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How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026? — At least 40
28%
Agent
33%
Market Price
-4.8%
Edge
57%
Confidence
4,079
Volume
7.0c
Spread
91
Days to resolution
6
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.28, 0.28, 0.28, 0.30, 0.27). (0) The condition is not yet met. The latest verifiable figure is about 26 patients (company disclosure, June 2026; Patient 26 implanted May 20). Unverified social-media chatter puts it at 27-28. No source shows 30+, and Neuralink's updates page returned no data. (a) About three months remain before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. (b) Status quo: the H1 2026 pace of roughly 1.5 patients per month (21 in January to about 26-28 by June) projects to the mid-to-high 30s by year-end, just short of 40. (c) NO: enrollment keeps its steady, slot-limited pace across the PRIME, CONVOY, VOICE and international sites. Blindsight and hearing do not dose anyone in 2026, the total ends around 33-38, and no confirmed disclosure of 40 arrives before resolution. (d) YES: the transdural/R1 surgical simplification, new sites (UAE, UK, Canada) and the October U.S. speech trial drive a year-end push. Late 2025 offers a precedent, when the count rose from 12 to about 20 in roughly three months to hit a target, and Neuralink publishes a total of 40 or more. Anchor: Kalshi trades at 33% mid (28/35, last close 27%), down from 55% as months passed without updates. Musk's record of 2-3x overpromising, plus the risk that any year-end tally is not confirmed in time, leads me to shade slightly below the mid.
price vs. prediction
market price
agent forecast at t+0
17 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen:
kalshi_direct
resolution_source
kalshi_related
polymarket_related
wikipedia
article_search
Planner reasoning
The Kalshi price is the anchor. Neuralink's cumulative implant count has been reported in company updates and Musk posts; a Wikipedia page and a targeted article search on the latest official participant count give us the current tally. Related markets on both venues act as independent crowds to cross-check against.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports)
Tools
- kalshi_direct: ## This Market's Kalshi Data **At least 40** (KXNEURALINKCOUNT-26-40) - Current price (probability): 33.00% (live; bid 28% / ask 35%) - Last daily close (2026-09-28): 27.00% - 7-day price change: -1.00% - 30-day price change: -7.00% - Average daily volume: 62 contracts - Price range: 27.00% - 55.00% - Data points: 27 days
- resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page only shows the generic 'Updates' navigation/title from Neuralink's website with no text content about implant counts or patient numbers.
- kalshi_related: 0 related markets / summaries. series KXNEURALINKCOUNT: 0 markets (skipped 6 no-signal) | keyword 'Neuralink': no matches
- polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 5 matches. keyword 'Neuralink': 5 markets
- wikipedia: Fetched 1 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
- article_search: Fetched 18 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=60d). 'Neuralink number of patients implanted total participants 2026': 10 articles | 'Neuralink implant count update Musk': 10 articles
Research loops, bottom lines
- current state: As of the most recent verifiable disclosures (company figure of 26 patients as of June 2026, reiterated by multiple sources through September 2026), Neuralink remains well short of the 40-patient threshold with only three months left before the contract's Jan 1, 2027 deadline; reaching 40 would require roughly doubling the pace of enrollment seen over the first nine months of 2026.
- base rate: The historical base rate strongly favors gradual, sub-linear growth rather than the exponential "high-volume" targets Musk has repeatedly announced (e.g., "20-30 in 2025" became ~12-13; "1,000+ in 2026" is tracking at ~26-27 through mid-2026); extrapolating the actual observed pace (roughly 5-6 new patients per 4-5 months in H1 2026) to year-end 2026 implies a total in the mid-30s, making "at least 40" plausible but not assured without a confirmed acceleration in H2 2026.
