Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket question about whether the next Gemini Pro model's HLE Accuracy on agi.safe.ai will be ≥50%. Key drivers: the current HLE scores displayed on that site (especially Gemini 3 Pro's ~37-38% and frontier leaders), the rate of HLE score improvement per model generation, whether agi.safe.ai reports tool-augmented or no-tools scores, and the expected timing/existence of a next Gemini Pro release before Dec 31, 2026. I'll anchor on the Polymarket price, then gather leaderboard data and release-timeline news, plus cross-venue signals.

# Current state As of ~August 2026, the most recent Gemini "Pro" model on the Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) leaderboard is Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (Feb 2026), scoring 44.4–46.4% — a model the market's own examples (3.2/3.5/4.0 Pro) imply is NOT the "next" qualifying model for this question. The true next Pro-labeled model (Gemini 3.5 Pro or Gemini 4) has not shipped: 3.5 Pro has been repeatedly delayed/possibly skipped, and Gemini 4 is still in pre-training with no confirmed release date, creating real risk that no qualifying model appears before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline at all. # Timeline of key events - 2025-11-18 (confirmed): Gemini 3 Pro launches; HLE 37.5% (no tools) per Google's official blog. - 2026-02-19 (reported): Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview launches; HLE 44.4% per Google, 46.44% per CAIS/agi.safe.ai-sourced Wikipedia table (GPT-5.4 Pro 44.32%, Muse Spark 40.56% same leaderboard). - 2026-06 to 2026-08 (reported): Google ships multiple Flash-tier models (3.5/3.6/3.7 Flash) but 3.5 Pro repeatedly misses target windows (June, mid-July, early August). - 2026-07-17/18/21/23 (reported): Multiple outlets (TechCrunch, Business Insider, Moneycontrol) confirm Gemini 3.5 Pro delay tied to coding-performance issues; Pichai publicly redirects attention to Gemini 4 and promises faster cadence. - 2026-07-21 (reported): Gemini 4 confirmed in pre-training only (kie.ai); no benchmarks, no date. - 2026-08-05 (reported): Google DeepMind reorg (Hassabis to chairman; Jeff Dean heads "Discovery Loop"); geeky-gadgets reports DeepMind may pivot away from 3.5 Pro toward Gemini 4. - 2026-08-13/14 (confirmed): Gemini 3.7 Flash released — non-Pro, does not qualify. - ~2026-08 (market data): Polymarket price for this exact market at 70.5%, up from a 50% floor over the trailing 30 days. # Event Will the next Google Gemini "Pro"-labeled model to appear on agi.safe.ai's HLE leaderboard (after Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview) debut with a displayed HLE Accuracy ≥50%, by Dec 31, 2026? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No distinct kalshi_direct price was returned; the only direct price data available for this exact ticker came via polymarket_direct: **YES = 70.5%**, 7-day change flat, 30-day change **+20.5 pts** (rising from a 50% floor to a 91% high over 26 data points), volume ~$19.6K. Treat this as the best available consensus anchor; true Kalshi order-book price is a data gap. # Sub-question answers 1. Gemini 3 Pro is listed at 37.5% (no-tools) on Google's own materials and ~37.52% on the CAIS leaderboard; a tool/search-augmented variant reportedly scored ~45.8%, but the site's headline "HLE Accuracy" card figure appears to be the no-tools number. 2. Highest score currently on agi.safe.ai's leaderboard is Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 46.44% (Wikipedia/CAIS mirror); GPT-5.4 Pro 44.32%, Muse Spark 40.56%. No model has crossed 50% on the actual resolution source as of mid-Aug 2026. [Note: third-party Artificial Analysis leaderboard shows some models >50% (Claude Fable 5 ~53-55%, GPT-5.6 Sol ~49.5%), but that is a different site, not the resolution source.] 3. Trend: ~14.5% (Feb'25) → 30% (Jul'25) → 37.5% (Nov'25, Gemini 3 Pro) → 44.4-46.4% (Feb'26, 3.1 Pro) — roughly +7-9 pts per ~3-month Pro iteration (~+2.6 pts/month regression fit). Only ~+3.6 pts needed from 3.1 Pro's 46.44% to reach 50%. 4. Gemini 3.5 Pro has been delayed through Aug 2026 and may be skipped; Gemini 4 is in pre-training only (confirmed July 2026), no date, with FutureSearch's model forecasting median GA ~May 2027 (past close), though some industry chatter clusters on late-2026. 5. Prior Gemini Pro releases (3 Pro, 3.1 Pro) appeared on agi.safe.ai promptly (days/weeks) after launch, so if a new Pro model ships before ~mid-Dec 2026 it should appear in time to resolve. 6. No companion Kalshi/Polymarket HLE-threshold or other-lab markets were found; keyword searches returned unrelated esports/SCOTUS markets only. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Google blog] Gemini 3 Pro: 37.5% HLE, no tools (Nov 2025). 2. [Google/IE/Wikipedia] Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview: 44.4% (Google) / 46.44% (CAIS leaderboard) (Feb 2026). 3. [TechCrunch, Business Insider, Moneycontrol] Gemini 3.5 Pro repeatedly delayed through Aug 2026; only Flash-tier models shipped in interim. 4. [kie.ai] Gemini 4 confirmed in pre-training as of July 2026, no benchmarks/date. 5. [FutureSearch] Median forecast GA for Gemini 4: May 2027 (after market close). # Cross-market signals - Polymarket (this market): YES 70.5%, rising sharply over past 30 days. - Kalshi related: no Gemini/HLE-specific matches; unrelated markets only. - No sportsbook or other AI-benchmark markets found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Code-execution trend extrapolation: no-tools P(≥50%) ≈17-84% depending on release timing (centered ~38% for a ~Mar 2026 release, but real timing looks much later given delays); tool-augmented P(≥50%) ≈91-99% if a tool-boosted number is ever headlined (unlikely per resolution rules, which track the card's stated "HLE Accuracy," historically the no-tools figure). - geeky-gadgets/computerworld: DeepMind may skip 3.5 Pro and pivot to Gemini 4 as flagship "next Pro." # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Score trajectory needs only ~+3.6 pts from 46.44% baseline, a smaller jump than the last two increments (+7-9 pts each); Gemini 4 rumored to be "significantly larger," suggesting a bigger capability jump. Polymarket already prices 70.5%. - **No**: Substantial release-timing risk — 3.5 Pro delayed/possibly skipped, Gemini 4 still pre-training with no confirmed date and some forecasts (FutureSearch) placing GA after the market's Dec 31, 2026 close, which would resolve "No" outright regardless of score. # Gaps / unknowns - No confirmed kalshi_direct price; relying on Polymarket cross-platform data for the same ticker. - Whether agi.safe.ai's displayed figure will be no-tools or tool-augmented for the next model is not explicitly confirmed. - Exact scoring convention/resolution nuance if Gemini 4 is not labeled "Pro" (could be moot per description's flexible naming) is unresolved. # Calibration anchors - Cross-platform (Polymarket) current YES price: 70.5% (anchor). - Precedent: HLE scores have risen ~7-9 pts per successive Gemini Pro release over ~3 months; only ~7-10 months of runway remain before close, with the presumed next release facing significant delay risk.

