Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related congress_bills claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a long-dated, low-probability novelty political market on Kalshi; the key anchors are the current Kalshi price and any concrete legislative/executive action (e.g., Rep. Andy Ogles' bill directing Trump's likeness on Mt. Rushmore, National Park Service/Interior statements, geological feasibility). I'll pull the direct Kalshi market, check for cross-venue pricing, search Congress for the relevant bills, and scan news for any executive action or Interior Department moves.

# Current state The market resolves YES only if an executive action or enacted law formally directs Trump's likeness be carved into Mt. Rushmore before 2029-01-21. As of research date (mid-2026), no such action or law exists — only stalled bills, supportive rhetoric from Interior Secretary Burgum, and firm opposition from NPS/geologists citing structural infeasibility (Mount Rushmore has no viable additional carving space per NPS and engineering assessments). # Timeline of key events - 2025-01-28: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) introduces H.R. 792 (119th Congress) to arrange carving Trump into Mt. Rushmore — confirmed (Congress.gov). - 2025-03: Interior Sec. Doug Burgum, asked if Trump's face could be added, says "they certainly have room for it there" — confirmed (The Hill). - 2025 (year, exact date not specified): NPS tells NYT it considers Mt. Rushmore a "completed work of art" with "no viable locations left" — confirmed (Newsweek). - 2026-04-23: Reporting notes House Republicans have introduced ≥8 bills to honor Trump (including Mt. Rushmore), part of partisan "honor Trump" trend — confirmed (Las Vegas Sun). - 2026 (undated, before July): Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) sends letter to Burgum urging a feasibility study — confirmed (Yahoo/The Hill). - 2026-06-01: Trump shares AI-generated image of himself on Mt. Rushmore — reported (Times of India). - 2026-07-03/04: Trump attends America 250 fireworks event at Mt. Rushmore; Burgum reiterates "certainly" room for Trump's face; NPS position unchanged (no viable space); CNN analysis states structurally not possible to add a fifth face — confirmed (CNN, MSNBC). - 2026-07 (ongoing): Luna's H.R. 792 remains stalled with zero co-sponsors as of July 2026; her office does not confirm renewed push — confirmed (CNN). - 2026-07/08: Op-eds ("Perish the thought") continue debating the idea — commentary, not news of action. # Event Will an executive action or enacted law direct Trump's likeness be sculpted into Mt. Rushmore before January 21, 2029? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor Current YES price: **8.20%** (KXMTRUSHMORE-29). 7-day change: -0.90%; 30-day change: -1.70%. Average daily volume: 188 contracts. Price range over 61 days: 6.00%–17.00% (has trended down from higher levels earlier). No other Kalshi series tracks this specific event directly; comparable "Trump legacy" markets (manufacturing, debt, spending cuts) show mixed unrelated dynamics. # Sub-question answers 1. **Kalshi price/volume/trend?** — 8.20% currently, down from a 90-day high of 17%, drifting lower (-1.7% over 30 days), modest volume (~188/day). [kalshi_direct] 2. **Bill status (Ogles/Luna)?** — Rep. Luna's H.R. 792 (119th Congress, introduced 2025-01-28) is the operative bill; as of July 2026 it has zero co-sponsors and is stalled, not advanced past introduction. Ogles sent a letter (not a bill) urging a feasibility study, not legislation. [claude_news, congress_bills returned 0 direct matches] 3. **Executive/NPS formal action?** — None found. No EO, memorandum, or directive has been issued. [claude_news] 4. **NPS/Burgum/geologist feasibility views?** — Burgum has twice said (2025, 2026) there's "certainly" room, but Interior Department declined to give an official position. NPS maintains Rushmore is a "completed work" with "no viable locations." Engineer Paul Nelson and 1936 Borglum writings say geologically/structurally impossible; CNN concludes a fifth face is not feasible on this mountain. [claude_news] 5. **Base rate for symbolic Trump-honor proposals?** — At least 8 House bills to honor Trump introduced by April 2026 (currency, airport naming, etc.); most remain stalled without progressing to law, consistent with a low (~1-3%/yr) enactment base rate for such symbolic measures. [claude_news, code_execution model] 6. **Polymarket/other correlated markets?** — No Polymarket markets found matching Rushmore/Trump-face/Trump-honor keywords (0 matches from 100 scanned). No other Kalshi market directly tracks this. [polymarket_related, kalshi_related] # Key facts 1. [claude_news/CNN] NPS: no viable space, considers memorial "completed." 2. [claude_news] Luna's bill (H.R. 792) has zero co-sponsors after 18 months. 3. [claude_news] Geologist/engineer consensus: structurally not feasible to add a fifth face. 4. [claude_news] Burgum has offered supportive rhetoric but no formal Interior position. 5. [kalshi_direct] Price has fallen from a peak of 17% to 8.2%, suggesting fading momentum. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No correlated Rushmore-specific market; broader "Trump honor" Kalshi markets (manufacturing, debt) show no thematic spillover. - Polymarket: No matching markets exist. - Sportsbook implied: N/A. # Analyst opinions and speculation - CNN/MSNBC framing: effort has "stalled," visit generated symbolism (fireworks, AI image) but no substantive legislative or administrative progress. - Op-eds (Duluth News Tribune, Citizens' Voice) treat the idea as a non-serious/politically fraught novelty ("Perish the thought"). - Broader "honor Trump" bill trend (8+ bills) suggests political appetite exists but low follow-through rate. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Political symbolism (Trump's AI image post, Burgum's comments, July 2026 visit) keeps the idea alive; multiple bills introduced shows some GOP appetite; Trump himself has shown personal interest. - **No** (favored): No bill has advanced past introduction with zero co-sponsors; NPS and geologists/engineers state it's technically infeasible; no executive action taken to date; historical base rate for similar symbolic Trump-honor measures becoming law is low; Kalshi price trending down (17%→8.2%). # Gaps / unknowns - No visibility into any private administration deliberations or potential future EO signaling given the strong public technical objections. - Unclear how "executive action" would be interpreted if Trump merely orders a feasibility study (Ogles' request) rather than a directive to carve — could create ambiguous resolution scenarios. - No polling/political science base rate specifically for monument-defacing legislation to calibrate against. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price: 8.20% (anchor). - Model-implied "fair" price given realistic 1-2%/yr base rate for this event type: ~3-6% over remaining term, suggesting current price may be slightly high relative to structural/technical barriers. - Comparable stalled symbolic Trump-honor bills (currency, airport renaming) largely have not become law, supporting a low-probability resolution consistent with sub-10% Yes.

