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Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

polymarketScience and Technology·2026-10-02·view on polymarket ↗
22%
Agent
38%
Market Price
-15.1%
Edge
60%
Confidence
63,291
Volume
1.0c
Spread
821
Days to resolution
4
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.22, 0.22, 0.24, 0.22, 0.22) after one crux research pass. (0) Resolution check: not met. The 2026 session produced no statewide moratorium. HB 1333 died in Senate Utilities, and the enacted HEA 1210 is revenue-sharing only. Trackers through late September 2026 list only local/county pauses (e.g., Indianapolis through 2027), which are excluded. (a) About 27 months remain, covering the 2027 long budget session (Jan-Apr) and a 2028 short session; Indiana has no citizen initiative, so only the legislature can act. (b) Status quo is No: no statewide bill is pre-filed, and the GOP trifecta (70-30 House, 39-10 Senate) controls hearings. (c) No: Gov. Braun keeps his stated July/September 2026 position that each county decides, plus ratepayer and water guardrails; leadership channels backlash into abatement reform and interconnection cost allocation, which are conditional measures that do not count. (d) Yes: local backlash (about a third of counties with moratoria or bans) becomes a 2028 election issue, and legislators pass a statute suspending approvals or interconnection for facilities over 100 MW until an objective condition is met. I price below the market's 0.375 because no state has yet enacted such a moratorium by statute (Maine vetoed; New York and Texas used executive orders, which do not count), the governor explicitly favors local option, and no 2027 bill exists. The long horizon and bipartisan grassroots salience keep a meaningful tail.
price vs. prediction
market price agent forecast at t+0
16 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen: polymarket_direct resolution_source polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search
Planner reasoning
The Polymarket price is the main anchor. The question resolves on Indiana state government records, so the plan points resolution_source at the Indiana General Assembly bill portal. The related-market tools look for sibling markets on state data center moratoriums, which act as a cross-state reference class. One targeted article search checks for any introduced moratorium bill and its status in the Indiana legislature.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports) Tools - polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?** - Current price (probability): 37.50% (live; bid 37% / ask 38%) - 7-day price change: -10.00% - 30-day price change: -10.00% - Total volume: $63,291 (USD notional) - Price range: 37.50% - 47.50% - Data points: 2 days - resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page is just the Indiana General Assembly's generic bills listing page for the 2026 session, with no specific bill text, status, or content related to a data center moratorium shown. - polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 12 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets | keyword 'Indiana data center': 2 markets - kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok - article_search: Fetched 11 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=180d). 'Indiana General Assembly data center moratorium bill introduced status 2026': 8 articles | 'Indiana legislator files statewide data center moratorium bill 2027 session': 8 articles Research loops, bottom lines - current state: As of October 2, 2026, Indiana has no statewide data center moratorium law, in force or pending in the legislature; the only statewide bill addressing data centers to reach a floor vote (HB 1333) failed in the Senate, and 2026 session output on data centers was limited to incentive/revenue-sharing and permitting-study measures. All current moratorium activity in Indiana (Indianapolis, Boone, Elkhart, Zionsville, Owen County, etc.) is local/county, which does not satisfy this market's "statewide" - base rate: The reference class — roughly a dozen-plus U.S. states that have pursued statewide data-center moratorium bills in 2025–2026 (Maine, New York, Vermont, Oklahoma, Georgia, Maryland, etc.) — has produced zero successful statewide enactments to date; every bill that reached a floor vote either died in committee, was vetoed with no override, or (in New York's case) was replaced by a non-statutory executive order. Indiana's own 2026 attempt (HB 1333) already failed in the Senate, and all subsequent I - yes case: The strongest YES path is a 2027 long-session bill combining (a) the documented bipartisan "midterm agenda" pressure, (b) a dense bloc of ~20-25 county/city moratoria whose local officials and CAC are explicitly lobbying for a statewide version, and (c) an active Energy/Utilities interim study committee and recycled disclosure/siting bills that could be amended into a mandatory, condition-triggered statewide pause — a mechanism the market's resolution criteria would count even if conditional. Th - no case: With a Republican supermajority and a governor explicitly favoring local-option, abatement-reform, and ratepayer-protection tools over a statewide ban, with the 2026 session's only moratorium-adjacent bill already killed in the Senate, and with just one realistic legislative window (Jan–Apr 2027) remaining before the deadline, the structural, personnel, and policy-direction evidence strongly favors continued inertia and a NO resolution. Crux follow-up - The evidence strongly favors the "No" side of the disagreement. There is no pending or pre-filed statewide Indiana moratorium bill, the one 2026 bill resembling a restriction died in the Senate, the enacted law was revenue-sharing only, and Governor Braun's own words explicitly endorse local-option decision-making over a statewide mandate — directly undercutting the thesis that Braun or GOP leadership might greenlight a statewide pause in 2027-28. This evidence pulls toward the forecasters' lowe
tools
toolstatustimeitemssummary
polymarket_direct OK 0.2s 1 ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?** - Current price (probability): 37.50% (live; bid 37% / ask 38%) - 7-day price change: -10.00% - 30-day price change: -10.00% - Total volume: $63,291 (USD notional) - Price range: 37.50% - 47.50% -
resolution_source OK 3.0s 1 already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page is just the Indiana General Assembly's generic bills listing page for the 2026 session, with no specific bill text, status, or content related to a data center moratorium shown.
