Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This resolves on Google's Year in Search 2026 Global Movies list #1, which is published in early-mid December 2026 with data typically cut off around late November — a key issue since Avengers: Doomsday is currently slated for December 18, 2026. I need the Polymarket price anchor, the list of competing 2026 releases, historical base rates for which movies top the list (and whether late-December releases ever win), and confirmation of Doomsday's release date and hype level.

# Current state Polymarket prices this contract at just 7% (down sharply from a 49.5% high 30 days ago), while Google's actual 2026 "Year in Search" Movies list has not yet been released (expected mid-December 2026, per historical pattern). Doomsday's Dec 18, 2026 release date remains locked in with no reported delays, and its marketing (trailer, cast livestream) is generating record-setting engagement, but resolution depends entirely on Google's spike-based ranking methodology and data-cutoff window, not on hype alone. # Timeline of key events - 2019-04: Avengers: Endgame released; later confirmed as 2019 Google Year in Search #1 movie (code_execution). - 2021-12: Spider-Man: No Way Home released; won 2021 Year in Search despite Dec release (code_execution). - 2022-12: Avatar: The Way of Water released; won 2022 Year in Search despite Dec release (code_execution). - 2023-07: Barbie released; won 2023 Year in Search global #1 (NME, confirmed). - 2024-06: Inside Out 2 released; won 2024 Year in Search global #1 (Al Jazeera, confirmed). - 2025 (mid-year, per methodology docs): Google's 2025 data collection window closed ~Nov 25, 2025 (trends.withgoogle.com, confirmed methodology). - 2026 (date unspecified, "late July/August" per research pass): Avengers: Doomsday's Dec 18, 2026 date reconfirmed as stable, no delays (Wikipedia, Variety — confirmed). - 2026-07-31: Spider-Man: Brand New Day released; trailer hit all-time record 719M views/24hrs (Variety, MovieWeb — confirmed). - 2026 (undated, pre-release): Avengers: Doomsday trailer hits 503M views/24hrs (2nd all-time, Disney record); cast-reveal livestream hits 275M views (Variety, IMDb — confirmed). - 2026-12-18: Avengers: Doomsday scheduled release (confirmed, Wikipedia). - 2026-12-25: Dune: Part Three scheduled release, one week after Doomsday (ScreenRant — reported). - ~2026-12 (mid-Dec, expected): Google 2026 Year in Search list to be published, per annual pattern (rumored/expected, not yet occurred). # Event Will Avengers: Doomsday top Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global "Movies" list? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No direct Kalshi price found — 0x5ff... ticker data not present in raw research; only Polymarket data available. **Polymarket YES = 7.0%**, down from a 49.5% high and down 42.5% over 30 days (7-day change: +1.1%, stabilizing). Volume: $53,398 total. This sharp decline suggests market sentiment shifted against Doomsday, likely coinciding with Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record-breaking 719M-view trailer and its own July 31 release generating massive pre-Dec search activity. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket price / rivals** — Doomsday priced at 7% YES; no rival-title markets found in the same event group (polymarket_related: 0 matches). 2. **Release date** — Confirmed Dec 18, 2026, no delays reported as of research date (Wikipedia, Variety). 3. **2020-2025 winners/release timing** — 2019 Endgame (Apr), 2021 No Way Home (Dec), 2022 Avatar: The Way of Water (Dec), 2023 Barbie (Jul), 2024 Inside Out 2 (Jun); 2020/2025 global winners not confirmed in this pass. 4. **Late-Dec releases topping the list** — Yes: No Way Home (Dec 2021) and Avatar 2 (Dec 2022) both won despite December release, a 2/7 (28.6%) historical rate — this appears to conflict with the claimed Nov 25 data cutoff, suggesting pre-release trailer/hype searches (not just post-release) count heavily and can accumulate before the cutoff. 5. **Competing 2026 releases** — Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Jul 31, all-time trailer record 719M views), Dune: Part Three (Dec 25), The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, Nolan's The Odyssey (Jul 17); no confirmed data on Supergirl/Mandalorian/Toy Story 5/Shrek 5/Moana search traction (claude_news silent). 6. **Buzz vs prior winners** — Doomsday trailer: 503M views/24hr (2nd all-time, Disney record); cast livestream 275M views (most-viewed cross-platform livestream ever); record-breaking presales, exhibitors adding showtimes 4 months out — buzz level is exceptional, though second to Spider-Man's trailer record. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Wikipedia] Doomsday release date: Dec 18, 2026, stable/confirmed. 2. [Variety/IMDb] Trailer 503M views/24hr; livestream 275M views — both records for Disney/Marvel. 3. [trends.withgoogle.com] 2025 data window: Jan 1–Nov 25, 2025 (spike-based methodology). 4. [NME/Al Jazeera/code_execution] Recent winners: Barbie (2023), Inside Out 2 (2024), both released mid-year, not December. 5. [code_execution] Superhero-genre base rate among 2018-2024 winners: 3/7 (42.9%); Dec-release winners: 2/7 (28.6%). # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no direct competitor market found; unrelated tangential matches only (polio, Pirates cast). - Polymarket: 7% YES, high volatility (4.3%-49.5% range), recent downward trend likely tied to Spider-Man's trailer record and July release generating rival search momentum. - Sportsbook implied: none available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - ScreenRant/Variety: Doomsday remains "most anticipated movie of 2026" across outlets despite MCU fatigue narratives. - claude_news synthesis flagged (but internally contradicted by code_execution) that Dec releases may fall outside the Nov cutoff — historical precedent (No Way Home, Avatar 2) undercuts this concern somewhat. - code_execution model recommends 25-35% as a tempered, non-overconfident estimate blending genre/timing base rates with field-size dilution. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Exceptional pre-release marketing metrics (trailer/livestream records), Dec release date matches historical winning pattern (No Way Home, Avatar 2), first Avengers ensemble since Endgame (2019 winner). - **No**: Polymarket pricing has collapsed to 7% (from 49.5%), reflecting real-time sentiment; Spider-Man: Brand New Day set all-time trailer record and already captured mid-year search dominance; crowded Dec field (Dune 3 one week later) could split late-year search share; genre/franchise base rate is well under 50%. # Gaps / unknowns - No confirmed 2025 or 2020 Year in Search global movie winner. - No Kalshi-specific price for this exact ticker (only Polymarket data available). - Reason for Polymarket's 42.5% 30-day price collapse not directly explained in research (inferred from Spider-Man trailer timing). - No search-interest data for Supergirl, Mandalorian and Grogu, Toy Story 5, Shrek 5, Moana live-action. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES (best available anchor): 7%. - Historical genre/timing base rates: 28.6%-42.9% depending on framing; tempered blended estimate ~19-38% (code_execution). - Actual market pricing (7%) sits well below historical base-rate models, implying market has priced in strong competition (esp. Spider-Man: Brand New Day) and/or skepticism about Dec release timing advantage.

