Will the winner of Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial election receive fewer votes in the first round than another candidate?

- [2026-10-25] No votes have been counted in the general election. It is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026, and 
uses ranked-choice voting
. Early voting is underway. Results are not yet available. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_gubernatorial_election
- [2026-10-25] The ballot has four tickets. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the only Democrat. Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor are the other three. Tom Begich (D) withdrew after finishing second in the primary and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins. Taylor, who finished fifth, replaced him on the ballot. https://www.britannica.com/question/Who-are-the-candidates-for-governor-of-Alaska
- [2026-08-18] Primary results (a different electorate from the general): Kreiss-Tomkins 22.5%, Begich 20.8%, Wilson 10.0%, Bronson 8.1%. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/alaska-governor-results
- [2026-10-20] Data for Progress poll (Oct 8–16, n=694 LV, ±4): first choices were Kreiss-Tomkins 46%, Wilson 28%, Bronson 12%, Taylor 9%. In the final round, Kreiss-Tomkins led Wilson 53–47. 
If every exhausted ballot from a voter who ranked a Republican went to Wilson, the race would be tied.
 https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-20] Alaska Survey Research poll (Oct 15–18, 1,568 LV, ±3): first choices were Kreiss-Tomkins 50%, Wilson 30%, Bronson 12%, Taylor 8%. The final round was reported as 54–46 by Political Wire and 55–45 by RealClearPolling. 270toWin's average of the three most recent polls is Kreiss-Tomkins 45.3%, Wilson 26.0%, Bronson 13.0%, Taylor 9.3%. https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/alaska
- [2026-10-04] Earlier polls had Kreiss-Tomkins leading first choices by 20 points or more. Siena (Sept 22–Oct 1) had 40/20/15/11. ASR (Oct 1–3) had 48/27/15/10. AARP (Sept) had 40/20/14/7. In every public poll listed, Kreiss-Tomkins leads first choices. https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/alaska
- [2026-10-13] Trump endorsed Wilson at a Wasilla rally and called Bronson and Taylor "lesser" candidates. Bronson and Taylor remain on the ballot. At the Oct 8 debate they said they would rank each other second. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-10-21] Cook Political Report moved Alaska from Toss Up to Lean Democratic. https://time.com/article/2026/10/21/governor-races-to-watch-in-the-midterms
- [2026-10-25] Kalshi shows Kreiss-Tomkins at 86% to win and Wilson at 13%. Its poll average is 52.5% to 44.3% in the final round. MultiState reported Polymarket at about 79% for Kreiss-Tomkins. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26
- [2026-10-23] Kreiss-Tomkins, Bronson and Taylor appeared together at the AFN forum. Wilson was not on the panel. Nothing there changes the race structure. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/gubernatorial-candidates-pitch-alaska-federation-211215377.html
- [2026-10-24] The Anchorage Daily News editorial board endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins. https://adn.com/opinions/editorials/2026/10/24/editorial-a-steady-hand-in-the-governors-office-for-an-unsteady-time
- [2026-10-27] Scheduled: Bronson appears on Alaska Public Media's "Talk of Alaska". 
Wilson cancelled an Oct 13 appearance to attend the Trump rally.
 https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-10-20/democrat-jonathan-kreiss-tomkins-pitches-himself-as-a-changemaker-in-alaska-governor-s-race

BOTTOM LINE: Kreiss-Tomkins has led first choices by 18–20 points in the latest polls, and the closest case is a Wilson upset after ranked-choice transfers. For the question to resolve Yes, the winner would have to trail in first choices. In practice that means Wilson overcoming a big first-round deficit by winning on transfers, which the polls do not currently show.

NOT FOUND: Official Division of Elections results (none exist yet). Any poll showing a Republican ahead in first choices. Any withdrawal by Bronson or Taylor after Oct 13. I could not read the full MultiState page (garbled), so its details come from search snippets.

- [2026-10-20] Data for Progress poll (Oct 8–16, n=694 likely voters, ±4) put first choices at Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 46%, Wilson (R) 28%, Bronson (R) 12% and Taylor (R) 9%. He led Wilson 53–47 in the final round. For YES, a Republican would have to overturn a gap of about 18 points in first choices. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-19] MultiState cites the NYT/Siena poll: Kreiss-Tomkins 40%, Wilson 20%, Bronson 15%, Taylor 11% in first choices. An Alaska Survey Research poll (Oct 1–3) had him beating Wilson 54–46 in the final round. The RealClearPolling average of two-way matchups is D +7.4. Cook and Sabato rate the race Lean D. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-09-23] An AARP poll had Kreiss-Tomkins at 40% and Wilson at 20%, with Bronson at 14% and Taylor at 7%. Cook moved the race to Toss-up at the time. About a quarter of GOP voters were not ranking anyone. Nate Silver's model gave him 80%+. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6096933-alaska-gov-race-cook-tossup/ and https://www.ktoo.org/2026/09/23/poll-shows-democrat-with-lead-in-alaska-governors-race-but-large-swaths-remain-undecided/
- [2026-10-25] Kalshi shows Kreiss-Tomkins at about 86% to win and Wilson at about 13%. Bronson is at about 0.2% and Taylor is not a factor. Around Oct 20, Kalshi and Gemini had him at about 82%. The Polymarket US quote in that aggregator looked stale or illiquid, and the MultiState page cites Polymarket at about 79%. A winner who trailed in first choices would be a different event from a Kreiss-Tomkins win. That would require Wilson (or another Republican) to win while behind. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26 and https://defirate.com/odds/governor/
- [2026-08-18] In the primary, Kreiss-Tomkins finished first with 22.5% and Begich second with 20.8%. Begich then withdrew and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins. Wilson, Bronson and Taylor finished third to fifth. That consolidated the Democratic vote behind one ticket. https://fairvote.org/what-to-expect-in-alaskas-2026-ranked-choice-voting-elections/
- [2026-10-13] Trump endorsed Wilson on Oct 13 and called Bronson and Taylor "lesser" candidates. Bronson and Taylor remain on the ballot. At the Oct 8 debate they said they would rank each other second and Wilson third. This is the main route by which Republican first-choice votes could consolidate, but it would have to cover a gap of about 18–20 points. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [Historical base rate] Alaska has held 3 RCV general elections with a 4+ way or 3-way field and a single Democrat: the 2022 special House election, the 2022 regular House election and the 2022 governor race, which was not decided by RCV rounds. In all of them the first-round leader won. In the Aug 2022 special election, Peltola led the first round with 39.7% (Palin 30.9%, Begich 27.8%) and won 51.5–48.5. In Nov 2022 she led with 48.8% and won in round 3 with 54.96%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska_elections and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election
- [2022-11-08] In the 2022 governor race (RCV era), Dunleavy led with 50.29% in the first round and won. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska_gubernatorial_election
- [2022 / 2026] Alaska's 2022 RCV results featured a Condorcet failure (Begich eliminated first), but that did not affect the first-round leader's win. Researchers note a "no-show paradox" in the 2022 special election. https://arxiv.org/html/2303.00108v2
- [Broader RCV base rate, from general knowledge, not checked against a source in this session] US RCV elections are almost always won by the first-round leader. Comebacks are rare (roughly 1–3% of single-winner RCV contests with no first-round majority). Examples include Alaska's 2022 contests, where the leader won every time. I did not verify the exact percentage.
- [2026-10-23] Kreiss-Tomkins is the only Democrat on the ballot, and Ballot Measure 2 (repeal of RCV and top-four) is also on the ballot, but it would not change the 2026 rules. Cook (Oct 21) moved Alaska to Lean Democratic. Decision Desk HQ and other trackers show Democrats ahead in the Alaska governor race. https://www.hankyung.com/article/202610214521i
- [2026-10-24] Early voting is underway ahead of the Nov 3 election. The Oct 23 AFN forum showed no sign of a Republican consolidation. https://ktna.org/2026-alaska-voters-guide/

BOTTOM LINE: Every public poll shows Kreiss-Tomkins leading first choices by about 18–25 points over the top Republican (Wilson). Past Alaska RCV contests have all been won by the first-round leader, and Kalshi prices about an 86% chance that he wins. YES requires either a large polling miss that puts Wilson ahead in first choices while Kreiss-Tomkins wins, or a Republican winning after trailing in first choices. Both are tail events.

NOT FOUND: Official results (the election has not happened). Any poll showing a Republican leading first choices. A sourced statistic on how often an RCV winner trailed in the first round. A Polymarket page with current prices for the Alaska governor race.

- [2026-10-05] **Timing: the question likely cannot resolve on official results by Nov 10.** First-choice results are reported from election night, Nov 3. The ranked-choice tabulation, which names the winner if no one passes 50%, is scheduled for Nov 18. Certification is targeted for Nov 25. The governor is sworn in Dec 7. The Division's media packet confirms that counts run to day 15 and that only first-choice reports are published until Nov 18. A "winner" under official results is therefore probably not known by Nov 10 unless Kreiss-Tomkins (KT) gets more than 50% of first choices. Other drivers below assume the question is resolved later or from partial data. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-10-05/what-to-know-about-alaskas-general-election and https://www.elections.alaska.gov/doc/mp/2026/MediaPacket-2026-General.%20V3.pdf
- [2026-10-22] **Driver 1, the size of the first-round gap, is controlled by voters.** Early-vote data from the Division of Elections shows Republicans at 27.1% of early votes cast Oct 19–21 and Democrats at 18.5%. This is a party-registration split, not vote choice. Registered Republicans voting early more than Democrats is the only hard turnout signal. Independents are about 57% of registered voters (KTOO, Oct 20), so the gap could narrow or widen on them. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/10/22/thousands-of-alaskans-are-voting-before-election-day-some-ballots-wont-be-counted-until-after-it/ and https://www.ktoo.org/2026/10/20/conservatives-worry-trumps-alaska-visit-may-have-done-more-harm-than-good/
- [2026-10-20] **Driver 2, GOP consolidation (Bronson/Taylor), is controlled by the candidates, and it has stalled.** Taylor said after Trump's endorsement that the easiest conservative win is for all to stay in and rank. Both are staying in. Dropping out would not remove names from the ballot (ADN, Sept 18), and the Oct 13 ballot-drop-out deadline logic means withdrawal now only affects endorsements. Even full consolidation of Bronson and Taylor's 17–21% onto Wilson would put her at about 45–49% against KT's 46–50% in the polls. For the question to resolve Yes, nearly all of that, plus a polling miss, would have to happen. https://www.ktoo.org/2026/10/20/republican-treg-taylor-refuses-trumps-call-to-exit-alaska-governors-race/ and https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/09/18/wilson-again-calls-on-her-republican-opponents-to-drop-out-of-alaska-governors-race/
- [2026-10-20] **Driver 3, Trump's mixed message, is controlled by Trump.** At the Oct 13 rally he told Wilson "lots of luck" on ranked-choice voting, which he called a "phony rigged deal." Gov. Dunleavy from the same stage asked the crowd to rank all three Republicans. Talk-radio hosts warn this pushes bullet-voting for Wilson. Bullet-voting helps Wilson's first-round share. It also raises ballot exhaustion, which hurts her in the final round. That is the one mechanism where Wilson is stronger on first choices but still loses. It makes a "Wilson leads first round but loses" outcome more likely than a "winner trails first round" outcome. It makes the Yes scenario less likely. https://www.ktoo.org/2026/10/20/conservatives-worry-trumps-alaska-visit-may-have-done-more-harm-than-good/
- [2026-10-01] **Pollster comparison on Driver 1.** Cygnal (R-leaning) had Wilson winning 46% of Republicans, against 16% for Bronson and 13% for Taylor. It showed 15% undecided, "right-leaning," and a 3-point total gap. The Oct 20 ASR and DFP polls had undecideds near zero, with KT at 46–50%. Allocating Cygnal's undecideds heavily to Republicans would still leave KT about 3–10 points ahead on first choices. https://thealaskastory.com/poll-bernadette-wilson-surges-among-alaska-republicans-kreiss-tomkins-holds-a-narrow-edge-in-governors-race/
- [2026-10-16] **Sequence needed for Yes.** (a) First-choice shares must flip so a Republican leads KT. No poll shows this, and the nearest margin is Cygnal's roughly 20-point gap to Wilson, with KT 44%. Wilson would need Bronson and Taylor voters (about 17–21 points) and undecideds. (b) The winner must then be someone who trailed in round 1. If KT leads and wins, the answer is No. The only Yes routes are (i) Wilson leads and KT wins on transfers, or (ii) KT leads and a Republican overtakes him on transfers, the Peltola-in-2022 pattern. Route (ii) requires a final-round gap of about 6–8 points to close. Neither is shown in current polls. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-20] **Driver 4, ballot exhaustion and rank-all-three behavior, is controlled by Republican voters.** DFP's note about exhausted ballots: if every exhausted ballot from a Republican-ranking voter went to Wilson, the race would tie. This is the key swing in the final round. It does not change who leads in round 1. Wilson's own camp says GOP voters won't rank more than one (ADN, Sept 18). https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/09/18/wilson-again-calls-on-her-republican-opponents-to-drop-out-of-alaska-governors-race/
- [2026-10-23] **Driver 5, ballot and legal risk, is controlled by the courts and the Division.** A judge ruled the Lt. Gov. wrongly kept a disqualified candidate on a state House ballot (HD 22). That affects only that race. Nothing in it touches the governor's race, and no governor-ticket disqualification was found. The governor ballot has four tickets, plus registered write-in James Parkin, whom MultiState lists. A write-in could be tabulated, but its effect would be trivial. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/10/22/alaska-lt-gov-incorrectly-put-disqualified-candidate-on-the-ballot-state-judge-rules/ and https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-10-20] **Poll-error room.** Alaska Survey Research (Ivan Moore) put Trump net approval at −21. Alaska polls missed in 2022 by modest amounts. A shift of 8–10 points in KT's first-round lead would have to come from late-deciding Republican-leaning voters. https://www.ktoo.org/2026/10/20/conservatives-worry-trumps-alaska-visit-may-have-done-more-harm-than-good/
- [2026-10-05] **Mechanics.** The Division counts early, election-day and some absentee ballots from Nov 3. Overseas ballots can arrive up to day 15 (Nov 18). First-choice totals shift late. Late absentee ballots in Alaska have not been shown to be strongly partisan in either direction. A narrow first-round lead on election night could still change before Nov 18. https://www.elections.alaska.gov/doc/mp/2026/MediaPacket-2026-General.%20V3.pdf

BOTTOM LINE: Yes requires either Wilson to overtake KT's roughly 16–24-point first-choice lead (that gap is about 6–8 points in final-round simulations) or a Republican to win on transfers after trailing. No poll shows either, Bronson and Taylor are staying in, and the Nov 18 tabulation date means any official winner is probably not known by Nov 10.