polymarket_related OK 0.3s 12 Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 12 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets | keyword 'Indiana data center': 2 markets
kalshi_related OK 0.5s 1 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok
article_search OK 1.0s 11 Fetched 11 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=180d). 'Indiana General Assembly data center moratorium bill introduced status 2026': 8 articles | 'Indiana legislator files statewide data center moratorium bill 2027 session': 8 articles
research loops · 4/4 ok · 16 searches · 5 page reads
dimensionstatustimesearchespage readsreport
current state OK 32s 4 2 5065 chars
base rate OK 31s 4 2 4820 chars
yes case SNIPPETS 33s 5 0 5426 chars · no page read; snippets only
no case OK 32s 3 1 5722 chars
report: current state
- [2026-02-27] The 2026 Indiana General Assembly (short session) adjourned sine die; no statewide data center moratorium was enacted. The only notable statewide data-center bill, HB 1333, passed the House 54-45 in February 2026 but stalled in the Senate Utilities Committee, with its controversial farmland 'permitted use' provision explicitly rejected . The bill's revenue-sharing concept was instead folded into HB 1210, which became law (HEA 1210) — an incentive/revenue-sharing measure, not a moratorium. https://mirrorindy.org/data-center-legislation-indiana-general-assembly-2026/ - [2026-03-02] Reporting confirmed despite nearly a dozen bills filed, little new regulation of the industry was advanced, and much of the legislation introduced didn't aim to slow development ; no statewide pause bill advanced past committee. https://www.wboi.org/2026-03-02/at-a-pivotal-moment-for-data-centers-indiana-lawmakers-take-little-action - [2026-07-17] A policy tracker stated explicitly that the General Assembly did not enact the statewide moratorium, water-permitting, electricity-reporting, or data-center-specific ratepayer-protection proposals introduced in 2026 . https://servercountry.org/policy/indiana/ - [2026-08-19] Indianapolis/Marion County enacted a binding **local** (not statewide) moratorium: the Metropolitan Development Commission approved the temporary moratorium 6-0, effective through no later than Dec. 31, 2027 , following a 23-1 City-County Council vote. This is explicitly excluded from the market's definition since it's local, not statewide. https://fox59.com/news/metropolitan-development-commission-unanimously-approves-data-center-moratorium/ - [2026-08-28] Citizens Action Coalition materials show advocacy groups are explicitly campaigning for a statewide moratorium, urging residents to urge Indiana Legislators to pass a statewide data center moratorium! ... Protect Hoosiers — confirming no statewide measure exists yet and that it remains an active advocacy goal rather than pending legislation. https://www.citact.org/sites/default/files/AI-Data-Centers-in-Indiana-Sep-2026-Update.pdf - [2026-09-28] A comprehensive tracker (last updated 2026-09-28) lists only local/county moratoria (Fulton, Starke, Dearborn, White, Putnam, Pulaski, Boone, Marion/Indianapolis, Elkhart City, Zionsville, Owen County, etc.) and shows the legislation table with only HB 1333 (failed) and HB 1210 (enacted, not a moratorium) — no statewide moratorium bill is listed as active or pending. https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana - [2026-09-23] Fort Wayne's proposed one-year council pause on data center actions (a **local** measure) was delayed to an October 13, 2026 vote, illustrating continued local-level (not state) activity. https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana - [n/d, per IndyBar] The next legislative session will begin the first full week of January 2027 and run through late April. Given the odd-numbered year, it will be a "long session," during which legislators largely focus on the State's biennial budget — this will be the next opportunity for any statewide data-center bill, including a possible moratorium, to be introduced and passed before the market's Dec 31, 2028 deadline. https://indybar.org/billwatch - [2026-10 (ongoing)] Nearly a third of Indiana's 92 counties/cities have enacted some form of local moratorium or restriction on data centers, per tracker counts of "13 of 92 counties" to "15 of 92 counties (16%)" as of late September 2026, reflecting strong grassroots momentum that could translate into pressure for a 2027 statewide bill, but as of now none has been filed or scheduled for the 2027 session. https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana - [2026-09 (various)] Statewide legislative activity to date has focused on adjacent issues — e.g., SEA 240 directing IURC study of surplus interconnection capacity, and earlier 2025 HB 1007 on electric capacity cost-sharing — rather than a moratorium. https://servercountry.org/policy/indiana/ BOTTOM LINE: As of October 2, 2026, Indiana has no statewide data center moratorium law, in force or pending in the legislature; the only statewide bill addressing data centers to reach a floor vote (HB 1333) failed in the Senate, and 2026 session output on data centers was limited to incentive/revenue-sharing and permitting-study measures. All current moratorium activity in Indiana (Indianapolis, Boone, Elkhart, Zionsville, Owen County, etc.) is local/county, which does not satisfy this market's "statewide" resolution criterion; the next chance for a statewide bill is the long 2027 session (Jan–Apr 2027), with no such bill yet introduced. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any currently filed or pre-filed statewide data-center moratorium bill for the 2027 Indiana General Assembly session; no statement from Governor Mike Braun specifically on a statewide moratorium (only general comments on energy capacity concerns); no Indiana ballot/referendum mechanism relevant to this question (Indiana has no citizen initiative process for statutes).
