Estimate a climatological base rate for which state hosts the hottest reporting US SYNOP station on a late-August day, adjust for whether California's Death Valley/low-desert stations reliably appear in Ogimet's feed, then normalize the four mutually exclusive option probabilities via the weighted blend.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $658.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.45, Volume: $840.1K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $222.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $125.3K - "Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" → Yes: 0.81, Volume: $5.9M
1. [sq2 | question_description | STRONG cred 92 | UP | DATED] On August 31, 2025, the highest Ogimet US maximum was 41.1°C at Phoenix Sky Harbor, Arizona. 2. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | DATED] The 2025 winning value of only 41.1°C is well below Death Valley/Furnace Creek late-August norms, suggesting CA low-desert stations may be absent or under-reported in the Ogimet SYNOP feed. 3. [sq3 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | RECENT] On May 31, 2026 the top Ogimet US maximum was a three-way tie among Abilene, Lubbock and Sheppard AFB, all in Texas. 4. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | DOWN | DATED] Texas heat peaks climatologically in late July–August but its desert/plains stations rarely exceed Sonoran/Mojave desert maxima in late August. 5. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | DATED] Death Valley, California holds the world's highest recorded air temperature (56.7°C, 1913) and routinely records the hottest US readings when reporting. 6. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | DATED] Phoenix has the hottest average summer highs of any major US city, exceeding 38°C on ~111 days per year including most of late September. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 93 | NEUTRAL | DATED] NOAA/NCEI reported Arizona's August 2025 was its second-warmest August on record, 4.6°F above average. 8. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] State all-time records show Nevada (125°F) and New Mexico (122°F) trail California and Arizona, but Nevada desert stations (Las Vegas, Laughlin) can top daily rankings. 9. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A self-constructed base-rate blend outputs CA 35%, AZ 37%, NV 10.5%, TX 8.5%, Other 8.5% for hottest-state on a late-August day. 10. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Under the model's grouping, non-CA/AZ/TX states (mainly Nevada) collectively total roughly 19% of scenarios. 11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Researchers could not retrieve live Ogimet ranking tables; no direct verification of which CA stations appear in the US SYNOP feed was obtained. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $658.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.45, Volume: $840.1K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $222.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $125.3K - "Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" → Yes: 0.81, Volume: $5.9M Information gaps: - No multi-year historical tally of Ogimet's hottest-US-station state for Aug 25–Sep 5 (the key base rate) - Unverified whether Death Valley/Furnace Creek, Thermal, Imperial report SYNOP data to Ogimet - No long-range forecast for late August 2026 Southwest heat pattern - No Kalshi/market pricing data provided Key uncertainties: - Whether CA low-desert stations appear in the Ogimet feed on the day - Whether monsoon cloud/moisture suppresses Arizona maxima on Aug 31 - Tie-breaking rules could shift resolution between AZ and CA - Possibility of an anomalous Plains/Texas heat ridge in late August
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
What state will have the hottest temperature on August 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
On August 31, 2025, the hottest temperature was [reported](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=United+S&rank=10&ano=2025&mes=08&day=31&hora=23&Send=send) at 41.1 Celsius degrees. at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport in Arizona.
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "6300e03bff461528", "sheet_id": "155"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the state with the weather station recording the highest maximum temperature in the United States according to [Ogimet](https://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en) on August 31, 2026. A state other than the three listed resolves as Other.
## Fine Print
Ensure hour is set to 23.
For example on May 31, 2026, three weather stations recorded the highest maximum temperature [were](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=United+S&rank=10&ano=2026&mes=05&day=31&hora=23&Send=send) Abilene Regional Airport, Lubbock International Airport, and Sheppard Air Force Base, all in Texas.
In the event of multiple weather stations from multiple states having the same highest temperature, the question resolves to the one with the most weather stations recording that temperature. In the event of a tie, the question resolves to the state appearing as its own named option or the state that appears first alphabetically.
