Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a Kalshi-sourced long-horizon political market on the May 2028 Philippine presidential election, so the Kalshi price for the Robredo leg plus the full field of sibling markets is the primary anchor. Key empirical drivers are early 2028 presidential preference surveys (Pulse Asia/SWS), whether Robredo has signaled a third presidential run (she was elected Naga City mayor in 2025), and the shifting field (Sara Duterte's impeachment/disqualification status, Marcos-allied contenders like Bong Go, Ping Lacson, VP hopefuls). I will anchor on market prices, normalize the field across candidates, and gather current Philippine political news.

# Current state Robredo has repeatedly and explicitly ruled out running for any national office in 2028, stating she will instead seek re-election as Naga City mayor (term ends 2028); she made this statement as recently as April 2026 (Inquirer/Rappler/SCMP). Despite this, she continues to poll second nationally behind VP Sara Duterte, whose own political future is clouded by an ongoing second impeachment trial (Senate trial began July 6, 2026) that could permanently bar her from future office if she is convicted. # Timeline of key events - 2022-05-09: Robredo loses presidential election to Bongbong Marcos/Sara Duterte ticket in a landslide (~16M vote gap) — confirmed (Wikipedia). - 2024-03: Pulse Asia survey shows Raffy Tulfo and Sara Duterte statistically tied for 2028 presidential preference; Robredo trails at 11% — confirmed (Rappler). - 2025: Robredo elected mayor of Naga City (term to 2028) — confirmed (Wikipedia). - 2026-04: Robredo publicly and repeatedly rules out any 2028 national run, says she is "certain" and it's "not in my horizon" — confirmed (Inquirer, Rappler, radio interview). - 2026-05-11: House impeaches Sara Duterte for a second time (four articles) — confirmed (Inquirer). - 2026-05-30: Poll reported showing Robredo "closing in" on Duterte in hypothetical 2028 race — reported (Philstar). - 2026-06-17: Philippine Senate replaces Duterte-ally leadership ahead of impeachment trial — confirmed (Straits Times). - 2026-07-06: Sara Duterte's Senate impeachment trial formally begins (92 trial days approved) — confirmed (Al Jazeera, Inquirer). - 2026-07-22: Pulse Asia/Stratbase poll: Duterte leads Robredo 52%–39% (one-on-one, despite ongoing trial) — confirmed (BusinessWorld). - 2026-08-05/06: OCTA poll: Duterte leads Robredo in hypothetical 2028 race — reported (Manila Times). - 2026-08-10/12/13: OCTA poll shows Robredo-Tulfo and Duterte-Marcos in "statistical dead heat"/tied for 2028 — reported, conflicting with July Pulse Asia gap (Manila Times, Canadian Inquirer, Sunstar). - 2026-08-15/17: Commentary on "calcified" polling; reports Duterte-Marcos negotiation rumors amid impeachment trial — reported/rumored (Manila Times, Manila Bulletin). # Event Will Leni Robredo win the 2028 Philippine presidential election (Kalshi: KXPHILIPPINESPRES-28-LROB)? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No live Kalshi price available — kalshi_direct returned no data for this ticker (market may be too new, illiquid, or not yet listed with quotes). No related KXPHILIPPINESPRES series markets returned pricing either. The code_execution tool's "8¢/7.8% de-vigged" figures are explicitly labeled **illustrative placeholders**, not real market data — do not treat as an actual anchor. **Effectively, no verified Kalshi consensus price exists for this outcome at this time.** # Sub-question answers 1. **Kalshi YES price / 90-day trend** — Unavailable; no data returned for KXPHILIPPINESPRES-28 or the Robredo ticket specifically (kalshi_direct, kalshi_related). 2. **Pulse Asia/SWS/OCTA polls** — Duterte leads Robredo in most 2025-2026 polls: Pulse Asia/Stratbase (Jul 2026) 52%-39% Duterte; earlier Pulse Asia showed 51%-41%. OCTA (Aug 2026) shows Duterte leading, though a separate Aug 2026 OCTA report describes Robredo-Tulfo vs Duterte-Marcos as a "statistical dead heat" — conflicting reports, likely reflecting different question framings (GDELT/claude_news). 3. **Robredo's candidacy status** — She has explicitly and repeatedly (as of April 2026) ruled out any 2028 national run, citing commitment to her Naga City mayoralty (term to 2028); this is a structural, on-record statement, not speculation (Inquirer, Rappler, SCMP). 4. **Sara Duterte impeachment status** — Impeached a second time by House (May 11, 2026, four articles); Senate trial began July 6, 2026 (92 trial days approved); conviction could permanently bar her from office, reshaping the field if it occurs (Al Jazeera, Inquirer). 5. **Historical base rate** — No hard data found on Filipino repeat-candidate win rates; code_execution's "10-15%" figure is an unsupported/illustrative estimate, not sourced empirically. 6. **Polymarket** — No matching markets found for Philippines president, election, Robredo, or Sara Duterte (polymarket_related: 0 matches). 7. **De-vig candidate prices** — Cannot compute; no real Kalshi price data exists for any 2028 PH presidential candidate ticker. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Inquirer/Rappler, Apr 2026] Robredo has explicitly and repeatedly stated she will not run for national office in 2028. 2. [Wikipedia] Robredo lost the 2022 election by ~16M votes; is now Naga City mayor (2025-2028). 3. [Inquirer/Al Jazeera] Sara Duterte faces a second impeachment trial (started July 6, 2026) that could bar her from future office. 4. [Kalshi tools] No live price data exists for the Robredo or broader 2028 PH presidential Kalshi market. 5. [Polymarket] No comparable Polymarket market exists. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No priced KXPHILIPPINESPRES-28 markets returned; only unrelated US/Canada/UK markets surfaced as noise. - Polymarket: No markets found on this topic at all. - Sportsbook implied: None available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Sen. Pangilinan (opposition) publicly disagrees with Robredo's decision, arguing her poll strength makes her the best unifying opposition candidate (claude_news). - SCMP/Rappler commentary frames the opposition as lacking a "saviour" post-Robredo, citing Hontiveros, Bam Aquino, Pangilinan as a "thin bench." - Manila Times op-ed (Aug 2026) suggests polling has "calcified," implying current numbers may not reflect a Robredo-declined field accurately. - Rumors of Marcos-Duterte political negotiations amid the impeachment trial (Manila Bulletin, unconfirmed). # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (Robredo wins)**: Opposing — she has explicitly, repeatedly ruled out running; would need to reverse a firm public commitment and defeat Duterte (and possibly Marcos-aligned successors) after already losing by a landslide in 2022. Supporting — she remains a strong #2 in some polls and has residual opposition support/pressure to run. - **No (Robredo does not win)**: Strongly favored — declared non-candidacy is the dominant, structural fact; even if she reversed course, she trails Duterte by 11-13 points in the most recent one-on-one poll (Pulse Asia, Jul 2026), and would face a fragmented or reconfigured field depending on Duterte's impeachment outcome. # Gaps / unknowns - No actual Kalshi price for this ticker — cannot benchmark against "the market." - No Polymarket comparison available. - Unclear whether Robredo could still change her mind by 2028 filing deadline (~late 2027). - Uncertain outcome of Duterte impeachment trial and its effect on field composition. - No solid empirical base rate for repeat Filipino presidential candidates' win probability. # Calibration anchors - No verified Kalshi YES price exists (anchor unavailable — treat as near-total uncertainty from market data alone). - Given explicit repeated non-candidacy statements, historical analogs (declared non-candidates rarely reverse and win) suggest a very low probability, plausibly single-digit (~2-6%), significantly below any Duterte-referenced polling numbers, absent a major reversal announcement.