report: base rate
- [2026-02-xx] Indiana's only statewide-level attempt in the 2026 session, HB 1333 (Data Center Revenue Sharing Act, which included farmland/permitting provisions sought by moratorium advocates), passed the House 54-45 but stalled in the Senate Utilities Committee, with the controversial 'permitted use' farmland provision explicitly rejected ; its core revenue provision was folded into HB 1210, which became law, but no moratorium language survived. https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana - [2026-09-01] A state-by-state tracker lists Indiana's statewide bill status plainly as "HB 1333 (died)" with no other statewide bill pending, categorizing Indiana among 37 states with local action but "no statewide bill." https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026-09-xx] Nationally, as of this tracker's count, only New York has a statewide moratorium in force (via Executive Order No. 62), which would not itself count as "enactment" for this market since it is an executive order, not a statute . The underlying NY bill (S10642/A11560) passed both chambers but Hochul chose an executive order instead of signing it, so no state legislature has yet converted a passed moratorium bill into enacted law. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026-04-24] The only data-center moratorium bill that reached a governor's desk anywhere in the base-rate reference class, Maine's LD 307, was vetoed by Gov. Janet Mills, and the override vote was 20–11 in the Senate — shy of the two-thirds majority required , confirming zero successful statewide enactments to date among ~12+ states that considered such bills in 2026. https://www.ailawsbystate.com/blog/data-center-moratorium-by-state-2026 - [2026-10-01] Nationally, more than 300 data center-related bills have been filed across more than 30 states in 2026; at least 12 states have considered moratorium legislation; and more than 100 local moratoria have been adopted nationwide — yet essentially none of these state-level moratorium bills has been enacted as statute; most died in committee (Oklahoma SB1488, Georgia, Maryland HB120, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota) or were vetoed (Maine, Vermont H.727). - [2026-09-xx] Indiana's pattern mirrors the national trend of local-not-state action: Indiana is listed as "Active" with "None" for statewide action and 25 local moratoriums and bans since 2022 , including Indianapolis through Dec. 31, 2027 and permanent bans in Marshall and Cass counties. - [2026-09-xx] Advocacy group Citizens Action Coalition, the leading in-state proponent of a moratorium, acknowledges the legislature has not acted: "Indiana's experience: General Assembly hasn't codified it." https://www.citact.org/sites/default/files/AI-Data-Centers-in-Indiana-Sep-2026-Update.pdf - [2026-09-xx] CAC's own count shows the moratorium wave in Indiana remains entirely local: "25 counties and 10 municipalities currently have a data center moratorium; 3 counties do not permit data centers" , with no statewide measure listed. https://www.citact.org/sites/default/files/AI-Data-Centers-in-Indiana-Sep-2026-Update.pdf - [2026-02-04] Even Indiana's main advocacy group frames a moratorium as an aspiration rather than pending legislation: "Citizens Action Coalition believes the way forward on the data center 'gold rush' in Indiana is a full moratorium on developments until more regulations are in place" — a goal, not an active bill. https://www.ipm.org/news/2026-02-04/house-bill-could-provide-benefit-to-communities-that-host-data-centers - [2026-10-01] No Indiana statewide moratorium bill is currently reported as pending for the 2027 legislative session (which convenes in January 2027); coverage of Indiana activity in September 2026 (Fort Wayne, Zionsville, Owen County, Elkhart) is exclusively municipal/county-level. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class — roughly a dozen-plus U.S. states that have pursued statewide data-center moratorium bills in 2025–2026 (Maine, New York, Vermont, Oklahoma, Georgia, Maryland, etc.) — has produced zero successful statewide enactments to date; every bill that reached a floor vote either died in committee, was vetoed with no override, or (in New York's case) was replaced by a non-statutory executive order. Indiana's own 2026 attempt (HB 1333) already failed in the Senate, and all subsequent Indiana moratorium activity has occurred exclusively at the local/county level, suggesting a very low historical base rate for this type of measure passing into state law by 2028. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any Indiana statewide moratorium bill currently pre-filed or publicly announced for the 2027 Indiana General Assembly session; no polling or formal odds/forecasts specific to Indiana state-level moratorium enactment were located.
