Scan: Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-16	92%	93%	71%

1. Planner Opus 5

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct claude_news claude_news polymarket_related kalshi_related gdelt_news wikipedia

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What are the current NPM Prices / implied valuations for Anthropic and OpenAI, and what is the gap?
What is the most recent primary funding round valuation for each (OpenAI ~$500B tender, Anthropic ~$350B round) and are new rounds in progress?
Is either company planning an IPO or direct listing before Dec 31, 2026, which would change the resolution source?
How have the two companies' secondary-market valuations trended over the past 6-12 months (is Anthropic closing the gap)?
What are revenue run-rates and growth trajectories for each company, which drive valuation marks?
What does the current Polymarket price imply, and is there any cross-venue (Kalshi) or related-market signal?

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket question comparing Anthropic's vs OpenAI's private valuations on NPM as of Dec 31, 2026. The key drivers are current NPM secondary-market pricing, recent/rumored primary funding rounds (OpenAI ~$500B, Anthropic ~$350B), and any IPO plans. I need the market anchor, current news on both companies' valuations, and cross-venue signals.

2. Research

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.5s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? - Current price (probability): 90.00% - 7-day price change: -2.50% - 30-day price change: +6.50% - Total volume: $57,061 (USD notional) - Price range: 63.50% - 94.50% - Data points: 90 days
claude_news	OK	24.5s	12	Based on research findings: - Anthropic's latest primary round: Series H closed May 28, 2026 at $65B raised, Anthropic raised $65 billion in Series H funding led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital, valuing the company at $965 billion post-money — surpassing OpenAI
claude_news	OK	23.0s	14	## Key Findings IPO Plans: - Both companies have confidentially filed IPO paperwork: Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC on June 1, while OpenAI followed exactly one week later, on June 8, announcing the filing itself rather than letting it leak (futuresearch.ai). - Anthropic
polymarket_related	OK	3.0s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'OpenAI valuation': 0 markets \| keyword 'Anthropic': 0 markets \| keyword 'OpenAI IPO': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	2.8s	2	2 related markets / summaries. keyword 'OpenAI': ok \| keyword 'Anthropic': ok \| keyword 'AI valuation': no matches
gdelt_news	OK	94.3s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=60d). 'Anthropic valuation secondary market': 10 hits \| 'OpenAI valuation tender offer': 10 hits \| 'Nasdaq Private Market OpenAI Anthropic': error HTTPSConnectionPool(host='api.gdeltproject.org', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=30)
wikipedia	OK	0.3s	2	Fetched 2 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5, 8676 chars