## Options
- Texas
- Arizona
- Nevada
- Other
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will the single highest maximum temperature reported by Ogimet for US stations on August 31, 2026 (hour 23) be recorded at a station in California (e.g., Death Valley/Furnace Creek, Thermal, Imperial, Needles)? — California's low-desert stations (especially Death Valley) climatologically post the hottest US readings on most late-Au
- (w=0.35) Will the highest maximum temperature on Ogimet for August 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Arizona (e.g., Phoenix Sky Harbor, Yuma, Lake Havasu)? — Arizona won the 2025 analogue (Phoenix 41.1C) and Arizona desert stations reliably report SYNOP data, making it the main
- (w=0.15) Will the highest maximum temperature on Ogimet for August 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Texas? — Texas occasionally tops US daily rankings in late summer during ridging/drought, but late-August Texas highs usually tra
- (w=0.15) Will the highest maximum temperature on Ogimet for August 31, 2026 be recorded in a state other than California, Arizona, or Texas (e.g., Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas)? — Nevada (Las Vegas, Laughlin) and other Southwest/Plains states can win on days with unusual synoptic patterns or when ke
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq2 | question_description | STRONG cred 92 | UP | DATED] On August 31, 2025, the highest Ogimet US maximum was 41.1°C at Phoenix Sky Harbor, Arizona.
2. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | DATED] The 2025 winning value of only 41.1°C is well below Death Valley/Furnace Creek late-August norms, suggesting CA low-desert stations may be absent or under-reported in the Ogimet SYNOP feed.
3. [sq3 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | RECENT] On May 31, 2026 the top Ogimet US maximum was a three-way tie among Abilene, Lubbock and Sheppard AFB, all in Texas.
4. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | DOWN | DATED] Texas heat peaks climatologically in late July–August but its desert/plains stations rarely exceed Sonoran/Mojave desert maxima in late August.
5. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | DATED] Death Valley, California holds the world's highest recorded air temperature (56.7°C, 1913) and routinely records the hottest US readings when reporting.
6. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | DATED] Phoenix has the hottest average summer highs of any major US city, exceeding 38°C on ~111 days per year including most of late September.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 93 | NEUTRAL | DATED] NOAA/NCEI reported Arizona's August 2025 was its second-warmest August on record, 4.6°F above average.
8. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] State all-time records show Nevada (125°F) and New Mexico (122°F) trail California and Arizona, but Nevada desert stations (Las Vegas, Laughlin) can top daily rankings.
9. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A self-constructed base-rate blend outputs CA 35%, AZ 37%, NV 10.5%, TX 8.5%, Other 8.5% for hottest-state on a late-August day.
10. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Under the model's grouping, non-CA/AZ/TX states (mainly Nevada) collectively total roughly 19% of scenarios.
11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Researchers could not retrieve live Ogimet ranking tables; no direct verification of which CA stations appear in the US SYNOP feed was obtained.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $658.9K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.45, Volume: $840.1K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $222.4K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $125.3K
- "Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" → Yes: 0.81, Volume: $5.9M
Information gaps:
- No multi-year historical tally of Ogimet's hottest-US-station state for Aug 25–Sep 5 (the key base rate)
- Unverified whether Death Valley/Furnace Creek, Thermal, Imperial report SYNOP data to Ogimet
- No long-range forecast for late August 2026 Southwest heat pattern
- No Kalshi/market pricing data provided
Key uncertainties:
- Whether CA low-desert stations appear in the Ogimet feed on the day
- Whether monsoon cloud/moisture suppresses Arizona maxima on Aug 31
- Tie-breaking rules could shift resolution between AZ and CA
- Possibility of an anomalous Plains/Texas heat ridge in late August
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Texas": <prob>,
"Arizona": <prob>,
"Nevada": <prob>,
