Build an empirical distribution of the day-31 domestic cume by applying historical opening-weekend-to-day-31 multipliers (calibrated by the observed weekday holds and the Aug 7-9 second weekend) to the known $360M opening, then convert the threshold sub-question probabilities into a numeric CDF, weighting the second-weekend-legs sub-question as the key calibrator.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $527.6K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $1.5M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.47, Volume: $669.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $98.3K
1. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Second weekend grossed approximately $143M, an ~60% decline from the $360M opening, per Variety/Deadline/THR estimates published Aug 7-8, 2026. 2. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Second Friday grossed $43M from 4,487 theaters, the basis for the $143M weekend projection, short of the ~$151M needed for a sub-58% drop. 3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Domestic cume reached $653M after 10 days, the best 10-day domestic start in history, with $510.8M through 9 days. 4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Weekday holds were record-setting: $47M Monday, $42M Tuesday, $29M second Thursday, indicating unusually strong midweek legs. 5. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using historical opening-weekend-to-day-31 multipliers gives median day-31 cume of $943M, with P(>$850M)=0.79, P(>$950M)=0.48, P(>$1.05B)=0.21. 6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Star Wars: The Force Awakens holds the all-time domestic record at $936.6M; a >$950M 31-day cume would break that record within one month. 7. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 62 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Historical day-31/day-10 ratios for comparable mega-blockbusters run roughly 1.29 (Endgame), 1.35 (Force Awakens), 1.43 (No Way Home), implying ~$840M-$935M from a $653M day-10 base. 8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No Way Home's 3x+ domestic multiplier came from a December holiday release; Brand New Day opened July 31 with late-August school returns compressing legs. 9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The film's ~60% second-weekend drop is closer to Endgame's -58.7% than No Way Home's -67.5% or Force Awakens' -39.9%. 10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Film crossed $1B worldwide in six days, second-fastest ever, and was fastest to $400M and $500M domestic (4 and 7 days). 11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Box Office Mojo's release page for the film returned only generic metadata; no confirmed daily grosses beyond media reports were retrieved. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $527.6K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $1.5M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.47, Volume: $669.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $98.3K Information gaps: - No actual (vs. estimated) second-weekend figure or days 11-14 daily grosses - No data on competing August 2026 wide releases that could accelerate declines - Missing explicit historical day-31 cume table for Endgame/NWH/TFA/Barbie - No audience scores (CinemaScore/PostTrak/exit polls) to gauge word-of-mouth legs Key uncertainties: - Third/fourth weekend drop magnitude as US schools resume mid-to-late August - Whether premium-format and IMAX runs get extended or reallocated - Whether the $143M second weekend was an estimate later revised up or down - Reliability of the Monte Carlo multiplier prior versus the observed -60% drop
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
How much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
*Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton and starring Tom Holland, opened in North American theaters on July 31, 2026. It set the record for the [biggest domestic opening weekend of all time with \$360 million](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/spider-man-brand-new-day-box-office-opening-record-avengers-endgame-1236826336/), surpassing *Avengers: Endgame*'s \$357.1 million (2019, unadjusted), along with records for previews (\$74.5M), opening day (\$168M), [Monday (\$47M), and Tuesday (\$42M)](https://deadline.com/2026/08/box-office-spider-man-brand-new-day-tuesday-record-1237018454/). Its domestic cume stood at \$449 million after five days, the fastest film ever to \$400 million, and it [crossed \$1 billion globally in six days](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-new-day-billion-global-box-office-1236663765/), second only to *Endgame*.
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 45087, "question_id": 45237}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the cumulative domestic box office gross of *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* through August 30, 2026, according to [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2299756545/), as shown on the site on or after September 3, 2026.
## Fine Print
The box office will be calculated by summing the daily values through August 30.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45087) which opened on 2026-08-08 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [750000000, 1050000000] (units: $).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day's domestic cume through August 30, 2026 (31 days of release) exceed $850 million? — Sets the lower bound of the plausible range: a $449M 5-day start with historically weak legs (Endgame-like ~2.3x opening
- (w=0.30) Will the domestic cume through August 30, 2026 exceed $950 million? — Central scenario: normal-to-good superhero legs (2.6-2.8x opening weekend by day 31) puts the total near $930-1.0B; this
- (w=0.20) Will the domestic cume through August 30, 2026 exceed $1.05 billion (i.e., a No Way Home-style multiplier of 3x+)? — Upper-tail scenario requiring exceptional legs; determines the right tail of the numeric distribution and whether a dome
- (w=0.20) Will the film's second-weekend domestic drop be less than 58% (i.e., second weekend above ~$151M)? — The second weekend (Aug 7-9), reported right around the question's open, is the single most informative predictor of the
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Second weekend grossed approximately $143M, an ~60% decline from the $360M opening, per Variety/Deadline/THR estimates published Aug 7-8, 2026.
2. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Second Friday grossed $43M from 4,487 theaters, the basis for the $143M weekend projection, short of the ~$151M needed for a sub-58% drop.
3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Domestic cume reached $653M after 10 days, the best 10-day domestic start in history, with $510.8M through 9 days.
4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Weekday holds were record-setting: $47M Monday, $42M Tuesday, $29M second Thursday, indicating unusually strong midweek legs.
5. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using historical opening-weekend-to-day-31 multipliers gives median day-31 cume of $943M, with P(>$850M)=0.79, P(>$950M)=0.48, P(>$1.05B)=0.21.
6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Star Wars: The Force Awakens holds the all-time domestic record at $936.6M; a >$950M 31-day cume would break that record within one month.
7. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 62 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Historical day-31/day-10 ratios for comparable mega-blockbusters run roughly 1.29 (Endgame), 1.35 (Force Awakens), 1.43 (No Way Home), implying ~$840M-$935M from a $653M day-10 base.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No Way Home's 3x+ domestic multiplier came from a December holiday release; Brand New Day opened July 31 with late-August school returns compressing legs.
9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The film's ~60% second-weekend drop is closer to Endgame's -58.7% than No Way Home's -67.5% or Force Awakens' -39.9%.
10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Film crossed $1B worldwide in six days, second-fastest ever, and was fastest to $400M and $500M domestic (4 and 7 days).
11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Box Office Mojo's release page for the film returned only generic metadata; no confirmed daily grosses beyond media reports were retrieved.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $527.6K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $1.5M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.47, Volume: $669.9K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $98.3K
Information gaps:
- No actual (vs. estimated) second-weekend figure or days 11-14 daily grosses
- No data on competing August 2026 wide releases that could accelerate declines
- Missing explicit historical day-31 cume table for Endgame/NWH/TFA/Barbie
- No audience scores (CinemaScore/PostTrak/exit polls) to gauge word-of-mouth legs
Key uncertainties:
- Third/fourth weekend drop magnitude as US schools resume mid-to-late August
- Whether premium-format and IMAX runs get extended or reallocated
- Whether the $143M second weekend was an estimate later revised up or down
- Reliability of the Monte Carlo multiplier prior versus the observed -60% drop
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Second weekend grossed approximately $143M, an ~60% decline from the $360M opening, per Variety/Deadline/THR estimates published Aug 7-8, 2026.\n2. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Second Friday grossed $43M from 4,487 theaters, the basis for the $143M weekend projection, short of the ~$151M needed for a sub-58% drop.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Domestic cume reached $653M after 10 days, the best 10-day domestic start in history, with $510.8M through 9 days.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Weekday holds were record-setting: $47M Monday, $42M Tuesday, $29M second Thursday, indicating unusually strong midweek legs.\n5. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using historical opening-weekend-to-day-31 multipliers gives median day-31 cume of $943M, with P(\u003e$850M)=0.79, P(\u003e$950M)=0.48, P(\u003e$1.05B)=0.21.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Star Wars: The Force Awakens holds the all-time domestic record at $936.6M; a \u003e$950M 31-day cume would break that record within one month.\n7. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 62 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Historical day-31/day-10 ratios for comparable mega-blockbusters run roughly 1.29 (Endgame), 1.35 (Force Awakens), 1.43 (No Way Home), implying ~$840M-$935M from a $653M day-10 base.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No Way Home\u0027s 3x+ domestic multiplier came from a December holiday release; Brand New Day opened July 31 with late-August school returns compressing legs.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The film\u0027s ~60% second-weekend drop is closer to Endgame\u0027s -58.7% than No Way Home\u0027s -67.5% or Force Awakens\u0027 -39.9%.\n10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Film crossed $1B worldwide in six days, second-fastest ever, and was fastest to $400M and $500M domestic (4 and 7 days).\n11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Box Office Mojo\u0027s release page for the film returned only generic metadata; no confirmed daily grosses beyond media reports were retrieved.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $527.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $1.5M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.47, Volume: $669.