NOT FOUND: Any poll after Oct 20; any official Division results (none yet); any evidence on late-absentee partisan lean; any prediction-market price specific to "winner trails in round 1."

- [2026-10-25] Kalshi's "Alaska Governor winner" market priced Kreiss-Tomkins (D) at 86%, Wilson (R) at 13% and Bronson at 0.2%. Kalshi also lists a market on Kreiss-Tomkins's first-round vote percent, but I could not see its prices. Kalshi's party market had Democrats at 86% and a "D +6.6" margin forecast. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26
- [2026-10-20] The odds aggregator defirate showed Kalshi at 82% for Kreiss-Tomkins and Gemini at 82–85%. It showed a "Polymarket US" venue at only 37%, with Wilson at 42% and Bronson at 23%. That venue had $0 volume, so it looks like an illiquid outlier. https://defirate.com/odds/governor/
- [2026-10-19] MultiState rates the race "Tilt D", which is the average of Cook, Sabato and Pluribus. It cites Polymarket at about 79% for Kreiss-Tomkins and about 22% for Wilson (those figures sum to more than 100%). It reports a RealClearPolling two-way average of Kreiss-Tomkins 53.7, Wilson 46.3. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-10-20] Data for Progress (D-aligned; fielded Oct 8–16, n=694, ±4) had first choices as Kreiss-Tomkins 46%, Wilson 28%, Bronson 12%, Taylor 9%. It had the final round at 53–47. DFP says its 2024 Alaska polls were within 2.5 points on the Trump and Begich margins. DFP notes that if every exhausted Republican-ranking ballot went to Wilson, the race would be tied. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-04] The NYT/Siena poll had first choices as Kreiss-Tomkins 40, Wilson 20, Bronson 15, Taylor 11. Alaska Survey Research (Oct 1–3) had the final round at 54–46 for Kreiss-Tomkins. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-09-18] The AARP poll (FabrizioWard/Impact Research, Sept 8–11, n=800, ±3.5) had first choices as Kreiss-Tomkins 40, Wilson 20, Bronson 14, Taylor 7, with 18% undecided. The RCV simulation was 55–45 for Kreiss-Tomkins. https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/alaska-governor/alaska-governor-moves-lean-republican-toss
- [2026-10-01] Cygnal (Sept 24–27, n=502) had Kreiss-Tomkins 44, Wilson 24, Taylor 9, Bronson 8, with 15% undecided. The three Republicans combined were at 41%. This is the closest poll, but even it has Wilson 20 points behind in the first round. https://thealaskastory.com/poll-bernadette-wilson-surges-among-alaska-republicans-kreiss-tomkins-holds-a-narrow-edge-in-governors-race/
- [2026-10-13] Trump endorsed Wilson at a Wasilla rally and called Bronson and Taylor "lesser" candidates. Both remain on the ballot. Bronson and Taylor said they would rank each other second and Wilson third. Wilson is the main Republican threat to overtake the Democrat on first choices, since Republican consolidation is the only route to that. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-10-21] Cook moved the race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic. Cook's stated risk is that Republican voters rank only one GOP candidate, which helps Kreiss-Tomkins reach a majority. Sabato also rates it Lean D. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6145770-cook-political-report-shifts-four-democrats/
- [2026-10-23] Decision Desk HQ's forecast gave Kreiss-Tomkins a 62% win probability. That is well below the markets. Cook has the race at Lean D. https://thehill.com/newsletters/on-the-ballot/6164268-the-5-governors-mansions-most-likely-to-flip-in-november
- [2026-09-23] Nate Silver's model gave Kreiss-Tomkins 80%+ as of late September. Kondik of Sabato compared the setup to Peltola in 2022. Peltola led the first round that year and went on to lose the RCV tally. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-09-22/poll-shows-democrat-with-lead-in-alaska-governors-race-but-large-swaths-remain-undecided
- [2026-08] In the primary, Kreiss-Tomkins finished first with 22.5%. Begich was second with 20.8%, then withdrew and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins. https://fairvote.org/what-to-expect-in-alaskas-2026-ranked-choice-voting-elections/
- [2026-10-20] Ballot Measure 2 (repeal of RCV and the open primary) was tied at 48–48 in the DFP poll. It would not change this election's rules. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food

BOTTOM LINE: Every public poll has Kreiss-Tomkins leading the first round by 16–24 points, and he also leads every final-round simulation. Wilson, the best-placed Republican, is at 20–28%. "Yes" would require a Republican consolidation large enough to win first choices (the pattern Peltola faced in 2022) while the Democrat still wins after transfers. That is a scenario no poll shows, and the markets price a Kreiss-Tomkins win at about 80–88%, against DDHQ's 62%. A Wilson win would almost certainly come with a first-round lead for her, which would make the question "No".

NOT FOUND: Kalshi's or Polymarket's price for the specific first-round vote-share or "winner not first-round leader" market. I also found no Metaculus or Manifold market on this question, and no poll showing a Republican leading the first round.

YES means: The certified Alaska governor winner had fewer first-choice votes than at least one other candidate. That is, the winner trailed in round 1 and won through ranked-choice transfers.

- [2026-10-24] NBC Decision Desk (via search snippet; the page fetch was refused) reports 31,138 mail-in and early in-person ballots cast, about 5% of 604K registered voters. Early in-person voting is running at over 1.5 times the 2022 pace. Higher turnout in a year when polls show a Democratic first-choice lead adds no evidence for a Republican first-round lead. It does add uncertainty to likely-voter models. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/alaska-results
- [2026-10-20] Alaska Public Media: about 7,000 people voted early by Tuesday morning, against roughly 267,000 total votes in the 2022 midterm. About 97% of the electorate has not yet voted. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-10-20/worth-the-wait-alaskans-line-up-to-vote-early
- [2026-09-06] Alaska Story, fetched. Across about 112 Alaska RCV contests in 2022–24, only 3 produced a winner who was not leading after first choices. All three were state House races in Nov 2022. In House District 15, Democrat Wells led the first count with 3,379 votes, and Republican McKay (2,812) won after the Republican Eibeck (1,026) was eliminated. That is the closest structural analogue: a split-right field and a trailing winner. No statewide race has done it. https://thealaskastory.com/rank-the-red-is-a-slogan-but-not-a-strategy-alaskas-election-history-proves-it/
- [2026-09-06] Same article: of the roughly 22 Alaska races that needed extra tabulation, about 14% produced a reversal. The 2018 Maine CD2 race (Golden trailed 45.6 to 46.3, then won 50.6–49.4) shows a trailing candidate winning on transfers by about 0.7 points. In that race the first-round gap was under 1 point. https://thealaskastory.com/rank-the-red-is-a-slogan-but-not-a-strategy-alaskas-election-history-proves-it/
- [2022-09 FairVote] Historically about 4% of RCV elections had a come-from-behind winner. The largest comeback margin recorded then was 10 points of first-round deficit. The current polling gap of 16–24 points would far exceed that record. https://fairvote.org/alaska_rcv_analysis/
- [2026-10-23] The strongest YES path is a Republican win after trailing. Wilson would need to trail Kreiss-Tomkins in first choices (the Data for Progress 46–28 figure) and then gain from Bronson and Taylor transfers. DFP's own tied-race scenario needs every exhausted Republican-ranking ballot to reach Wilson. That would require about 18 points of net transfer gain, which exceeds the largest comeback margin on record. The alternative path is a Kreiss-Tomkins win after a Wilson first-round lead. Every poll runs the other way. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-09] Debate: Wilson declined to say whom she would rank. Bronson and Taylor each said they would rank the other second and urged Republicans to rank "one, two, three". Wilson accepted rank-all-three only "in the absence of" a dropout. This is a mixed Republican message. It is the mechanism that could raise transfers to Wilson, but only if Wilson is ranked on the ballots of the Bronson and Taylor voters. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/10/09/live-alaskas-gubernatorial-candidates-clash-debate-state/
- [2026-10-10] ADN: Dunleavy and GOP chair Warfield convened a post-primary meeting of the three Republicans to broker consolidation, and it failed. Party leaders settled on a "Rank 1 2 3" message. The party has now put its weight behind ranking all three, which is the only structural route to YES. https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/10/10/failed-as-a-party-bronson-criticizes-wilson-and-gop-leaders-as-republicans-jostle-over-strategy-in-alaska-governors-race/
- [2026-10-23] Alaska Story: the Wilson campaign's strongest evidence is Cygnal (Sept 24–27), in which Wilson doubled her primary support and is the only Republican with a realistic path. Cygnal had the three Republicans combined at 41% against 44% for Kreiss-Tomkins, with 15% undecided. If most undecideds break to Republicans, the gap narrows to a few points. That narrows the gap but still leaves Wilson trailing in first choices unless the Republican total also consolidates behind her. https://thealaskastory.com/poll-bernadette-wilson-surges-among-alaska-republicans-kreiss-tomkins-holds-a-narrow-edge-in-governors-race/
- [2024-11] Precedent for polling misses: Peltola led the 2024 House primary with a majority, then trailed Begich in the first round, 46.4 to 48.6. Wrangell Sentinel and Reason both note this. The Alaska electorate moved to the right between primary and general polling. That is the type of shift a Wilson first-round lead would need, at a much larger scale. https://reason.com/2024/11/21/alaska-keeps-ranked-choice-voting-by-razor-thin-margin/
- [2026-10-19] Counting caveat: the Division of Elections reports only first-choice totals during the 15-day count and runs the RCV tally on Nov 18, after the Nov 10 resolution date. "Official results" for the question may be unavailable by resolution unless a first-round majority exists. A close first-round count could leave the question unresolved or dependent on unofficial totals. This is a resolution-timing risk, not a path to YES. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/19/alaska-buzzkill-vote-counting-could-leave-senate-race-undecided-weeks/

BOTTOM LINE: The most plausible YES path is a Wilson win on transfers after trailing Kreiss-Tomkins in round 1. It needs a record comeback margin of well over 10 points, and no poll shows it. The only statewide-race analogues are Maine 2018 and three Alaska House races from 2022, all with first-round gaps of a few points or less.

NOT FOUND: Any poll showing a Republican ahead in first choices. A statewide RCV comeback larger than 10 points. Official Division of Elections results. A fetchable NBC page (access denied).

YES means: the person who ends up winning Alaska's 2026 governor race had fewer first-choice votes than another candidate in the official first round. In practice that is a come-from-behind winner after ranked-choice (RCV) transfers.

- [2026-10-22] Early-voting data cut against Republican consolidation. The Alaska Story's first early-vote snapshot shows Democratic-leaning voters leading the opening early vote, with overall participation trailing 2022. I saw this only as a headline and teaser on a fetched page, not the full article. https://thealaskastory.com/democratic-leaning-voters-lead-alaskas-opening-early-vote-as-overall-participation-trails-2022/

- [2026-10-05] The Division of Elections timeline limits how Yes could be settled. First-choice results come out on election night, Nov 3, from about 8:45–9 p.m. Alaska Public Media's explainer says RCV tabulation is not run until Nov 18, and certification is targeted for Nov 25. The Division's media packet confirms that election-night reports show only first choices. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-10-05/what-to-know-about-alaskas-general-election
  - The Nov 10 resolution date falls before the RCV tabulation.
  - If Kreiss-Tomkins (the Democrat, "KT") tops the first round, as every poll shows, and nobody has a majority, a Nov 10 resolver could not yet name the RCV winner. A Yes would then require a later Wilson win, for example the Nov 18 tabulation.
  - If KT has more than 50% of first choices, the winner is known on election night and the answer is No.