"Other": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq2 | question_description | STRONG cred 92 | UP | DATED] On August 31, 2025, the highest Ogimet US maximum was 41.1\u00b0C at Phoenix Sky Harbor, Arizona.\n2. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | DATED] The 2025 winning value of only 41.1\u00b0C is well below Death Valley/Furnace Creek late-August norms, suggesting CA low-desert stations may be absent or under-reported in the Ogimet SYNOP feed.\n3. [sq3 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | RECENT] On May 31, 2026 the top Ogimet US maximum was a three-way tie among Abilene, Lubbock and Sheppard AFB, all in Texas.\n4. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | DOWN | DATED] Texas heat peaks climatologically in late July\u2013August but its desert/plains stations rarely exceed Sonoran/Mojave desert maxima in late August.\n5. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | DATED] Death Valley, California holds the world\u0027s highest recorded air temperature (56.7\u00b0C, 1913) and routinely records the hottest US readings when reporting.\n6. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | DATED] Phoenix has the hottest average summer highs of any major US city, exceeding 38\u00b0C on ~111 days per year including most of late September.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 93 | NEUTRAL | DATED] NOAA/NCEI reported Arizona\u0027s August 2025 was its second-warmest August on record, 4.6\u00b0F above average.\n8. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] State all-time records show Nevada (125\u00b0F) and New Mexico (122\u00b0F) trail California and Arizona, but Nevada desert stations (Las Vegas, Laughlin) can top daily rankings.\n9. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A self-constructed base-rate blend outputs CA 35%, AZ 37%, NV 10.5%, TX 8.5%, Other 8.5% for hottest-state on a late-August day.\n10. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Under the model\u0027s grouping, non-CA/AZ/TX states (mainly Nevada) collectively total roughly 19% of scenarios.\n11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Researchers could not retrieve live Ogimet ranking tables; no direct verification of which CA stations appear in the US SYNOP feed was obtained.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $658.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.45, Volume: $840.1K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $222.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $125.3K\n- \"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.81, Volume: $5.9M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No multi-year historical tally of Ogimet\u0027s hottest-US-station state for Aug 25\u2013Sep 5 (the key base rate)\n - Unverified whether Death Valley/Furnace Creek, Thermal, Imperial report SYNOP data to Ogimet\n - No long-range forecast for late August 2026 Southwest heat pattern\n - No Kalshi/market pricing data provided\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether CA low-desert stations appear in the Ogimet feed on the day\n - Whether monsoon cloud/moisture suppresses Arizona maxima on Aug 31\n - Tie-breaking rules could shift resolution between AZ and CA\n - Possibility of an anomalous Plains/Texas heat ridge in late August",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWhat state will have the hottest temperature on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nOn August 31, 2025, the hottest temperature was [reported](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2025\u0026mes=08\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) at 41.1 Celsius degrees. at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport in Arizona.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"6300e03bff461528\", \"sheet_id\": \"155\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the state with the weather station recording the highest maximum temperature in the United States according to [Ogimet](https://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en) on August 31, 2026. A state other than the three listed resolves as Other.\n\n## Fine Print\nEnsure hour is set to 23. \n\nFor example on May 31, 2026, three weather stations recorded the highest maximum temperature [were](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2026\u0026mes=05\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) Abilene Regional Airport, Lubbock International Airport, and Sheppard Air Force Base, all in Texas. \n\nIn the event of multiple weather stations from multiple states having the same highest temperature, the question resolves to the one with the most weather stations recording that temperature. In the event of a tie, the question resolves to the state appearing as its own named option or the state that appears first alphabetically.