Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a long-dated Kalshi political market on Georgia's next parliamentary election (nominally 2028), where Georgian Dream is entrenched and has moved to outlaw the UNM-led opposition. The market price on Kalshi is the primary anchor, plus sibling markets in the same event give the implied field distribution. News research should establish whether UNM/Unity even remains legal and eligible, and whether a snap election is plausible.

# Current state No live Kalshi price could be retrieved for KXGEORGIAPARLI-28-UNM (tool returned no data — market may be new, illiquid, or not yet listed with visible quotes). Georgian Dream (GD) holds a dominant, unchallenged parliamentary majority since 2012 and is actively pursuing a Constitutional Court case to ban UNM and allied opposition parties before the next scheduled election (expected 2028), which would resolve this market NO outright regardless of vote share. # Timeline of key events - 2024-10-26: Georgian parliamentary election held; GD claims ~53% under CEC preliminary results, opposition coalitions ~37.8% combined; election contested as fraudulent by opposition/some Western observers (confirmed – Wikipedia). - 2024–2025: Sustained opposition protests ("2024–2025 Georgian protests"); V-Dem reclassifies Georgia as "electoral autocracy" (2025) (confirmed – Wikipedia). - 2025 (through year): Most opposition parties, including UNM, maintain a parliamentary boycott (confirmed – OC Media). - 2025-10 (October local elections): Local elections held; 8 opposition parties boycott, others participate — signals opposition fragmentation (confirmed – Euronews). - 2025-10-30: GD formally files Constitutional Court lawsuit (backed by 88 MPs) to ban UNM, "Coalition for Change," and "Strong Georgia" as unconstitutional (confirmed – Georgia Today/OC Media). - 2025-10-28: Georgian Dream passes legislation simplifying the process for banning parties whose "goals/composition" match an already-banned party (confirmed – OC Media). - 2026-03-02: Nine opposition parties, including UNM, announce a new anti-GD coalition/alliance (confirmed – Civicus Monitor). - 2026 (April, reported "expanded April 2026"): GD withdraws original October 2025 lawsuit and refiles an expanded version adding the Federalists party as a fourth target (reported – OC Media/GBC). - 2026 (by report date, ~April–July): Constitutional Court case still pending, no ruling yet; PACE co-rapporteurs publicly warn banning opposition parties risks a one-party system incompatible with Council of Europe membership (reported – GBC/PACE statements). - 2026-07 (PolitPro poll snapshot): GD polling ~56.2%, UNM ~7.5%, other opposition fragments (10.7%, 10%, 9.5%, 3.2%, 1.8%) (reported – PolitPro; caveat: independent Georgian polling is scarce/contested). # Event Will Unity – National Movement (UNM) win the next Georgian parliamentary election (per KXGEORGIAPARLI-28-UNM)? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No retrievable YES price/volume for KXGEORGIAPARLI-28-UNM via kalshi_direct or kalshi_related (series KXGEORGIAPARLI returned 0 usable markets). No trend data available. Illustrative code_execution modeling (not live quotes) assumed ~4¢ for UNM vs. ~88¢ for GD — treat as a rough sanity-check only, not a real market anchor. # Sub-question answers 1. **Current Kalshi YES price/trend** — Not retrievable; no live data returned for this ticker or series (kalshi_direct, kalshi_related). 2. **Sibling market field distribution** — No real sibling prices found; illustrative de-vig modeling suggests GD ~88%, UNM ~4%, other opposition tickets combined ~8% (code_execution, hypothetical). 3. **UNM ban case status** — Pending, unresolved. GD filed suit 2025-10-30 targeting UNM + two other coalitions; expanded/refiled ~April 2026 to add a fourth party (Federalists). No Constitutional Court ruling yet as of latest reporting (OC Media, GBC). 4. **Next election timing / snap election risk** — Next election expected 2028 (PolitPro); GD controls parliament with no incentive for an early vote; no credible snap-election pathway identified in research. 5. **UNM electoral performance/polling** — UNM was part of opposition coalitions winning ~37.8% combined in 2024 (official GD win ~53%, contested). Current PolitPro polling puts UNM alone at just ~7.5%, well behind other opposition blocs and GD (~56.2%). UNM joined the post-2024 parliamentary boycott and a new 9-party opposition alliance formed March 2026. 6. **Free/fair elections & base rate** — Georgia classified an "electoral autocracy" by V-Dem (2025); GD has never lost power since 2012. Modeled base rate for opposition (any bloc) winning next cycle ≈15%, with UNM's specific implied share ≈4-5% given its diminished individual polling relative to other opposition brands (code_execution estimate). # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Wikipedia] GD has won every general election since 2012; 2024 election result GD ~53% vs opposition coalitions ~37.8% combined. 2. [Wikipedia] Georgia classified as "electoral autocracy" by V-Dem in 2025. 3. [OC Media/Georgia Today] GD filed Constitutional Court suit (Oct 2025) to ban UNM and other opposition parties; expanded April 2026 to include a fourth party; case still pending. 4. [OC Media] Legislation passed simplifying party bans based on similarity to already-banned parties. 5. [PolitPro] UNM polling standalone at ~7.5%, behind Strong Georgia (10.7%), For Georgia (10%), Coalition for Change (9.5%). 6. [Civicus Monitor] Nine opposition parties incl. UNM formed a new anti-GD alliance March 2026. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No usable KXGEORGIAPARLI sibling data; only tangential cross-country markets (Ghana NDC 61%) offer no direct read. - Polymarket: No matching Georgia-election markets found. - Sportsbook implied: N/A (not applicable to this event type). # Analyst opinions and speculation - PACE co-rapporteurs warn a party ban would create a "one-party system" incompatible with Council of Europe membership (reported). - Georgia Today/GBC frame the ban push as "unprecedented" and warn of "one-party rule." - Overall analyst synthesis (claude_news): GD's dominance, court control, and active ban campaign "severely undermine" UNM's near-term election prospects, especially if the ban succeeds pre-2028. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (UNM wins)**: Opposing evidence dominates — declining standalone polling (~7.5%), active existential ban lawsuit, GD's unbroken 2012–present win streak, autocratic electoral environment, opposition fragmentation/boycotts. Supporting evidence: new 9-party opposition alliance (Mar 2026) could consolidate anti-GD vote, but UNM is not even the largest individual opposition brand in current polling. - **No (UNM does not win)**: Strongly favored — GD's dominance, ongoing party-ban litigation directly targeting UNM, weak relative polling, and structural base rates (~4-15% for any opposition win, lower for UNM specifically) all point to No as the high-confidence outcome. # Gaps / unknowns - No live Kalshi price/volume data for this specific ticker — cannot confirm actual market consensus. - Outcome/timing of Constitutional Court ban case unknown; a ban would make Yes essentially impossible (UNM could be barred from contesting). - No confirmed independent, high-quality Georgian polling (PolitPro caveated as contested/scarce). - Unclear whether "Unity – National Movement" label in this market corresponds exactly to a specific electoral list/coalition given fluid alliance formation (Mar 2026 coalition). # Calibration anchors - No confirmed Kalshi YES price available as anchor; illustrative modeling suggests low-single-digit percent (~4%). - Precedent: GD has won 4 consecutive elections (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024); no incumbent turnover in over a decade under an "electoral autocracy" rating — supports a low single-digit-to-low-teens probability ceiling for any opposition win, lower still for UNM specifically given weaker relative polling than other opposition brands.