- yes case: The strongest YES case rests on (1) the documented capacity for rapid step-jumps in disclosed totals (12→21 in 4 months), (2) a genuine surgical simplification (transdural, faster R1 insertion) removing the bottleneck multiple sources blame for the slower 21→26 pace, and (3) several newly launching or expanding parallel enrollment arms (VOICE, a Q4 U.S. speech-to-text trial, Blindsight, hearing) that are additive to the PRIME base count — together these create a plausible, evidence-backed (if no
- no case: Every verifiable, company-sourced patient count found through the most recent trade-press coverage (Sept 19 and Sept 24, 2026) still anchors at 21 (formal Jan 2026 disclosure) to at most 26-27 (unverified social-media mentions from ~June 2026); no official Neuralink statement above that range exists, Blindsight/Hearing contribute zero, VOICE contributes only a few, and Musk's history of 2-3x overpromising on patient-volume and production timelines are strong structural reasons to expect the year
tools
| tool | status | time | items | summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi_direct | OK | 0.2s | 1 | ## This Market's Kalshi Data **At least 40** (KXNEURALINKCOUNT-26-40) - Current price (probability): 33.00% (live; bid 28% / ask 35%) - Last daily close (2026-09-28): 27.00% - 7-day price change: -1.00% - 30-day price change: -7.00% - Average daily volume: 62 contracts - Price range: 27.00% - 55.00 |
| resolution_source | OK | 2.6s | 1 | already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page only shows the generic 'Updates' navigation/title from Neuralink's website with no text content about implant counts or patient numbers. |
| kalshi_related | OK | 0.5s | 0 | 0 related markets / summaries. series KXNEURALINKCOUNT: 0 markets (skipped 6 no-signal) | keyword 'Neuralink': no matches |
| polymarket_related | OK | 0.4s | 5 | Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 5 matches. keyword 'Neuralink': 5 markets |
| wikipedia | OK | 0.2s | 1 | Fetched 1 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages). |
| article_search | OK | 0.4s | 18 | Fetched 18 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=60d). 'Neuralink number of patients implanted total participants 2026': 10 articles | 'Neuralink implant count update Musk': 10 articles |
research loops
·
4/4 ok ·
21 searches ·
9 page reads
| dimension | status | time | searches | page reads | report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current state | OK | 36s | 6 | 3 | 4124 chars |
| base rate | OK | 34s | 6 | 1 | 4734 chars |
| yes case | OK | 53s | 5 | 3 | 5955 chars |
| no case | OK | 34s | 4 | 2 | 5538 chars |
report: current state
- [2026-01-28] Neuralink's official "Two Years of Telepathy" blog/statement confirmed
it now has 21 total participants enrolled in trials worldwide, an increase from the 12 people the company in September said had received its chips
, with zero serious device-related adverse events reported to date.
- [2026-05-18] At a Tel Aviv summit,
the company was reported to have 21 patients and plans to chip healthy people by 2030
, with Neuralink president DJ Seo separately stating the firm aims to implant an otherwise-healthy person by 2030.
- [2026-05-20] A Vancouver police sergeant, described as "Patient 26,"
was implanted on May 20, 2026, and is the first patient to receive the through-the-dura surgery
, with the procedure performed jointly with UHN Toronto neurosurgeons — indicating the running total had reached roughly 26 by that date.
- [2026-05-??] Prior to that,
the company had seven patients enrolled in the GB PRIME study in Great Britain as of May 2026
, part of the international expansion (US, Canada, UAE, UK).
- [~2026-06-??] A secondary report (Basenor) said Neuralink
has reached its 26th patient in its ongoing human clinical trials, according to a post shared by Whole Mars Catalog on X... a notable jump from the 21 total participants confirmed globally as recently as January 2026
.
- [2026-09-25] A neurotech-industry roundup (NeurotechMag), updated as of Sept 25, 2026, still cites the company's most recent official disclosure as
"26 total participants across its studies by June 2026, up from 21 in January, with trial sites now open in the UK, the UAE, and Canada alongside the original US program"
— i.e., no newer official company figure above 26 could be found as of late September 2026.
- [2026-09-??] A finance/stock-tracking blog (optimusk.blog), current as of September 2026, likewise lists
"26 patients enrolled globally (per June 2026 disclosure)"
as the latest confirmed clinical figure, while also noting continued functional milestones (wheelchair control demo on July 23, 2026; first female patient Audrey Crews highlighted Aug 26, 2026, though she was implanted earlier, in July 2025).
