Scan: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-18	42%	46%	47%
2026-08-08	30%	40%	38%

1. Planner Opus 5

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current Polymarket price and recent price trend for 'Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?'
What is the current procedural posture and scheduled trial date in STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON, and is a verdict plausible before July 31, 2027?
Is there reporting of plea negotiations, and would any likely plea involve an admission of guilt (guilty plea) versus a no-contest/Alford plea or a plea to a non-homicide charge?
How strong is the publicly reported evidence (DNA, confession texts, surveillance, family testimony) and has the defense signaled an insanity/competency defense?
What is the base rate of conviction (including guilty pleas) in US state capital/aggravated murder prosecutions, and the base rate of acquittal or mistrial?
Have there been any rulings on death-penalty notice, competency evaluations, venue change, or continuances that could push the trial past mid-2027?
Do other prediction markets (Kalshi, other Polymarket variants) price the same or related questions differently?

Planner reasoning

This is a legal-outcome question hinging on whether Utah's capital murder prosecution of Tyler Robinson yields a homicide conviction (trial verdict or guilty plea) before July 31, 2027. Key drivers are the trial schedule, plea-deal negotiations (a plea WITH admission of guilt counts as Yes; a no-contest/Alford-style plea without admission resolves No), and defense strategies (insanity, competency). The Polymarket price is the primary anchor; news search plus base rates on murder conviction rates fill in the rest.

2. Research

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.3s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? - Current price (probability): 48.50% - 7-day price change: -8.50% - 30-day price change: +0.50% - Total volume: $309,810 (USD notional) - Price range: 33.00% - 57.00% - Data points: 69 days
polymarket_related	OK	2.0s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'Tyler Robinson': 0 markets \| keyword 'Charlie Kirk': 0 markets \| keyword 'death penalty': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	1.8s	1	1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Tyler Robinson': no matches \| keyword 'Charlie Kirk': ok \| keyword 'convicted': no matches
claude_news	OK	24.5s	10	Based on research into State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson: - Preliminary hearing held July 6–10, 2026 (delayed from original May 18 date) at Fourth District Court in Provo. Judge Tony Graf found the continuance "reasonable and necessary to safeguard" Robinson's right to effective counseli
gdelt_news	OK	161.2s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=60d). 'Tyler Robinson Utah trial date': error HTTPSConnectionPool(host='api.gdeltproject.org', port=443): Max retries exceeded with url: /api/v2/doc/doc?query=%28tyler+OR+robinson+OR+utah+OR+trial+OR+date%29+sourcelang%3Aenglish&mode=ArtList&format=json&
wikipedia	OK	0.1s	3	Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	44.0s	0	Decision tree structure: `P(convicted by 7/31/2027) = R × [p_plea × q_admit × 1.0 + (1−p_plea) × c_trial]` - R = P(case reaches a verdict or completed plea before deadline) — the key uncertainty for a Sept 2025-charged, high-profile capital case with only ~22 months of runway (capital trials