\n\n## Options\n - Texas\n - Arizona\n - Nevada\n - Other\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will the single highest maximum temperature reported by Ogimet for US stations on August 31, 2026 (hour 23) be recorded at a station in California (e.g., Death Valley/Furnace Creek, Thermal, Imperial, Needles)? \u2014 California\u0027s low-desert stations (especially Death Valley) climatologically post the hottest US readings on most late-Au\n- (w=0.35) Will the highest maximum temperature on Ogimet for August 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Arizona (e.g., Phoenix Sky Harbor, Yuma, Lake Havasu)? \u2014 Arizona won the 2025 analogue (Phoenix 41.1C) and Arizona desert stations reliably report SYNOP data, making it the main\n- (w=0.15) Will the highest maximum temperature on Ogimet for August 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Texas? \u2014 Texas occasionally tops US daily rankings in late summer during ridging/drought, but late-August Texas highs usually tra\n- (w=0.15) Will the highest maximum temperature on Ogimet for August 31, 2026 be recorded in a state other than California, Arizona, or Texas (e.g., Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas)? \u2014 Nevada (Las Vegas, Laughlin) and other Southwest/Plains states can win on days with unusual synoptic patterns or when ke\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq2 | question_description | STRONG cred 92 | UP | DATED] On August 31, 2025, the highest Ogimet US maximum was 41.1\u00b0C at Phoenix Sky Harbor, Arizona.\n2. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | DATED] The 2025 winning value of only 41.1\u00b0C is well below Death Valley/Furnace Creek late-August norms, suggesting CA low-desert stations may be absent or under-reported in the Ogimet SYNOP feed.\n3. [sq3 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | RECENT] On May 31, 2026 the top Ogimet US maximum was a three-way tie among Abilene, Lubbock and Sheppard AFB, all in Texas.\n4. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | DOWN | DATED] Texas heat peaks climatologically in late July\u2013August but its desert/plains stations rarely exceed Sonoran/Mojave desert maxima in late August.\n5. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | DATED] Death Valley, California holds the world\u0027s highest recorded air temperature (56.7\u00b0C, 1913) and routinely records the hottest US readings when reporting.\n6. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | DATED] Phoenix has the hottest average summer highs of any major US city, exceeding 38\u00b0C on ~111 days per year including most of late September.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 93 | NEUTRAL | DATED] NOAA/NCEI reported Arizona\u0027s August 2025 was its second-warmest August on record, 4.6\u00b0F above average.\n8. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] State all-time records show Nevada (125\u00b0F) and New Mexico (122\u00b0F) trail California and Arizona, but Nevada desert stations (Las Vegas, Laughlin) can top daily rankings.\n9. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A self-constructed base-rate blend outputs CA 35%, AZ 37%, NV 10.5%, TX 8.5%, Other 8.5% for hottest-state on a late-August day.\n10. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Under the model\u0027s grouping, non-CA/AZ/TX states (mainly Nevada) collectively total roughly 19% of scenarios.\n11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Researchers could not retrieve live Ogimet ranking tables; no direct verification of which CA stations appear in the US SYNOP feed was obtained.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $658.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.45, Volume: $840.1K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $222.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $125.3K\n- \"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.81, Volume: $5.9M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No multi-year historical tally of Ogimet\u0027s hottest-US-station state for Aug 25\u2013Sep 5 (the key base rate)\n - Unverified whether Death Valley/Furnace Creek, Thermal, Imperial report SYNOP data to Ogimet\n - No long-range forecast for late August 2026 Southwest heat pattern\n - No Kalshi/market pricing data provided\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether CA low-desert stations appear in the Ogimet feed on the day\n - Whether monsoon cloud/moisture suppresses Arizona maxima on Aug 31\n - Tie-breaking rules could shift resolution between AZ and CA\n - Possibility of an anomalous Plains/Texas heat ridge in late August\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Texas\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Arizona\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Nevada\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Other\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"probabilities": {
"Arizona": 0.43,
"Nevada": 0.105,
"Other": 0.325,
"Texas": 0.14
},
