Use climatological distributions of late-August minima for the three realistic candidate groups (interior Alaska, Mount Washington NH, western high-elevation states) to derive a probability distribution over the coldest state, then weight-average those pathway probabilities with an adjustment for Ogimet rounding/tie-break rules.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $456.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.10, Volume: $1.9M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $971.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $264.6K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $182.2K - "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $131.0K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $135.1K - "Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.09, Volume: $169.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.07, Volume: $105.6K
1. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] On August 31, 2025, the coldest US reading on Ogimet was 0.0°C at Gulkana Airport, Alaska. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] NWS Bettles, Alaska records include a 15°F (-9.4°C) daily record low on August 31, 2013, the month's lowest record low. 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Alaska statewide August minima in recent years reached 26°F (2023, Red Dog Mine) and 23°F (2024, Chicken), i.e. roughly -3 to -5°C. 4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Alaska's coldest August extremes in 2023 and 2024 occurred at CRN/mesonet sites (Red Dog Mine, Chicken) that are not standard SYNOP stations reported by Ogimet. 5. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation of late-August minima gives Alaska ~67% probability of holding the coldest US station reading (~43% under a mild-Alaska scenario). 6. [sq2 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On May 31, 2026, the coldest US station on Ogimet was Mount Washington, New Hampshire, showing NH can win on individual days. 7. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 38 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation assigns Mount Washington/New Hampshire roughly 8% (up to ~14% in mild-Alaska scenario) chance of the coldest US minimum in late August. 8. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Mount Washington is 6,288 ft, the Northeast's highest peak, with a continuously reporting summit observatory. 9. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 38 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation gives the combined western high-elevation group (CO/WY/MT/CA/NV/ID/UT) ~25% (~43% in mild-Alaska scenario), diluted across many states individually. 10. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulated probability of an exact tie at 0.1°C resolution among the three candidate groups is only ~1.3%. 11. [sq4 | question_description | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Ogimet SYNOP minima are commonly reported at 0.1°C or whole-degree resolution, and multi-station ties at round values like 0.0°C are plausible in early autumn. 12. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No historical Ogimet Aug-31 daily ranking archive was located in search; direct multi-year base rates for the coldest-state outcome were not retrieved. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $456.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.10, Volume: $1.9M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $971.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $264.6K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $182.2K - "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $131.0K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $135.1K - "Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.09, Volume: $169.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.07, Volume: $105.6K Information gaps: - No multi-year Ogimet Aug-31 (or late-August) coldest-state base rate (e.g., 2015-2025 tallies) - No station-level climatology for Gulkana/Bettles/Northway Aug 31 minima distributions - No comparison of Mount Washington vs interior Alaska typical Aug 31 minima - No ENSO/seasonal outlook for Alaska interior late-summer temperatures in 2026 Key uncertainties: - Whether an early Arctic airmass/clear-calm night hits interior Alaska on Aug 31, 2026 - Which SYNOP-reporting stations Ogimet includes (mesonet cold spots may be excluded) - Whether an early western cold snap/snow event beats Alaska - Tie handling and rounding resolution on Ogimet output
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
What state will have the lowest temperature on August 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
On August 31, 2025, the coldest temperature recorded in the USA was [reported](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=United+S&rank=10&ano=2025&mes=08&day=31&hora=23&Send=send) at 0.0 Celsius degrees, at Gulkana Airport in Alaska.
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "0b0cee6b996d6dfd", "sheet_id": "156"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the state with the weather station recording the lowest minimum temperature in the United States according to [Ogimet](https://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en) on August 31, 2026. A state other than the ones listed resolves as Other.
## Fine Print
Ensure hour is set to 23.
For example on May 31, 2026, the weather station that recorded the lowest minimum temperature [was](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=United+S&rank=10&ano=2026&mes=05&day=31&hora=23&Send=send) Mount Washington in New Hampshire.