- [2026-10-07] I read the Alaska Story's tally of the first-round margin Wilson would need. One scenario has her at about 38% of first choices if KT gets 44%. She would still be 6 points behind and would need a large transfer edge to win. I read it as treating a win from behind as a separate hard task, not a baseline outcome. None of the published RCV simulations shows Wilson winning the final round. https://thealaskastory.com/alaska-pollster-reveals-that-bernadette-wilson-has-led-republicans-in-all-15-of-his-polls/

- [2026-10-07] Transfers may not favor Wilson even in a Republican-leaning race. The same article reports that about a quarter of AARP respondents ranked neither finalist, and that group leaned Trump in 2024. Those ballots exhaust, which shrinks the transfer pool that a trailing Republican would need. Bronson (about $6k cash) and Taylor (about $30k) have little money to run a ranking campaign. https://thealaskastory.com/alaska-pollster-reveals-that-bernadette-wilson-has-led-republicans-in-all-15-of-his-polls/

- [2026-10-10] There is no GOP consolidation mechanism. The ADN reports that a post-primary meeting convened by Dunleavy and the party chair failed to broker a deal. Participants dropped the "rank the red" slogan for "Rank 1 2 3 or get JKT". Neither Dunleavy nor the Alaska GOP central committee has endorsed anyone. https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/10/10/failed-as-a-party-bronson-criticizes-wilson-and-gop-leaders-as-republicans-jostle-over-strategy-in-alaska-governors-race/
  - Fragmentation keeps Wilson's first-round share capped, which makes a first-round deficit for the winner less likely.

- [2026-08-18] The primary showed KT's organizational strength. He beat every public poll and moved from behind to first place, finishing with 36,961 votes (22.52%). His strength is get-out-the-vote and fundraising, which suggests his first-round poll lead is not soft. Poll error would have to run in the Republicans' favor by about 18–20 points. https://thealaskastory.com/polls-got-alaska-governor-finalists-right-but-missed-jkts-stealth-late-rise-to-first-place/

- [2024-11] The most recent Alaska RCV race with a winner from behind was the opposite structure. In the 2024 US House race, Begich led the first round (48.41% to Peltola's 46.37%) and won in round 3. In 2022 the first-round leader won every Alaska RCV contest: Peltola 48.7%, Murkowski 43.37%, and Dunleavy outright. I found no Alaska RCV general where the winner trailed in first choices. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Alaska_elections and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska_elections

- [2026-10-23] Several of the polls in the colleagues' reports have KT at about 40–50% in first choices. Two of the colleagues' polls (Data for Progress and Alaska Survey Research) put him at 46–50%. A first-round majority above 50% would end the question immediately. The Division's rule is that more than 50% of first choices wins outright. Kalshi also lists a separate market on KT's first-round vote percent. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26

- [2026-10-20] Even the poll most favorable to Republicans, Data for Progress, does not reverse the first-round order. Its tied scenario assumed every exhausted ballot from a voter who ranked a Republican went to Wilson. That scenario produces a tie in the final round, not a first-round Wilson lead. KT stays ahead in first choices in that scenario. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food

BOTTOM LINE: For Yes, a Republican would have to win after trailing KT by a double-digit first-round gap, or polls would have to miss by about 20 points. The polls, the primary and Alaska RCV history all point the other way, and a KT first-round lead with KT winning resolves No. The Nov 3 first-choice count versus the Nov 18 RCV tabulation also leaves the question unresolved by Nov 10 only in the unusual case where KT leads but falls short of a majority.

NOT FOUND: Any Alaska or US precedent in my sources where an RCV winner trailed in first choices in a comparable race. Any poll showing a Republican ahead on first choices. Kalshi's price for the first-round vote-share market. The full text of the Oct 22 Alaska Beacon early-voting article (fetch failed).

12 AskNews articles (newest first; 5 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-24] Alaska Gubernatorial Candidates Debate Subsistence Rights and Fisheries at AFN Convention
KPVI — https://www.kpvi.com/news/regional_news/gubernatorial-candidates-make-their-pitch-at-the-alaska-federation-of-natives-convention/article_b88b79fd-b1f6-5541-94fc-f0562ea1461b.html
  - On Friday, October 23, 2026, gubernatorial candidates Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Democrat), Dave Bronson (Republican), and Treg Taylor (Republican) participated in a panel discussion at the 60th annual Alaska Federation of Natives (AFN) convention, which represents over 140,000 people, or nearly one in five Alaskans.
  - While the candidates found common ground on education funding, housing, public safety, and rebuilding the Alaska Marine Highway System, significant divides emerged regarding subsistence rights and fisheries management.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state lawmaker from Sitka, strongly supported the 'rural preference' for subsistence food-gathering rights enshrined in the 1990s-era 'Katie John' decision, stating it should be state policy to support subsistence.
  - In contrast, Treg Taylor, who served as Attorney General under current Gov.
  - Mike Dunleavy, spearheaded a legal campaign to overturn this rural priority, which was appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2025.
  - Another divergence appeared between the two Republicans on the Community Development Quota (CDQ) system; Taylor praised it for empowering rural coastal communities, while Bronson, the former Anchorage mayor, opposed it, arguing that large-scale trawling destroys fish stocks and cultures.
  - All three candidates agreed on expanding the state boards of fisheries and game from seven to 11 members to increase diversity and reduce the influence of large commercial operators.
  - They also committed to elevating tribal issues in their administrations and forward funding for education.
  - Regarding public safety, Taylor noted that during his tenure as Attorney General, violent crime was reduced by 5% and sexual assaults by 26%, though he acknowledged Alaska remains the worst in the nation for these crimes.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins criticized Gov.

[2026-10-23] Alaska Judge Rules Lt. Gov. Incorrectly Placed Disqualified Candidate on Ballot
Alaska Beacon — https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/10/22/alaska-lt-gov-incorrectly-put-disqualified-candidate-on-the-ballot-state-judge-rules/
  - Anchorage Superior Court Judge Josie Garton ruled on Thursday, October 22, 2026, that Alaska Lt.
  - Gov.
  - Nancy Dahlstrom and the Division of Elections acted incorrectly by placing disqualified Republican candidate Jose Tagle on the ballot for state House District 22.
  - The decision, published on October 22, 2026, means 'Tagle’s election may not be certified if he does win a majority of votes in the general election,' according to Judge Garton.
  - Tagle is running against Democratic incumbent Rep.
  - Ted Eischeid in a district that supported Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris two years ago.
  - The ruling stems from Tagle's failure to submit a financial disclosure form, a violation cited by the Alaska Public Offices Commission (APOC) in late August.
  - Although APOC recommended disqualification, Dahlstrom reversed the decision days later, citing a Department of Law review that allegedly found issues with other candidates' forms.
  - The Alaska Beacon analyzed this review and found many flagged problems were minor or non-existent.
  - The Alaska Democratic Party, represented by executive director Jenny-Marie Stryker, filed the lawsuit, stating that 'Mr. Tagle’s completely blank disclosure left Alaskans in the dark.' Judge Garton rejected the state attorneys' argument that APOC's recommendation was not final, concluding that state law requires the Lt.

[2026-10-23] U.S. Midterm Elections: Seven Key Governor Races to Watch
www.ntdtv.com — https://www.ntdtv.com/b5/2026/10/23/a104144483.html
  - As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach the November 3 voting date, seven state governor races have emerged as the primary focus.
  - According to independent analysis firm Decision Desk HQ, as of October 22, Democrats hold a lead in 22 of the 36 state races, with two considered toss-ups.
  - The Cook Political Report, cited by The Hill, highlights the following key contests: In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, endorsed by President Trump, faces Democrat Amy Acton; while Trump won the state by 11 percentage points in 2024, Acton currently holds a 60% probability of winning, which would make her the state's first Democratic governor in 20 years.
  - In Georgia, Republican Rick Jackson has invested nearly $100 million of his own funds to secure the nomination and is in a tight race against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.
  - In Nevada, incumbent Republican Governor Joe Lombardo is favored with a 51% win probability against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, with the campaign centered on cost of living and data center development.
  - In Alaska, a three-way split among Republican candidates may allow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins to win.
  - In Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa but remains the likely winner.
  - In Oregon, Republican Christine Drazan attempts to break the Democratic Party's 40-year hold, with polls showing a narrow margin.
  - Finally, in Wisconsin, Democrat David Crowley holds a slight lead over Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany.

[2026-10-23] KTNA and Partners Release 2026 Alaska Voters Guide Ahead of November Election
KTNA 88.9 FM — https://ktna.org/2026-alaska-voters-guide/
  - KTNA 88.9 FM, in collaboration with KTOO, the Alaska Beacon, and the Anchorage Daily News, has released a 2026 Alaska Voters Guide for the November 3 general election, with early voting currently underway in most of the state.
  - The guide features fresh Q&As with candidates in the three statewide races: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and governor and lieutenant governor.
  - For state House and Senate races, the publication includes previously conducted primary Q&As, updated to reflect candidates who advanced or dropped out.
  - The project was supported by grant funding from the Alaska Center for Excellence in Journalism.

[2026-10-21] Cook Political Report Shifts Outlook on 2026 Midterm Governor Races
인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴 — https://www.hankyung.com/article/202610214521i
  - With the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, the Cook Political Report has adjusted its forecasts, moving Alaska from a 'toss up' to a 'lean Democratic' race, while downgrading Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Vermont from 'Republican solid' to 'likely Republican'.
  - Currently, Republicans hold 26 governorships and Democrats 24; the 36 governorships up for election are split 18-18.
  - If Democrats win two additional seats, they could secure a majority (26-24).
  - The article notes that while governorships do not directly impact federal legislation, they influence the implementation of President Trump's policies at the state level, particularly in Alaska where a Democratic governor could block pipeline projects.
  - In Alaska, incumbent Republican Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and the state's Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system favors the single Democratic candidate against three Republican contenders.
  - In Iowa, a 'best opportunity' for Democrats, incumbent Kim Reynolds is not running, and the Republican candidate Jack Ryan is distancing himself from President Trump, while the Democratic candidate Rob Sand has a history of close victories.
  - In Ohio, the race features former DOGE head Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican) against Democrat Amy Acton; although Ramaswamy is supported by Trump and Elon Musk, the Cook Political Report notes he has failed to overcome negative sentiment despite spending millions on ads.
  - In Nebraska, incumbent Jim Pillen is considered the least popular governor in the U.S., and a split in the conservative vote may benefit Democrat Lynne Wold.
  - In Oklahoma, incumbent Kevin Stitt is term-limited, and the Republican candidate Mike Mazey faces challenges due to a rift with President Trump, while the Democratic candidate Cindy Riddle Munsen campaigns on opposing tax cuts and appealing to working-class voters.

[2026-10-02] Kreiss-Tomkins Leads Fractured GOP Field in Alaska Gubernatorial Race
Alternet.org — https://www.alternet.org/alaska-gop-2677986070/
  - In the October 2, 2026, Alaska gubernatorial race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is positioned to potentially become the first Democratic governor of Alaska since Tony Knowles (1998-2002) due to a fractured Republican field.
  - In the August open primary, 37-year-old Kreiss-Tomkins secured 40% of first-preference votes, while Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor collectively obtained 41%.
  - Under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, Kreiss-Tomkins defeated the leading Republican, Wilson, by a 10-point margin.
  - Political observer Larry Persily, who previously owned the Wrangell Sentinel and edited the Anchorage Daily News, described the Republican candidates to The Guardian as 'a bunch of political losers.' Wilson has requested that Bronson and Taylor withdraw to unify the party, but neither has agreed; Bronson argues conservatives can win if they rank all GOP candidates.
  - The election occurs in a state President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024, where retiring Governor Mike Dunleavy is leaving office.
  - Key campaign issues include the state's Permanent Fund Dividend, with the 2026 payment set at $1,000 plus $200 for energy relief.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins has focused on grassroots outreach, traveling hundreds of miles by boat along the Yukon River to visit small villages, while prioritizing education and cost reduction.
  - Democrat Tom Begich had previously placed third in the primary before withdrawing to support Kreiss-Tomkins, allowing Taylor to advance to the final four.

[2026-09-23] Poll Shows Democrat Kreiss-Tomkins Leading Alaska Governor's Race by 10 Points
KTOO — https://www.ktoo.org/2026/09/23/poll-shows-democrat-with-lead-in-alaska-governors-race-but-large-swaths-remain-undecided/
  - In the Alaska governor's race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds a 10-point lead over Republican Bernadette Wilson according to an AARP-sponsored poll, which utilized ranked choice tabulation.
  - Published on September 23, 2026, the article notes that while Wilson has called on fellow Republicans Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor to drop out, both have declined, urging voters to rank Republicans to overcome the Democrat's lead.
  - Forecasters, including Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball and Nate Silver, have classified the race as a 'toss-up' or given Kreiss-Tomkins an 80-plus percent chance of winning.
  - The poll indicates Kreiss-Tomkins would secure 40% in the first round, potentially winning the final round by 10 percentage points if substantial swaths of Republican voters decline to rank Wilson.
  - However, pollsters Bob Ward and Matt Hogan highlight that 18% of voters remain undecided, a group that leans considerably to the right and favored President Donald Trump by more than 30 points.
  - This follows a similar 2022 dynamic where Democrat Mary Peltola won despite Republicans splitting the vote.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins' campaign expressed optimism, noting it would be the first time Democrats have taken the governor's mansion since Tony Knowles left office in 2002, a notable shift in a state that reelected Republican Gov.
  - Mike Dunleavy by a landslide in 2022 and voted for President Donald Trump by a 13-point margin two years prior.