1. Both forecasts converge tightly on 4% with no independent variance, despite the brief noting "no solid empirical base rate for repeat Filipino presidential candidates' win probability" and a suggested range of "~2-6%" — treating the midpoint as near-certain rather than acknowledging the wide uncertainty band itself warranted more spread or explicit sensitivity discussion. 2. Neither forecaster grapples with the event's actual resolution horizon: this is a "who will win" question with close date 2029-05-31, meaning even a low-probability Robredo run must also survive a full election against Duterte, Marcos-aligned successors, or a post-impeachment reshuffled field — the compounding probability chain (reversal → filing → primary consolidation → winning the general) is underspecified beyond "multiple contingencies," and no explicit probability decomposition was shown. 3. Both dismiss the OCTA "statistical dead heat" report as merely "framing-dependent," but this is the most recent poll (Aug 2026) and directly conflicts with the July Pulse Asia gap they lean on — arbitrarily favoring the poll that supports the lower estimate is a selection bias neither flags as a real uncertainty driver. 4. Neither forecast addresses the tail scenario where Duterte is convicted and permanently barred, which the brief explicitly flags as a field-reshaping event ("could permanently bar her from future office") — if that occurs, Robredo could face a much weaker/fragmented field, potentially raising her conditional win probability meaningfully above baseline, yet both treat this as a minor aside rather than modeling it as a distinct branch. 5. Both forecasters ignore Sen. Pangilinan's public pressure and the "thin bench" narrative (Hontiveros, Aquino, Pangilinan) suggesting continued elite/opposition pressure on Robredo to reverse course, which is a distinct causal pathway from spontaneous self-reversal and deserves more explicit weight given the 2+ year horizon to filing. 6. With no Kalshi or Polymarket price to anchor against, both forecasts effectively invent a "structural" probability from scratch — this is reasonable given the data gap, but neither flags how fragile/subjective this exercise is or provides any confidence interval, making the near-identical 0.040 outputs look more precise than the underlying evidence supports.

6% (67% confidence)

Yes: 6% No: 94%

Robredo's explicit, repeated (April 2026) refusal to seek national office in 2028 is the dominant structural fact, but the filing deadline is still ~late 2027 and Philippine politicians — Robredo included in 2021 — frequently reverse late-declared positions under coalition pressure (Pangilinan, 'thin bench' narrative). I therefore weight P(she runs) at roughly 15-20%, and P(she wins | runs) at roughly 30%, given she trails Sara Duterte 52%-39% in the most recent one-on-one Pulse Asia poll but is in a 'dead heat' in some OCTA framings and would benefit substantially if Duterte is convicted and permanently barred. That branch — the one both forecasters underweighted per the critique — justifies nudging above their identical 4% rather than below it. No verified Kalshi or Polymarket price exists, so this is a structural estimate with a genuinely wide band (~3-8%); I settle near 5.5% for Yes.

Total pipeline time: 296.6s