Anchor on historical FTS coverage trajectories for the 2024 and 2025 OPT appeals at the same point in the calendar year, adjust for the 2026 donor environment (sq4) and any ceasefire/reconstruction funding surge, then convert the threshold probabilities (sq1-sq3) into a percentile distribution centered near the weighted base-rate estimate.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.67, Volume: $7.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $6.6M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.1M - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $2.7M - "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $323.4K - "Fed rate hike in 2026?" → Yes: 0.55, Volume: $7.3M - "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" → Yes: 0.20, Volume: $7.0M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2026 OPT Flash Appeal (plan 1510) seeks US$4.06 billion for 3 million people, launched December 2025. 2. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No current FTS-reported funded percentage for plan 1510 was retrievable in search results; the dashboard is dynamic and not indexed. 3. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | DATED] As of August 2025, less than 17% of the $46 billion global 2025 humanitarian requirement had been received, a 40% drop versus the same point in 2024. 4. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | DATED] OCHA reported 2025 global appeal funding of $12 billion — the lowest in a decade — with 25 million fewer people reached than in 2024. 5. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The GHO 2026 sets a reduced, prioritized target of US$23 billion for 87 million people, versus $46 billion sought in 2025. 6. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Washington Post (June 1, 2026) reported Trump's Gaza Board of Peace is stalled and expected donations to its reconstruction fund are 'nonexistent.' 7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Trump announced on July 31, 2026 a 'historic' agreement for complete disarmament of Hamas, though Hamas and Israel reactions suggest implementation is uncertain. 8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] As of mid-2026 the Gaza ceasefire remains largely unfulfilled: Israel occupies ~60% of the enclave, 900+ Palestinians killed since October 2025 ceasefire, reconstruction not started. 9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | RECENT] Escalating West Bank settler violence, demolitions and displacement documented through mid-2026 sustain high visible humanitarian need in OPT. 10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] US dismantling of USAID and global health cuts continued to hamper humanitarian response in 2026, per aid workers cited in May 2026 reporting. 11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A separate UNRWA 2026 OPT Flash Appeal seeks $1.26 billion, potentially competing for the same donor pool as the OCHA-coordinated $4.06 billion plan. 12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Own Monte Carlo over coverage scenarios yields median ~30%, P(≥20%)=0.81, P(≥35%)=0.37, P(≥50%)=0.10 — model assumptions, not empirical data. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.67, Volume: $7.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $6.6M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.1M - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $2.7M - "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $323.4K - "Fed rate hike in 2026?" → Yes: 0.55, Volume: $7.3M - "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" → Yes: 0.20, Volume: $7.0M Information gaps: - No FTS coverage figure for OPT 2024/2025 appeals at early September (critical missing base rate) - No current (Aug 2026) reading of plan 1510 funded percentage or dollar total - Whether $4.06bn requirement has been revised down mid-year (raises % funded mechanically) - Gulf/EU pledge data for Gaza humanitarian response in 2026 Key uncertainties: - Whether ceasefire/disarmament progress triggers a late-2026 donor surge - Whether FTS counts reconstruction/Board of Peace money toward plan 1510 - Scale of US contribution to OPT humanitarian appeal in 2026 - Possible mid-year requirement revision changing the denominator
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What percentage of the total requirements of the 2026 Escalation of Hostilities in the Occupied Palestinian Territory Flash Appeal 2026 will be funded on September 2, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to [Reliefweb](https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/flash-appeal-occupied-palestinian-territory-2026-issued-december-2025) in December 2025: "The 2026 Flash Appeal seeks to mobilize US$4.06 billion to deliver urgent, life-saving support to 3 million people in need of humanitarian assistance across the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT). Under the current conditions, humanitarian partners will prioritize the most vulnerable, ensuring a coordinated and principled response to address critical needs in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip.