[2026-09-12] Alaska Ranked-Choice Voting Failure: 60% Bullet Vote Rate Threatens Republican Victory in 2026 (opinion)
Redstate — https://redstate.com/wardclark/2026/09/12/ranked-choice-fail-in-2024-60-percent-of-alaska-voters-didnt-rank-choices-n2206843
  - A RedState opinion piece published on September 12, 2026, by an unnamed author analyzes the performance of Alaska's ranked-choice voting (RCV) system, citing a report by Alaska Public Media's Liz Ruskin.
  - The article states that 'bullet voting'—where voters select only one candidate without ranking others—rose from 40% in the 2022 election to 60% in the 2024 election, according to Division of Elections data analyzed with AI code and verified by researchers.
  - The author argues that this trend poses a 'recipe for disaster' for Republicans in the upcoming 2026 election cycle.
  - In the Senate and Governor's races, the author notes the presence of 'one Democrat and three Republicans,' while the House race features 'one Republican' (Nick Begich III) against a Democrat, a Libertarian, and a non-partisan candidate.
  - The article claims that if 'over half of Republicans' continue to bullet vote, it will guarantee a Democrat win in the second or third round of tally.
  - Consequently, the author urges Alaskan Republicans to 'rank every Republican candidate' to ensure the election of 'Senator Sullivan,' 'Nick Begich III,' and a 'Republican governor.' The piece also highlights Ballot Measure 2, which aims to eliminate RCV, noting that a previous repeal attempt failed by '700+ votes' despite the pro-RCV side outspending the pro-repeal side.
  - The article concludes with a call to action for voters to 'rank the red' and includes an editor's note stating that the 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of 'President Trump's America First agenda' and that Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

[2026-08-29] Alaska RCV Follies: Democrats Consolidate, Republicans Face Vote Split (opinion)
Redstate — https://redstate.com/wardclark/2026/08/29/the-alaska-rcv-follies-continue-now-only-one-dem-gubernatorial-candidate-remains-n2206228
  - In Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial race under the new Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system, Democrat Tom Begich withdrew on Friday to endorse fellow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, who led the primary with 22.5% of the vote compared to Begich's 20.8%.
  - This leaves only one Democrat on the November ballot, allowing Kreiss-Tomkins to consolidate support.
  - Conversely, Republican Dave Bronson, who had previously signed a pledge to withdraw if he did not win a primary majority, announced he is 'not backing down' and will remain in the race alongside businesswoman Bernadette Wilson.
  - The article claims this outcome, potentially leaving up to three Republicans on the ballot, was 'designed' by the RCV system, which the author argues was heavily supported by Democrats and Senator Lisa Murkowski.
  - The author urges Republicans to either consolidate behind Wilson or rank all Republican candidates to prevent a Democratic victory, noting candidates must withdraw by Monday, August 31st.
  - The article concludes with an editorial note stating the 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of 'President Trump's America First agenda.'.

[2026-08-28] Alaska Election Analysis: Governor's Race Split, Senate Decoy Controversy, and Ranked-Choice Voting Concerns (interview)
"I'm Glad You Said That" - Jim Minnery Talks Faith & Politics — https://www.buzzsprout.com/695410/episodes/19716904-suzanne-downing-and-what-just-happened-in-the-alaska-primary-election.mp3
  - In a podcast episode of 'I'm Glad You Said That' hosted by Jim Minnery, conservative journalist Suzanne Downing of The Alaska Story analyzes the 2026 Alaska primary and upcoming general election landscape.
  - Minnery highlights the Alaska Governor's race, where Democrat Chris Tompkins leads with 22.2% (34,215 votes), followed by Tom Begich at 20.5% (31,617 votes), Republican Bernadette Wilson at 10.2% (15,731 votes), and Republican Dave Bronson at 8.2% (12,598 votes).
  - Minnery criticizes ranked-choice voting as a mechanism that splits the conservative vote and could allow 'Republican in name only' candidates like Click Bishop to win if top vote-getters drop out.
  - Regarding the U.S. Senate race, Downing reports that Democrat Mary Peltola leads with 48% of the vote, while incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan trails at almost 43%.
  - Downing alleges that a 'decoy' candidate, Dan J.
  - Sullivan, filed initially with the same middle initial as the real senator to confuse voters, ultimately receiving 3,235 votes (almost 2.5%).
  - Downing claims the Department of Justice has opened an investigation into this confusion, describing it as 'fraud,' and notes that national Democrats, including Chuck Schumer, are targeting the seat.
  - Downing also identifies a Washington D.C. left-wing PAC distributing a fake newspaper called 'The Alaska Independent' to attack Republicans.
  - The discussion emphasizes the national stakes, including potential impeachment proceedings if Democrats control Congress, and the importance of conservative media outlets like The Alaska Story in providing a counter-narrative.

[2026-08-19] Alaska 2026 Gubernatorial Primary: Democrats and Republicans Advance to November Ballot
International Business Times Singapore — https://www.ibtimes.sg/alaska-governor-primary-results-2026-democrats-lead-crowded-field-four-advance-november-92458
  - In Alaska's Aug. 18, 2026, gubernatorial primary, Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich and Republicans Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson advanced to the Nov. 3 general election under the state's nonpartisan top-four system, with results based on 60.2% of precincts reporting.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins led with 24,632 votes (21.64%), followed by Begich with 22,252 votes (19.55%), Wilson with 12,392 votes (10.89%), and Bronson with 9,778 votes (8.59%), though these totals remain unofficial pending absentee ballot processing and certification on Aug. 31.
  - The open seat contest follows Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy's final term, and the general election will use ranked-choice voting.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative, raised over $2 million and campaigned on a moratorium on new data centers and economic reform, while Begich, a former state senator, focused on oil and gas revenue and education funding with over $1 million raised.
  - Wilson, a first-time candidate, advocated for larger Permanent Fund dividends and lower spending, and Bronson, a former Anchorage mayor, emphasized fishing industry protections and fiscal experience.
  - The race remains subject to change as additional ballots are counted, with several other candidates within a few percentage points of the fourth-place spot.

[2026-06-02] Seventeen Candidates Register for 2026 Alaska Governor Race
Juneau Independent — https://www.juneauindependent.com/post/seventeen-people-sign-up-to-run-in-2026-alaska-governor-race-top-four-advance-in-aug-18-primary
  - Seventeen people have registered as candidates for the Alaska governor race for the fall 2026 election, with the final slate to be determined by the June 27 withdrawal deadline.
  - The field includes 11 Republicans, three Democrats, and three independents, including former state Sen.
  - Lesil McGuire and former Gov.
  - Bill Walker, both running as independents.
  - Incumbent Gov.
  - Mike Dunleavy is term-limited.
  - On the last day of registration (5 p.m.
  - Monday), Lt.
  - Gov.
  - Nancy Dahlstrom, a Republican, dropped out after raising a small amount of money.

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will another candidate win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Another-candidate winner market; informs the winner but not first-round ordering; no price.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate J win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate K win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate L win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate M win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate N win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate O win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate P win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate Q win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate R win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_gubernatorial_election ; https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: Election day is November 3, 2026, so it hasn't happened yet and the Wikipedia page shows no general-election results. The latest polls have Democrat Kreiss-Tomkins leading on first-choice votes: NYT/Siena has him at 40% to 20% for Wilson, 15% for Bronson and 11% for Taylor, and Cygnal (Sept 27) has him at 44% to Wilson's 24%. He also leads the final ranked-choice round (Alaska Survey Research, Oct 1–3: 54–46; RCP average +7.4), and Polymarket gives him roughly a 77–79% chance of winning.
  Last updated: Polling as of Oct 20, 2026 (most recent dated report); Wikipedia page date unknown | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: Kreiss-Tomkins won the Aug 18 primary with 22.5%, and Wilson was the top Republican with about 10%. If polls hold, the first-round leader (Kreiss-Tomkins) also wins, which would mean No. Yes mainly needs a Republican, most likely Wilson, to trail on first choices and then overtake Kreiss-Tomkins on transfers from Bronson and Taylor voters. Polling suggests about a quarter of GOP voters don't rank anyone, which hurts that path. Cook rated the race a Toss Up in September; MultiState rates it Tilt D.
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_gubernatorial_election (HTTP 200)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska:
  The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won re-election to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.

  2022 Alaska gubernatorial election:
  The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.

  Instant-runoff voting:
  Instant-runoff voting is a single-winner ranked voting election system where one or more eliminations are used to simulate multiple runoff elections. In each round, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes among the remaining candidates is eliminated. This continues until only one candidate is left. Instant runoff falls under the plurality-with-elimination family of voting methods, and is thus closely related to methods like the two-round system and party primary.

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
# Alaska governor 2026: polls and ranked-choice results

The general election is November 3, 2026. The four candidates are Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor. The most recent polls in these results are dated October 20. I ran two searches, and their results overlap, so I've grouped the findings by query.

## Query 1: General election poll, ranked-choice first choice, October

**First-choice polls (270toWin table, https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/alaska)**

| Pollster | Date | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) | Wilson (R) | Bronson (R) | Taylor (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 10/20 | 46% | 28% | 12% | 9% |
| Alaska Survey Research | 10/20 | 50% | 30% | 12% | 8% |
| Alaska Survey Research | 10/06 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 10% |
| Siena College | 10/04 | 40% | 20% | 15% | 11% |

- 
The table lists a three-poll average of 45.3% for Kreiss-Tomkins, 26.0% for Wilson, 13.0% for Bronson and 9.3% for Taylor.

- The same table lists two September polls. 
co/efficient (9/17) had Kreiss-Tomkins at 43%, and AARP (9/17) had him at 40%.


**Final-round (ranked-choice) results (MultiState, https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026)**
- 
The New York Times/Siena poll has Kreiss-Tomkins at 40% of first choices to 20% for Wilson, 15% for Bronson and 11% for Taylor.

- 
An Alaska Survey Research poll (October 1–3) had him beating Wilson 54 to 46 in the final ranked-choice round.

- 
The RealClearPolling average of two-way matchups has Kreiss-Tomkins at 53.7 and Wilson at 46.3, based on three polls.

- 
MultiState rates the race Tilt D.


**Betting markets**
- 
MultiState says Polymarket gives Kreiss-Tomkins about a 79% chance of winning.

- A Kalshi page, which showed an age of "0 days," 
lists Kreiss-Tomkins at 86% and Wilson at 13%.
 (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26)

**Context**
- FairVote notes that 
Kreiss-Tomkins finished first in the August primary with 22.5%. Democrat Tom Begich was second with 20.8%, but withdrew after the primary and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins.
 (https://fairvote.org/what-to-expect-in-alaskas-2026-ranked-choice-voting-elections/)
- FairVote adds that 
the NYT poll shows a wide first-choice lead for Kreiss-Tomkins that narrows significantly in the RCV tally, after most Republican voters consolidate behind Wilson.

- 
Bronson and Taylor released a joint video encouraging Republicans to rank all three Republican candidates.

- 
Ballot Measure 2 would end ranked-choice general elections and bring back party primaries.
 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_elections)

## Query 2: Democrat vs. Republicans, ranked-choice simulation

**AARP poll (FabrizioWard/Impact Research), about September 17**
- Cook Political Report says 
Kreiss-Tomkins took 40% in the first round. Wilson had 20%, Bronson 14% and Taylor 7%, with 18% undecided.

- 
In a ranked-choice simulation, Kreiss-Tomkins wins 55%–45%.
 (https://www.cookpolitica

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will another candidate win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Another-candidate winner market; informs the winner but not first-round ordering; no price.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate J win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate K win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate L win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate M win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate N win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate O win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate P win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate Q win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate R win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.

You are an elite superforecaster. Read ALL the research below — the raw tool outputs, the news bundle and the six research reports — and give one calibrated probability for this Metaculus binary question.

## Question
Will the winner of Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial election receive fewer votes in the first round than another candidate?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Alaska uses a ranked choice voting system, with 3 Republican tickets and 1 Democratic ticket.