- [2026-07-14] A clinical-trials tracker (Tesorb), last substantively updated mid-July 2026, still listed the company total at 21 (as of Jan 28, 2026) and flagged that a next-generation implant "with three times current capability" was promised for "later this year" by Musk but had not been independently confirmed.
- [2026-01-05 / 2026-01-02] Multiple outlets reported Musk's year-end 2025 announcement that Neuralink would move to "high-volume production" and largely automated surgery in 2026, with the confirmed patient count at that time standing at 12 (as of September 2025).
- No source found confirms a company-disclosed total of 40 or more unique implanted patients at any point in 2026; the highest substantiated figure is 26 (company disclosure, June 2026), with an unverified secondary/X-sourced claim of "26th patient" reiterated into mid-2026.
- [2026-09-19 / 2026-09-24] Independent trade-press roundups published in September 2026 (Tesorb "Neuralink vs. Synchron," Sept 19; "R1 surgical robot," Sept 24) continued to frame Neuralink's clinical progress around the same ~21–26 patient range without citing any new, higher official total.
NOT FOUND: A specific, dated, company-issued patient count newer than the June 2026 figure of 26 (i.e., no confirmed official update from July–September 2026 updating the total beyond 26). Could not access Neuralink's own "Updates" blog page directly (JavaScript-rendered, no text retrievable) to check for a more recent primary disclosure. No evidence found of any official count reaching 30, 35, or 40 patients in 2026.
BOTTOM LINE: As of the most recent verifiable disclosures (company figure of 26 patients as of June 2026, reiterated by multiple sources through September 2026), Neuralink remains well short of the 40-patient threshold with only three months left before the contract's Jan 1, 2027 deadline; reaching 40 would require roughly doubling the pace of enrollment seen over the first nine months of 2026.
report: base rate
- **[2024-01-29]** Neuralink implanted its first human patient, Noland Arbaugh,
Musk announced that Neuralink had successfully implanted a device in a human, later identified as Noland Arbaugh
. By 2024 close, only ~3 patients had received implants total. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink
- **[2025-01-11]**
Neuralink's brain-computer device had been implanted in a third patient, with plans for about 20 to 30 more implants in 2025
— this 2025 forecast proved far too optimistic. Source: https://fortune.com/2025/01/11/elon-musk-neuralink-third-patient-implanted-brain-device-fda-studies
- **[2025-09]**
As of September 2025, 12 people with severe paralysis worldwide had received Neuralink implants, using them to control digital and physical tools with thought
— actual 2025 pace (12, not 20-30) confirms a pattern of Musk's targets running 2-3x ahead of reality. Source: https://www.foxnews.com/health/elon-musk-shares-plan-mass-produce-brain-implants-paralysis-neurological-disease
- **[2025-10-28]**
Neuralink had implanted 13 humans as of October 28, 2025—10 in the US, 2 in Canada, 1 in the UK
, showing roughly one new patient per month in late 2025. Source: https://www.neurapod.com/blog/neuralink-implants-humans-2025
- **[2025-12-13]**
The team reached completion of its target of implanting devices in 20 patients before 2026
, confirming an end-of-2025 total around 19-20. Source: https://www.neurapod.com/blog/neuralink-successfully-completes-goal-of-20-implants-by-2026
- **[2026-01-28/29]**
Neuralink had grown from 12 to 21 trial participants since September 2024, with zero serious device-related adverse events reported; 21 people now had devices embedded in their skulls
. Source: https://www.technology.org/2026/01/29/neuralink-brain-chips-connect-21-minds-to-machines/
- **[2026-05-20/06-22]**
Patient 26, Lee Marten, was implanted on May 20, 2026; by late June a Neuralink patient posted that the "cyborg family" had grown to 27
. Source: https://www.neurapod.com/blog/neuralink-update-2026
- **[2026-06-22]**
Reaching 26 implanted patients marked a notable jump from 21 confirmed in January 2026, but reaching 26 implanted patients in roughly 2.5 years of human trials was described as "a modest but steady pace" for an early-stage technology
. Source: https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/neuralink-reaches-26th-patient-in-ongoing-brain-computer-interface-trials
- **[2024-07-11]**
Musk stated in a social-media reply, "Over 1,000 is achievable in 2026,"
an estimate widely flagged at the time as
"likely very optimistic and classic Musk."