In the event of multiple weather stations from multiple states having the same lowest temperature, the question resolves to the one with the most weather stations recording that temperature. In the event of a tie, the question resolves to the state appearing as its own named option or the state that appears first alphabetically,
## Options
- Alaska
- Colorado
- Minnesota
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- Other
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.60) Will an Alaska weather station record the lowest minimum temperature in the United States on August 31, 2026 (Ogimet, hour 23)? — Interior Alaska stations (Gulkana, Bettles, Chalkyitsik, Chicken) routinely record near- or sub-freezing minima in late
- (w=0.15) Will the lowest US minimum on August 31, 2026 be recorded at Mount Washington, New Hampshire (or otherwise in the Northeast)? — Mount Washington's summit is the main non-Alaska contender due to extreme elevation, and it wins some late-spring/summer
- (w=0.15) Will the lowest US minimum on August 31, 2026 be recorded in a high-elevation interior western state (e.g., Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, California)? — Late-August cold snaps with clear-sky radiational cooling at Rockies/Great Basin stations (Bodie CA, Peter Sinks-type si
- (w=0.10) Conditional on Alaska not clearly winning, will the tie-breaking rules (multiple stations sharing the lowest temperature, then named-option/alphabetical precedence) shift resolution away from the naive coldest-single-station state? — Ogimet reports whole/one-decimal Celsius values, so ties at values like 0.0 or -1.0 are plausible; the tie-break clause
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] On August 31, 2025, the coldest US reading on Ogimet was 0.0°C at Gulkana Airport, Alaska.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] NWS Bettles, Alaska records include a 15°F (-9.4°C) daily record low on August 31, 2013, the month's lowest record low.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Alaska statewide August minima in recent years reached 26°F (2023, Red Dog Mine) and 23°F (2024, Chicken), i.e. roughly -3 to -5°C.
4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Alaska's coldest August extremes in 2023 and 2024 occurred at CRN/mesonet sites (Red Dog Mine, Chicken) that are not standard SYNOP stations reported by Ogimet.
5. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation of late-August minima gives Alaska ~67% probability of holding the coldest US station reading (~43% under a mild-Alaska scenario).
6. [sq2 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On May 31, 2026, the coldest US station on Ogimet was Mount Washington, New Hampshire, showing NH can win on individual days.
7. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 38 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation assigns Mount Washington/New Hampshire roughly 8% (up to ~14% in mild-Alaska scenario) chance of the coldest US minimum in late August.
8. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Mount Washington is 6,288 ft, the Northeast's highest peak, with a continuously reporting summit observatory.
9. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 38 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation gives the combined western high-elevation group (CO/WY/MT/CA/NV/ID/UT) ~25% (~43% in mild-Alaska scenario), diluted across many states individually.
10. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulated probability of an exact tie at 0.1°C resolution among the three candidate groups is only ~1.3%.
11. [sq4 | question_description | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Ogimet SYNOP minima are commonly reported at 0.1°C or whole-degree resolution, and multi-station ties at round values like 0.0°C are plausible in early autumn.
12. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No historical Ogimet Aug-31 daily ranking archive was located in search; direct multi-year base rates for the coldest-state outcome were not retrieved.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $456.4K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.10, Volume: $1.9M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $971.4K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.9K
- "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $264.6K
- "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $182.2K
- "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $131.0K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $135.1K
- "Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.09, Volume: $169.4K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.07, Volume: $105.6K
Information gaps:
- No multi-year Ogimet Aug-31 (or late-August) coldest-state base rate (e.g., 2015-2025 tallies)
- No station-level climatology for Gulkana/Bettles/Northway Aug 31 minima distributions
- No comparison of Mount Washington vs interior Alaska typical Aug 31 minima
- No ENSO/seasonal outlook for Alaska interior late-summer temperatures in 2026
Key uncertainties:
- Whether an early Arctic airmass/clear-calm night hits interior Alaska on Aug 31, 2026
- Which SYNOP-reporting stations Ogimet includes (mesonet cold spots may be excluded)
- Whether an early western cold snap/snow event beats Alaska
- Tie handling and rounding resolution on Ogimet output
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Alaska": <prob>,
"Colorado": <prob>,
"Minnesota": <prob>,
"Nevada": <prob>,
"New Hampshire": <prob>,