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "fcdc4761291674f2", "sheet_id": "47"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if the winner of the [2026 Alaska gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_gubernatorial_election) receives fewer initial first-choice vote counts than another candidate, according to official results.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_gubernatorial_election ; https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: Election day is November 3, 2026, so it hasn't happened yet and the Wikipedia page shows no general-election results. The latest polls have Democrat Kreiss-Tomkins leading on first-choice votes: NYT/Siena has him at 40% to 20% for Wilson, 15% for Bronson and 11% for Taylor, and Cygnal (Sept 27) has him at 44% to Wilson's 24%. He also leads the final ranked-choice round (Alaska Survey Research, Oct 1–3: 54–46; RCP average +7.4), and Polymarket gives him roughly a 77–79% chance of winning.
  Last updated: Polling as of Oct 20, 2026 (most recent dated report); Wikipedia page date unknown | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: Kreiss-Tomkins won the Aug 18 primary with 22.5%, and Wilson was the top Republican with about 10%. If polls hold, the first-round leader (Kreiss-Tomkins) also wins, which would mean No. Yes mainly needs a Republican, most likely Wilson, to trail on first choices and then overtake Kreiss-Tomkins on transfers from Bronson and Taylor voters. Polling suggests about a quarter of GOP voters don't rank anyone, which hurts that path. Cook rated the race a Toss Up in September; MultiState rates it Tilt D.
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_gubernatorial_election (HTTP 200)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska:
  The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won re-election to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.

  2022 Alaska gubernatorial election:
  The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.

  Instant-runoff voting:
  Instant-runoff voting is a single-winner ranked voting election system where one or more eliminations are used to simulate multiple runoff elections. In each round, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes among the remaining candidates is eliminated. This continues until only one candidate is left. Instant runoff falls under the plurality-with-elimination family of voting methods, and is thus closely related to methods like the two-round system and party primary.

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
# Alaska governor 2026: polls and ranked-choice results

The general election is November 3, 2026. The four candidates are Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor. The most recent polls in these results are dated October 20. I ran two searches, and their results overlap, so I've grouped the findings by query.

## Query 1: General election poll, ranked-choice first choice, October

**First-choice polls (270toWin table, https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/alaska)**

| Pollster | Date | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) | Wilson (R) | Bronson (R) | Taylor (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 10/20 | 46% | 28% | 12% | 9% |
| Alaska Survey Research | 10/20 | 50% | 30% | 12% | 8% |
| Alaska Survey Research | 10/06 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 10% |
| Siena College | 10/04 | 40% | 20% | 15% | 11% |

- 
The table lists a three-poll average of 45.3% for Kreiss-Tomkins, 26.0% for Wilson, 13.0% for Bronson and 9.3% for Taylor.

- The same table lists two September polls. 
co/efficient (9/17) had Kreiss-Tomkins at 43%, and AARP (9/17) had him at 40%.


**Final-round (ranked-choice) results (MultiState, https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026)**
- 
The New York Times/Siena poll has Kreiss-Tomkins at 40% of first choices to 20% for Wilson, 15% for Bronson and 11% for Taylor.

- 
An Alaska Survey Research poll (October 1–3) had him beating Wilson 54 to 46 in the final ranked-choice round.

- 
The RealClearPolling average of two-way matchups has Kreiss-Tomkins at 53.7 and Wilson at 46.3, based on three polls.

- 
MultiState rates the race Tilt D.


**Betting markets**
- 
MultiState says Polymarket gives Kreiss-Tomkins about a 79% chance of winning.

- A Kalshi page, which showed an age of "0 days," 
lists Kreiss-Tomkins at 86% and Wilson at 13%.
 (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26)

**Context**
- FairVote notes that 
Kreiss-Tomkins finished first in the August primary with 22.5%. Democrat Tom Begich was second with 20.8%, but withdrew after the primary and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins.
 (https://fairvote.org/what-to-expect-in-alaskas-2026-ranked-choice-voting-elections/)
- FairVote adds that 
the NYT poll shows a wide first-choice lead for Kreiss-Tomkins that narrows significantly in the RCV tally, after most Republican voters consolidate behind Wilson.

- 
Bronson and Taylor released a joint video encouraging Republicans to rank all three Republican candidates.

- 
Ballot Measure 2 would end ranked-choice general elections and bring back party primaries.
 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_elections)

## Query 2: Democrat vs. Republicans, ranked-choice simulation

**AARP poll (FabrizioWard/Impact Research), about September 17**
- Cook Political Report says 
Kreiss-Tomkins took 40% in the first round. Wilson had 20%, Bronson 14% and Taylor 7%, with 18% undecided.

- 
In a ranked-choice simulation, Kreiss-Tomkins wins 55%–45%.
 (https://www.cookpolitica

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will another candidate win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Another-candidate winner market; informs the winner but not first-round ordering; no price.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate J win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate K win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate L win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate M win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate N win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate O win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate P win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate Q win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Candidate R win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — Candidate winner market for Alaska governor; winner identity only, not first-round comparison.

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-25; forecasting closes 2026-10-25; resolves 2026-11-10. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
12 AskNews articles (newest first; 5 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-24] Alaska Gubernatorial Candidates Debate Subsistence Rights and Fisheries at AFN Convention
KPVI — https://www.kpvi.com/news/regional_news/gubernatorial-candidates-make-their-pitch-at-the-alaska-federation-of-natives-convention/article_b88b79fd-b1f6-5541-94fc-f0562ea1461b.html
  - On Friday, October 23, 2026, gubernatorial candidates Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Democrat), Dave Bronson (Republican), and Treg Taylor (Republican) participated in a panel discussion at the 60th annual Alaska Federation of Natives (AFN) convention, which represents over 140,000 people, or nearly one in five Alaskans.
  - While the candidates found common ground on education funding, housing, public safety, and rebuilding the Alaska Marine Highway System, significant divides emerged regarding subsistence rights and fisheries management.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state lawmaker from Sitka, strongly supported the 'rural preference' for subsistence food-gathering rights enshrined in the 1990s-era 'Katie John' decision, stating it should be state policy to support subsistence.
  - In contrast, Treg Taylor, who served as Attorney General under current Gov.
  - Mike Dunleavy, spearheaded a legal campaign to overturn this rural priority, which was appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2025.
  - Another divergence appeared between the two Republicans on the Community Development Quota (CDQ) system; Taylor praised it for empowering rural coastal communities, while Bronson, the former Anchorage mayor, opposed it, arguing that large-scale trawling destroys fish stocks and cultures.
  - All three candidates agreed on expanding the state boards of fisheries and game from seven to 11 members to increase diversity and reduce the influence of large commercial operators.
  - They also committed to elevating tribal issues in their administrations and forward funding for education.
  - Regarding public safety, Taylor noted that during his tenure as Attorney General, violent crime was reduced by 5% and sexual assaults by 26%, though he acknowledged Alaska remains the worst in the nation for these crimes.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins criticized Gov.

[2026-10-23] Alaska Judge Rules Lt. Gov. Incorrectly Placed Disqualified Candidate on Ballot
Alaska Beacon — https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/10/22/alaska-lt-gov-incorrectly-put-disqualified-candidate-on-the-ballot-state-judge-rules/
  - Anchorage Superior Court Judge Josie Garton ruled on Thursday, October 22, 2026, that Alaska Lt.
  - Gov.
  - Nancy Dahlstrom and the Division of Elections acted incorrectly by placing disqualified Republican candidate Jose Tagle on the ballot for state House District 22.
  - The decision, published on October 22, 2026, means 'Tagle’s election may not be certified if he does win a majority of votes in the general election,' according to Judge Garton.
  - Tagle is running against Democratic incumbent Rep.
  - Ted Eischeid in a district that supported Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris two years ago.
  - The ruling stems from Tagle's failure to submit a financial disclosure form, a violation cited by the Alaska Public Offices Commission (APOC) in late August.
  - Although APOC recommended disqualification, Dahlstrom reversed the decision days later, citing a Department of Law review that allegedly found issues with other candidates' forms.
  - The Alaska Beacon analyzed this review and found many flagged problems were minor or non-existent.
  - The Alaska Democratic Party, represented by executive director Jenny-Marie Stryker, filed the lawsuit, stating that 'Mr. Tagle’s completely blank disclosure left Alaskans in the dark.' Judge Garton rejected the state attorneys' argument that APOC's recommendation was not final, concluding that state law requires the Lt.

[2026-10-23] U.S. Midterm Elections: Seven Key Governor Races to Watch
www.ntdtv.com — https://www.ntdtv.com/b5/2026/10/23/a104144483.html
  - As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach the November 3 voting date, seven state governor races have emerged as the primary focus.
  - According to independent analysis firm Decision Desk HQ, as of October 22, Democrats hold a lead in 22 of the 36 state races, with two considered toss-ups.
  - The Cook Political Report, cited by The Hill, highlights the following key contests: In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, endorsed by President Trump, faces Democrat Amy Acton; while Trump won the state by 11 percentage points in 2024, Acton currently holds a 60% probability of winning, which would make her the state's first Democratic governor in 20 years.
  - In Georgia, Republican Rick Jackson has invested nearly $100 million of his own funds to secure the nomination and is in a tight race against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.
  - In Nevada, incumbent Republican Governor Joe Lombardo is favored with a 51% win probability against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, with the campaign centered on cost of living and data center development.
  - In Alaska, a three-way split among Republican candidates may allow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins to win.
  - In Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa but remains the likely winner.
  - In Oregon, Republican Christine Drazan attempts to break the Democratic Party's 40-year hold, with polls showing a narrow margin.
  - Finally, in Wisconsin, Democrat David Crowley holds a slight lead over Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany.

[2026-10-23] KTNA and Partners Release 2026 Alaska Voters Guide Ahead of November Election
KTNA 88.9 FM — https://ktna.org/2026-alaska-voters-guide/
  - KTNA 88.9 FM, in collaboration with KTOO, the Alaska Beacon, and the Anchorage Daily News, has released a 2026 Alaska Voters Guide for the November 3 general election, with early voting currently underway in most of the state.
  - The guide features fresh Q&As with candidates in the three statewide races: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and governor and lieutenant governor.
  - For state House and Senate races, the publication includes previously conducted primary Q&As, updated to reflect candidates who advanced or dropped out.
  - The project was supported by grant funding from the Alaska Center for Excellence in Journalism.

[2026-10-21] Cook Political Report Shifts Outlook on 2026 Midterm Governor Races
인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴 — https://www.hankyung.com/article/202610214521i
  - With the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, the Cook Political Report has adjusted its forecasts, moving Alaska from a 'toss up' to a 'lean Democratic' race, while downgrading Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Vermont from 'Republican solid' to 'likely Republican'.
  - Currently, Republicans hold 26 governorships and Democrats 24; the 36 governorships up for election are split 18-18.
  - If Democrats win two additional seats, they could secure a majority (26-24).
  - The article notes that while governorships do not directly impact federal legislation, they influence the implementation of President Trump's policies at the state level, particularly in Alaska where a Democratic governor could block pipeline projects.
  - In Alaska, incumbent Republican Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and the state's Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system favors the single Democratic candidate against three Republican contenders.
  - In Iowa, a 'best opportunity' for Democrats, incumbent Kim Reynolds is not running, and the Republican candidate Jack Ryan is distancing himself from President Trump, while the Democratic candidate Rob Sand has a history of close victories.
  - In Ohio, the race features former DOGE head Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican) against Democrat Amy Acton; although Ramaswamy is supported by Trump and Elon Musk, the Cook Political Report notes he has failed to overcome negative sentiment despite spending millions on ads.
  - In Nebraska, incumbent Jim Pillen is considered the least popular governor in the U.S., and a split in the conservative vote may benefit Democrat Lynne Wold.
  - In Oklahoma, incumbent Kevin Stitt is term-limited, and the Republican candidate Mike Mazey faces challenges due to a rift with President Trump, while the Democratic candidate Cindy Riddle Munsen campaigns on opposing tax cuts and appealing to working-class voters.

[2026-10-02] Kreiss-Tomkins Leads Fractured GOP Field in Alaska Gubernatorial Race
Alternet.org — https://www.alternet.org/alaska-gop-2677986070/
  - In the October 2, 2026, Alaska gubernatorial race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is positioned to potentially become the first Democratic governor of Alaska since Tony Knowles (1998-2002) due to a fractured Republican field.
  - In the August open primary, 37-year-old Kreiss-Tomkins secured 40% of first-preference votes, while Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor collectively obtained 41%.
  - Under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, Kreiss-Tomkins defeated the leading Republican, Wilson, by a 10-point margin.
  - Political observer Larry Persily, who previously owned the Wrangell Sentinel and edited the Anchorage Daily News, described the Republican candidates to The Guardian as 'a bunch of political losers.' Wilson has requested that Bronson and Taylor withdraw to unify the party, but neither has agreed; Bronson argues conservatives can win if they rank all GOP candidates.
  - The election occurs in a state President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024, where retiring Governor Mike Dunleavy is leaving office.
  - Key campaign issues include the state's Permanent Fund Dividend, with the 2026 payment set at $1,000 plus $200 for energy relief.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins has focused on grassroots outreach, traveling hundreds of miles by boat along the Yukon River to visit small villages, while prioritizing education and cost reduction.
  - Democrat Tom Begich had previously placed third in the primary before withdrawing to support Kreiss-Tomkins, allowing Taylor to advance to the final four.