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet, 6574 chars

# Current state Tyler Robinson faces aggravated murder and related charges in Utah state court for the killing of Charlie Kirk; as of late August 2026 he has NOT entered a plea, no trial date has been set, and the case is still at the bind-over stage (probable-cause ruling was heard/expected Sept 1, 2026). The death-penalty notice remains contested but intact. Resolution requires an actual judgment (conviction) by July 31, 2027 — a plea without guilt-admission, dismissal, or mistrial-without-retrial-verdict resolves "No." # Timeline of key events - 2025-09-10 — Charlie Kirk shot and killed at UVU; Robinson surrenders 2025-09-11 (confirmed, Wikipedia). - 2025-09-16 — Robinson charged with aggravated murder; death penalty announced (confirmed, Wikipedia). - 2026-05-18 (orig.) → delayed to 2026-07-06/10 — Preliminary hearing held at Fourth District Court, Provo; confession video shown; continuance granted for defense evidence review (confirmed, KSL, TMZ). - 2026-07-29 — Prosecutors push court to force case toward trial, call bind-over "straightforward" (confirmed, Fox News). - 2026-08-11 — Defense written bind-over argument due (reported, ABC News). - 2026-08-12 — No plea entered yet (reported, RedState). - 2026-08-19 — Prosecutors reveal bullet-engraving/political-motive evidence; push for trial on all charges (reported, Fox News/multiple). - 2026-08-25 — Defense seeks camera ban ahead of Sept 1 hearing (reported, Fox News). - 2026-09-01 — Scheduled bind-over probable-cause hearing (confirmed scheduled, Utah County Attorney). - No trial date set as of latest research (confirmed, Courthouse News, late Aug 2026). # Event Will Tyler Robinson be convicted of any criminal homicide offense in State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson by July 31, 2027? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No direct Kalshi ticker found for this event (kalshi_related search returned no match for "Tyler Robinson" or "convicted"; only an unrelated Kirk Cousins NFL market surfaced). Polymarket is the best available cross-market anchor: current price 48.5% YES, down 8.5pp over 7 days, roughly flat (+0.5pp) over 30 days, range 33–57% over 69 days, $309.8K volume — indicating meaningful two-sided uncertainty and some recent softening on conviction-by-deadline. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket price/trend** — 48.5% current, -8.5% (7d), +0.5% (30d); range 33-57% [polymarket_direct]. 2. **Procedural posture/trial timing** — Still pre-trial: bind-over ruling expected Sept 1, 2026; no plea entered; no trial date set as of late Aug 2026 [claude_news, Courthouse News]. Given capital-case complexity (death-penalty litigation, evidence volume), a verdict before July 2027 is uncertain but not implausible given ~11 more months of runway after bind-over. 3. **Plea negotiations** — No plea entered as of Aug 2026; no reporting of negotiations toward a plea deal [RedState]. Base-rate models assume ~70% of capital cases eventually resolve via plea, but no case-specific signal yet. 4. **Evidence strength / insanity defense** — Confession video shown at prelim hearing, bullet engraving/political-motive evidence revealed, witness/family testimony expected [TMZ, Fox News]. No competency/insanity defense reported; defense focus is on death-penalty aggravator/evidence-admissibility challenges (bullet trajectory argument) [claude_news]. 5. **Base rates** — US murder trial conviction rate ~90-95%; ~70% of capital cases resolve by plea historically [code_execution model]. Acquittal/mistrial rates in capital murder cases are low but non-trivial given complexity. 6. **Death penalty notice / continuances** — Death penalty notice contested but upheld; contempt finding against a prosecutor addressed via jury-selection procedures, not case delay; preliminary hearing already delayed once (May→July 2026) for defense evidence review [Courthouse News, KSL]. No trial date set; further continuances plausible given capital-case complexity. 7. **Other markets** — No matching Kalshi market found; Polymarket variant scan returned zero related markets beyond the primary one. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Wikipedia] Kirk shot 2025-09-10; Robinson surrendered 2025-09-11; charged 2025-09-16 with aggravated murder, death penalty sought. 2. [claude_news/KSL] Preliminary hearing held July 6-10, 2026 after delay; confession video presented. 3. [claude_news/Courthouse News] No trial date set as of late Aug 2026; bind-over ruling pending Sept 1, 2026. 4. [claude_news] Death penalty notice remains intact despite defense motions to strike. 5. [claude_news] No plea entered as of mid-Aug 2026; no competency/insanity defense reported. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no matching or comparable market found. - Polymarket: 48.5% YES, volatile (33-57% range), recent downward drift suggests growing perceived risk of non-resolution by deadline (delay risk) rather than acquittal belief. - Sportsbook implied: none available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - [code_execution model] Conditional on the case reaching a verdict/plea by deadline, conviction is near-certain (~87-90%), but overall probability is dominated by "R" — whether resolution (verdict or completed guilty plea) occurs before July 31, 2027. Base-case model estimate: ~48% (range 27-71% across plausible parameter grid), median ~48%. - Capital cases historically take 2-4+ years to reach trial; case charged Sept 2025 gives ~22 months to the July 2027 deadline — tight but not impossible if bind-over/pretrial motions resolve efficiently in fall 2026. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Strong publicly reported evidence (confession, forensic/motive evidence) implies high conviction probability if case reaches judgment; prosecutors pushing aggressively for trial. - **No**: No trial date set, no plea entered, death-penalty litigation and pretrial motions could extend timeline past July 2027; even a mistrial without retrial verdict resolves No; Alford/no-contest plea also resolves No. # Gaps / unknowns - No confirmed trial date; unclear if case can conclude (verdict or full guilty plea) before July 31, 2027. - No Kalshi-specific price found for direct comparison/arbitrage. - Unknown whether Sept 1, 2026 bind-over hearing outcome accelerates or further delays proceedings. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price: 48.5% (primary cross-market anchor, no Kalshi ticker found). - Model-based base case: ~48% (range 27-71%) reflecting dominant "timing/resolution-by-deadline" uncertainty over conviction-given-resolution certainty (~90%).