"Other": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] On August 31, 2025, the coldest US reading on Ogimet was 0.0\u00b0C at Gulkana Airport, Alaska.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] NWS Bettles, Alaska records include a 15\u00b0F (-9.4\u00b0C) daily record low on August 31, 2013, the month\u0027s lowest record low.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Alaska statewide August minima in recent years reached 26\u00b0F (2023, Red Dog Mine) and 23\u00b0F (2024, Chicken), i.e. roughly -3 to -5\u00b0C.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Alaska\u0027s coldest August extremes in 2023 and 2024 occurred at CRN/mesonet sites (Red Dog Mine, Chicken) that are not standard SYNOP stations reported by Ogimet.\n5. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation of late-August minima gives Alaska ~67% probability of holding the coldest US station reading (~43% under a mild-Alaska scenario).\n6. [sq2 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On May 31, 2026, the coldest US station on Ogimet was Mount Washington, New Hampshire, showing NH can win on individual days.\n7. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 38 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation assigns Mount Washington/New Hampshire roughly 8% (up to ~14% in mild-Alaska scenario) chance of the coldest US minimum in late August.\n8. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Mount Washington is 6,288 ft, the Northeast\u0027s highest peak, with a continuously reporting summit observatory.\n9. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 38 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation gives the combined western high-elevation group (CO/WY/MT/CA/NV/ID/UT) ~25% (~43% in mild-Alaska scenario), diluted across many states individually.\n10. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulated probability of an exact tie at 0.1\u00b0C resolution among the three candidate groups is only ~1.3%.\n11. [sq4 | question_description | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Ogimet SYNOP minima are commonly reported at 0.1\u00b0C or whole-degree resolution, and multi-station ties at round values like 0.0\u00b0C are plausible in early autumn.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No historical Ogimet Aug-31 daily ranking archive was located in search; direct multi-year base rates for the coldest-state outcome were not retrieved.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $456.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.10, Volume: $1.9M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $971.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $264.6K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $182.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $131.0K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $135.1K\n- \"Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.09, Volume: $169.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.07, Volume: $105.6K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No multi-year Ogimet Aug-31 (or late-August) coldest-state base rate (e.g., 2015-2025 tallies)\n - No station-level climatology for Gulkana/Bettles/Northway Aug 31 minima distributions\n - No comparison of Mount Washington vs interior Alaska typical Aug 31 minima\n - No ENSO/seasonal outlook for Alaska interior late-summer temperatures in 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether an early Arctic airmass/clear-calm night hits interior Alaska on Aug 31, 2026\n - Which SYNOP-reporting stations Ogimet includes (mesonet cold spots may be excluded)\n - Whether an early western cold snap/snow event beats Alaska\n - Tie handling and rounding resolution on Ogimet output",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWhat state will have the lowest temperature on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nOn August 31, 2025, the coldest temperature recorded in the USA was [reported](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2025\u0026mes=08\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) at 0.0 Celsius degrees, at Gulkana Airport in Alaska.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"0b0cee6b996d6dfd\", \"sheet_id\": \"156\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the state with the weather station recording the lowest minimum temperature in the United States according to [Ogimet](https://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en) on August 31, 2026. A state other than the ones listed resolves as Other.\n\n## Fine Print\nEnsure hour is set to 23. \n\nFor example on May 31, 2026, the weather station that recorded the lowest minimum temperature [was](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2026\u0026mes=05\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) Mount Washington in New Hampshire. \n\nIn the event of multiple weather stations from multiple states having the same lowest temperature, the question resolves to the one with the most weather stations recording that temperature. In the event of a tie, the question resolves to the state appearing as its own named option or the state that appears first alphabetically,\n\n## Options\n - Alaska\n - Colorado\n - Minnesota\n - Nevada\n - New Hampshire\n - Other\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.60) Will an Alaska weather station record the lowest minimum temperature in the United States on August 31, 2026 (Ogimet, hour 23)? \u2014 Interior Alaska stations (Gulkana, Bettles, Chalkyitsik, Chicken) routinely record near- or sub-freezing minima in late \n- (w=0.15) Will the lowest US minimum on August 31, 2026 be recorded