1. Both forecasters converge near 0.63-0.65, essentially just shading toward the Polymarket anchor, but neither explicitly stresses that Polymarket is a thin, likely retail-dominated market (~$19.6K volume, 26 data points) that swung from a 50% floor to 91% high in 30 days — this is weak evidence for a "consensus" anchor and shouldn't be weighted as heavily as a liquid market. 2. Forecast 1's implied "conditional on launch" P(≥50%) of 80-85% is inconsistent with its own math: 0.75 (timing) × 0.80-0.85 (score) = 0.60-0.64, yet it rounds to 0.62 then nudges to 0.65 toward the anchor — this "nudge toward anchor" step is somewhat circular reasoning rather than independent evidence. 3. Neither forecaster grapples with the base-rate risk that if Gemini 4 is the qualifying model and is "significantly larger" (per the brief's speculation), a *first* release of a genuinely new architecture could just as easily undershoot the extrapolated trend as overshoot it — new model generations often show volatile, non-monotonic benchmark jumps rather than smooth continuation of the prior scaling line. 4. Both give substantial weight to third-party leaderboards (Artificial Analysis showing >50% for other labs) as evidence the bar is "achievable," but the brief explicitly warns the resolution source is agi.safe.ai's no-tools figure, and Gemini's own historical convention (37.5% no-tools vs 45.8% tool-augmented) means the qualifying number could land lower than analogous third-party site scores — this cross-leaderboard comparison risk is underexplored. 5. Neither forecast addresses the ambiguous case where Gemini 3.5 Pro ships as a genuine "Pro" release before Gemini 4 — the brief notes 3.5 Pro was optimized to fix "coding-performance issues," not necessarily reasoning/HLE performance, so if 3.5 Pro is the qualifying model (rather than Gemini 4), the score jump could be much smaller than the +7-9pt trend, undermining the "only need +3.6pts" framing that both forecasters lean on. 6. Both treat "timing" and "score" as roughly independent multiplicative factors, but they are correlated: a rushed, delayed release under competitive pressure (Pichai's "faster cadence" promise) is arguably more likely to ship with a modest score bump (to hit a deadline) than a fully-baked large jump, meaning P(Yes | late 2026 launch) may be lower than the unconditional trend-based estimate both use.

60% (52% confidence)

Yes: 60% No: 40%

Two conditions must both hold: a new Pro-labeled Gemini must debut on agi.safe.ai before Dec 31, 2026, and its displayed (historically no-tools) HLE figure must be ≥50%. Timing is the dominant risk — 3.5 Pro has slipped repeatedly and may be skipped, Gemini 4 was only in pre-training as of July 2026, and FutureSearch's median GA (~May 2027) falls after close — so I put roughly 70-75% on any qualifying listing in time. Conditional on a launch, the score bar is modest (+3.6 pts from 46.44%), but the critique is right that a rushed, coding-focused 3.5 Pro or a volatile first-generation Gemini 4 could undershoot, and that Artificial Analysis cross-leaderboard scores (tool-augmented conventions) overstate the case, so ~75-80% conditional is fairer than 85%. That multiplies to ~0.53-0.60. The Polymarket anchor at 70.5% is thin (~$19.6K, 26 points, swinging 50→91) and deserves only partial weight, so I settle modestly below both prior forecasts at 0.60.

Total pipeline time: 315.3s