Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news congress_bills gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a long-dated political question whose probability hinges almost entirely on (a) whether Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms and (b) whether a Democratic majority would actually vote out articles of impeachment given the 2019/2021 precedents and current leadership signals. The Polymarket price is the primary anchor; cross-venue and 2026-midterm-control markets give the key conditional inputs.

# Current state The House has NOT passed any article of impeachment against Trump in the 119th Congress; Republicans hold the majority and have tabled every Democratic impeachment resolution by comfortable margins (most recently 237-140 on 2025-12-11). Resolution requires only a House floor majority (no Senate trial/removal needed), so the market hinges on (1) whether Democrats retake the House in Nov 2026 midterms and (2) whether a Dem majority would actually bring articles to a floor vote — leadership (Jeffries) has been noncommittal/discouraging on this. # Timeline of key events - 2025-01-09: MTG introduces resolutions to expunge Trump's 2019/2021 impeachments (confirmed, symbolic, no bearing on this market). - 2025-04-29: Rep. Thanedar drafts 7 articles of impeachment (confirmed, wdet.org). - 2025-05-13/14: Thanedar forces privileged resolution (H.Res. 353); backs down after leadership/colleague backlash (confirmed, CNN/Detroit News). - 2025-05-15: Al Green introduces H.Res. 415 impeachment articles (confirmed, congress.gov). - 2025-06: House tables Green's H.Res. 537 (confirmed, govtrack). - 2025-12-11: House votes 237-140 to table Green's H.Res. 939; 47 Dems vote "present," 23 vote to table; 140 members support advancing — a rise from June (confirmed, The Hill/FreeSpeechForPeople). - 2026-04-06: Rep. Larson introduces new impeachment resolution (H.Res. 1155) (confirmed, congress.gov). - 2026-04-23: Rep. Issa introduces resolution to expunge both prior impeachments (confirmed, congress.gov, symbolic GOP counter-move). - 2026-04: Jeffries says impeachment "of course not" a top priority if Dems win House (confirmed, The Hill). - 2026-06-14: Jeffries says Dems "haven't ruled anything in or out" on accountability (confirmed, Washington Times). - 2026-06-29: Wilbur Ross warns impeachment "likely" if Dems win midterms (reported, Newsweek). - 2026-08-24: Al Green introduces 5th impeachment article, H.Res. 1486 (confirmed, congress.gov/Washington Times). - 2026-08-24-26: Reports of Kushner-Jeffries private meeting amid GOP fears of House loss; Jeffries frames accountability as "moments," not firm commitment (reported, Axios/ibtimes). # Event Will the US House pass one or more articles of impeachment against Trump (simple majority) before Jan 20, 2029? Senate trial/conviction/removal NOT required. # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20 (matching ticker/question): **YES ≈ 66%**, +3% (7d), +5% (30d), range 60-68% over 90 days, avg daily volume ~1,696 contracts — trending upward. Note: a *different* Kalshi market, KXTRUMPREMOVE ("impeached AND removed"), sits at only 14% — a much stricter outcome not applicable here but useful context on market segmentation. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket price/history**: 63% current, down from a 72% high; -4.5% (7d), -1.5% (30d); $96k volume over 140 days — directionally consistent with but ~3pts below Kalshi's 66%. [polymarket_direct] 2. **Dem House 2026 odds**: No direct Kalshi/Polymarket House-control market was returned, but Kalshi's "Next Speaker — Hakeem Jeffries" prices at 77% (implying markets lean Dem-favored for House control), and news signals (Kushner-Jeffries meeting, GOP "bracing for House defeat") point to elevated Dem takeover odds, though some analysts (Harry Enten) warn of "dire" Dem midterm prospects. [kalshi_related, gdelt_news] 3. **119th Congress resolutions**: At least 5 Al Green impeachment resolutions (H.Res. 415, 939, 1486, plus earlier ones) and one from Thanedar (H.Res. 353) and Larson (H.Res. 1155); all tabled. Dec 11, 2025 table vote: 237-140 (140 supporting advance, up from June's lower count), 47 Dems voted "present," 23 Dems voted to table. [congress_bills, claude_news] 4. **Historical base rate**: Under Dem-controlled House with Trump as president, articles