"The magnitude and severity of death, destruction and extreme deprivation in the Gaza Strip have generated profound human suffering and humanitarian needs. In the West Bank, demolitions, operations by Israeli forces, settler violence, and movement restrictions continue to trigger displacement and drive a range of humanitarian needs."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "c505906316890317", "sheet_id": "163"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the percentage of the "total requirements of plan" funded for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) [Escalation of Hostilities in the OPT Flash Appeal 2026](https://fts.unocha.org/plans/1510/summary), as displayed when the page is checked by Metaculus on or after September 2, 2026.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [37.550000000000004, 57.05] (units: %).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will the FTS page for the 2026 OPT Flash Appeal (plan 1510) show at least 20% of total requirements funded when checked on/after September 2, 2026? — Sets the low-end floor; even in the worst recent funding environment (2025, post-US aid cuts), OPT appeals cleared rough
- (w=0.30) Will the 2026 OPT Flash Appeal show at least 35% funded on/after September 2, 2026? — 35% approximates the typical 8-month progress of large, high-profile OPT appeals; it is the central pivot of the distrib
- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 OPT Flash Appeal show at least 50% funded on/after September 2, 2026? — Tests the upside scenario in which a ceasefire/reconstruction push plus Gulf and EU pledges drive unusually fast disburs
- (w=0.20) Will the overall global humanitarian funding environment in 2026 (aggregate GHO coverage, major donor budgets including US/EU/Gulf) be at least as favorable as 2025 at the same point in the year? — Donor-environment momentum is the dominant common driver: 2025 saw historic cuts; whether 2026 stabilizes or deteriorate
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2026 OPT Flash Appeal (plan 1510) seeks US$4.06 billion for 3 million people, launched December 2025.
2. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No current FTS-reported funded percentage for plan 1510 was retrievable in search results; the dashboard is dynamic and not indexed.
3. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | DATED] As of August 2025, less than 17% of the $46 billion global 2025 humanitarian requirement had been received, a 40% drop versus the same point in 2024.
4. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | DATED] OCHA reported 2025 global appeal funding of $12 billion — the lowest in a decade — with 25 million fewer people reached than in 2024.
5. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The GHO 2026 sets a reduced, prioritized target of US$23 billion for 87 million people, versus $46 billion sought in 2025.
6. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Washington Post (June 1, 2026) reported Trump's Gaza Board of Peace is stalled and expected donations to its reconstruction fund are 'nonexistent.'
7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Trump announced on July 31, 2026 a 'historic' agreement for complete disarmament of Hamas, though Hamas and Israel reactions suggest implementation is uncertain.
8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] As of mid-2026 the Gaza ceasefire remains largely unfulfilled: Israel occupies ~60% of the enclave, 900+ Palestinians killed since October 2025 ceasefire, reconstruction not started.
9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | RECENT] Escalating West Bank settler violence, demolitions and displacement documented through mid-2026 sustain high visible humanitarian need in OPT.
10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] US dismantling of USAID and global health cuts continued to hamper humanitarian response in 2026, per aid workers cited in May 2026 reporting.
11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A separate UNRWA 2026 OPT Flash Appeal seeks $1.26 billion, potentially competing for the same donor pool as the OCHA-coordinated $4.06 billion plan.
12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Own Monte Carlo over coverage scenarios yields median ~30%, P(≥20%)=0.81, P(≥35%)=0.37, P(≥50%)=0.10 — model assumptions, not empirical data.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.0M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.67, Volume: $7.0M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $6.6M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.1M
- "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $2.7M
- "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $323.4K
- "Fed rate hike in 2026?" → Yes: 0.55, Volume: $7.3M
- "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" → Yes: 0.20, Volume: $7.0M
Information gaps:
- No FTS coverage figure for OPT 2024/2025 appeals at early September (critical missing base rate)
- No current (Aug 2026) reading of plan 1510 funded percentage or dollar total
- Whether $4.06bn requirement has been revised down mid-year (raises % funded mechanically)
- Gulf/EU pledge data for Gaza humanitarian response in 2026
Key uncertainties:
- Whether ceasefire/disarmament progress triggers a late-2026 donor surge
- Whether FTS counts reconstruction/Board of Peace money toward plan 1510
- Scale of US contribution to OPT humanitarian appeal in 2026
- Possible mid-year requirement revision changing the denominator