4. Forecasters Opus 5 + GPT-5.6 Sol, in parallel

claude-opus-5

44% conf

Yes	42%
No	58%

Conditional on the case reaching judgment, conviction is near-certain given the confession video, bullet-engraving/motive evidence and no reported insanity defense (~90%); the binding constraint is timing. As of late Aug 2026 the case is still at bind-over, no plea entered and no trial date set, and capital cases with death-penalty litigation routinely run 2-4 years, making a verdict before the deadline genuinely uncertain. Polymarket's 48.5% YES (down 8.5pp over 7 days, 33-57% range) is the only cross-market anchor and reflects that delay risk rather than acquittal belief. I shade slightly below the 48.5% anchor because of the recent downward drift, ongoing continuance risk, and ambiguity in the market's close date (2026-12-31) which, if it implied an earlier deadline than July 2027, would sharply reduce YES.

gpt-5.6-sol

59% conf

Yes	48%
No	52%

The 48.5% Polymarket YES price is the best available consensus anchor, as no direct Kalshi market exists. The confession video, motive evidence, and high murder-conviction base rate point strongly toward Yes if a judgment occurs by the deadline, while the absence of a reported competency or insanity defense reinforces that assessment. However, the case remains at bind-over with no plea or trial date, and capital-case litigation makes resolution by July 31, 2027 the dominant uncertainty. With no case-specific evidence of an imminent plea and recent market softening likely reflecting delay risk, I remain essentially at the market anchor with a slight lean toward No.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet

**Critical unresolved discrepancy on the resolution deadline**: The brief's stated CLOSE TIME is 2026-12-31, but the actual question requires conviction "by July 31, 2027." Forecast 1 flags this ambiguity but doesn't act on it or adjust probability accordingly; Forecast 2 doesn't even mention it, despite it being a first-order issue that could nearly halve the available runway and thus significantly cut P(Yes).

**Over-reliance on Polymarket as a like-for-like anchor**: Both forecasters anchor tightly to the 48.5% Polymarket price without verifying its exact resolution date matches the July 2027 deadline used in this question — if Polymarket's contract closes earlier (e.g., year-end 2026), it is not a valid direct anchor and both are importing a mismatched reference class.

**Plea-deal dynamics underexplored**: The brief notes ~70% of capital cases resolve via plea historically, and that a guilty plea (not just trial verdict) would count as a conviction, but neither forecaster models the probability or timing of a plea specifically — especially the well-known pattern where capital defendants plead guilty close to trial to avoid execution risk, which could meaningfully raise P(Yes) within the window even without a completed trial.

**Political salience as an accelerant not credited**: Given the extraordinary political profile of the Kirk assassination, prosecutors/courts may be under unusual pressure to expedite proceedings relative to typical capital-case base rates (2-4 years), a case-specific factor that could shift timing meaningfully faster than the generic base rate both forecasts lean on.

**Insufficient weight on tail/delay scenarios**: Neither forecast substantively engages with concrete anecdotes of delay already occurring (preliminary hearing postponed once, contempt finding against a prosecutor, ongoing death-penalty-notice litigation, camera-ban disputes) as compounding evidence that further continuances are likely, which could justify a lower P(Yes) than the ~42-48% both settled on.

**Convergence without justified narrowing**: The model's own base case shows a wide 27-71% range reflecting genuine uncertainty, yet both forecasts cluster within a narrow 42-48% band near the midpoint — this convergence isn't well justified given the brief's explicit acknowledgment of high volatility (33-57% Polymarket range) and unresolved procedural unknowns.

6. Aggregator Opus 5

44% (52% confidence)

Yes: 44% No: 56%

Conditional on a judgment being entered, conviction is near-certain (confession video, engraved-bullet/motive evidence, no competency or insanity defense reported), so the binding uncertainty is whether a verdict or completed guilty plea occurs by July 31, 2027. As of late August 2026 the case is still at bind-over with no plea and no trial date, and Utah capital litigation (death-penalty notice fights, evidence-admissibility motions, jury-selection procedures after the contempt issue, one prior continuance) routinely stretches beyond 22 months from charging. Offsetting factors — extraordinary political salience creating pressure to expedite, prosecutors publicly pushing for a straightforward bind-over, and the meaningful chance of a late guilty plea to avoid execution risk (which would resolve Yes) — keep this close to a coin flip rather than clearly negative. Polymarket's 48.5% is the only cross-market anchor and its recent 8.5pp softening reflects delay risk, not acquittal belief; I shade a few points below it for compounding continuance evidence and resolution-date ambiguity.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 248.7s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.