1. Both forecasts converge on identical 12%/88% splits despite ostensibly independent reasoning, and neither seriously grapples with the brief's explicit flag that the Nov 25 cutoff theory is "internally contradicted by code_execution" — the historical evidence (No Way Home, Avatar 2 both won despite Dec release) actually undercuts the cutoff-as-headwind narrative more than either forecast credits, since it implies pre-release spikes alone can win the whole year even for a Dec 18 release. 2. Neither forecast interrogates why Polymarket collapsed from 49.5% to 7% with only $53k volume and a stated "reason... not directly explained in research (inferred)" — treating an unexplained, thinly-traded, highly volatile price swing as strong "decisive, informed" signal is a reference-class error; thin markets with 42.5-point drops in 30 days are prone to overreaction/manipulation, and the brief itself only "infers" the Spider-Man causal story rather than confirming it. 3. Both anchor almost entirely on Polymarket while the code_execution model's base-rate blend (25-35%, tempered to 19-38%) is dismissed with only a token "nudge" — given genre base rate 42.9% and Dec-release base rate 28.6%, and Doomsday satisfying both criteria (Marvel ensemble + Dec release) plus having the strongest comparable buzz metrics of any titled contender, a final estimate as low as 12% arguably underweights the base-rate evidence relative to the single volatile market price. 4. Neither forecast addresses the asymmetry that Doomsday is "first Avengers ensemble since Endgame (2019 winner)" — this specific franchise/precedent match (same franchise won before) is a stronger analog than the generic superhero-genre base rate, and deserves more explicit weight than a passing mention. 5. Neither addresses field-dilution risk quantitatively: with Spider-Man (mid-year winner-caliber trailer), Dune 3 (one week after Doomsday), and several unscored titles (Supergirl, Mandalorian, Toy Story 5, Shrek 5, Moana) explicitly flagged as "no confirmed data," the true uncertainty band should probably be wider than the tight 12% both models converged on — the "gaps/unknowns" section undermines confident precision at exactly 12%. 6. Both forecasts state confidence 0.45 and 0.61 while producing identical point estimates, which is itself an inconsistency — the higher-confidence forecaster (gpt-5.6-sol) provides no additional evidence or narrower reasoning to justify greater certainty than the lower-confidence one; this convergence suggests anchoring on each other or on Polymarket rather than genuine independent calibration.

15% (53% confidence)

Yes: 15% No: 85%

The only market anchor (Polymarket, 7% YES on thin $53k volume after a poorly-explained 42.5-point collapse) argues strongly for No, but the red-team is right that a low-liquidity, highly volatile price with an only-inferred causal story deserves less than full deference. Offsetting base-rate evidence is real: Marvel/superhero titles won 3/7 recent years, December releases won 2/7 (No Way Home, Avatar 2) — which directly rebuts the Nov 25 cutoff-as-fatal-headwind story, since pre-release spikes alone can win — and Doomsday is the first Avengers ensemble since Endgame (a prior winner) with the second-largest trailer debut ever and record presales. Against that, Spider-Man: Brand New Day set the all-time trailer record and had a full post-release July window inside the data collection period, Dune: Part Three lands a week after Doomsday, and several unscored contenders dilute the field, so search share is genuinely fragmented. I therefore settle modestly above both forecasts and above the market at 15%, splitting the difference between the 7% market signal and the 25-35% base-rate model while acknowledging the wide uncertainty band the brief's data gaps imply.

Total pipeline time: 198.8s