report: yes case
YES means: Indiana's General Assembly and Governor enact a statewide statutory or constitutional data-center moratorium (or a qualifying mandatory suspension on a subset including all 100MW+ facilities) between October 1, 2026 and December 31, 2028 — most plausibly during the January–April 2027 "long session" (budget session) or the 2028 short session. - [2026-07-13] Organizer Bryce Gustafson, whose Citizens Action Coalition explicitly campaigns for a *statewide* moratorium, said the data-center fight "has become the biggest issue... across the state of Indiana as far as public engagement and it's uniting communities unlike anything I've ever seen," evidencing a grassroots base that could translate into 2027 bill sponsorship. https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/indy-halts-data-centers-2027-210753073.html - [2026-03-02] A Hoosier Action organizer, Will Stauffer, framed the issue as cross-partisan and electorally salient, saying "I've never met an issue that has more broad-based political support across the spectrum," and "Every legislator — I don't care if they're Republican or Democrat — and any candidate running for office, we have got to demand that regulating these data centers is part of the midterm election agenda." This signals possible pressure on the 2027 session (which coincides with pre-midterm positioning) to revisit stronger measures. - [2026-09 (by)] County-level data from Indiana University's Environmental Resilience Institute shows Marion County joining more than 20 Indiana counties that have put in place temporary bans, set to expire at various points over the next year or so , and a handful of counties have passed ordinances blocking data centers indefinitely — a scale of local action (roughly 20-25 of 92 counties) that gives statewide-moratorium advocates a large, organized coalition of local governments to lobby legislators directly ahead of the 2027 session. - [2026-07 (filing)] A 2026 bill, SB 135, already sought mandatory statewide disclosure/siting conditions — requiring any person operating a data center in Indiana to submit quarterly electricity-use reports to the IURC, and requiring counties/municipalities to mandate water/power usage disclosure and site assessments before issuing construction permits — showing legislators already draft mandatory, state-preemptive conditions on data centers, a legislative building block that could be tightened into a conditional moratorium trigger in 2027. - [2026 interim] The Legislative Council empaneled an Interim Study Committee on Energy, Utilities, and Telecommunications for the 2026 interim with Republican leadership (Soliday, Koch) and Democratic members (Burton, Hamilton, Pierce), giving a standing venue where data-center load/grid-capacity findings could be formally channeled into a 2027 moratorium-style bill, distinct from the local zoning fights. - [2026-10-01 base] Nationally, the volume of moratorium activity is still rising: Indiana's statewide tracker records "HB 1333: died" as the only 2025–26 statewide moratorium bill , but the same tracker's companion state entries show other states (e.g., Virginia) already imposing statewide mandatory conditions such as a "$0.011/kWh data center electricity tax effective July 1, 2026 through July 1, 2028" and an SCC order requiring large loads to pay for dedicated transmission — demonstrating a plausible legislative template (mandatory grid-cost/interconnection conditions) that Indiana could adapt into a qualifying "suspension until condition satisfied" moratorium under this market's broad definition. - [2026-08 (CAC)] Citizens Action Coalition's own materials explicitly instruct supporters to push for "a statewide data center moratorium! Urge Indiana Legislators to... Protect Hoosiers" — confirming an organized, funded advocacy infrastructure is already primed to lobby the incoming 2027 session specifically for this outcome, not merely local pauses. - [2026 session] Rep. Robin Shackleford's HB 1245 (IURC data-center demand study) never received a hearing in the House Utilities, Energy and Telecommunications Committee , but its substance was echoed in SB 135's mandatory disclosure provisions, showing that even failed 2026 bills are being recycled and could reappear with moratorium language attached once study-committee findings (due by the 2027 session) quantify grid strain. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a 2027 long-session bill combining (a) the documented bipartisan "midterm agenda" pressure, (b) a dense bloc of ~20-25 county/city moratoria whose local officials and CAC are explicitly lobbying for a statewide version, and (c) an active Energy/Utilities interim study committee and recycled disclosure/siting bills that could be amended into a mandatory, condition-triggered statewide pause — a mechanism the market's resolution criteria would count even if conditional. This remains a plausible but unconfirmed path: no statewide moratorium bill has yet been filed or guaranteed for 2027. NOT FOUND: No pre-filed 2027 statewide moratorium bill text; no statement from House Speaker Todd Huston, Senate leadership, or Governor Braun endorsing a statewide moratorium; no confirmation that the Energy/Utilities interim study committee's 2026 agenda specifically includes moratorium legislation (its posted topic list did not name data centers explicitly as an assigned topic as of July 2026).