# Current state As of late August 2026, Anthropic's NPM/secondary-market valuation (~$1.1–1.5T per multiple secondary sources) exceeds OpenAI's latest primary-round valuation (~$852B, reconfirmed via August tender). Resolution depends on NPM Price data (or public market cap if either IPOs) specifically as of Dec 31, 2026 — over a year away from the question's actual close date implied by data (period ends 2026-12-31; today's research is dated Aug 2026), so significant time remains for both trajectories, new rounds, and possible IPOs to shift the outcome. # Timeline of key events - 2026-01-07: Anthropic signs term sheet for $10B round at $350B valuation (confirmed, cnbc.com). - 2026-03-31: OpenAI closes $122B round at $852B post-money valuation (confirmed, valueaddvc.com). - 2026-05-28: Anthropic closes Series H, $65B raised at $965B post-money — first time Anthropic's primary valuation exceeds OpenAI's (confirmed, anthropic.com). - 2026-06-01: Anthropic confidentially files S-1 with SEC (confirmed, futuresearch.ai). - 2026-06-08: OpenAI confidentially files S-1 (confirmed, futuresearch.ai). - 2026-06-25/28: Reports OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut (reported, Forbes/Benzinga). - 2026-07-09/10: Secondary markets price Anthropic at ~$1.2T, "overtaking OpenAI" (reported, Business Insider/TheNextWeb). - 2026-07-20: OpenAI sees "resurgence of interest" in secondary markets (reported, Business Insider). - 2026-08-10/11: OpenAI completes $7B employee tender offer, reconfirming $852B valuation (confirmed, TechCrunch/ibtimes). - 2026-08-12: NPM prices Anthropic at $702.07/share (~$1.1–1.2T implied) (confirmed, nasdaqprivatemarket.com). - 2026-08-13/14: Reports Anthropic targeting ~$2T IPO valuation in October 2026, potentially largest IPO ever (reported, Fortune/Forbes); Business Insider cites $1.5T secondary valuation same week (reported — note internal inconsistency across sources, $1.1T–$1.5T range). - 2026-08-20: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar tells staff company targets public listing "by 2027" (reported, sacra.com). - 2026-08-25: Forge Global prices OpenAI secondary shares at $721.85 (~consistent with $850B range) (confirmed, forgeglobal.com). - Ongoing: Kalshi market "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" prices Anthropic at 94% (up from 24% 90 days ago), suggesting strong market consensus Anthropic lists first. # Event Kalshi/Polymarket cross-listed event: which company (Anthropic or OpenAI) has the higher valuation, per NPM Price (or public market cap post-IPO), as of Dec 31, 2026. # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (Anthropic higher valuation) - No (OpenAI higher valuation) # Kalshi market anchor No direct Kalshi YES price was returned for this specific ticker in raw research (kalshi_direct tool output absent); Polymarket equivalent shows current price 90% (Yes/Anthropic), down 2.5% over 7 days but up 6.5% over 30 days, range 63.5%–94.5%, volume ~$57K (thin). Treat 90% as best available cross-venue anchor given no direct Kalshi print was retrieved. # Sub-question answers 1. **Current NPM prices/gap** — Anthropic ~$1.1–1.5T (NPM: $702.07/share ~Aug 12; secondary reports range $1.1T–$1.5T) vs OpenAI ~$852B (Forge: $721.85/share, Aug 25, consistent with tender price). Gap: Anthropic ahead by roughly $250B–$650B depending on source (valueaddvc.com, nasdaqprivatemarket.com, forgeglobal.com, Business Insider). 2. **Latest primary rounds** — OpenAI: $122B round closed 2026-03-31 at $852B, reconfirmed via $7B tender Aug 2026 at same price. Anthropic: Series H closed 2026-05-28, $65B raised at $965B post-money — no update indicating a newer primary round since then (anthropic.com, valueaddvc.com). 3. **IPO plans before Dec 31, 2026** — Both filed confidential S-1s (Anthropic June 1, OpenAI June 8, 2026). Anthropic reportedly targeting Sept/Oct 2026 listing at $1.82T–$2T valuation (Fortune, KuCoin, futuresearch.ai forecast median Oct 26, 2026). OpenAI reportedly delaying to 2027 per Reuters/CFO comments (Forbes, sacra.com). If Anthropic IPOs in 2026, resolution would shift to public market cap, likely locking in a large Anthropic lead. 4. **6-12 month valuation trend** — Anthropic has moved from $350B (Jan 2026) → $965B (May) → $1.1–1.5T (secondary, Aug), a rapid ascent; OpenAI static at $852B since March 2026 (three sources: reconfirmed via tender in August at same price). Gap is widening in Anthropic's favor, not closing. 