1. Both forecasts converge tightly at ~5-5.5%, essentially ignoring the resolution-ambiguity gap flagged in the brief: "unclear how 'executive action' would be interpreted if Trump merely orders a feasibility study... could create ambiguous resolution scenarios" — an EO directing a feasibility study (which Ogles is already pushing for) is far more plausible than a full carving directive, and both forecasts collapse this into one low-probability bucket without discussing how ambiguous resolution could push YES higher than the "structural infeasibility" framing suggests. 2. Neither forecast grapples with Trump's personal, idiosyncratic behavior as a distinct driver — he personally shared an AI image of himself on Rushmore and attended the site's 250th anniversary event, which is qualitatively different from ordinary "honor Trump" bills sponsored by backbenchers; his personal fixation/ego-driven symbolic actions (e.g., surprise EOs, renaming things unilaterally) is a a reference class of its own that could push an impulsive symbolic EO regardless of feasibility, and this idiosyncratic-executive-whim tail risk is underweighted. 3. Both anchor essentially identically to Kalshi (8.2%) and shade down almost identically (5% and 5.5%), showing insufficient independent variance between the two forecasts — this convergence could reflect shared reasoning/anchoring bias rather than genuinely independent evidence weighting, an important flag for a "red-team" review since it reduces information value from having two forecasters. 4. The long remaining horizon (~2.5 years to Jan 2029) is underweighted — a lot could change politically (e.g., 2026 midterms shifting GOP composition, Trump's own increasing influence over Interior/NPS personnel, or replacement of NPS leadership resistant to the idea) that isn't reflected in a static "current stalled state" extrapolation; base rate for symbolic bills becoming law over 18 months is not necessarily the same as over 2.5 years with potential leadership turnover at NPS. 5. Neither forecast explicitly addresses the scenario where Trump signs a symbolic/ceremonial "directive" that doesn't require actual carving feasibility (e.g., ordering NPS to "explore" or "plan" the addition) — this is a live resolution-ambiguity risk given Ogles' letter and Burgum's repeated "certainly room" comments from an actual sitting Interior Secretary, which is stronger institutional backing than a random backbench bill and deserves more distinct treatment than lumping it with the "8+ stalled honor bills" base rate. 6. The forecasts don't discuss the sharp downward price trend (17%→8.2%) in the context of the upcoming America 250 anniversary hype cycle already passing (July 2026 event) — if that was the peak catalyst opportunity and it already faded without action, the future path may have even fewer natural triggers left, arguably supporting a lower probability than 5-5.5% rather than confirming the current level, which neither forecast pushes far enough below the anchor to reflect.

6% (73% confidence)

Yes: 6% No: 94%

No executive action or enacted law exists: H.R. 792 has zero co-sponsors after 18 months, Ogles' input is a letter requesting a feasibility study (not a directive), and Interior has declined a formal position despite Burgum's rhetoric, while NPS and engineers say a fifth face is structurally infeasible. Both forecasters correctly read the sub-questions as strongly No, but the critique fairly notes two upside tails they compressed: resolution ambiguity around an EO merely ordering NPS to 'explore/plan' an addition, and Trump's idiosyncratic, personally motivated symbolic actions over a still-long ~2.5-year horizon with likely Interior/NPS personnel turnover. Offsetting that, the America 250 Rushmore event was arguably the peak catalyst and passed with no action, consistent with the 17%→8.2% price decay. I therefore land at 6% Yes — modestly below the Kalshi anchor to reflect the low base rate for enacted symbolic Trump-honor measures, but slightly above the two forecasters to preserve the whim/ambiguity tail.

Total pipeline time: 253.4s