1. Both forecasts anchor heavily on the "illustrative ~4%" figure explicitly labeled as hypothetical code_execution modeling, not a real market price—treating it as a quasi-anchor risks circularity, since that figure itself was derived from the same base-rate/polling logic the forecasters independently reconstruct, effectively double-counting the same evidence. 2. Neither forecaster grapples with the definitional ambiguity flagged in "Gaps/unknowns": it's unclear whether "Unity – National Movement" as a Kalshi ticker corresponds to UNM running solo, as part of a coalition, or under a new alliance label (e.g., the March 2026 nine-party alliance) — this could materially change resolution mechanics (e.g., a coalition win might or might not count as "UNM winning"). 3. Both treat the ban lawsuit as a modest tail risk baked into their ~3-6% estimates, but the brief indicates the case was refiled and expanded (adding a fourth party) with simplified ban legislation already passed — this trajectory suggests rising rather than static probability of a ban succeeding by 2028, arguably pushing toward an even lower Yes probability than either forecast reflects. 4. Neither forecast explicitly addresses what "win" means at the threshold level — Kalshi-style questions on "who will win" plausibly require a plurality/majority of seats, not just relative opposition standing; given UNM is only 4th among opposition brands (~7.5% vs 10.7%/10%/9.5%), the realistic ceiling for UNM "winning" outright is arguably near-zero rather than 3-6%, suggesting both may be too generous. 5. Both cite the "electoral autocracy" classification and unbroken GD win streak as supporting evidence but don't discuss the countervailing scenario where international pressure (PACE warnings about "one-party system... incompatible with Council of Europe membership") could force GD to permit freer elections or abandon the ban, which — combined with opposition consolidation — is a tail scenario neither incorporates into upside tail risk for Yes. 6. Confidence levels (0.72 and 0.66) seem arbitrarily assigned without clear methodological basis tied to the wide uncertainty band (no live market price, contested polling, pending litigation with unknown timeline) — given the brief's own acknowledgment of substantial data gaps, these confidence levels may overstate certainty in the underlying evidence quality.

3% (69% confidence)

Yes: 3% No: 97%

Georgian Dream has won every parliamentary election since 2012, controls the courts, and Georgia is now classified an electoral autocracy — structurally capping any opposition win probability in the low teens at most. UNM specifically is only the fourth-ranked opposition brand in available polling (~7.5% vs GD ~56%), so its share of that already-small opposition win probability is small; the critique's point that 'winning' likely requires plurality/majority of seats pushes further toward zero. The active, expanded Constitutional Court ban suit plus newly simplified party-ban legislation is a rising rather than static existential threat that could bar UNM from contesting at all. Offsetting slightly: the ~2028 horizon is long, the March 2026 nine-party alliance could consolidate the anti-GD vote, PACE/Council of Europe pressure creates a genuine tail scenario, and there is definitional ambiguity about whether a coalition win resolves YES — so I keep a small but nonzero Yes tail rather than going below 2%. Final estimate 3% Yes, consistent with the lower of the two forecasts and the illustrative ~4c sanity check discounted for the ban trajectory.

Total pipeline time: 238.6s