"rationale": "(a) Resolution is ~August 31, 2026, so roughly a year out from the base evidence \u2014 essentially a pure climatology/base-rate question with no useful weather forecast available. (b) Status quo: Arizona, which won the identical calendar date in 2025 (Phoenix Sky Harbor 41.1\u00b0C) and whose Sonoran-desert stations (Phoenix, Yuma, Lake Havasu, Bullhead City) are numerous, reliably in the Ogimet SYNOP feed, and climatologically hottest in late August. (c) Surprising but plausible: a Plains/Texas ridge with drought-baked soils pushing Wichita Falls/Del Rio/Childress above the Southwest, or an active monsoon burst cloaking Arizona in clouds and storms while Nevada (Las Vegas/Laughlin) or California\u0027s low desert takes the top spot. The notable evidence is that the 2025 winning value was only 41.1\u00b0C \u2014 far below Death Valley/Furnace Creek norms \u2014 strongly suggesting California\u0027s hottest low-desert stations are not in the Ogimet SYNOP ranking, which sharply reduces the \u0027Other\u0027 (California) share relative to naive climatology. Still, a compressed winning threshold near 40\u201342\u00b0C means many states can plausibly tie or edge ahead on any given day, so Nevada, Texas, and Other retain meaningful probability. I weight Arizona clearly highest, with \u0027Other\u0027 (mostly California, plus New Mexico/Utah/Oklahoma) second, and Texas and Nevada in the low teens.",
"top_option": "Arizona"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "climate",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate a climatological base rate for which state hosts the hottest reporting US SYNOP station on a late-August day, adjust for whether California\u0027s Death Valley/low-desert stations reliably appear in Ogimet\u0027s feed, then normalize the four mutually exclusive option probabilities via the weighted blend.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the single highest maximum temperature reported by Ogimet for US stations on August 31, 2026 (hour 23) be recorded at a station in California (e.g., Death Valley/Furnace Creek, Thermal, Imperial, Needles)?",
"rationale": "California\u0027s low-desert stations (especially Death Valley) climatologically post the hottest US readings on most late-August days when they report to Ogimet.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the highest maximum temperature on Ogimet for August 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Arizona (e.g., Phoenix Sky Harbor, Yuma, Lake Havasu)?",
"rationale": "Arizona won the 2025 analogue (Phoenix 41.1C) and Arizona desert stations reliably report SYNOP data, making it the main competitor to California.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the highest maximum temperature on Ogimet for August 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Texas?",
"rationale": "Texas occasionally tops US daily rankings in late summer during ridging/drought, but late-August Texas highs usually trail desert Southwest values.",
"weight": 0.15
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the highest maximum temperature on Ogimet for August 31, 2026 be recorded in a state other than California, Arizona, or Texas (e.g., Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas)?",
"rationale": "Nevada (Las Vegas, Laughlin) and other Southwest/Plains states can win on days with unusual synoptic patterns or when key desert stations fail to report.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base-rate framework: estimate probability each state hosts the hottest US SYNOP station on a late-August day.\n# Historical prior (late Aug, Ogimet US rankings, hour 23): CA (Death Valley/Thermal/Imperial) most frequent winner,\n# AZ (Phoenix/Yuma) second, NV occasionally, TX rarely.\npriors = {\u0027CA\u0027:0.42,\u0027AZ\u0027:0.33,\u0027NV\u0027:0.09,\u0027TX\u0027:0.08,\u0027Other\u0027:0.08}\n# Sensitivity: if Death Valley station is not in Ogimet SYNOP feed, CA share drops sharply toward AZ.\nscenarios = {\u0027DV_reports\u0027:0.75,\u0027DV_missing\u0027:0.25}\nalt = {\u0027CA\u0027:0.15,\u0027AZ\u0027:0.50,\u0027NV\u0027:0.15,\u0027TX\u0027:0.10,\u0027Other\u0027:0.10}\nfinal={}\nfor k in priors:\n final[k]=scenarios[\u0027DV_reports\u0027]*priors[k]+scenarios[\u0027DV_missing\u0027]*alt[k]\ns=sum(final.values())\nfinal={k:v/s for k,v in final.items()}\nprint(final)\n# Simulate tie-handling noise (ties broken by station count / alphabetical) - minor effect\nprint(\u0027AZ+CA combined\u0027, final[\u0027AZ\u0027]+final[\u0027CA\u0027])",
"description": "Base-rate blend for which state records the hottest US temperature on a late-August day, with scenario weighting for whether Death Valley/CA desert stations appear in the Ogimet SYNOP ranking."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Death Valley National Park climate Furnace Creek temperature records",
"Phoenix, Arizona climate August average high",
"List of highest temperatures recorded in the United States"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Ogimet ranking United States highest maximum temperature Death Valley station SYNOP",
"Ogimet daily US temperature ranking August 2025 hottest station",