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2026 OPT Flash Appeal (plan 1510) seeks US$4.06 billion for 3 million people, launched December 2025.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No current FTS-reported funded percentage for plan 1510 was retrievable in search results; the dashboard is dynamic and not indexed.\n3. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | DATED] As of August 2025, less than 17% of the $46 billion global 2025 humanitarian requirement had been received, a 40% drop versus the same point in 2024.\n4. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | DATED] OCHA reported 2025 global appeal funding of $12 billion \u2014 the lowest in a decade \u2014 with 25 million fewer people reached than in 2024.\n5. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The GHO 2026 sets a reduced, prioritized target of US$23 billion for 87 million people, versus $46 billion sought in 2025.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Washington Post (June 1, 2026) reported Trump\u0027s Gaza Board of Peace is stalled and expected donations to its reconstruction fund are \u0027nonexistent.\u0027\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Trump announced on July 31, 2026 a \u0027historic\u0027 agreement for complete disarmament of Hamas, though Hamas and Israel reactions suggest implementation is uncertain.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] As of mid-2026 the Gaza ceasefire remains largely unfulfilled: Israel occupies ~60% of the enclave, 900+ Palestinians killed since October 2025 ceasefire, reconstruction not started.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | RECENT] Escalating West Bank settler violence, demolitions and displacement documented through mid-2026 sustain high visible humanitarian need in OPT.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] US dismantling of USAID and global health cuts continued to hamper humanitarian response in 2026, per aid workers cited in May 2026 reporting.\n11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A separate UNRWA 2026 OPT Flash Appeal seeks $1.26 billion, potentially competing for the same donor pool as the OCHA-coordinated $4.06 billion plan.\n12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Own Monte Carlo over coverage scenarios yields median ~30%, P(\u226520%)=0.81, P(\u226535%)=0.37, P(\u226550%)=0.10 \u2014 model assumptions, not empirical data.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.67, Volume: $7.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $6.6M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.1M\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $2.7M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $323.4K\n- \"Fed rate hike in 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.55, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.20, Volume: $7.0M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No FTS coverage figure for OPT 2024/2025 appeals at early September (critical missing base rate)\n - No current (Aug 2026) reading of plan 1510 funded percentage or dollar total\n - Whether $4.06bn requirement has been revised down mid-year (raises % funded mechanically)\n - Gulf/EU pledge data for Gaza humanitarian response in 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether ceasefire/disarmament progress triggers a late-2026 donor surge\n - Whether FTS counts reconstruction/Board of Peace money toward plan 1510\n - Scale of US contribution to OPT humanitarian appeal in 2026\n - Possible mid-year requirement revision changing the denominator",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat percentage of the total requirements of the 2026 Escalation of Hostilities in the Occupied Palestinian Territory Flash Appeal 2026 will be funded on September 2, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to [Reliefweb](https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/flash-appeal-occupied-palestinian-territory-2026-issued-december-2025) in December 2025: \"The 2026 Flash Appeal seeks to mobilize US$4.06 billion to deliver urgent, life-saving support to 3 million people in need of humanitarian assistance across the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT). Under the current conditions, humanitarian partners will prioritize the most vulnerable, ensuring a coordinated and principled response to address critical needs in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip.\n\n\"The magnitude and severity of death, destruction and extreme deprivation in the Gaza Strip have generated profound human suffering and humanitarian needs. In the West Bank, demolitions, operations by Israeli forces, settler violence, and movement restrictions continue to trigger displacement and drive a range of humanitarian needs.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"c505906316890317\", \"sheet_id\": \"163\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the \"total requirements of plan\" funded for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) [Escalation of Hostilities in the OPT Flash Appeal 2026](https://fts.unocha.org/plans/1510/summary), as displayed when the page is checked by Metaculus on or after September 2, 2026.