[2026-09-23] Poll Shows Democrat Kreiss-Tomkins Leading Alaska Governor's Race by 10 Points
KTOO — https://www.ktoo.org/2026/09/23/poll-shows-democrat-with-lead-in-alaska-governors-race-but-large-swaths-remain-undecided/
  - In the Alaska governor's race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds a 10-point lead over Republican Bernadette Wilson according to an AARP-sponsored poll, which utilized ranked choice tabulation.
  - Published on September 23, 2026, the article notes that while Wilson has called on fellow Republicans Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor to drop out, both have declined, urging voters to rank Republicans to overcome the Democrat's lead.
  - Forecasters, including Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball and Nate Silver, have classified the race as a 'toss-up' or given Kreiss-Tomkins an 80-plus percent chance of winning.
  - The poll indicates Kreiss-Tomkins would secure 40% in the first round, potentially winning the final round by 10 percentage points if substantial swaths of Republican voters decline to rank Wilson.
  - However, pollsters Bob Ward and Matt Hogan highlight that 18% of voters remain undecided, a group that leans considerably to the right and favored President Donald Trump by more than 30 points.
  - This follows a similar 2022 dynamic where Democrat Mary Peltola won despite Republicans splitting the vote.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins' campaign expressed optimism, noting it would be the first time Democrats have taken the governor's mansion since Tony Knowles left office in 2002, a notable shift in a state that reelected Republican Gov.
  - Mike Dunleavy by a landslide in 2022 and voted for President Donald Trump by a 13-point margin two years prior.

[2026-09-12] Alaska Ranked-Choice Voting Failure: 60% Bullet Vote Rate Threatens Republican Victory in 2026 (opinion)
Redstate — https://redstate.com/wardclark/2026/09/12/ranked-choice-fail-in-2024-60-percent-of-alaska-voters-didnt-rank-choices-n2206843
  - A RedState opinion piece published on September 12, 2026, by an unnamed author analyzes the performance of Alaska's ranked-choice voting (RCV) system, citing a report by Alaska Public Media's Liz Ruskin.
  - The article states that 'bullet voting'—where voters select only one candidate without ranking others—rose from 40% in the 2022 election to 60% in the 2024 election, according to Division of Elections data analyzed with AI code and verified by researchers.
  - The author argues that this trend poses a 'recipe for disaster' for Republicans in the upcoming 2026 election cycle.
  - In the Senate and Governor's races, the author notes the presence of 'one Democrat and three Republicans,' while the House race features 'one Republican' (Nick Begich III) against a Democrat, a Libertarian, and a non-partisan candidate.
  - The article claims that if 'over half of Republicans' continue to bullet vote, it will guarantee a Democrat win in the second or third round of tally.
  - Consequently, the author urges Alaskan Republicans to 'rank every Republican candidate' to ensure the election of 'Senator Sullivan,' 'Nick Begich III,' and a 'Republican governor.' The piece also highlights Ballot Measure 2, which aims to eliminate RCV, noting that a previous repeal attempt failed by '700+ votes' despite the pro-RCV side outspending the pro-repeal side.
  - The article concludes with a call to action for voters to 'rank the red' and includes an editor's note stating that the 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of 'President Trump's America First agenda' and that Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

[2026-08-29] Alaska RCV Follies: Democrats Consolidate, Republicans Face Vote Split (opinion)
Redstate — https://redstate.com/wardclark/2026/08/29/the-alaska-rcv-follies-continue-now-only-one-dem-gubernatorial-candidate-remains-n2206228
  - In Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial race under the new Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system, Democrat Tom Begich withdrew on Friday to endorse fellow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, who led the primary with 22.5% of the vote compared to Begich's 20.8%.
  - This leaves only one Democrat on the November ballot, allowing Kreiss-Tomkins to consolidate support.
  - Conversely, Republican Dave Bronson, who had previously signed a pledge to withdraw if he did not win a primary majority, announced he is 'not backing down' and will remain in the race alongside businesswoman Bernadette Wilson.
  - The article claims this outcome, potentially leaving up to three Republicans on the ballot, was 'designed' by the RCV system, which the author argues was heavily supported by Democrats and Senator Lisa Murkowski.
  - The author urges Republicans to either consolidate behind Wilson or rank all Republican candidates to prevent a Democratic victory, noting candidates must withdraw by Monday, August 31st.
  - The article concludes with an editorial note stating the 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of 'President Trump's America First agenda.'.

[2026-08-28] Alaska Election Analysis: Governor's Race Split, Senate Decoy Controversy, and Ranked-Choice Voting Concerns (interview)
"I'm Glad You Said That" - Jim Minnery Talks Faith & Politics — https://www.buzzsprout.com/695410/episodes/19716904-suzanne-downing-and-what-just-happened-in-the-alaska-primary-election.mp3
  - In a podcast episode of 'I'm Glad You Said That' hosted by Jim Minnery, conservative journalist Suzanne Downing of The Alaska Story analyzes the 2026 Alaska primary and upcoming general election landscape.
  - Minnery highlights the Alaska Governor's race, where Democrat Chris Tompkins leads with 22.2% (34,215 votes), followed by Tom Begich at 20.5% (31,617 votes), Republican Bernadette Wilson at 10.2% (15,731 votes), and Republican Dave Bronson at 8.2% (12,598 votes).
  - Minnery criticizes ranked-choice voting as a mechanism that splits the conservative vote and could allow 'Republican in name only' candidates like Click Bishop to win if top vote-getters drop out.
  - Regarding the U.S. Senate race, Downing reports that Democrat Mary Peltola leads with 48% of the vote, while incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan trails at almost 43%.
  - Downing alleges that a 'decoy' candidate, Dan J.
  - Sullivan, filed initially with the same middle initial as the real senator to confuse voters, ultimately receiving 3,235 votes (almost 2.5%).
  - Downing claims the Department of Justice has opened an investigation into this confusion, describing it as 'fraud,' and notes that national Democrats, including Chuck Schumer, are targeting the seat.
  - Downing also identifies a Washington D.C. left-wing PAC distributing a fake newspaper called 'The Alaska Independent' to attack Republicans.
  - The discussion emphasizes the national stakes, including potential impeachment proceedings if Democrats control Congress, and the importance of conservative media outlets like The Alaska Story in providing a counter-narrative.

[2026-08-19] Alaska 2026 Gubernatorial Primary: Democrats and Republicans Advance to November Ballot
International Business Times Singapore — https://www.ibtimes.sg/alaska-governor-primary-results-2026-democrats-lead-crowded-field-four-advance-november-92458
  - In Alaska's Aug. 18, 2026, gubernatorial primary, Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich and Republicans Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson advanced to the Nov. 3 general election under the state's nonpartisan top-four system, with results based on 60.2% of precincts reporting.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins led with 24,632 votes (21.64%), followed by Begich with 22,252 votes (19.55%), Wilson with 12,392 votes (10.89%), and Bronson with 9,778 votes (8.59%), though these totals remain unofficial pending absentee ballot processing and certification on Aug. 31.
  - The open seat contest follows Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy's final term, and the general election will use ranked-choice voting.
  - Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative, raised over $2 million and campaigned on a moratorium on new data centers and economic reform, while Begich, a former state senator, focused on oil and gas revenue and education funding with over $1 million raised.
  - Wilson, a first-time candidate, advocated for larger Permanent Fund dividends and lower spending, and Bronson, a former Anchorage mayor, emphasized fishing industry protections and fiscal experience.
  - The race remains subject to change as additional ballots are counted, with several other candidates within a few percentage points of the fourth-place spot.

[2026-06-02] Seventeen Candidates Register for 2026 Alaska Governor Race
Juneau Independent — https://www.juneauindependent.com/post/seventeen-people-sign-up-to-run-in-2026-alaska-governor-race-top-four-advance-in-aug-18-primary
  - Seventeen people have registered as candidates for the Alaska governor race for the fall 2026 election, with the final slate to be determined by the June 27 withdrawal deadline.
  - The field includes 11 Republicans, three Democrats, and three independents, including former state Sen.
  - Lesil McGuire and former Gov.
  - Bill Walker, both running as independents.
  - Incumbent Gov.
  - Mike Dunleavy is term-limited.
  - On the last day of registration (5 p.m.
  - Monday), Lt.
  - Gov.
  - Nancy Dahlstrom, a Republican, dropped out after raising a small amount of money.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-25] No votes have been counted in the general election. It is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026, and 
uses ranked-choice voting
. Early voting is underway. Results are not yet available. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_gubernatorial_election
- [2026-10-25] The ballot has four tickets. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the only Democrat. Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor are the other three. Tom Begich (D) withdrew after finishing second in the primary and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins. Taylor, who finished fifth, replaced him on the ballot. https://www.britannica.com/question/Who-are-the-candidates-for-governor-of-Alaska
- [2026-08-18] Primary results (a different electorate from the general): Kreiss-Tomkins 22.5%, Begich 20.8%, Wilson 10.0%, Bronson 8.1%. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/alaska-governor-results
- [2026-10-20] Data for Progress poll (Oct 8–16, n=694 LV, ±4): first choices were Kreiss-Tomkins 46%, Wilson 28%, Bronson 12%, Taylor 9%. In the final round, Kreiss-Tomkins led Wilson 53–47. 
If every exhausted ballot from a voter who ranked a Republican went to Wilson, the race would be tied.
 https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-20] Alaska Survey Research poll (Oct 15–18, 1,568 LV, ±3): first choices were Kreiss-Tomkins 50%, Wilson 30%, Bronson 12%, Taylor 8%. The final round was reported as 54–46 by Political Wire and 55–45 by RealClearPolling. 270toWin's average of the three most recent polls is Kreiss-Tomkins 45.3%, Wilson 26.0%, Bronson 13.0%, Taylor 9.3%. https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/alaska
- [2026-10-04] Earlier polls had Kreiss-Tomkins leading first choices by 20 points or more. Siena (Sept 22–Oct 1) had 40/20/15/11. ASR (Oct 1–3) had 48/27/15/10. AARP (Sept) had 40/20/14/7. In every public poll listed, Kreiss-Tomkins leads first choices. https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/alaska
- [2026-10-13] Trump endorsed Wilson at a Wasilla rally and called Bronson and Taylor "lesser" candidates. Bronson and Taylor remain on the ballot. At the Oct 8 debate they said they would rank each other second. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-10-21] Cook Political Report moved Alaska from Toss Up to Lean Democratic. https://time.com/article/2026/10/21/governor-races-to-watch-in-the-midterms
- [2026-10-25] Kalshi shows Kreiss-Tomkins at 86% to win and Wilson at 13%. Its poll average is 52.5% to 44.3% in the final round. MultiState reported Polymarket at about 79% for Kreiss-Tomkins. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26
- [2026-10-23] Kreiss-Tomkins, Bronson and Taylor appeared together at the AFN forum. Wilson was not on the panel. Nothing there changes the race structure. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/gubernatorial-candidates-pitch-alaska-federation-211215377.html
- [2026-10-24] The Anchorage Daily News editorial board endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins. https://adn.com/opinions/editorials/2026/10/24/editorial-a-steady-hand-in-the-governors-office-for-an-unsteady-time
- [2026-10-27] Scheduled: Bronson appears on Alaska Public Media's "Talk of Alaska". 
Wilson cancelled an Oct 13 appearance to attend the Trump rally.
 https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-10-20/democrat-jonathan-kreiss-tomkins-pitches-himself-as-a-changemaker-in-alaska-governor-s-race

BOTTOM LINE: Kreiss-Tomkins has led first choices by 18–20 points in the latest polls, and the closest case is a Wilson upset after ranked-choice transfers. For the question to resolve Yes, the winner would have to trail in first choices. In practice that means Wilson overcoming a big first-round deficit by winning on transfers, which the polls do not currently show.