"NOAA CPC August 2026 temperature outlook Southwest"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-10T03:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nOn August 31, 2025, the hottest temperature was [reported](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2025\u0026mes=08\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) at 41.1 Celsius degrees. at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport in Arizona.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"6300e03bff461528\", \"sheet_id\": \"155\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the state with the weather station recording the highest maximum temperature in the United States according to [Ogimet](https://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en) on August 31, 2026. A state other than the three listed resolves as Other.\n\n## Fine Print\nEnsure hour is set to 23. \n\nFor example on May 31, 2026, three weather stations recorded the highest maximum temperature [were](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2026\u0026mes=05\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) Abilene Regional Airport, Lubbock International Airport, and Sheppard Air Force Base, all in Texas. \n\nIn the event of multiple weather stations from multiple states having the same highest temperature, the question resolves to the one with the most weather stations recording that temperature. In the event of a tie, the question resolves to the state appearing as its own named option or the state that appears first alphabetically.",
"options": [
"Texas",
"Arizona",
"Nevada",
"Other"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "What state will have the hottest temperature on August 31, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $658.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.45, Volume: $840.1K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $222.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $125.3K\n- \"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.81, Volume: $5.9M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.29,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Base-rate blend for which state records the hottest US tempe",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.87,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 37.7,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "On August 31, 2025, the highest Ogimet US maximum was 41.1\u00b0C at Phoenix Sky Harbor, Arizona.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The 2025 winning value of only 41.1\u00b0C is well below Death Valley/Furnace Creek late-August norms, suggesting CA low-desert stations may be absent or under-reported in the Ogimet SYNOP feed.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "On May 31, 2026 the top Ogimet US maximum was a three-way tie among Abilene, Lubbock and Sheppard AFB, all in Texas.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Texas heat peaks climatologically in late July\u2013August but its desert/plains stations rarely exceed Sonoran/Mojave desert maxima in late August.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Death Valley, California holds the world\u0027s highest recorded air temperature (56.7\u00b0C, 1913) and routinely records the hottest US readings when reporting.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Phoenix has the hottest average summer highs of any major US city, exceeding 38\u00b0C on ~111 days per year including most of late September.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "NOAA/NCEI reported Arizona\u0027s August 2025 was its second-warmest August on record, 4.6\u00b0F above average.",
"credibility": 93,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "State all-time records show Nevada (125\u00b0F) and New Mexico (122\u00b0F) trail California and Arizona, but Nevada desert stations (Las Vegas, Laughlin) can top daily rankings.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "A self-constructed base-rate blend outputs CA 35%, AZ 37%, NV 10.5%, TX 8.5%, Other 8.5% for hottest-state on a late-August day.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Under the model\u0027s grouping, non-CA/AZ/TX states (mainly Nevada) collectively total roughly 19% of scenarios.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Researchers could not retrieve live Ogimet ranking tables; no direct verification of which CA stations appear in the US SYNOP feed was obtained.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No multi-year historical tally of Ogimet\u0027s hottest-US-station state for Aug 25\u2013Sep 5 (the key base rate)",
"Unverified whether Death Valley/Furnace Creek, Thermal, Imperial report SYNOP data to Ogimet",
"No long-range forecast for late August 2026 Southwest heat pattern",
"No Kalshi/market pricing data provided"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether CA low-desert stations appear in the Ogimet feed on the day",
"Whether monsoon cloud/moisture suppresses Arizona maxima on Aug 31",
"Tie-breaking rules could shift resolution between AZ and CA",
"Possibility of an anomalous Plains/Texas heat ridge in late August"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 57.29,
"plan": 23.84,
"research": 37.7,
"synthesis": 30.2
}
}