report: no case
YES means: Indiana's General Assembly and Governor enact a statutory or constitutional statewide moratorium (or default-prohibition measure meeting the resolution criteria) on new data centers (or those >100MW) before Dec 31, 2028. - [2026-09-01] Republicans hold overwhelming supermajorities in both chambers — Senate 39-10 and House 70-30 — giving GOP leadership full control over whether any moratorium bill even receives a hearing, let alone a floor vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Senate - [2026-09-28] Governor Braun continues to frame data centers as a core pillar of Indiana's economic-development pitch, touting a new Indiana University/NVIDIA supercomputer project explicitly tied to the data-center push, rather than endorsing any statewide pause. https://wfyi.org/statewide/2026-09-28/iedc-boasts-businesses-moving-to-indiana-eyes-supercomputer-and-space-academy - [2026-09-09] Braun's own press office has explicitly reframed his position toward letting localities decide, stating the state is "I'm also surprised that several of them have gone the other way to approve it... That needs to be a big community discussion because for the small counties, it would definitely lower property taxes" rather than backing a statewide ban. https://www.abc57.com/news/Gov-Mike-Braun-surprised-at-amount-of-data-center-moratoriums - [2026-09-09] Braun's spokesperson confirmed his approach is to "encourages locals to evaluate whether tax abatements are necessary because the companies already want to be in a state like Indiana," but the state is not there to "tell local communities what to do," explicitly signaling opposition to a top-down statewide prohibition in favor of local autonomy and incentive reform. https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/indiana-counties-response-to-data-centers-reflects-broader-political-risk - [2026-09-09] The administration's substantive response to data-center controversy has been regulatory refinement (rate-structure and interconnection-cost protections via Public Law 217/HB 1007, GenCo cost-separation at NIPSCO, IURC technical conferences), not a blanket moratorium — indicating the state's policy trajectory is toward conditional permitting, which this market's own resolution criteria would treat differently than a default-prohibition. https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/indiana-counties-response-to-data-centers-reflects-broader-political-risk - [2026-10-01] Confirmed 2027 session mechanics: the Indiana General Assembly convenes January 12, 2027, with a bill-introduction deadline of April 29, 2027 and a pre-file date of November 17, 2026 — meaning any statewide moratorium bill would need to clear committee, both chambers, and the Governor's desk within this single roughly 15-week window, the only such window before the Dec 31, 2028 deadline besides a hypothetical 2028 short session (which, like 2026, would be budget-light and procedurally constrained). https://www.multistate.us/resources/2027-legislative-session-dates - [2026-09-xx] Senate leadership is set to change for 2027, with Sen. Chris Garten poised to become President Pro Tem after Rodric Bray's departure — Bray's Senate Utilities Committee was precisely the body that killed HB 1333's moratorium-adjacent farmland provision in 2026, and there is no public indication the incoming leadership is more sympathetic to a moratorium than the outgoing. https://www.indianahouserepublicans.com/members/leadership/todd-huston/ - [2026-09-01] House Speaker Todd Huston continues to frame legislative priorities around budget-era "infrastructure investments that support Hoosiers, businesses and our growing" economy, consistent with continued pro-growth rather than pro-restriction posture heading into the 2027 budget session. https://www.indianahouserepublicans.com/members/leadership/todd-huston/ - [2026-09-09] Even Indianapolis/Marion County's own binding local moratorium — the strongest moratorium action taken anywhere in the state — is explicitly temporary and development-oriented, with the city expecting to use the pause to draft a revised zoning ordinance (not a permanent ban) by August 2027, reinforcing that the trajectory even locally is toward conditional regulation rather than lasting prohibition, undercutting the case that local momentum will convert into a true statewide default-prohibition. https://fox59.com/news/metropolitan-development-commission-unanimously-approves-data-center-moratorium/ - [2026-09-09] An infrastructure analyst's assessment that Indiana has been building "more sophisticated protections" through contract design and regulatory oversight rather than prohibition suggests the state's chosen policy tool to manage backlash is ratepayer/interconnection-cost allocation, not a moratorium — a path that does not satisfy this market's enactment criterion even if further codified. https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/indiana-counties-response-to-data-centers-reflects-broader-political-risk BOTTOM LINE: With a Republican supermajority and a governor explicitly favoring local-option, abatement-reform, and ratepayer-protection tools over a statewide ban, with the 2026 session's only moratorium-adjacent bill already killed in the Senate, and with just one realistic legislative window (Jan–Apr 2027) remaining before the deadline, the structural, personnel, and policy-direction evidence strongly favors continued inertia and a NO resolution. NOT FOUND: No statement from incoming Senate leadership (Garten) or Speaker Huston specifically rejecting or supporting a statewide moratorium; no pre-filed 2027 statewide moratorium bill text as of October 2, 2026; no polling of Indiana General Assembly members' views on a statewide (vs. local) moratorium.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean · re-drawn after crux research
crux research
The first round disagreed: the draws' mean 0.20 sits 0.18 from the same-question market "this polymarket market" at 0.38. One more research loop went after the crux and every draw below was redone with its report.
