three prior lapses in 12 months. NOT FOUND: No evidence yet of actual stalled negotiations, veto threats, or a specific bill text for the December 2026 CR/omnibus; no confirmation of midterm results (Nov. 3) or their effect on each party's bargaining posture; no OMB shutdown-planning directive or updated contingency guidance specific to December 2026.

YES means: the US federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in federal appropriations — i.e., OMB has issued a shutdown directive and/or OPM's operating status shows agencies operating under a lapse — in effect at 10:00 AM ET on December 12, 2026. - [2026-09-26] The Political Group's dedicated Dec-12 forecast, the most recent deadline-specific model found, puts the probability of a shutdown starting Dec. 12–31 at 24% (range 15-35%), arguing "Democrats did not extract concrete concessions" from the two record shutdowns this Congress, which "lowers the chance they start one in December." https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-government-shut-down-in-december-2026 - [2026-09-26] The same analysis flags that Appropriations leadership is already signaling a punt rather than confrontation: "The chairman is pre-positioning for another stopgap rather than promising an omnibus. That is the language of a punt, which is the NO outcome." https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-government-shut-down-in-december-2026 - [2026-09-26] TPG's statistical base rate is explicitly built from the lame-duck reference class: "Start from the lame-duck base rate of about 15 percent (2 of 13 since 1980)." — well under 50%, before adjusting upward for this Congress's volatility. https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-government-shut-down-in-december-2026 - [2026-10-08] A fresh (2-day-old) Hill report on the House Freedom Caucus's post-midterm posture confirms the "no shutdown, just no omnibus" dynamic: a member said the caucus wants to make sure there isn't "some sort of massive Christmas omnibus" and that it could exert influence "including by preventing the movement of any omnibus spending package" — i.e., the conservative flank's stated goal is blocking a big bill, not provoking a lapse, which points toward another "clean" CR as the likely off-ramp. https://thehill.com/homenews/house/6132803-house-freedom-caucus-leadership-shakeup/ - [2026-09-30] Fox News reported Senate Majority Leader Thune's read on why Democrats folded on the September CR: he said Democrats appeared to calculate that a shutdown fight would create "uncertainty that perhaps didn't help their chances" heading into the midterms — a blame-avoidance logic that, while weaker after Nov. 3, still signals neither party has shown appetite to engineer a lapse this cycle. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schumer-caves-hands-republicans-shutdown-win-months-uncertainty - [2026-09-03] Both chambers have already shown supermajority willingness to simply extend funding rather than fight: the CR passed the Senate 90-6 and the House 370-48, a far wider bipartisan margin than any 2025-26 shutdown-era CR vote, suggesting the path of least resistance (another short CR) remains cheap and available in December. https://ofr.harvard.edu/news/2026/09/congress-extends-government-funding-through-december-11 - [2026-09-03] Contrary to the narrative of total gridlock, the House Appropriations Committee had already "advanced all 12 of its FY27 draft funding bills" by early September, meaning House-side groundwork for a minibus/omnibus fallback is further along than the floor-vote count alone suggests; the Senate's holdup is specifically over the defense topline, a narrower, negotiable dispute rather than total disagreement. https://ofr.harvard.edu/news/2026/09/congress-extends-government-funding-through-december-11 - [2026-10-02] An appropriations-focused law-firm tracker frames the Senate's stall as a single quantifiable dispute — "If Republicans emerge from the midterms intent on pursuing another reconciliation package, congressional leaders will have to balance that effort against a December 11 government-funding deadline" — implying the main risk is a reconciliation side-fight rather than a breakdown over base appropriations, a narrower and more containable source of friction than a full-spectrum shutdown fight. https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/blogs/the-approps-drop/omb-reaches-for-congresss-purse-strings-but-december-is-coming - [2026-10-09] Holland & Knight's year-end outlook explicitly lists "another continuing resolution" as one of only three plausible outcomes alongside omnibus/minibus or a partial lapse, and frames a full-year omnibus as the hardest of the three to achieve in a compressed calendar — leaving a CR (a NO outcome) as a structurally favored fallback precisely because it requires the least new negotiation. https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/10/beyond-the-midterms-congress-faces-converging-year-end-deadlines - [Resolution-text technicality] The market's own rules state that "a technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations" type scenarios would NOT resolve Yes; combined with the one-day gap between the Dec. 11 CR expiration and the Dec. 12, 10 AM ET market close, even a brief Dec. 11–12 lapse that Congress clears before OMB issues a formal "orderly shutdown" directive, or before OPM updates its operating-status page, would not satisfy the Yes criteria. BOTTOM LINE: Every dedicated, deadline-specific forecast found (TPG's 24%, central lame-duck base rates near 15%) keeps the probability of an actual Dec. 12 lapse a minority outcome, and the mechanics so far — wide bipartisan CR votes, a House Appropriations Committee that has already cleared all 12 bills, a Senate dispute narrowly focused on the defense topline, and Freedom Caucus messaging aimed at blocking an omnibus rather than provoking a shutdown — all point toward another stopgap CR (a NO outcome) as the modal resolution, with the question's own technical-lapse carve-out further widening the margin for NO even if talks run past Dec. 11. NOT FOUND: No post-midterm (Nov. 3+) statements from Johnson, Thune, Jeffries, or Schumer on December strategy (election hasn't happened yet); no confirmed text or whip count for any December CR/omnibus; no OMB or OPM contingency guidance specific to December 2026; no non-stale current Kalshi/Polymarket price.