Actual mid-2026 totals (~26-27) are roughly 2.5-4% of that original target. Source: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-over-1000-humans-neuralink-implants-2026/
- **[2025-01-16]** An independent outside-view estimate from MIT Technology Review, looking only at confirmed open trial slots, projected
Neuralink would carry out at least two more implants by the end of 2025 and eight by the end of 2026
— a far more conservative model than Musk's public statements, and one that undershot actual mid-2026 numbers (~26-27) but illustrates how unreliable both company guidance and simple trial-slot math have been in either direction. Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/16/1110017/what-to-expect-from-neuralink-in-2025/
- **[2025-02 / Wikipedia]**
A 2025 systematic review estimated that about 80 people worldwide had received implantable brain-computer interfaces
across all companies combined (Neuralink, Synchron, Chinese competitors like Neuracle, etc.), indicating Neuralink itself is a minority share of a still-tiny global reference class. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noland_Arbaugh
- **[2026-09-30]** No confirmed public patient-count update more recent than the ~26-27 figure (May/June 2026) was found despite searching through September 2026; Neuralink has not issued a widely reported new tally since then.
BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate strongly favors gradual, sub-linear growth rather than the exponential "high-volume" targets Musk has repeatedly announced (e.g., "20-30 in 2025" became ~12-13; "1,000+ in 2026" is tracking at ~26-27 through mid-2026); extrapolating the actual observed pace (roughly 5-6 new patients per 4-5 months in H1 2026) to year-end 2026 implies a total in the mid-30s, making "at least 40" plausible but not assured without a confirmed acceleration in H2 2026.
NOT FOUND: No official Neuralink or Musk statement giving a precise cumulative patient count after June 2026 (i.e., no confirmed figure for July, August, or September 2026); no primary company press release or SEC-style filing with an exact running total; no explicit "40th patient" announcement.
report: yes case
YES means: Neuralink has implanted 40 or more unique human individuals with its brain-computer interface device by January 1, 2027 — i.e., the cumulative unique-patient count crosses the 40 threshold at some point before the contract closes.
- [2026-01-28] Neuralink's own "Two Years of Telepathy" disclosure confirmed
Neuralink said on Wednesday it now has 21 total participants enrolled in trials worldwide, an increase from the 12 people the company in September said had received its chips
, showing the company itself is willing to publicly report large jumps (9 in 4 months) when international sites come online — the single fastest documented growth spurt to date.
- [2026-09-01] A Tesorb analysis dated September 1, 2026 states
Twenty-six patients have been implanted globally as of June 2026, up from 21 in January
and separately notes
Needle cartridge costs have dropped 95%, from $350 to $15
, with a 37,607-sq-ft Austin facility expansion underway — infrastructure consistent with a company preparing for materially higher implant throughput in H2 2026.
- [2026-06-30] The same Tesorb piece reports
On June 30, Neuralink completed its first transdural implant in Toronto. The R1 surgical robot pushed threads through the intact dura, eliminating the need for a durectomy
, a surgical simplification explicitly framed as "making higher-volume implantation plausible" — a concrete mechanism (not just guidance) for a pace acceleration in the second half of 2026.
- [2026-09-24] A Tesorb deep-dive on the R1 robot (published Sept 24, 2026) describes the device threading
Sixty-four times. One thousand twenty-four electrodes. The entire insertion phase takes roughly 11 minutes
, with the full procedure down to about two hours and a stated company target of under 30 minutes — if automation milestones land even partially in Q4, surgical-capacity bottlenecks (the main constraint cited across sources) could ease quickly.