first-round draws: 15%, 20%, 15%, 25%, 23% · crux loop: 4 searches, 0 page reads
report: crux
CRUX: The decisive fact is whether Indiana's Governor and GOP legislative leadership will back (or at least not block) a *mandatory, statewide* data-center pause in the 2027 long session or 2028 short session — as opposed to continuing to favor local-option control, conditional regulation, and revenue-sharing, which is what killed the one 2026 bill (HB 1333) that came closest to a moratorium-type restriction. - **2026-02 (House passage, Senate death):** Indiana HB 1333 passed the House 54-45 in February 2026 but stalled in the Senate Utilities Committee; the controversial 'permitted use' farmland provision was explicitly rejected. Its revenue-related piece was folded into HB 1210. (datacenterbans.com, servercountry.org) - **2026-03-12:** HEA 1210 / Public Law 157 was enacted, signed March 12 and effective July 1; it added a local-payment mechanism but did not impose a moratorium or repeal the underlying tax exemption. (servercountry.org, Indiana Dept. of Revenue) - **2026-03 (Mirror Indy/WFYI retrospective):** Despite nearly a dozen bills filed, little new regulation of the industry was advanced; most legislation focused on making sure communities see some of the financial benefits rather than slowing development. A separate bill requiring a state utility-commission study of data-center electricity demand (HB 1245) also died without a hearing. (wfyi.org) - **2026-07-29 (Governor Braun's stated position):** Despite a headline framing him as "pushing for data center moratoriums," his actual remarks show the opposite of a statewide mandate: he noted 33 of the state's 92 counties have enacted local ordinances to strictly regulate or ban data centers, and said each county and community needs to make their own determination because there are economic advantages to hosting. He added that he supports data center development as long as companies ensure they are not raising utility rates or harming local water supply. (abc57.com) — i.e., Braun favors local choice plus guardrails, not a statewide ban. - **2026-09 (Indiana tracker, servercountry.org/datacenterbans.com):** No statewide moratorium bill is currently pending; the only state-level measures on record are HB 1210 (enacted, revenue-sharing) and HB 1333 (failed). HB 1333 would have conditioned and limited data center sales-and-use tax exemptions; passed the House Feb 2 but died without a Senate Utilities hearing. - **2027 session timing:** The next legislative session begins the first full week of January 2027 and runs through late April; given the odd-numbered year, it will be a "long session," during which legislators largely focus on the state's biennial budget. No statewide moratorium bill has yet been pre-filed for 2027 as of early October 2026 (no search result identifies one). - **Legislative composition:** Indiana remains a Republican trifecta with Republicans controlling the governorship and both legislative chambers, holding a 70-30 majority in the House. - **National pattern (context, not Indiana-specific):** Among comparable states, statutory statewide moratoria have not been enacted anywhere; New York's governor ordered a statewide data-center moratorium via executive order in July 2026, and Texas's governor issued his own executive order ban in August 2026 — both executive, not legislative, actions that would not qualify under this question's "enactment" definition, and Indiana has shown no comparable executive or legislative moratorium push. BOTTOM LINE: The evidence strongly favors the "No" side of the disagreement. There is no pending or pre-filed statewide Indiana moratorium bill, the one 2026 bill resembling a restriction died in the Senate, the enacted law was revenue-sharing only, and Governor Braun's own words explicitly endorse local-option decision-making over a statewide mandate — directly undercutting the thesis that Braun or GOP leadership might greenlight a statewide pause in 2027-28. This evidence pulls toward the forecasters' lower (~0.20-0.23) estimates rather than the market's 0.375. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any 2027 pre-filed statewide moratorium bill, no statement from House/Senate leadership (Speaker Huston, Senate President Pro Tem Bray) endorsing a statewide pause, and no polling on Hoosier statewide (vs. local) support for a moratorium.