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $98.3K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual (vs. estimated) second-weekend figure or days 11-14 daily grosses\n - No data on competing August 2026 wide releases that could accelerate declines\n - Missing explicit historical day-31 cume table for Endgame/NWH/TFA/Barbie\n - No audience scores (CinemaScore/PostTrak/exit polls) to gauge word-of-mouth legs\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Third/fourth weekend drop magnitude as US schools resume mid-to-late August\n - Whether premium-format and IMAX runs get extended or reallocated\n - Whether the $143M second weekend was an estimate later revised up or down\n - Reliability of the Monte Carlo multiplier prior versus the observed -60% drop",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nHow much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\n*Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton and starring Tom Holland, opened in North American theaters on July 31, 2026. It set the record for the [biggest domestic opening weekend of all time with \\$360 million](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/spider-man-brand-new-day-box-office-opening-record-avengers-endgame-1236826336/), surpassing *Avengers: Endgame*\u0027s \\$357.1 million (2019, unadjusted), along with records for previews (\\$74.5M), opening day (\\$168M), [Monday (\\$47M), and Tuesday (\\$42M)](https://deadline.com/2026/08/box-office-spider-man-brand-new-day-tuesday-record-1237018454/). Its domestic cume stood at \\$449 million after five days, the fastest film ever to \\$400 million, and it [crossed \\$1 billion globally in six days](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-new-day-billion-global-box-office-1236663765/), second only to *Endgame*.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 45087, \"question_id\": 45237}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative domestic box office gross of *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* through August 30, 2026, according to [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2299756545/), as shown on the site on or after September 3, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nThe box office will be calculated by summing the daily values through August 30.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45087) which opened on 2026-08-08 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [750000000, 1050000000] (units: $).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day\u0027s domestic cume through August 30, 2026 (31 days of release) exceed $850 million? \u2014 Sets the lower bound of the plausible range: a $449M 5-day start with historically weak legs (Endgame-like ~2.3x opening\n- (w=0.30) Will the domestic cume through August 30, 2026 exceed $950 million? \u2014 Central scenario: normal-to-good superhero legs (2.6-2.8x opening weekend by day 31) puts the total near $930-1.0B; this\n- (w=0.20) Will the domestic cume through August 30, 2026 exceed $1.05 billion (i.e., a No Way Home-style multiplier of 3x+)? \u2014 Upper-tail scenario requiring exceptional legs; determines the right tail of the numeric distribution and whether a dome\n- (w=0.20) Will the film\u0027s second-weekend domestic drop be less than 58% (i.e., second weekend above ~$151M)? \u2014 The second weekend (Aug 7-9), reported right around the question\u0027s open, is the single most informative predictor of the\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Second weekend grossed approximately $143M, an ~60% decline from the $360M opening, per Variety/Deadline/THR estimates published Aug 7-8, 2026.\n2. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Second Friday grossed $43M from 4,487 theaters, the basis for the $143M weekend projection, short of the ~$151M needed for a sub-58% drop.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Domestic cume reached $653M after 10 days, the best 10-day domestic start in history, with $510.8M through 9 days.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Weekday holds were record-setting: $47M Monday, $42M Tuesday, $29M second Thursday, indicating unusually strong midweek legs.\n5. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using historical opening-weekend-to-day-31 multipliers gives median day-31 cume of $943M, with P(\u003e$850M)=0.79, P(\u003e$950M)=0.48, P(\u003e$1.05B)=0.21.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Star Wars: The Force Awakens holds the all-time domestic record at $936.6M; a \u003e$950M 31-day cume would break that record within one month.\n7. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 62 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Historical day-31/day-10 ratios for comparable mega-blockbusters run roughly 1.29 (Endgame), 1.35 (Force Awakens), 1.43 (No Way Home), implying ~$840M-$935M from a $653M day-10 base.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No Way Home\u0027s 3x+ domestic multiplier came from a December holiday release; Brand New Day opened July 31 with late-August school returns compressing legs.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The film\u0027s ~60% second-weekend drop is closer to Endgame\u0027s -58.7% than No Way Home\u0027s -67.5% or Force Awakens\u0027 -39.9%.\n10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Film crossed $1B worldwide in six days, second-fastest ever, and was fastest to $400M and $500M domestic (4 and 7 days).\n11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Box Office Mojo\u0027s release page for the film returned only generic metadata; no confirmed daily grosses beyond media reports were retrieved.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $527.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $1.5M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.47, Volume: $669.