- [2026-04-16] TeslaNorth reported via Bloomberg that
Neuralink to Begin Human Trials of Thought-to-Text Brain Implant in October. Elon Musk's brain implant company Neuralink is preparing to launch a new clinical trial in the U.S. this October that will focus on reading speech from thoughts
— a brand-new enrollment arm opening in Q4 2026 that would add unique patients on top of PRIME/CONVOY/VOICE's existing ~26-27.
- [2026-09-19] An ABC News-sourced report notes a third VOICE communication patient ("Terry") was implanted in 2026, and independently states
Neuralink has so far implanted its device in more than twenty people worldwide, counting both the PRIME and VOICE trials
— confirming VOICE is an actively growing, separate enrollment stream layered on top of PRIME's patient count.
- [2026-05-07/20] Musk and Neuralink announced a next-gen R1 robot variant
that its next-generation surgical robot can place electrode threads into virtually any region of the human brain — a capability that moves the company's ambitions well past motor-function restoration and into the territory of treating Parkinson's disease, refractory epilepsy, and treatment-resistant depression
, which, combined with Blindsight (FDA Breakthrough-designated, human trials "planned for 2026" per the Tesorb tracker) and the newly confirmed hearing-restoration track, implies multiple non-overlapping patient pools (blind patients, deaf patients, movement-disorder patients) that could each contribute new unique individuals before year-end if any of these begin dosing.
- [~2026-06] A secondary/X-sourced claim (via the Tesorb tracker's indexed "Related Signal" headline) referenced a count of "28 patients" alongside the robot/2030-healthy-person story, suggesting informal tracking already had the total above 26 by around the same time as the official June figure — consistent with continuous, uncaptured incremental enrollment between official company disclosures rather than a plateau.
- [2025-07-11 / ongoing] Musk's original claim that
Neuralink Has 28 Patients, a Robot That Reaches Any Brain Region, and a Plan to Implant Healthy People by 2030
(Tesorb headline) indicates the company's own internal narrative by mid/late 2026 was already being framed around numbers past 26, even if not yet independently confirmed at 40.
- [2026-09-01] The same Tesorb wheelchair-control piece notes industry expectation that despite Musk's 1,000-implant target being unrealistic,
Analysts expect several hundred by year end
— even a heavily discounted version of "several hundred" (e.g., if analysts are off by 5-10x, as has been the historical pattern) would still clear the 40-patient bar.
- [2026-09-01] Competitive pressure is also a secondary accelerant: the same report notes rival Precision Neuroscience
has performed intraoperative recordings on 37 patients
and Synchron is preparing a pivotal FDA trial, giving Neuralink commercial incentive to visibly out-enroll competitors before year-end reporting cycles.
BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on (1) the documented capacity for rapid step-jumps in disclosed totals (12→21 in 4 months), (2) a genuine surgical simplification (transdural, faster R1 insertion) removing the bottleneck multiple sources blame for the slower 21→26 pace, and (3) several newly launching or expanding parallel enrollment arms (VOICE, a Q4 U.S. speech-to-text trial, Blindsight, hearing) that are additive to the PRIME base count — together these create a plausible, evidence-backed (if not yet confirmed) pathway from ~26-28 patients in mid-2026 to 40+ by January 1, 2027.
NOT FOUND: No primary Neuralink disclosure, SEC-style filing, or independent clinical-trial registry update showing a confirmed cumulative total above 26-28 as of the report date (October 1, 2026); no confirmation that the October 2026 speech-to-text trial has actually begun enrolling patients; no confirmation that Blindsight or hearing-restoration programs have dosed their first human patient.
report: no case
YES means: Neuralink has NOT reached 40 cumulative unique implanted persons before Jan 1, 2027 (i.e., the question resolves "No" on the 40-threshold contract, meaning fewer than 40 people have received implants).