claude-opus-5-5
55% conf
Yes 22%
No 78%
(0) Resolution check: not met. The 2026 session produced no statewide moratorium. HB 1333 died in Senate Utilities, and the enacted HEA 1210 is revenue-sharing only. Trackers through late September 2026 list only local/county pauses (e.g., Indianapolis through 2027), which are excluded. (a) About 27 months remain, covering the 2027 long budget session (Jan-Apr) and a 2028 short session; Indiana has no citizen initiative, so only the legislature can act. (b) Status quo is No: no statewide bill is pre-filed, and the GOP trifecta (70-30 House, 39-10 Senate) controls hearings. (c) No: Gov. Braun keeps his stated July/September 2026 position that each county decides, plus ratepayer and water guardrails; leadership channels backlash into abatement reform and interconnection cost allocation, which are conditional measures that do not count. (d) Yes: local backlash (about a third of counties with moratoria or bans) becomes a 2028 election issue, and legislators pass a statute suspending approvals or interconnection for facilities over 100 MW until an objective condition is met. I price below the market's 0.375 because no state has yet enacted such a moratorium by statute (Maine vetoed; New York and Texas used executive orders, which do not count), the governor explicitly favors local option, and no 2027 bill exists. The long horizon and bipartisan grassroots salience keep a meaningful tail.
claude-opus-5-5
50% conf
Yes 22%
No 78%
(0) Not met. As of 2026-10-02, trackers (datacenterbans.com, servercountry.org, CAC) show no statewide Indiana moratorium enacted or pending. The only moratoria are local (Indianapolis/Marion through 2027, plus 25+ counties), which the rules exclude. (a) About 27 months remain, but realistically only two legislative windows: the 2027 long budget session (Jan 12 to late April) and the 2028 short session. Indiana has no citizen initiative. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is No: HB 1333 died in the Senate Utilities Committee, and the enacted HEA 1210 is only revenue-sharing. (c) NO scenario: the GOP supermajorities (70-30 House, 39-10 Senate) and Gov. Braun keep favoring local option, ratepayer protections and abatement reform. Braun has explicitly said each county should decide and has touted data-center economic development. That leaves 2027-28 output as conditional regulation, which does not qualify. (d) YES scenario: grassroots backlash, now 33 counties restricting data centers with a bipartisan populist tone, pushes legislators ahead of the 2028 elections to pass a mandatory pause on large-load (>100MW) interconnections until grid or water standards are met. Red-state executive actions, such as Texas's, may make that politically acceptable. The market sits at 0.375 on a thin, two-day-old book that is already falling, and it seems to price national momentum. The research shows zero statutory statewide moratoria enacted anywhere, no pre-filed Indiana bill, and leadership and the governor oriented against a statewide mandate. I therefore shade well below the market, while keeping meaningful weight on the fast-moving politics and the broad qualifying definition.
claude-opus-5-5
52% conf
Yes 24%
No 76%
(0) The condition is not met. As of 2026-10-02, trackers (datacenterbans.com, servercountry.org, CAC materials) show only local and county moratoria in Indiana, such as Indianapolis through 2027. These are excluded because the rules require a statewide measure. The 2026 session produced only HEA 1210 (revenue-sharing), while HB 1333 died in Senate Utilities. (a) About 27 months remain, but realistically there are only two legislative windows: the 2027 long budget session (Jan–Apr) and the 2028 short session. Indiana has no citizen initiative, and executive orders do not count. (b) Status quo is No: no statewide bill has been pre-filed, and the GOP supermajorities (70-30 House, 39-10 Senate) have favored revenue-sharing and ratepayer protections. Governor Braun has explicitly said each county should decide for itself and has touted data-center-linked economic development. (c) No scenario: the 2027 session handles backlash through cost-allocation, disclosure, and siting conditions, which permit data centers subject to conditions and so do not qualify. Local moratoria keep absorbing the pressure, and leadership never gives a statewide pause a hearing. (d) Yes scenario: grassroots backlash keeps growing (33 of 92 counties have restrictions, plus bipartisan midterm pressure, and Texas and New York governors have taken executive action), grid-strain findings emerge, and lawmakers pass a temporary pause on 100MW+ facilities until a study or rules are completed in 2027 or 2028. Nationally, no state has yet enacted a statutory moratorium; Maine's and Vermont's were vetoed and New York's was done by executive order. I anchor on the market's 37.5%, but it has thin two-day history and has already fallen from 47.5%. The specific evidence on Braun's local-option stance, GOP control, and the zero-for-twelve national base rate justifies moving well below it, while I keep meaningful probability for fast-moving politics over two sessions.