at Mount Washington, New Hampshire (or otherwise in the Northeast)? \u2014 Mount Washington\u0027s summit is the main non-Alaska contender due to extreme elevation, and it wins some late-spring/summer\n- (w=0.15) Will the lowest US minimum on August 31, 2026 be recorded in a high-elevation interior western state (e.g., Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, California)? \u2014 Late-August cold snaps with clear-sky radiational cooling at Rockies/Great Basin stations (Bodie CA, Peter Sinks-type si\n- (w=0.10) Conditional on Alaska not clearly winning, will the tie-breaking rules (multiple stations sharing the lowest temperature, then named-option/alphabetical precedence) shift resolution away from the naive coldest-single-station state? \u2014 Ogimet reports whole/one-decimal Celsius values, so ties at values like 0.0 or -1.0 are plausible; the tie-break clause \n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] On August 31, 2025, the coldest US reading on Ogimet was 0.0\u00b0C at Gulkana Airport, Alaska.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] NWS Bettles, Alaska records include a 15\u00b0F (-9.4\u00b0C) daily record low on August 31, 2013, the month\u0027s lowest record low.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Alaska statewide August minima in recent years reached 26\u00b0F (2023, Red Dog Mine) and 23\u00b0F (2024, Chicken), i.e. roughly -3 to -5\u00b0C.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Alaska\u0027s coldest August extremes in 2023 and 2024 occurred at CRN/mesonet sites (Red Dog Mine, Chicken) that are not standard SYNOP stations reported by Ogimet.\n5. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation of late-August minima gives Alaska ~67% probability of holding the coldest US station reading (~43% under a mild-Alaska scenario).\n6. [sq2 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On May 31, 2026, the coldest US station on Ogimet was Mount Washington, New Hampshire, showing NH can win on individual days.\n7. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 38 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation assigns Mount Washington/New Hampshire roughly 8% (up to ~14% in mild-Alaska scenario) chance of the coldest US minimum in late August.\n8. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Mount Washington is 6,288 ft, the Northeast\u0027s highest peak, with a continuously reporting summit observatory.\n9. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 38 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation gives the combined western high-elevation group (CO/WY/MT/CA/NV/ID/UT) ~25% (~43% in mild-Alaska scenario), diluted across many states individually.\n10. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulated probability of an exact tie at 0.1\u00b0C resolution among the three candidate groups is only ~1.3%.\n11. [sq4 | question_description | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Ogimet SYNOP minima are commonly reported at 0.1\u00b0C or whole-degree resolution, and multi-station ties at round values like 0.0\u00b0C are plausible in early autumn.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No historical Ogimet Aug-31 daily ranking archive was located in search; direct multi-year base rates for the coldest-state outcome were not retrieved.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $456.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.10, Volume: $1.9M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $971.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $264.6K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $182.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $131.0K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $135.1K\n- \"Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.09, Volume: $169.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.07, Volume: $105.6K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No multi-year Ogimet Aug-31 (or late-August) coldest-state base rate (e.g., 2015-2025 tallies)\n - No station-level climatology for Gulkana/Bettles/Northway Aug 31 minima distributions\n - No comparison of Mount Washington vs interior Alaska typical Aug 31 minima\n - No ENSO/seasonal outlook for Alaska interior late-summer temperatures in 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether an early Arctic airmass/clear-calm night hits interior Alaska on Aug 31, 2026\n - Which SYNOP-reporting stations Ogimet includes (mesonet cold spots may be excluded)\n - Whether an early western cold snap/snow event beats Alaska\n - Tie handling and rounding resolution on Ogimet output\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Alaska\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Colorado\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Minnesota\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Nevada\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"New Hampshire\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Other\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"probabilities": {
"Alaska": 0.665,
"Colorado": 0.065,
"Minnesota": 0.03,
"Nevada": 0.0425,
"New Hampshire": 0.0825,
"Other": 0.11499999999999999