- [2026-01-28] Neuralink's own "Two Years of Telepathy" disclosure — its only formal, numbered company update of 2026 — set the official count at 21 participants, and no equivalent formal company blog post with a higher number has since appeared; the company's cadence of issuing a big round-number update only roughly once every 4-6 months (Sept 2025→12, Jan 2026→21) argues against a sudden jump to 40 before year-end. Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/elon-musks-neuralink-says-21-183038116.html
- [2026-04-09/2026-07-14] A dedicated clinical-trials tracker that is updated "after each new patient enrollment milestone" still listed the global PRIME total at only "21 globally (all variants)" as its headline figure as late as its July 14, 2026 revision, with the one newer number it could verify (26-27, from X posts) treated as unconfirmed, non-primary chatter rather than a company disclosure. Source: https://tesorb.com/neuralink-clinical-trials-tracker/
- [2026-?] Even the most-cited unofficial bump — patient "CJ" calling himself Neuralink's "24th patient" while a separate post says the "cyborg family has grown to 27" with a new patient labeled "P26" — shows the numbering is already internally inconsistent (24th patient ≠ patient P26 ≠ "27th" family member), undermining confidence that informal social-media tallies reliably track the true unique-person count the contract requires. Source: https://www.neurapod.com/blog/neuralink-update-2026
- [2026-09-19] An ABC News segment on the separate VOICE (speech-restoration) study — a distinct, newer study arm — describes its subject as merely "the third patient to receive a Neuralink device for communication," confirming that Neuralink's newer non-PRIME trial arms (VOICE, Blindsight, Hearing) are still in single-digit enrollment, not contributing many additional bodies toward 40. Source: https://pasqualepillitteri.it/en/news/18724/neuralink-als-patient-love-you-thoughts
- [2026-04-09] The same tracker confirms Blindsight (vision restoration) had zero human patients implanted as of April 2026, with human trials merely "planned for 2026, pending regulatory approval" and no confirmed FDA clearance — removing an entire announced program as a 2026 source of extra implant volume. Source: https://tesorb.com/neuralink-clinical-trials-tracker/
- [2026-09-24/2026-09-19] Trade-press roundups dated as recently as Sept 19 and Sept 24, 2026 continue to frame Neuralink's clinical progress in the same ~21-26 patient range with no newer official total reported, despite this being the most recent available coverage before the question's close. Source: https://tesorb.com/neuralink-clinical-trials-tracker/
- [2025-01-16/2025-01-16] MIT Technology Review's conservative, trial-slot-based model — built only from officially registered open trial slots rather than Musk's rhetoric — projected Neuralink would reach only "eight" cumulative implants by end of 2026 counting just the US and Canada studies, illustrating how far even the as-registered trial capacity lagged the 40 threshold; although actual pace beat that model, it shows the formal regulatory "slot" structure (a handful of spots per site, filled gradually to "allow time to monitor for problems") has historically been the real constraint, not Musk's aspirational numbers. Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/16/1110017/what-to-expect-from-neuralink-in-2025/
- [2026-07-14] The same tracker explicitly flags that Musk's promised "next-generation implant" with 3x capacity, slated for "later this year," "has not been independently confirmed" and that Musk's manufacturing timelines "have consistently run two to three times longer than announced" across Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink alike — a documented historical pattern of guidance slippage that argues against assuming any H2 2026 acceleration materializes in time to add ~15+ more patients by Jan 1, 2027. Source: https://tesorb.com/neuralink-clinical-trials-tracker/
- [2025-01-11] Musk's own January 2025 forecast of "20 to 30 more implants" in 2025 actually produced roughly 9 additional patients by year-end (12→~20), a roughly 2-3x overshoot of stated targets versus actual delivery — the single clearest historical base-rate precedent that Musk's implant-volume promises for 2026 (e.g. "1,000 achievable") should be heavily discounted when extrapolating toward 40. Source: https://fortune.com/2025/01/11/elon-musk-neuralink-third-patient-implanted-brain-device-fda-studies
BOTTOM LINE: Every verifiable, company-sourced patient count found through the most recent trade-press coverage (Sept 19 and Sept 24, 2026) still anchors at 21 (formal Jan 2026 disclosure) to at most 26-27 (unverified social-media mentions from ~June 2026); no official Neuralink statement above that range exists, Blindsight/Hearing contribute zero, VOICE contributes only a few, and Musk's history of 2-3x overpromising on patient-volume and production timelines are strong structural reasons to expect the year-end 2026 total to fall short of 40.