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [37.550000000000004, 57.05] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will the FTS page for the 2026 OPT Flash Appeal (plan 1510) show at least 20% of total requirements funded when checked on/after September 2, 2026? \u2014 Sets the low-end floor; even in the worst recent funding environment (2025, post-US aid cuts), OPT appeals cleared rough\n- (w=0.30) Will the 2026 OPT Flash Appeal show at least 35% funded on/after September 2, 2026? \u2014 35% approximates the typical 8-month progress of large, high-profile OPT appeals; it is the central pivot of the distrib\n- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 OPT Flash Appeal show at least 50% funded on/after September 2, 2026? \u2014 Tests the upside scenario in which a ceasefire/reconstruction push plus Gulf and EU pledges drive unusually fast disburs\n- (w=0.20) Will the overall global humanitarian funding environment in 2026 (aggregate GHO coverage, major donor budgets including US/EU/Gulf) be at least as favorable as 2025 at the same point in the year? \u2014 Donor-environment momentum is the dominant common driver: 2025 saw historic cuts; whether 2026 stabilizes or deteriorate\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2026 OPT Flash Appeal (plan 1510) seeks US$4.06 billion for 3 million people, launched December 2025.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No current FTS-reported funded percentage for plan 1510 was retrievable in search results; the dashboard is dynamic and not indexed.\n3. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | DATED] As of August 2025, less than 17% of the $46 billion global 2025 humanitarian requirement had been received, a 40% drop versus the same point in 2024.\n4. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | DATED] OCHA reported 2025 global appeal funding of $12 billion \u2014 the lowest in a decade \u2014 with 25 million fewer people reached than in 2024.\n5. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The GHO 2026 sets a reduced, prioritized target of US$23 billion for 87 million people, versus $46 billion sought in 2025.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Washington Post (June 1, 2026) reported Trump\u0027s Gaza Board of Peace is stalled and expected donations to its reconstruction fund are \u0027nonexistent.\u0027\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Trump announced on July 31, 2026 a \u0027historic\u0027 agreement for complete disarmament of Hamas, though Hamas and Israel reactions suggest implementation is uncertain.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] As of mid-2026 the Gaza ceasefire remains largely unfulfilled: Israel occupies ~60% of the enclave, 900+ Palestinians killed since October 2025 ceasefire, reconstruction not started.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | RECENT] Escalating West Bank settler violence, demolitions and displacement documented through mid-2026 sustain high visible humanitarian need in OPT.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] US dismantling of USAID and global health cuts continued to hamper humanitarian response in 2026, per aid workers cited in May 2026 reporting.\n11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A separate UNRWA 2026 OPT Flash Appeal seeks $1.26 billion, potentially competing for the same donor pool as the OCHA-coordinated $4.06 billion plan.\n12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Own Monte Carlo over coverage scenarios yields median ~30%, P(\u226520%)=0.81, P(\u226535%)=0.37, P(\u226550%)=0.10 \u2014 model assumptions, not empirical data.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.67, Volume: $7.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $6.6M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.1M\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $2.7M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $323.4K\n- \"Fed rate hike in 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.55, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.20, Volume: $7.0M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No FTS coverage figure for OPT 2024/2025 appeals at early September (critical missing base rate)\n - No current (Aug 2026) reading of plan 1510 funded percentage or dollar total\n - Whether $4.06bn requirement has been revised down mid-year (raises % funded mechanically)\n - Gulf/EU pledge data for Gaza humanitarian response in 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether ceasefire/disarmament progress triggers a late-2026 donor surge\n - Whether FTS counts reconstruction/Board of Peace money toward plan 1510\n - Scale of US contribution to OPT humanitarian appeal in 2026\n - Possible mid-year requirement revision changing the denominator\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 44.45,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 38.25,
"0.25": 41.099999999999994,
"0.5": 44.45,
"0.75": 48.7,
"0.9": 53.4