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves for a single day roughly 8+ months out, so there is no way to know the specific synoptic pattern; only climatology matters. (b) Status quo/base rate strongly favors Alaska: interior Alaska SYNOP stations (Gulkana, Bettles, Chalkyitsik, Northway, Chicken) routinely dip to or below 0\u00b0C by Aug 31, and that is exactly what happened in 2025 (0.0\u00b0C at Gulkana); Alaska also has many candidate cold stations, which helps under the tie-break rule. (c) A surprising but plausible outcome would be an unusually mild, cloudy/windy night across interior Alaska combined with an early Rockies/Great Basin cold snap or a freezing night atop Mount Washington \u2014 Mount Washington (6,288 ft, continuous reporting) demonstrably wins some days, as on May 31, 2026, and radiational-cooling sites in Colorado, Wyoming, Nevada, Montana, and Idaho can drop near or below freezing in late August. (d) Minnesota is a long shot: its late-August minima are typically 5\u201310\u00b0C, and its coldest spots (Embarrass, Cotton) are generally not the SYNOP stations Ogimet ranks. Monte Carlo-style reasoning gives Alaska roughly two-thirds to three-quarters, with the western high-elevation group collectively ~15\u201320% diluted across many states (so \u0027Other\u0027 absorbs Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, California, Maine, Oregon) and Mount Washington ~6\u20138%. I therefore anchor heavily on Alaska while leaving non-trivial probability elsewhere, since one-day weather outcomes are noisy.",
"top_option": "Alaska"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "climate",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Use climatological distributions of late-August minima for the three realistic candidate groups (interior Alaska, Mount Washington NH, western high-elevation states) to derive a probability distribution over the coldest state, then weight-average those pathway probabilities with an adjustment for Ogimet rounding/tie-break rules.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will an Alaska weather station record the lowest minimum temperature in the United States on August 31, 2026 (Ogimet, hour 23)?",
"rationale": "Interior Alaska stations (Gulkana, Bettles, Chalkyitsik, Chicken) routinely record near- or sub-freezing minima in late August and historically dominate late-August US cold rankings; this is the modal outcome.",
"weight": 0.6
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the lowest US minimum on August 31, 2026 be recorded at Mount Washington, New Hampshire (or otherwise in the Northeast)?",
"rationale": "Mount Washington\u0027s summit is the main non-Alaska contender due to extreme elevation, and it wins some late-spring/summer dates; it is the primary alternative pathway.",
"weight": 0.15
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the lowest US minimum on August 31, 2026 be recorded in a high-elevation interior western state (e.g., Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, California)?",
"rationale": "Late-August cold snaps with clear-sky radiational cooling at Rockies/Great Basin stations (Bodie CA, Peter Sinks-type sites, Stanley ID, West Yellowstone WY) can produce sub-freezing minima that could beat Alaska on a mild Alaskan night.",
"weight": 0.15
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Conditional on Alaska not clearly winning, will the tie-breaking rules (multiple stations sharing the lowest temperature, then named-option/alphabetical precedence) shift resolution away from the naive coldest-single-station state?",
"rationale": "Ogimet reports whole/one-decimal Celsius values, so ties at values like 0.0 or -1.0 are plausible; the tie-break clause materially affects which option resolves.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base-rate style Monte Carlo: distribution of coldest-state for late-August US minima\n# Encode approximate historical/climatological frequencies for Aug 28 - Sep 3 windows\n# Alaska interior stations: typical Aug 31 minima ~ -2 to +2 C (Gulkana, Bettles, Chalkyitsik)\n# Mount Washington NH: typical Aug 31 min ~ +2 to +6 C, occasionally near 0 C\n# Western high-elevation (CO/WY/MT/CA/NV/ID/UT): typical Aug 31 min ~ -2 to +4 C on clear radiational nights\nrng = np.random.default_rng(7)\nN = 200000\nak = rng.normal(-0.5, 2.2, N) # coldest Alaska station\nnh = rng.normal(4.0, 3.0, N) # Mount Washington summit\nwest = rng.normal(1.5, 2.5, N) # coldest western interior station\nmins = np.vstack([ak, nh, west])\nwin = np.argmin(mins, axis=0)\nlabels = [\u0027Alaska\u0027,\u0027New Hampshire\u0027,\u0027West(CO/WY/MT/CA/NV/ID/UT)\u0027]\nfor i,l in enumerate(labels):\n print(l, round((win==i).mean(),4))\n# sensitivity: if Alaska is unusually mild (shift +2C)\nak2 = ak + 2.0\nmins2 = np.vstack([ak2, nh, west]); win2 = np.argmin(mins2, axis=0)\nprint(\u0027--- mild Alaska scenario ---\u0027)\nfor i,l in enumerate(labels):\n print(l, round((win2==i).mean(),4))\n# probability of ties at rounded 0.1C among top candidates\nrounded = np.round(mins,1)\ntop = rounded.min(axis=0)\nties = ((rounded == top).sum(axis=0) \u003e 1).mean()\nprint(\u0027tie probability (0.1C resolution, 3 candidate groups):\u0027, round(ties,4))",
"description": "Monte Carlo over plausible late-August minimum-temperature distributions for Alaska interior, Mount Washington, and western high-elevation stations to estimate the probability each state group records the US coldest reading, plus tie frequency."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Gulkana Airport climate",
"Bettles Airport climate",
"Mount Washington (New Hampshire) climate",
"Bodie, California climate",
"Peter Sinks"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Ogimet ranking lowest minimum temperature United States August 31 Alaska",
"coldest temperature in the US late August 2024 2023 Alaska Gulkana Bettles",