NOT FOUND: No Neuralink-issued (or clinicaltrials.gov-sourced) cumulative patient count dated after approximately June 2026; no "Three Years of Telepathy" or equivalent formal update as of Oct 1, 2026; no confirmed single data point placing the total at 30, 35, or 40 at any time in 2026.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5
50% conf
| Yes | 28% |
| No | 72% |
(0) The condition is not yet met. The latest verifiable figure is about 26 patients (company disclosure, June 2026; Patient 26 implanted May 20). Unverified social-media chatter puts it at 27-28. No source shows 30+, and Neuralink's updates page returned no data. (a) About three months remain before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. (b) Status quo: the H1 2026 pace of roughly 1.5 patients per month (21 in January to about 26-28 by June) projects to the mid-to-high 30s by year-end, just short of 40. (c) NO: enrollment keeps its steady, slot-limited pace across the PRIME, CONVOY, VOICE and international sites. Blindsight and hearing do not dose anyone in 2026, the total ends around 33-38, and no confirmed disclosure of 40 arrives before resolution. (d) YES: the transdural/R1 surgical simplification, new sites (UAE, UK, Canada) and the October U.S. speech trial drive a year-end push. Late 2025 offers a precedent, when the count rose from 12 to about 20 in roughly three months to hit a target, and Neuralink publishes a total of 40 or more. Anchor: Kalshi trades at 33% mid (28/35, last close 27%), down from 55% as months passed without updates. Musk's record of 2-3x overpromising, plus the risk that any year-end tally is not confirmed in time, leads me to shade slightly below the mid.
claude-opus-5-5
50% conf
| Yes | 28% |
| No | 72% |
(0) No source shows 40 reached. Neuralink's resolution page could not be read. The highest substantiated count is 26 from the company's June 2026 disclosure, with informal X-sourced claims of 27-28 around late June. No official update since then has surfaced through late-September trade press. (a) Three months remain until the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. (b) At the observed 2026 pace (about 20-21 at year start, 26-27 by June, roughly 1-1.5 per month), the status quo puts the year-end total in the low-to-mid 30s, short of 40. (c) NO scenario: the pace stays steady, Blindsight and hearing do not dose humans, and the October speech trial adds only a handful, giving roughly 33-37 by year-end. Musk's record of 2-3x overpromising, such as '20-30 in 2025' becoming about 9, supports this. (d) YES scenario: there were undisclosed July-September implants. Transdural surgery, the faster R1 robot, the new speech trial, and the UK, UAE and Canada sites push the pace to about 2+ per month, as in the Sept 2025 to Jan 2026 spurt (12 to 21). A year-end or January 'Three Years of Telepathy' disclosure then reveals 40+. There is also some risk that confirmation lags, or that the count of unique persons is ambiguous. The Kalshi market sits at 33% (bid 28, ask 35; last close 27%) and has been falling. My extrapolation lands slightly below that, so I price Yes at about 28%.
claude-opus-5-5
50% conf
| Yes | 28% |
| No | 72% |
(0) No source shows 40 implants confirmed. The highest substantiated figure is 26 (company disclosure, June 2026), with informal X/blog mentions of 27–28. Neuralink's own updates page could not be read, and trade-press roundups as late as Sept 24 still cite 26. (a) About three months remain until the Jan 1, 2027 deadline, plus any lag before a disclosure confirms the count. (b) Status quo: the observed 2026 pace of about 1.2–1.5 new patients per month (21 in late January, 26 by May 20, about 27 by late June) projects to the mid-30s by year-end, short of 40. (c) NO: enrollment continues at the steady trial-slot pace through the US, Canada, UK and UAE sites; the new speech trial and Blindsight add only a few or none; the year-end tally lands around 32–37. (d) YES: a Q4 push like late 2025's (12 in September to about 20 by mid-December) combines with transdural surgery, a faster R1 robot, the October speech-to-text trial launch and multiple international sites; undisclosed July–September implants already put the count in the low 30s, and a year-end 'Three Years of Telepathy' style post confirms 40+. The unknown July–September count is the main uncertainty. The market sits at 33% (last close 27%). Given Musk's 2–3x overpromising record and the need for roughly 2+ implants per month from mid-year, I lean slightly below the market at 28%.