5. **Revenue run-rates** — Anthropic: $47B ARR (mid-May) → $65B annualized run-rate (end of July 2026); bankers reportedly underwriting to $190-200B 2028 revenue (futuresearch.ai, CNBC). OpenAI: ~$13B 2025 revenue, ~$20B+ annualized recently, $20.9B operating loss (valueaddvc.com, Reuters). 6. **Cross-venue signals** — Polymarket prices this exact event at 90% Yes (Anthropic). Related Kalshi market "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" shows Anthropic at 94% (up sharply from 24% three months ago), reinforcing expectation Anthropic both IPOs first and likely retains higher valuation. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [anthropic.com] Anthropic Series H, $65B raised, $965B post-money, closed 2026-05-28. 2. [valueaddvc.com] OpenAI $122B round, $852B post-money, closed 2026-03-31; reconfirmed via $7B tender Aug 2026. 3. [nasdaqprivatemarket.com] NPM Anthropic share price $702.07 as of 2026-08-12. 4. [forgeglobal.com] Forge OpenAI share price $721.85 as of 2026-08-25. 5. [futuresearch.ai] Both companies confidentially filed S-1s in June 2026. 6. [Kalshi related market] "OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first — Anthropic" priced 94%, up from 24% 90 days prior. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: IPO-first market strongly favors Anthropic (94%), consistent with Anthropic maintaining valuation lead if it IPOs first at a premium. - Polymarket (this market): 90% Yes (Anthropic), volatile 30-day range (63.5%-94.5%), thin volume ($57K) — low liquidity, moderate confidence signal. - No direct sportsbook signal available; no additional Polymarket-related matches found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Fortune/KuCoin: Anthropic IPO could value it at $1.82T–$2T, "largest IPO ever," eclipsing SpaceX — speculative, unconfirmed pricing. - Forbes: questions whether $2T Anthropic valuation signals "AI bubble territory." - futuresearch.ai forecasting model: median Anthropic IPO Oct 26, 2026 at $1.82T; OpenAI IPO median July 2027 at ~$1.06T — if accurate, OpenAI wouldn't even be public by Dec 31, 2026, keeping NPM as resolution source with Anthropic far ahead. - Some reports (Business Insider, Aug 14) cite $1.5T Anthropic secondary valuation vs. NPM's implied ~$1.1-1.2T — source discrepancy suggests valuation marks are volatile/inconsistent across secondary platforms. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (Anthropic)**: Strong support — primary round lead since May 2026 ($965B vs $852B), secondary/NPM marks extending lead to $1.1-1.5T, 2x revenue run-rate, faster IPO timeline (potentially locking in premium before Dec 31), corroborated by both Polymarket (90%) and related Kalshi IPO-race market (94%). Opposing: OpenAI could announce a large new round or accelerate IPO; single-source valuation claims (e.g., $2T) unconfirmed; if OpenAI IPOs at outsized valuation before Anthropic, dynamics could flip, though current reporting suggests OpenAI more likely delayed to 2027. - **No (OpenAI)**: Weak support — static $852B valuation since March, revenue lagging, IPO reportedly slipping to 2027. Would require a major new mega-round, an accelerated/premium IPO, or Anthropic's IPO faltering/pricing below expectations. # Gaps / unknowns - No direct Kalshi YES price for this exact ticker was retrieved (only Polymarket 90% and a related Kalshi IPO-race market at 94%) — should confirm actual Kalshi print. - No confirmed data closer to the actual Dec 2026 resolution date; all evidence is from Jan–Aug 2026, leaving ~4 months of unknown developments. - Conflicting secondary valuation figures for Anthropic ($1.1T NPM vs $1.5T Business Insider vs $2T IPO speculation) not reconciled. - Uncertain whether either IPO actually completes before Dec 31, 2026, which would change resolution methodology to public market cap. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket current price: 90% Yes (Anthropic) — primary cross-venue anchor in absence of direct Kalshi data. - Related Kalshi market (IPO-first, Anthropic): 94%, up from 24% three months ago — directionally reinforces Anthropic lean. - Precedent: gap has only widened in Anthropic's favor over 8 months tracked (Jan $350B → May $965B → Aug $1.1-1.5T), while OpenAI has been flat at $852B since March — momentum favors continuation of Anthropic's lead through year-end absent a shock event.