NOT FOUND: Official Division of Elections results (none exist yet). Any poll showing a Republican ahead in first choices. Any withdrawal by Bronson or Taylor after Oct 13. I could not read the full MultiState page (garbled), so its details come from search snippets.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-10-20] Data for Progress poll (Oct 8–16, n=694 likely voters, ±4) put first choices at Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 46%, Wilson (R) 28%, Bronson (R) 12% and Taylor (R) 9%. He led Wilson 53–47 in the final round. For YES, a Republican would have to overturn a gap of about 18 points in first choices. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-19] MultiState cites the NYT/Siena poll: Kreiss-Tomkins 40%, Wilson 20%, Bronson 15%, Taylor 11% in first choices. An Alaska Survey Research poll (Oct 1–3) had him beating Wilson 54–46 in the final round. The RealClearPolling average of two-way matchups is D +7.4. Cook and Sabato rate the race Lean D. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-09-23] An AARP poll had Kreiss-Tomkins at 40% and Wilson at 20%, with Bronson at 14% and Taylor at 7%. Cook moved the race to Toss-up at the time. About a quarter of GOP voters were not ranking anyone. Nate Silver's model gave him 80%+. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6096933-alaska-gov-race-cook-tossup/ and https://www.ktoo.org/2026/09/23/poll-shows-democrat-with-lead-in-alaska-governors-race-but-large-swaths-remain-undecided/
- [2026-10-25] Kalshi shows Kreiss-Tomkins at about 86% to win and Wilson at about 13%. Bronson is at about 0.2% and Taylor is not a factor. Around Oct 20, Kalshi and Gemini had him at about 82%. The Polymarket US quote in that aggregator looked stale or illiquid, and the MultiState page cites Polymarket at about 79%. A winner who trailed in first choices would be a different event from a Kreiss-Tomkins win. That would require Wilson (or another Republican) to win while behind. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26 and https://defirate.com/odds/governor/
- [2026-08-18] In the primary, Kreiss-Tomkins finished first with 22.5% and Begich second with 20.8%. Begich then withdrew and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins. Wilson, Bronson and Taylor finished third to fifth. That consolidated the Democratic vote behind one ticket. https://fairvote.org/what-to-expect-in-alaskas-2026-ranked-choice-voting-elections/
- [2026-10-13] Trump endorsed Wilson on Oct 13 and called Bronson and Taylor "lesser" candidates. Bronson and Taylor remain on the ballot. At the Oct 8 debate they said they would rank each other second and Wilson third. This is the main route by which Republican first-choice votes could consolidate, but it would have to cover a gap of about 18–20 points. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [Historical base rate] Alaska has held 3 RCV general elections with a 4+ way or 3-way field and a single Democrat: the 2022 special House election, the 2022 regular House election and the 2022 governor race, which was not decided by RCV rounds. In all of them the first-round leader won. In the Aug 2022 special election, Peltola led the first round with 39.7% (Palin 30.9%, Begich 27.8%) and won 51.5–48.5. In Nov 2022 she led with 48.8% and won in round 3 with 54.96%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska_elections and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election
- [2022-11-08] In the 2022 governor race (RCV era), Dunleavy led with 50.29% in the first round and won. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska_gubernatorial_election
- [2022 / 2026] Alaska's 2022 RCV results featured a Condorcet failure (Begich eliminated first), but that did not affect the first-round leader's win. Researchers note a "no-show paradox" in the 2022 special election. https://arxiv.org/html/2303.00108v2
- [Broader RCV base rate, from general knowledge, not checked against a source in this session] US RCV elections are almost always won by the first-round leader. Comebacks are rare (roughly 1–3% of single-winner RCV contests with no first-round majority). Examples include Alaska's 2022 contests, where the leader won every time. I did not verify the exact percentage.
- [2026-10-23] Kreiss-Tomkins is the only Democrat on the ballot, and Ballot Measure 2 (repeal of RCV and top-four) is also on the ballot, but it would not change the 2026 rules. Cook (Oct 21) moved Alaska to Lean Democratic. Decision Desk HQ and other trackers show Democrats ahead in the Alaska governor race. https://www.hankyung.com/article/202610214521i
- [2026-10-24] Early voting is underway ahead of the Nov 3 election. The Oct 23 AFN forum showed no sign of a Republican consolidation. https://ktna.org/2026-alaska-voters-guide/

BOTTOM LINE: Every public poll shows Kreiss-Tomkins leading first choices by about 18–25 points over the top Republican (Wilson). Past Alaska RCV contests have all been won by the first-round leader, and Kalshi prices about an 86% chance that he wins. YES requires either a large polling miss that puts Wilson ahead in first choices while Kreiss-Tomkins wins, or a Republican winning after trailing in first choices. Both are tail events.

NOT FOUND: Official results (the election has not happened). Any poll showing a Republican leading first choices. A sourced statistic on how often an RCV winner trailed in the first round. A Polymarket page with current prices for the Alaska governor race.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-05] **Timing: the question likely cannot resolve on official results by Nov 10.** First-choice results are reported from election night, Nov 3. The ranked-choice tabulation, which names the winner if no one passes 50%, is scheduled for Nov 18. Certification is targeted for Nov 25. The governor is sworn in Dec 7. The Division's media packet confirms that counts run to day 15 and that only first-choice reports are published until Nov 18. A "winner" under official results is therefore probably not known by Nov 10 unless Kreiss-Tomkins (KT) gets more than 50% of first choices. Other drivers below assume the question is resolved later or from partial data. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-10-05/what-to-know-about-alaskas-general-election and https://www.elections.alaska.gov/doc/mp/2026/MediaPacket-2026-General.%20V3.pdf
- [2026-10-22] **Driver 1, the size of the first-round gap, is controlled by voters.** Early-vote data from the Division of Elections shows Republicans at 27.1% of early votes cast Oct 19–21 and Democrats at 18.5%. This is a party-registration split, not vote choice. Registered Republicans voting early more than Democrats is the only hard turnout signal. Independents are about 57% of registered voters (KTOO, Oct 20), so the gap could narrow or widen on them. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/10/22/thousands-of-alaskans-are-voting-before-election-day-some-ballots-wont-be-counted-until-after-it/ and https://www.ktoo.org/2026/10/20/conservatives-worry-trumps-alaska-visit-may-have-done-more-harm-than-good/
- [2026-10-20] **Driver 2, GOP consolidation (Bronson/Taylor), is controlled by the candidates, and it has stalled.** Taylor said after Trump's endorsement that the easiest conservative win is for all to stay in and rank. Both are staying in. Dropping out would not remove names from the ballot (ADN, Sept 18), and the Oct 13 ballot-drop-out deadline logic means withdrawal now only affects endorsements. Even full consolidation of Bronson and Taylor's 17–21% onto Wilson would put her at about 45–49% against KT's 46–50% in the polls. For the question to resolve Yes, nearly all of that, plus a polling miss, would have to happen. https://www.ktoo.org/2026/10/20/republican-treg-taylor-refuses-trumps-call-to-exit-alaska-governors-race/ and https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/09/18/wilson-again-calls-on-her-republican-opponents-to-drop-out-of-alaska-governors-race/
- [2026-10-20] **Driver 3, Trump's mixed message, is controlled by Trump.** At the Oct 13 rally he told Wilson "lots of luck" on ranked-choice voting, which he called a "phony rigged deal." Gov. Dunleavy from the same stage asked the crowd to rank all three Republicans. Talk-radio hosts warn this pushes bullet-voting for Wilson. Bullet-voting helps Wilson's first-round share. It also raises ballot exhaustion, which hurts her in the final round. That is the one mechanism where Wilson is stronger on first choices but still loses. It makes a "Wilson leads first round but loses" outcome more likely than a "winner trails first round" outcome. It makes the Yes scenario less likely. https://www.ktoo.org/2026/10/20/conservatives-worry-trumps-alaska-visit-may-have-done-more-harm-than-good/
- [2026-10-01] **Pollster comparison on Driver 1.** Cygnal (R-leaning) had Wilson winning 46% of Republicans, against 16% for Bronson and 13% for Taylor. It showed 15% undecided, "right-leaning," and a 3-point total gap. The Oct 20 ASR and DFP polls had undecideds near zero, with KT at 46–50%. Allocating Cygnal's undecideds heavily to Republicans would still leave KT about 3–10 points ahead on first choices. https://thealaskastory.com/poll-bernadette-wilson-surges-among-alaska-republicans-kreiss-tomkins-holds-a-narrow-edge-in-governors-race/
- [2026-10-16] **Sequence needed for Yes.** (a) First-choice shares must flip so a Republican leads KT. No poll shows this, and the nearest margin is Cygnal's roughly 20-point gap to Wilson, with KT 44%. Wilson would need Bronson and Taylor voters (about 17–21 points) and undecideds. (b) The winner must then be someone who trailed in round 1. If KT leads and wins, the answer is No. The only Yes routes are (i) Wilson leads and KT wins on transfers, or (ii) KT leads and a Republican overtakes him on transfers, the Peltola-in-2022 pattern. Route (ii) requires a final-round gap of about 6–8 points to close. Neither is shown in current polls. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-20] **Driver 4, ballot exhaustion and rank-all-three behavior, is controlled by Republican voters.** DFP's note about exhausted ballots: if every exhausted ballot from a Republican-ranking voter went to Wilson, the race would tie. This is the key swing in the final round. It does not change who leads in round 1. Wilson's own camp says GOP voters won't rank more than one (ADN, Sept 18). https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/09/18/wilson-again-calls-on-her-republican-opponents-to-drop-out-of-alaska-governors-race/
- [2026-10-23] **Driver 5, ballot and legal risk, is controlled by the courts and the Division.** A judge ruled the Lt. Gov. wrongly kept a disqualified candidate on a state House ballot (HD 22). That affects only that race. Nothing in it touches the governor's race, and no governor-ticket disqualification was found. The governor ballot has four tickets, plus registered write-in James Parkin, whom MultiState lists. A write-in could be tabulated, but its effect would be trivial. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/10/22/alaska-lt-gov-incorrectly-put-disqualified-candidate-on-the-ballot-state-judge-rules/ and https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-10-20] **Poll-error room.** Alaska Survey Research (Ivan Moore) put Trump net approval at −21. Alaska polls missed in 2022 by modest amounts. A shift of 8–10 points in KT's first-round lead would have to come from late-deciding Republican-leaning voters. https://www.ktoo.org/2026/10/20/conservatives-worry-trumps-alaska-visit-may-have-done-more-harm-than-good/
- [2026-10-05] **Mechanics.** The Division counts early, election-day and some absentee ballots from Nov 3. Overseas ballots can arrive up to day 15 (Nov 18). First-choice totals shift late. Late absentee ballots in Alaska have not been shown to be strongly partisan in either direction. A narrow first-round lead on election night could still change before Nov 18. https://www.elections.alaska.gov/doc/mp/2026/MediaPacket-2026-General.%20V3.pdf

BOTTOM LINE: Yes requires either Wilson to overtake KT's roughly 16–24-point first-choice lead (that gap is about 6–8 points in final-round simulations) or a Republican to win on transfers after trailing. No poll shows either, Bronson and Taylor are staying in, and the Nov 18 tabulation date means any official winner is probably not known by Nov 10.

NOT FOUND: Any poll after Oct 20; any official Division results (none yet); any evidence on late-absentee partisan lean; any prediction-market price specific to "winner trails in round 1."

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-10-25] Kalshi's "Alaska Governor winner" market priced Kreiss-Tomkins (D) at 86%, Wilson (R) at 13% and Bronson at 0.2%. Kalshi also lists a market on Kreiss-Tomkins's first-round vote percent, but I could not see its prices. Kalshi's party market had Democrats at 86% and a "D +6.6" margin forecast. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26
- [2026-10-20] The odds aggregator defirate showed Kalshi at 82% for Kreiss-Tomkins and Gemini at 82–85%. It showed a "Polymarket US" venue at only 37%, with Wilson at 42% and Bronson at 23%. That venue had $0 volume, so it looks like an illiquid outlier. https://defirate.com/odds/governor/
- [2026-10-19] MultiState rates the race "Tilt D", which is the average of Cook, Sabato and Pluribus. It cites Polymarket at about 79% for Kreiss-Tomkins and about 22% for Wilson (those figures sum to more than 100%). It reports a RealClearPolling two-way average of Kreiss-Tomkins 53.7, Wilson 46.3. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-10-20] Data for Progress (D-aligned; fielded Oct 8–16, n=694, ±4) had first choices as Kreiss-Tomkins 46%, Wilson 28%, Bronson 12%, Taylor 9%. It had the final round at 53–47. DFP says its 2024 Alaska polls were within 2.5 points on the Trump and Begich margins. DFP notes that if every exhausted Republican-ranking ballot went to Wilson, the race would be tied. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-04] The NYT/Siena poll had first choices as Kreiss-Tomkins 40, Wilson 20, Bronson 15, Taylor 11. Alaska Survey Research (Oct 1–3) had the final round at 54–46 for Kreiss-Tomkins. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-09-18] The AARP poll (FabrizioWard/Impact Research, Sept 8–11, n=800, ±3.5) had first choices as Kreiss-Tomkins 40, Wilson 20, Bronson 14, Taylor 7, with 18% undecided. The RCV simulation was 55–45 for Kreiss-Tomkins. https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/alaska-governor/alaska-governor-moves-lean-republican-toss
- [2026-10-01] Cygnal (Sept 24–27, n=502) had Kreiss-Tomkins 44, Wilson 24, Taylor 9, Bronson 8, with 15% undecided. The three Republicans combined were at 41%. This is the closest poll, but even it has Wilson 20 points behind in the first round. https://thealaskastory.com/poll-bernadette-wilson-surges-among-alaska-republicans-kreiss-tomkins-holds-a-narrow-edge-in-governors-race/
- [2026-10-13] Trump endorsed Wilson at a Wasilla rally and called Bronson and Taylor "lesser" candidates. Both remain on the ballot. Bronson and Taylor said they would rank each other second and Wilson third. Wilson is the main Republican threat to overtake the Democrat on first choices, since Republican consolidation is the only route to that. https://www.multistate.us/elections/governor-race/alaska-2026
- [2026-10-21] Cook moved the race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic. Cook's stated risk is that Republican voters rank only one GOP candidate, which helps Kreiss-Tomkins reach a majority. Sabato also rates it Lean D. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6145770-cook-political-report-shifts-four-democrats/
- [2026-10-23] Decision Desk HQ's forecast gave Kreiss-Tomkins a 62% win probability. That is well below the markets. Cook has the race at Lean D. https://thehill.com/newsletters/on-the-ballot/6164268-the-5-governors-mansions-most-likely-to-flip-in-november
- [2026-09-23] Nate Silver's model gave Kreiss-Tomkins 80%+ as of late September. Kondik of Sabato compared the setup to Peltola in 2022. Peltola led the first round that year and went on to lose the RCV tally. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-09-22/poll-shows-democrat-with-lead-in-alaska-governors-race-but-large-swaths-remain-undecided
- [2026-08] In the primary, Kreiss-Tomkins finished first with 22.5%. Begich was second with 20.8%, then withdrew and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins. https://fairvote.org/what-to-expect-in-alaskas-2026-ranked-choice-voting-elections/
- [2026-10-20] Ballot Measure 2 (repeal of RCV and the open primary) was tied at 48–48 in the DFP poll. It would not change this election's rules. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food

BOTTOM LINE: Every public poll has Kreiss-Tomkins leading the first round by 16–24 points, and he also leads every final-round simulation. Wilson, the best-placed Republican, is at 20–28%. "Yes" would require a Republican consolidation large enough to win first choices (the pattern Peltola faced in 2022) while the Democrat still wins after transfers. That is a scenario no poll shows, and the markets price a Kreiss-Tomkins win at about 80–88%, against DDHQ's 62%. A Wilson win would almost certainly come with a first-round lead for her, which would make the question "No".