passed twice (2019, 2021) out of two opportunities. Under GOP-controlled House (2017-18, 2025-26), zero passages despite multiple attempts (58-364 loss in 2017; all 2025-26 resolutions tabled). Nixon resigned pre-vote; Clinton impeached under GOP House; Andrew Johnson impeached 1868. Base rate strongly conditioned on opposition-party House control. [wikipedia] 5. **Leadership stance**: Jeffries has explicitly said impeachment is "not a top priority" (Apr 2026) and later softened to "haven't ruled anything in or out" (Jun 2026) and "moments of accountability" (Aug 2026) — consistently non-committal, not a pledge to impeach. A senior House Dem told Axios impeachment is unlikely ("major time suck") absent also winning the Senate. [claude_news] 6. **Active predicates**: Immigration enforcement/ICE conduct (Green's stated grounds), Supreme Court defiance and unilateral agency abolition (Thanedar's articles), plus general "accountability" rhetoric — no single dominant scandal (Epstein files not explicitly cited in resolutions per this research). [claude_news, wikipedia] 7. **Compound probability model**: Code-execution grid (P(Dem House)=0.55-0.85 × P(pass|Dem)=0.15-0.50) yields range 8.7%-42.7%, central estimate ~20.7% (using P(Dem)≈0.68, P(pass|Dem)≈0.30). Market prices (63-66%) imply the market assumes either much higher P(Dem House) and/or higher P(pass|Dem) than this base-case model, or that markets are pricing near-certainty of a floor vote occurring given ~3 years of runway and repeated attempts even under GOP control. [code_execution] # Key facts 1. [congress_bills] 5+ impeachment resolutions filed against Trump in 119th Congress; all referred to Judiciary or tabled on floor. 2. [thehill.com] Dec 11, 2025 floor vote to table: 237-140, with rising Dem support (140) vs. earlier June vote. 3. [claude_news] Jeffries has not committed to impeachment if Dems win the House; several Dems view it as "futile" without Senate control. 4. [wikipedia] Trump was impeached twice previously (2019, 2021) — both times occurred with Dem House majorities. 5. [kalshi_related] KXNEXTSPEAKER-Jeffries at 77%, signaling market-implied likelihood Dems become House majority. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: KXTRUMPREMOVE at 14% (stricter "removed" outcome); KXNEXTSPEAKER-Jeffries 77%; Democratic Sweep (House+Senate+Presidency 2028) at 55%. - Polymarket: This market's own price 63% (declining from 72% high); unrelated "Trump out as President by Aug 31" at 0.15% (near-zero, different/narrower criterion). - Sportsbook: none found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Wilbur Ross: impeachment "likely" if Dems win midterms (partisan-adjacent source, plausibly hyperbolic). [gdelt_news] - Washington Times: impeachment could be "an exercise in futility" without Senate majority too. [claude_news] - Newsweek: many Dems view past impeachments as having "backfired," fueling reluctance. [claude_news] # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Rising Dem floor-vote support trend (June→Dec 2025), possible Dem House majority in 2026, ~2.5 years of remaining term for new predicates to emerge, elevated Kalshi/Polymarket pricing (63-66%) already reflect this bullish case. - **No**: GOP holds House currently and has tabled every attempt; Jeffries/leadership explicitly non-committal, prioritizing "affordability" over impeachment; Fermi/base-rate model centers near 20%, well below market price, suggesting markets may be overpricing Yes. # Gaps / unknowns - No direct Dem-House-2026-control market price was retrieved to calibrate P(Dem House) precisely. - Unclear whether "Yes" market pricing (63-66%) reflects genuine probability estimate or momentum/narrative trading given thin volume (~$96k Polymarket). - No information on Epstein-files-specific impeachment predicate strength. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price (anchor): **66%** (KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20), Polymarket 63%. - Historical precedent: both prior Trump impeachments occurred only under Dem House control (100% conditional rate historically, n=2); GOP House has never advanced impeachment articles despite many attempts. - Fermi/base-rate model central estimate: ~20% (compound P(Dem House)×P(pass|Dem)), substantially below market consensus — flag as key divergence for calibration.