gpt-5.6-sol
68% conf
| Yes | 30% |
| No | 70% |
(0) The condition is not documented as already met: Neuralink’s fetched Updates page contains no substantive count, while the latest substantiated reporting places the total around 26–27 as of June 2026, so roughly 13–14 additional unique people still need confirmed implants before January 1, 2027. (a) About three months remain from October 1 until the deadline. (b) If nothing changes from the latest verifiable count, the market resolves No by a wide margin. (c) The No scenario is continued gradual enrollment under regulatory and surgical constraints, with VOICE adding only a few patients and announced Blindsight or hearing programs failing to begin implanting in time. (d) The Yes scenario requires a sharp fourth-quarter acceleration through multiple international sites, the new speech-to-text trial, and faster transdural R1 procedures, comparable to or faster than the previously documented 12-to-21 jump in four months. I anchor on Kalshi’s 33% Yes price but move modestly lower because September trade coverage still cited only about 21–26 patients, no source confirmed even 30, and Neuralink has historically missed implant-volume guidance; uncertainty from unpublished recent procedures and the inaccessible official page keeps Yes substantial.
gpt-5.6-sol
67% conf
| Yes | 27% |
| No | 73% |
(0) The condition is not documented as met: Neuralink's resolution-source page yielded no substantive count, while late-September reporting still cited roughly 26 participants and found no confirmed total of 40. (a) About three months remain until January 1, 2027, so Neuralink would need to implant at least 14 additional unique people from the latest substantiated count, or roughly 12 if informal claims of 28 are accurate. (b) If the documented pace and disclosure status remain unchanged, the cumulative total finishes below 40 and the market resolves No. (c) The No scenario is continued gradual enrollment constrained by regulatory trial slots and monitoring, consistent with the rise from 21 in January to only about 26-27 by June and the absence of a newer count through September. (d) The Yes scenario requires a sharp Q4 acceleration through faster transdural robotic surgery and parallel VOICE or new speech-to-text trial enrollment, resembling the earlier nine-patient jump over four months but at an even faster pace. I anchor on Kalshi's 33% Yes price and move modestly lower because the newest trade-press checks found no confirmed progress beyond June, Musk's volume forecasts have historically overshot delivery, and the proposed new trial arms had not yet been confirmed to be implanting at scale.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws
28%
(57% confidence)
Yes: 28%
No: 72%
Mean of 5 draws (0.28, 0.28, 0.28, 0.30, 0.27). (0) The condition is not yet met. The latest verifiable figure is about 26 patients (company disclosure, June 2026; Patient 26 implanted May 20). Unverified social-media chatter puts it at 27-28. No source shows 30+, and Neuralink's updates page returned no data. (a) About three months remain before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. (b) Status quo: the H1 2026 pace of roughly 1.5 patients per month (21 in January to about 26-28 by June) projects to the mid-to-high 30s by year-end, just short of 40. (c) NO: enrollment keeps its steady, slot-limited pace across the PRIME, CONVOY, VOICE and international sites. Blindsight and hearing do not dose anyone in 2026, the total ends around 33-38, and no confirmed disclosure of 40 arrives before resolution. (d) YES: the transdural/R1 surgical simplification, new sites (UAE, UK, Canada) and the October U.S. speech trial drive a year-end push. Late 2025 offers a precedent, when the count rose from 12 to about 20 in roughly three months to hit a target, and Neuralink publishes a total of 40 or more. Anchor: Kalshi trades at 33% mid (28/35, last close 27%), down from 55% as months passed without updates. Musk's record of 2-3x overpromising, plus the risk that any year-end tally is not confirmed in time, leads me to shade slightly below the mid.
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 103.4s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.