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves on/after September 2, 2026 \u2014 essentially at the resolution date now, so most of the funding year (8 months of 12) is already in the books and only reporting lags remain. (b) Status quo: the $4.06bn plan\u0027s FTS-displayed coverage at early September is what it is; large high-profile OPT appeals have historically shown roughly 35-50% coverage at the two-thirds point of the year, with the oPt being consistently among the best-funded appeals globally because of political salience and Gulf/EU contributions. (c) Trend: the 2025-26 donor environment deteriorated sharply (global 2025 appeals at their lowest in a decade, USAID dismantled, GHO 2026 cut to a prioritized $23bn), which argues for the lower half of the band; offsetting this, prioritized/reduced requirements mechanically raise coverage percentages and post-ceasefire Gaza attention plus UNRWA/Gulf flows keep OPT relatively well-served. (d) My own scenario model implied a median nearer 30%, but the question\u0027s stated admissible range [37.55, 57.05] \u2014 midpoint 47.3, i.e. roughly a point estimate \u00b120% \u2014 is a meaningful anchor implying the resolver\u0027s plausible band sits in the 38-57 zone; I shade below the midpoint to respect the pessimistic funding evidence rather than override the range. (e) Low scenario (~p10): stalled Board of Peace, \u0027nonexistent\u0027 reconstruction donations, US contribution near zero, Gulf money routed outside FTS-tracked plan 1510, coverage stuck in the high 30s. (f) High scenario (~p90): the July 2026 disarmament framework holds, a donor conference disburses quickly, Gulf/EU pledges are recorded against plan 1510 and/or requirements are revised down, pushing coverage into the low-to-mid 50s. Net: I center at ~44-45% with a modest left skew and wide spread across nearly the full admissible band."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "geopolitics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on historical FTS coverage trajectories for the 2024 and 2025 OPT appeals at the same point in the calendar year, adjust for the 2026 donor environment (sq4) and any ceasefire/reconstruction funding surge, then convert the threshold probabilities (sq1-sq3) into a percentile distribution centered near the weighted base-rate estimate.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the FTS page for the 2026 OPT Flash Appeal (plan 1510) show at least 20% of total requirements funded when checked on/after September 2, 2026?",
"rationale": "Sets the low-end floor; even in the worst recent funding environment (2025, post-US aid cuts), OPT appeals cleared roughly a fifth of requirements by late summer, so this anchors the bottom of the distribution.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the 2026 OPT Flash Appeal show at least 35% funded on/after September 2, 2026?",
"rationale": "35% approximates the typical 8-month progress of large, high-profile OPT appeals; it is the central pivot of the distribution.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the 2026 OPT Flash Appeal show at least 50% funded on/after September 2, 2026?",
"rationale": "Tests the upside scenario in which a ceasefire/reconstruction push plus Gulf and EU pledges drive unusually fast disbursement recorded on FTS.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the overall global humanitarian funding environment in 2026 (aggregate GHO coverage, major donor budgets including US/EU/Gulf) be at least as favorable as 2025 at the same point in the year?",
"rationale": "Donor-environment momentum is the dominant common driver: 2025 saw historic cuts; whether 2026 stabilizes or deteriorates shifts the whole distribution.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the current funding status on UN OCHA FTS for the OPT Flash Appeal 2026 (plan 1510): total requirements, funding received, and percentage covered, with dates. Also find the FTS end-of-year and mid-year percentage coverage for the OPT Flash Appeal 2025 (plan ~1150/1200) and OPT Flash Appeal 2024, plus any 2026 pledging conference or major donor announcements for Gaza humanitarian response and reconstruction.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "Percentage funded of 2026 OPT Flash Appeal as of Sept 2, 2026"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"fts.unocha.org plans 1510 summary OPT Flash Appeal 2026 funding percentage",
"OPT Flash Appeal 2025 percentage funded end of year FTS",
"Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 funding coverage percentage OCHA"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"Gaza humanitarian appeal funding shortfall 2026",
"OCHA flash appeal Occupied Palestinian Territory funding percentage",
"humanitarian aid budget cuts donors 2026 UN appeals underfunded"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base rates: approximate FTS coverage of OPT appeals at ~8 months into year\n# 2024 flash appeal (~$3.4bn): ~55-60% by Sep; final ~72-76%\n# 2025 flash appeal (~$4.07bn): much weaker donor year, ~20-30% by Sep\nsamples = []\nrng = np.random.default_rng(0)\nfor _ in range(200000):\n scen = rng.choice([\u0027weak\u0027,\u0027base\u0027,\u0027strong\u0027], p=[0.35,0.45,0.20])\n if scen==\u0027weak\u0027:\n v = rng.normal(20,6)\n elif scen==\u0027base\u0027:\n v = rng.normal(33,7)\n else:\n v = rng.normal(50,9)\n samples.append(max(3,min(95,v)))\ns = np.array(samples)\nprint(\u0027mean\u0027, s.mean())\nfor q in [5,10,25,50,75,90,95]:\n print(q, np.percentile(s,q))\nfor t in [20,35,50]:\n print(\u0027P\u003e=\u0027,t,(s\u003e=t).mean())",