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $98.3K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual (vs. estimated) second-weekend figure or days 11-14 daily grosses\n - No data on competing August 2026 wide releases that could accelerate declines\n - Missing explicit historical day-31 cume table for Endgame/NWH/TFA/Barbie\n - No audience scores (CinemaScore/PostTrak/exit polls) to gauge word-of-mouth legs\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Third/fourth weekend drop magnitude as US schools resume mid-to-late August\n - Whether premium-format and IMAX runs get extended or reallocated\n - Whether the $143M second weekend was an estimate later revised up or down\n - Reliability of the Monte Carlo multiplier prior versus the observed -60% drop\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 899000000.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 821000000.0,
"0.25": 861000000.0,
"0.5": 899000000.0,
"0.75": 938500000.0,
"0.9": 987500000.0
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves on the Aug 30, 2026 cume (day 31 of release), roughly three weeks after the information cutoff (~Aug 9-10). (b) Status quo: cume was $653M after 10 days (through Sun Aug 9), the best 10-day start ever; if the film stopped earning it would resolve at $653M, below the range floor, so the outcome is entirely about the next 21 days. (c) Trend extrapolation: second weekend $143M (-60%, similar to Endgame\u0027s -58.7%); applying typical week-3/4/5 patterns (Mon-Thu \u2248 40-45% of prior weekend, weekend drops ~45%) gives ~$139M in week 3, ~$78M week 4, ~$41M for Aug 24-30, i.e. ~$905-915M by day 31. (d) Base rates: day-31/day-10 ratios of 1.29 (Endgame), 1.35 (Force Awakens), 1.43 (No Way Home) imply $840M-$935M from a $653M day-10 base; the OW-multiplier Monte Carlo (median $943M) is noisier and likely too high since it ignores the confirmed -60% second-weekend drop. (e) Low scenario (~p10): schools return mid-August, weekend drops steepen to 50-55%, PLF screens reallocated to new August releases, week-5 fade sharp \u2192 ~$825-835M. (f) High scenario (~p90): word-of-mouth is exceptional (the record Monday/Tuesday holds hint at this), a soft August competitive slate lets weekend drops settle near 35-40%, and IMAX runs are extended \u2192 ~$975-1,000M, i.e. shattering the $936.6M all-time domestic record within a month. Anchoring on the day-10 figure (much more informative than opening-weekend multipliers) with a median around $895-900M, and widening tails for estimate revisions and unknown competition."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "culture",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Build an empirical distribution of the day-31 domestic cume by applying historical opening-weekend-to-day-31 multipliers (calibrated by the observed weekday holds and the Aug 7-9 second weekend) to the known $360M opening, then convert the threshold sub-question probabilities into a numeric CDF, weighting the second-weekend-legs sub-question as the key calibrator.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day\u0027s domestic cume through August 30, 2026 (31 days of release) exceed $850 million?",
"rationale": "Sets the lower bound of the plausible range: a $449M 5-day start with historically weak legs (Endgame-like ~2.3x opening-weekend multiplier at day 31) would still land near $830-870M, so this is the near-floor scenario.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the domestic cume through August 30, 2026 exceed $950 million?",
"rationale": "Central scenario: normal-to-good superhero legs (2.6-2.8x opening weekend by day 31) puts the total near $930-1.0B; this sub-question pins the median.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the domestic cume through August 30, 2026 exceed $1.05 billion (i.e., a No Way Home-style multiplier of 3x+)?",
"rationale": "Upper-tail scenario requiring exceptional legs; determines the right tail of the numeric distribution and whether a domestic record pace continues.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the film\u0027s second-weekend domestic drop be less than 58% (i.e., second weekend above ~$151M)?",
"rationale": "The second weekend (Aug 7-9), reported right around the question\u0027s open, is the single most informative predictor of the remaining 3+ weeks of grosses and calibrates the multiplier used in sq1-sq3.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Spider-Man Brand New Day box office second weekend domestic",
"Spider-Man Brand New Day daily box office Box Office Mojo cume",
"Spider-Man Brand New Day domestic total August 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent reported daily and cumulative domestic box office figures for Spider-Man: Brand New Day (released July 31, 2026), especially weekday grosses in its first two weeks, the actual or projected second-weekend gross and percentage drop, and any analyst projections for its final domestic total. Cite Deadline, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Box Office Mojo.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Reference class: day-31 domestic cume as multiple of opening weekend for blockbusters\n# (Endgame 357.1 OW / ~815 by day31 ~2.28; No Way Home 260 OW / ~735 day31 ~2.83 (holiday);\n# Infinity War 257.7 / ~630 ~2.44; Force Awakens 248 / ~800 ~3.2 (holiday);\n# Barbie 162 / ~540 ~3.3; Top Gun Maverick 126 / ~465 ~3.7; Far From Home, Black Panther etc.)\nmults = np.array([2.28,2.83,2.44,3.20,2.55,2.60,2.35,2.90,2.70,2.45])\nOW=360.0\nsims=np.random.lognormal(np.log(2.62),0.13,200000)\ncume=OW*sims\nfor q in [5,10,25,50,75,90,95]:\n print(q, round(np.percentile(cume,q),1))\nfor t in [800,850,900,950,1000,1050,1100]:\n print(\u0027P(\u003e\u0027,t,\u0027)=\u0027,round((cume\u003et).mean(),3))\n",