"Mount Washington summit low temperature end of August record"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-10T21:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nOn August 31, 2025, the coldest temperature recorded in the USA was [reported](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2025\u0026mes=08\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) at 0.0 Celsius degrees, at Gulkana Airport in Alaska.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"0b0cee6b996d6dfd\", \"sheet_id\": \"156\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the state with the weather station recording the lowest minimum temperature in the United States according to [Ogimet](https://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en) on August 31, 2026. A state other than the ones listed resolves as Other.\n\n## Fine Print\nEnsure hour is set to 23. \n\nFor example on May 31, 2026, the weather station that recorded the lowest minimum temperature [was](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2026\u0026mes=05\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) Mount Washington in New Hampshire. \n\nIn the event of multiple weather stations from multiple states having the same lowest temperature, the question resolves to the one with the most weather stations recording that temperature. In the event of a tie, the question resolves to the state appearing as its own named option or the state that appears first alphabetically,",
"options": [
"Alaska",
"Colorado",
"Minnesota",
"Nevada",
"New Hampshire",
"Other"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "What state will have the lowest temperature on August 31, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $456.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.10, Volume: $1.9M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $971.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $264.6K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $182.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $131.0K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $135.1K\n- \"Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.09, Volume: $169.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.07, Volume: $105.6K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.31,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo over plausible late-August minimum-temperature d",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.27,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 29.31,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "On August 31, 2025, the coldest US reading on Ogimet was 0.0\u00b0C at Gulkana Airport, Alaska.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "NWS Bettles, Alaska records include a 15\u00b0F (-9.4\u00b0C) daily record low on August 31, 2013, the month\u0027s lowest record low.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Alaska statewide August minima in recent years reached 26\u00b0F (2023, Red Dog Mine) and 23\u00b0F (2024, Chicken), i.e. roughly -3 to -5\u00b0C.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Alaska\u0027s coldest August extremes in 2023 and 2024 occurred at CRN/mesonet sites (Red Dog Mine, Chicken) that are not standard SYNOP stations reported by Ogimet.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo simulation of late-August minima gives Alaska ~67% probability of holding the coldest US station reading (~43% under a mild-Alaska scenario).",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "On May 31, 2026, the coldest US station on Ogimet was Mount Washington, New Hampshire, showing NH can win on individual days.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Simulation assigns Mount Washington/New Hampshire roughly 8% (up to ~14% in mild-Alaska scenario) chance of the coldest US minimum in late August.",
"credibility": 38,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Mount Washington is 6,288 ft, the Northeast\u0027s highest peak, with a continuously reporting summit observatory.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Simulation gives the combined western high-elevation group (CO/WY/MT/CA/NV/ID/UT) ~25% (~43% in mild-Alaska scenario), diluted across many states individually.",
"credibility": 38,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Simulated probability of an exact tie at 0.1\u00b0C resolution among the three candidate groups is only ~1.3%.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Ogimet SYNOP minima are commonly reported at 0.1\u00b0C or whole-degree resolution, and multi-station ties at round values like 0.0\u00b0C are plausible in early autumn.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "No historical Ogimet Aug-31 daily ranking archive was located in search; direct multi-year base rates for the coldest-state outcome were not retrieved.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No multi-year Ogimet Aug-31 (or late-August) coldest-state base rate (e.g., 2015-2025 tallies)",
"No station-level climatology for Gulkana/Bettles/Northway Aug 31 minima distributions",
"No comparison of Mount Washington vs interior Alaska typical Aug 31 minima",
"No ENSO/seasonal outlook for Alaska interior late-summer temperatures in 2026"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether an early Arctic airmass/clear-calm night hits interior Alaska on Aug 31, 2026",
"Which SYNOP-reporting stations Ogimet includes (mesonet cold spots may be excluded)",
"Whether an early western cold snap/snow event beats Alaska",
"Tie handling and rounding resolution on Ogimet output"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 39.31,
"plan": 30.8,
"research": 29.32,
"synthesis": 27.66
}
}