NOT FOUND: Kalshi's or Polymarket's price for the specific first-round vote-share or "winner not first-round leader" market. I also found no Metaculus or Manifold market on this question, and no poll showing a Republican leading the first round.

### YES CASE
YES means: The certified Alaska governor winner had fewer first-choice votes than at least one other candidate. That is, the winner trailed in round 1 and won through ranked-choice transfers.

- [2026-10-24] NBC Decision Desk (via search snippet; the page fetch was refused) reports 31,138 mail-in and early in-person ballots cast, about 5% of 604K registered voters. Early in-person voting is running at over 1.5 times the 2022 pace. Higher turnout in a year when polls show a Democratic first-choice lead adds no evidence for a Republican first-round lead. It does add uncertainty to likely-voter models. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/alaska-results
- [2026-10-20] Alaska Public Media: about 7,000 people voted early by Tuesday morning, against roughly 267,000 total votes in the 2022 midterm. About 97% of the electorate has not yet voted. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-10-20/worth-the-wait-alaskans-line-up-to-vote-early
- [2026-09-06] Alaska Story, fetched. Across about 112 Alaska RCV contests in 2022–24, only 3 produced a winner who was not leading after first choices. All three were state House races in Nov 2022. In House District 15, Democrat Wells led the first count with 3,379 votes, and Republican McKay (2,812) won after the Republican Eibeck (1,026) was eliminated. That is the closest structural analogue: a split-right field and a trailing winner. No statewide race has done it. https://thealaskastory.com/rank-the-red-is-a-slogan-but-not-a-strategy-alaskas-election-history-proves-it/
- [2026-09-06] Same article: of the roughly 22 Alaska races that needed extra tabulation, about 14% produced a reversal. The 2018 Maine CD2 race (Golden trailed 45.6 to 46.3, then won 50.6–49.4) shows a trailing candidate winning on transfers by about 0.7 points. In that race the first-round gap was under 1 point. https://thealaskastory.com/rank-the-red-is-a-slogan-but-not-a-strategy-alaskas-election-history-proves-it/
- [2022-09 FairVote] Historically about 4% of RCV elections had a come-from-behind winner. The largest comeback margin recorded then was 10 points of first-round deficit. The current polling gap of 16–24 points would far exceed that record. https://fairvote.org/alaska_rcv_analysis/
- [2026-10-23] The strongest YES path is a Republican win after trailing. Wilson would need to trail Kreiss-Tomkins in first choices (the Data for Progress 46–28 figure) and then gain from Bronson and Taylor transfers. DFP's own tied-race scenario needs every exhausted Republican-ranking ballot to reach Wilson. That would require about 18 points of net transfer gain, which exceeds the largest comeback margin on record. The alternative path is a Kreiss-Tomkins win after a Wilson first-round lead. Every poll runs the other way. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food
- [2026-10-09] Debate: Wilson declined to say whom she would rank. Bronson and Taylor each said they would rank the other second and urged Republicans to rank "one, two, three". Wilson accepted rank-all-three only "in the absence of" a dropout. This is a mixed Republican message. It is the mechanism that could raise transfers to Wilson, but only if Wilson is ranked on the ballots of the Bronson and Taylor voters. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/10/09/live-alaskas-gubernatorial-candidates-clash-debate-state/
- [2026-10-10] ADN: Dunleavy and GOP chair Warfield convened a post-primary meeting of the three Republicans to broker consolidation, and it failed. Party leaders settled on a "Rank 1 2 3" message. The party has now put its weight behind ranking all three, which is the only structural route to YES. https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/10/10/failed-as-a-party-bronson-criticizes-wilson-and-gop-leaders-as-republicans-jostle-over-strategy-in-alaska-governors-race/
- [2026-10-23] Alaska Story: the Wilson campaign's strongest evidence is Cygnal (Sept 24–27), in which Wilson doubled her primary support and is the only Republican with a realistic path. Cygnal had the three Republicans combined at 41% against 44% for Kreiss-Tomkins, with 15% undecided. If most undecideds break to Republicans, the gap narrows to a few points. That narrows the gap but still leaves Wilson trailing in first choices unless the Republican total also consolidates behind her. https://thealaskastory.com/poll-bernadette-wilson-surges-among-alaska-republicans-kreiss-tomkins-holds-a-narrow-edge-in-governors-race/
- [2024-11] Precedent for polling misses: Peltola led the 2024 House primary with a majority, then trailed Begich in the first round, 46.4 to 48.6. Wrangell Sentinel and Reason both note this. The Alaska electorate moved to the right between primary and general polling. That is the type of shift a Wilson first-round lead would need, at a much larger scale. https://reason.com/2024/11/21/alaska-keeps-ranked-choice-voting-by-razor-thin-margin/
- [2026-10-19] Counting caveat: the Division of Elections reports only first-choice totals during the 15-day count and runs the RCV tally on Nov 18, after the Nov 10 resolution date. "Official results" for the question may be unavailable by resolution unless a first-round majority exists. A close first-round count could leave the question unresolved or dependent on unofficial totals. This is a resolution-timing risk, not a path to YES. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/19/alaska-buzzkill-vote-counting-could-leave-senate-race-undecided-weeks/

BOTTOM LINE: The most plausible YES path is a Wilson win on transfers after trailing Kreiss-Tomkins in round 1. It needs a record comeback margin of well over 10 points, and no poll shows it. The only statewide-race analogues are Maine 2018 and three Alaska House races from 2022, all with first-round gaps of a few points or less.

NOT FOUND: Any poll showing a Republican ahead in first choices. A statewide RCV comeback larger than 10 points. Official Division of Elections results. A fetchable NBC page (access denied).

### NO CASE
YES means: the person who ends up winning Alaska's 2026 governor race had fewer first-choice votes than another candidate in the official first round. In practice that is a come-from-behind winner after ranked-choice (RCV) transfers.

- [2026-10-22] Early-voting data cut against Republican consolidation. The Alaska Story's first early-vote snapshot shows Democratic-leaning voters leading the opening early vote, with overall participation trailing 2022. I saw this only as a headline and teaser on a fetched page, not the full article. https://thealaskastory.com/democratic-leaning-voters-lead-alaskas-opening-early-vote-as-overall-participation-trails-2022/

- [2026-10-05] The Division of Elections timeline limits how Yes could be settled. First-choice results come out on election night, Nov 3, from about 8:45–9 p.m. Alaska Public Media's explainer says RCV tabulation is not run until Nov 18, and certification is targeted for Nov 25. The Division's media packet confirms that election-night reports show only first choices. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-10-05/what-to-know-about-alaskas-general-election
  - The Nov 10 resolution date falls before the RCV tabulation.
  - If Kreiss-Tomkins (the Democrat, "KT") tops the first round, as every poll shows, and nobody has a majority, a Nov 10 resolver could not yet name the RCV winner. A Yes would then require a later Wilson win, for example the Nov 18 tabulation.
  - If KT has more than 50% of first choices, the winner is known on election night and the answer is No.

- [2026-10-07] I read the Alaska Story's tally of the first-round margin Wilson would need. One scenario has her at about 38% of first choices if KT gets 44%. She would still be 6 points behind and would need a large transfer edge to win. I read it as treating a win from behind as a separate hard task, not a baseline outcome. None of the published RCV simulations shows Wilson winning the final round. https://thealaskastory.com/alaska-pollster-reveals-that-bernadette-wilson-has-led-republicans-in-all-15-of-his-polls/

- [2026-10-07] Transfers may not favor Wilson even in a Republican-leaning race. The same article reports that about a quarter of AARP respondents ranked neither finalist, and that group leaned Trump in 2024. Those ballots exhaust, which shrinks the transfer pool that a trailing Republican would need. Bronson (about $6k cash) and Taylor (about $30k) have little money to run a ranking campaign. https://thealaskastory.com/alaska-pollster-reveals-that-bernadette-wilson-has-led-republicans-in-all-15-of-his-polls/

- [2026-10-10] There is no GOP consolidation mechanism. The ADN reports that a post-primary meeting convened by Dunleavy and the party chair failed to broker a deal. Participants dropped the "rank the red" slogan for "Rank 1 2 3 or get JKT". Neither Dunleavy nor the Alaska GOP central committee has endorsed anyone. https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/10/10/failed-as-a-party-bronson-criticizes-wilson-and-gop-leaders-as-republicans-jostle-over-strategy-in-alaska-governors-race/
  - Fragmentation keeps Wilson's first-round share capped, which makes a first-round deficit for the winner less likely.

- [2026-08-18] The primary showed KT's organizational strength. He beat every public poll and moved from behind to first place, finishing with 36,961 votes (22.52%). His strength is get-out-the-vote and fundraising, which suggests his first-round poll lead is not soft. Poll error would have to run in the Republicans' favor by about 18–20 points. https://thealaskastory.com/polls-got-alaska-governor-finalists-right-but-missed-jkts-stealth-late-rise-to-first-place/

- [2024-11] The most recent Alaska RCV race with a winner from behind was the opposite structure. In the 2024 US House race, Begich led the first round (48.41% to Peltola's 46.37%) and won in round 3. In 2022 the first-round leader won every Alaska RCV contest: Peltola 48.7%, Murkowski 43.37%, and Dunleavy outright. I found no Alaska RCV general where the winner trailed in first choices. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Alaska_elections and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska_elections

- [2026-10-23] Several of the polls in the colleagues' reports have KT at about 40–50% in first choices. Two of the colleagues' polls (Data for Progress and Alaska Survey Research) put him at 46–50%. A first-round majority above 50% would end the question immediately. The Division's rule is that more than 50% of first choices wins outright. Kalshi also lists a separate market on KT's first-round vote percent. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovak/alaska-governor/kxgovak-26

- [2026-10-20] Even the poll most favorable to Republicans, Data for Progress, does not reverse the first-round order. Its tied scenario assumed every exhausted ballot from a voter who ranked a Republican went to Wilson. That scenario produces a tie in the final round, not a first-round Wilson lead. KT stays ahead in first choices in that scenario. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food

BOTTOM LINE: For Yes, a Republican would have to win after trailing KT by a double-digit first-round gap, or polls would have to miss by about 20 points. The polls, the primary and Alaska RCV history all point the other way, and a KT first-round lead with KT winning resolves No. The Nov 3 first-choice count versus the Nov 18 RCV tabulation also leaves the question unresolved by Nov 10 only in the unusual case where KT leads but falls short of a majority.

NOT FOUND: Any Alaska or US precedent in my sources where an RCV winner trailed in first choices in a comparable race. Any poll showing a Republican ahead on first choices. Kalshi's price for the first-round vote-share market. The full text of the Oct 22 Alaska Beacon early-voting article (fetch failed).

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources above show the resolving condition ALREADY met (or already impossible) as of today? If so, say which source and price it at the cap. Otherwise, name what would still have to happen and by when (the RESOLUTION date).
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.

## Calibration guidance

- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market, treat its price as a strong, well-calibrated prior and name the specific evidence the market lacks whenever you land more than ~15 percentage points from it. A RELATED market (different deadline, threshold or resolution) is context only — do not anchor on it. If no market is listed, there is none on this question; do not assume one.
- **Anchor on the resolution source.** If the evidence includes a RESOLUTION SOURCE block, the question resolves on what THAT page shows, not on what the world does. If it says the resolving condition is already met, the correct probability is at the cap (0.97-0.98); if definitively unmet with no path left, 0.02-0.03. Otherwise its current state is your status quo, and the gap between the source and reality (lagging updates, different metric, classification rules) is a first-class risk to price explicitly, not a footnote at 5%.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, list it in unverified_claims (it will be checked) and keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (0) (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
  "p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
  "what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>",
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would move p_yes by 10+ points if false; [] if none>"]
}