4. Forecasters Opus 5 + GPT-5.6 Sol, in parallel

claude-opus-5

70% conf

Yes	91%
No	9%

Anthropic's primary valuation ($965B post-money Series H, May 2026) already exceeds OpenAI's $852B, which has been static since March 2026 and was reconfirmed at the same price in the August tender. Secondary marks (NPM $702.07/share implying ~$1.1-1.2T; some sources up to $1.5T) extend the lead by $250-650B, and Anthropic's revenue run-rate (~$65B annualized) is multiples of OpenAI's, so the gap has widened, not narrowed, over eight months. Anthropic is also more likely to IPO first (related Kalshi market at 94%, reported Oct 2026 target near $1.8-2T) while OpenAI's listing reportedly slips to 2027, which would lock in Anthropic's lead by Dec 31. Main residual risk is a large new OpenAI mega-round or an Anthropic IPO pricing far below expectations plus ~4 months of unobserved developments, so I stay near the Polymarket 90% anchor rather than pushing higher.

gpt-5.6-sol

76% conf

Yes	91%
No	9%

The current valuation gap points to Yes: Anthropic is marked around $1.1–1.5T in secondary markets versus OpenAI near $852B, while Anthropic’s latest primary valuation also leads $965B to $852B. Valuation and revenue trends reinforce that lead, with Anthropic rising rapidly through 2026 and reporting roughly $65B annualized revenue versus OpenAI’s $20B-plus. IPO evidence also favors Yes because Anthropic is expected to list first, potentially near $1.8–2T, while OpenAI’s listing reportedly may slip to 2027. Starting from the 90% Polymarket anchor, corroboration from the related Kalshi IPO-first market at 94% supports a slight increase to 91%, tempered by uncertain IPO pricing and the possibility of an OpenAI mega-round before year-end.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5

Both forecasters converge suspiciously precisely on 0.910/0.090, essentially just nudging the 90% Polymarket anchor up slightly with near-identical reasoning—neither independently stress-tests the anchor itself, which is thin-volume ($57K) and has swung 63.5%–94.5% in 30 days, suggesting the "true" probability could be less stable than the point estimate implies.

Neither forecast adequately weights the ~4-month information gap before resolution (brief explicitly flags "no confirmed data closer to the actual Dec 2026 resolution date"); given OpenAI's history of large surprise rounds ($122B round, $7B tender) in short windows, a mega-round or valuation reset before Dec 31 is a live tail risk that could compress or flip the gap, warranting more than a passing mention.

Both treat the IPO-timing dynamic as uniformly favorable to Yes, but neither considers the scenario where Anthropic's IPO actually prices below the speculative $1.8–2T range (noted as "unconfirmed pricing" and flagged by Forbes as possible "bubble territory")—a disappointing IPO print could simultaneously become the resolution source AND undercut the lead, a scenario that cuts against Yes despite superficially being "Anthropic IPOs first."

The brief's internal valuation inconsistency ($1.1T NPM vs $1.5T Business Insider vs $2T IPO speculation) is acknowledged by both forecasters as noise, but neither considers whether this volatility itself increases variance around Dec 31 mark-to-market, which is asymmetric risk since OpenAor has been comparatively stable at $852B—stable reference points arguably deserve more weight in a point-in-time resolution than volatile ones.

Neither forecast explores the mechanical resolution-source risk: if only one company IPOs by Dec 31 (likely Anthropic per the brief) while the other remains NPM-priced, the comparison method changes qualitatively (public market cap vs. private secondary mark), which could introduce a mismatch not fully modeled by simply extrapolating current trends.

Both forecasts essentially anchor to Polymarket's 90% without independently deriving a fundamentals-based estimate first and then checking convergence—given the valuation gap is already $250B–$650B on primary rounds alone with widening revenue divergence ($65B vs $20B run-rate), a case could be made for underconfidence rather than the implied caution suggesting they're "not pushing higher" than the anchor.

6. Aggregator Opus 5

92% (73% confidence)

Yes: 92% No: 8%

Anthropic leads on every measurable dimension: primary round ($965B vs $852B), secondary marks ($1.1–1.5T vs ~$852B), and revenue run-rate (~$65B vs ~$20B+), with the gap widening rather than narrowing across eight tracked months while OpenAI has been flat since March 2026. The critique's strongest points — the ~4-month information gap and the risk of a disappointing Anthropic IPO print — are real but largely insufficient to flip the outcome: even an IPO pricing well below the speculative $1.8–2T range (say $1.0–1.2T) would still exceed OpenAI's mark, so No essentially requires an OpenAI mega-round or premium listing that re-rates it above ~$1T, a live but minority scenario. Resolution-source mismatch (public cap vs NPM) adds noise but not clear directional risk given the size of the gap. The thin-volume Polymarket anchor at 90% is noisy, but an independently derived fundamentals view sits slightly above it, so I settle marginally higher at 0.92 rather than defaulting to the anchor.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 178.2s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.