gpt-5.6-sol
73% conf
Yes 22%
No 78%
(0) The condition has not already been met: Indiana’s official bills page provides no qualifying enactment, while September 2026 trackers show only local moratoria, failed HB 1333, and enacted revenue-sharing law HEA 1210, none of which satisfies the statewide statutory requirement. (a) About 27 months remain until December 31, 2028, leaving the 2027 long session and 2028 short session for a qualifying law to be enacted. (b) If nothing changes, the market resolves No because Indiana currently relies on local pauses, incentive reform, studies, and ratepayer protections rather than a mandatory statewide prohibition. (c) The main No scenario is that GOP supermajority leadership continues blocking moratorium legislation while Governor Braun maintains his stated preference for local choice and guardrails, as occurred when HB 1333 stalled in the Senate in 2026. (d) A Yes scenario is that expanding local opposition and organized advocacy produce a 2027 or 2028 bill suspending statewide permitting or interconnection for new data centers, potentially limited to facilities above 100 MW, which then clears both chambers and becomes law. I price Yes at 22%, below Polymarket’s 37.5% anchor, because no bill is pending, Braun has not endorsed a statewide pause, and the national reference class has produced virtually no qualifying statutory enactments, although the long runway and widespread local moratoria preserve a meaningful path to passage.
gpt-5.6-sol
72% conf
Yes 22%
No 78%
(0) The condition has not already been met: the official Indiana General Assembly page provides no qualifying enactment, while the September 2026 trackers identify only local moratoria, failed HB 1333, and enacted revenue-sharing legislation that does not qualify. (a) Roughly 27 months remain until December 31, 2028, encompassing the 2027 long session and 2028 short session; Indiana would still need to enact a mandatory statewide statutory or constitutional pause during that period. (b) If nothing changes, No wins because current local bans, incentive changes, studies, and regulatory guardrails are expressly insufficient under the market rules. (c) The main No scenario is continued Republican leadership support for local choice and ratepayer protections: Governor Braun has endorsed community-level decisions, the 2026 restriction-adjacent bill died in the Senate, and no 2027 statewide moratorium bill is pending. (d) The Yes scenario is that the rapidly expanding network of local moratoria and organized bipartisan opposition generates a 2027 or 2028 bill suspending statewide approval or interconnection of new large data centers, which then clears the legislature and becomes law. I anchor on Polymarket's 37.5% Yes price but reduce it to 22% because the market appears to underweight the zero-enactment national base rate, Indiana's failed 2026 effort, the absence of leadership or gubernatorial support, and the distinction between abundant local action and the required statewide enactment.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws · second round
22% (60% confidence)
Yes: 22% No: 78%
Mean of 5 draws (0.22, 0.22, 0.24, 0.22, 0.22) after one crux research pass. (0) Resolution check: not met. The 2026 session produced no statewide moratorium. HB 1333 died in Senate Utilities, and the enacted HEA 1210 is revenue-sharing only. Trackers through late September 2026 list only local/county pauses (e.g., Indianapolis through 2027), which are excluded. (a) About 27 months remain, covering the 2027 long budget session (Jan-Apr) and a 2028 short session; Indiana has no citizen initiative, so only the legislature can act. (b) Status quo is No: no statewide bill is pre-filed, and the GOP trifecta (70-30 House, 39-10 Senate) controls hearings. (c) No: Gov. Braun keeps his stated July/September 2026 position that each county decides, plus ratepayer and water guardrails; leadership channels backlash into abatement reform and interconnection cost allocation, which are conditional measures that do not count. (d) Yes: local backlash (about a third of counties with moratoria or bans) becomes a 2028 election issue, and legislators pass a statute suspending approvals or interconnection for facilities over 100 MW until an objective condition is met. I price below the market's 0.375 because no state has yet enacted such a moratorium by statute (Maine vetoed; New York and Texas used executive orders, which do not count), the governor explicitly favors local option, and no 2027 bill exists. The long horizon and bipartisan grassroots salience keep a meaningful tail.
5. Entry Decision Opus 5.5 trader
Side
no
Position Size
$500
Contracts
794
Trader Confidence
60%
Trade rationale
This bet is with the favourite: the market prices YES at 37.5% and the forecast is 22.4%, so both sit on the NO side. That has been the book's profitable type of trade (23 wins, 5 losses closed). The rationale gives concrete reasons. HB 1333 died in Senate Utilities in 2026. The bill that did pass, HEA 1210, only shares revenue. No statewide bill has been pre-filed for 2027. Gov. Braun has said in public that each county should decide. Indiana has no citizen initiative, so only the legislature can pass one. No state has passed a moratorium by statute so far: Maine's governor vetoed one, and the New York and Texas actions were executive orders, which don't count here. All five forecasts landed between 22% and 24%, and forecaster confidence is a middling 0.60. The 15pp edge alone would justify a normal-sized position.
Allocation logic
Size is cut to the $500 minimum because of concentration. The book already holds 7 NO bets on state data-center moratoriums, about $6.25k in total. One of them is a $1,000 NO on this same Indiana question with an end-2027 deadline, so a 2027 law would lose both bets. This contract only adds exposure to the 2028 session, so a small top-up is right.
Entry price: $0.63
Current: $0.73
Status: OPEN
P&L: $75.93
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 129.7s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.