1. Both forecasters converge on ~57-61%, essentially splitting the difference between the Kalshi/Polymarket anchor (63-66%) and the brief's independent Fermi/base-rate model (~20.7% central estimate) without rigorously justifying why the compound model is so far off — neither explains whether the market is wrong or the base-rate assumptions (P(pass|Dem)=0.15-0.50) are too pessimistic; they just "discount" the anchor by a fixed amount. 2. Both treat Kalshi's "Next Speaker — Jeffries" price (77%) as a clean proxy for P(Dem House 2026), but this is a derivative market that could itself be inflated by the same narrative/momentum trading flagged as a risk for the impeachment market itself ("unclear whether Yes market pricing reflects genuine probability estimate or momentum/narrative trading given thin volume ~$96k"); neither forecaster discounts this proxy for its own potential mispricing. 3. Neither forecaster grapples with the ambiguity in the Dec 11, 2025 vote breakdown — "47 Dems voted 'present,' 23 vote to table" — treating "140 supporting advance" as a clean pro-impeachment signal, when "present" votes are a weaker, ambiguous signal (avoiding both tabling and clear advancing) that shouldn't be equated with committed support for floor passage. 4. Both omit explicit discussion of the timing/runway constraint: even under the 2019 precedent, formal impeachment took ~11 months after Democrats gained the House; if Democrats win in Nov 2026, they'd have roughly two years to investigate, draft, and pass articles by Jan 2029 — this compressed but plausible timeline deserves explicit weighting rather than a vague "long runway" mention. 5. Neither forecaster meaningfully engages with the countervailing "Dire" midterm signal (Harry Enten) cited in the brief, nor discounts Wilbur Ross's "likely" comment as a partisan-adjacent, plausibly hyperbolic source as the brief itself flags — both implicitly treat Dem House takeover as near-certain (>75%) without incorporating this uncertainty into their P(Dem House) term. 6. The two forecasts are highly correlated in both direction and magnitude (0.57 vs 0.61) despite claiming independent reasoning, suggesting limited diagnostic value from having two forecasts — neither explores a tail scenario where a narrow Dem majority exists but moderate/swing-district Dems (worried about backlash, per Newsweek's "backfired" framing) block a floor vote entirely, which could push the true probability well below both estimates.

55% (58% confidence)

Yes: 55% No: 45%

The question decomposes into P(Democrats win the House in Nov 2026) × P(a Democratic House actually passes articles by Jan 2029). Market-implied Dem House control is ~75-80% (Jeffries next-Speaker at 77%), but that derivative proxy is itself thin and narrative-driven, and analysts like Enten flag genuine midterm uncertainty, so I use ~0.72-0.78. The conditional term is the crux: history is 2-for-2 under Dem majorities and Al Green's privileged resolutions would force uncomfortable floor votes with ~2 years of runway, but Jeffries has repeatedly declined to commit, senior Dems call it futile without the Senate, front-liners fear backlash, and the Dec 2025 tally is softer than it looks (47 'present' votes are not committed support). That yields a compound estimate near 0.35-0.45, well below the 63-66% market anchor but well above the brief's ~21% Fermi base case, which understates the forcing mechanics of privileged resolutions and the long horizon. I land at 0.55 — below both prior forecasts and the market, respecting the anchor's information content while giving weight to the shared flaw the critique identified (uncritical acceptance of near-certain Dem control plus leadership follow-through).

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