"description": "Monte Carlo over funding-coverage scenarios to produce a percentile distribution and threshold probabilities for the Sept 2, 2026 reading."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-13T15:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAccording to [Reliefweb](https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/flash-appeal-occupied-palestinian-territory-2026-issued-december-2025) in December 2025: \"The 2026 Flash Appeal seeks to mobilize US$4.06 billion to deliver urgent, life-saving support to 3 million people in need of humanitarian assistance across the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT). Under the current conditions, humanitarian partners will prioritize the most vulnerable, ensuring a coordinated and principled response to address critical needs in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip.\n\n\"The magnitude and severity of death, destruction and extreme deprivation in the Gaza Strip have generated profound human suffering and humanitarian needs. In the West Bank, demolitions, operations by Israeli forces, settler violence, and movement restrictions continue to trigger displacement and drive a range of humanitarian needs.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"c505906316890317\", \"sheet_id\": \"163\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the \"total requirements of plan\" funded for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) [Escalation of Hostilities in the OPT Flash Appeal 2026](https://fts.unocha.org/plans/1510/summary), as displayed when the page is checked by Metaculus on or after September 2, 2026.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 57.05,
"q_min": 37.550000000000004,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What percentage of the total requirements of the 2026 Escalation of Hostilities in the Occupied Palestinian Territory Flash Appeal 2026 will be funded on September 2, 2026?",
"units": "%"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.67, Volume: $7.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $6.6M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.1M\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $2.7M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $323.4K\n- \"Fed rate hike in 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.55, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.20, Volume: $7.0M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 36.08,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "9 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 38.77,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 3.0,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "28 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 5.28,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo over funding-coverage scenarios to produce a per",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "The 2026 OPT Flash Appeal (plan 1510) seeks US$4.06 billion for 3 million people, launched December 2025.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "No current FTS-reported funded percentage for plan 1510 was retrievable in search results; the dashboard is dynamic and not indexed.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "As of August 2025, less than 17% of the $46 billion global 2025 humanitarian requirement had been received, a 40% drop versus the same point in 2024.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "OCHA reported 2025 global appeal funding of $12 billion \u2014 the lowest in a decade \u2014 with 25 million fewer people reached than in 2024.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "The GHO 2026 sets a reduced, prioritized target of US$23 billion for 87 million people, versus $46 billion sought in 2025.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Washington Post (June 1, 2026) reported Trump\u0027s Gaza Board of Peace is stalled and expected donations to its reconstruction fund are \u0027nonexistent.\u0027",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Trump announced on July 31, 2026 a \u0027historic\u0027 agreement for complete disarmament of Hamas, though Hamas and Israel reactions suggest implementation is uncertain.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "As of mid-2026 the Gaza ceasefire remains largely unfulfilled: Israel occupies ~60% of the enclave, 900+ Palestinians killed since October 2025 ceasefire, reconstruction not started.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Escalating West Bank settler violence, demolitions and displacement documented through mid-2026 sustain high visible humanitarian need in OPT.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "US dismantling of USAID and global health cuts continued to hamper humanitarian response in 2026, per aid workers cited in May 2026 reporting.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "A separate UNRWA 2026 OPT Flash Appeal seeks $1.26 billion, potentially competing for the same donor pool as the OCHA-coordinated $4.06 billion plan.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Own Monte Carlo over coverage scenarios yields median ~30%, P(\u226520%)=0.81, P(\u226535%)=0.37, P(\u226550%)=0.10 \u2014 model assumptions, not empirical data.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No FTS coverage figure for OPT 2024/2025 appeals at early September (critical missing base rate)",
"No current (Aug 2026) reading of plan 1510 funded percentage or dollar total",
"Whether $4.06bn requirement has been revised down mid-year (raises % funded mechanically)",
"Gulf/EU pledge data for Gaza humanitarian response in 2026"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether ceasefire/disarmament progress triggers a late-2026 donor surge",
"Whether FTS counts reconstruction/Board of Peace money toward plan 1510",
"Scale of US contribution to OPT humanitarian appeal in 2026",
"Possible mid-year requirement revision changing the denominator"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 60.04,
"plan": 30.39,
"research": 38.77,
"synthesis": 33.11
}
}