"description": "Monte Carlo of day-31 domestic cume using historical opening-weekend-to-day-31 multipliers for mega-blockbusters, anchored on the $360M opening weekend and $449M 5-day cume."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Avengers: Endgame box office",
"Spider-Man: No Way Home box office",
"List of highest-grossing openings for films"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-09T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\n*Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton and starring Tom Holland, opened in North American theaters on July 31, 2026. It set the record for the [biggest domestic opening weekend of all time with \\$360 million](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/spider-man-brand-new-day-box-office-opening-record-avengers-endgame-1236826336/), surpassing *Avengers: Endgame*\u0027s \\$357.1 million (2019, unadjusted), along with records for previews (\\$74.5M), opening day (\\$168M), [Monday (\\$47M), and Tuesday (\\$42M)](https://deadline.com/2026/08/box-office-spider-man-brand-new-day-tuesday-record-1237018454/). Its domestic cume stood at \\$449 million after five days, the fastest film ever to \\$400 million, and it [crossed \\$1 billion globally in six days](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-new-day-billion-global-box-office-1236663765/), second only to *Endgame*.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 45087, \"question_id\": 45237}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative domestic box office gross of *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* through August 30, 2026, according to [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2299756545/), as shown on the site on or after September 3, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nThe box office will be calculated by summing the daily values through August 30.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45087) which opened on 2026-08-08 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 1050000000,
"q_min": 750000000,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "How much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?",
"units": "$"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $527.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $1.5M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.47, Volume: $669.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $98.3K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 28.87,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 29.04,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "13 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.3,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of day-31 domestic cume using historical opening",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.75,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Second weekend grossed approximately $143M, an ~60% decline from the $360M opening, per Variety/Deadline/THR estimates published Aug 7-8, 2026.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Second Friday grossed $43M from 4,487 theaters, the basis for the $143M weekend projection, short of the ~$151M needed for a sub-58% drop.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Domestic cume reached $653M after 10 days, the best 10-day domestic start in history, with $510.8M through 9 days.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Weekday holds were record-setting: $47M Monday, $42M Tuesday, $29M second Thursday, indicating unusually strong midweek legs.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo using historical opening-weekend-to-day-31 multipliers gives median day-31 cume of $943M, with P(\u003e$850M)=0.79, P(\u003e$950M)=0.48, P(\u003e$1.05B)=0.21.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Star Wars: The Force Awakens holds the all-time domestic record at $936.6M; a \u003e$950M 31-day cume would break that record within one month.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Historical day-31/day-10 ratios for comparable mega-blockbusters run roughly 1.29 (Endgame), 1.35 (Force Awakens), 1.43 (No Way Home), implying ~$840M-$935M from a $653M day-10 base.",
"credibility": 62,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "No Way Home\u0027s 3x+ domestic multiplier came from a December holiday release; Brand New Day opened July 31 with late-August school returns compressing legs.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "The film\u0027s ~60% second-weekend drop is closer to Endgame\u0027s -58.7% than No Way Home\u0027s -67.5% or Force Awakens\u0027 -39.9%.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Film crossed $1B worldwide in six days, second-fastest ever, and was fastest to $400M and $500M domestic (4 and 7 days).",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Box Office Mojo\u0027s release page for the film returned only generic metadata; no confirmed daily grosses beyond media reports were retrieved.",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No actual (vs. estimated) second-weekend figure or days 11-14 daily grosses",
"No data on competing August 2026 wide releases that could accelerate declines",
"Missing explicit historical day-31 cume table for Endgame/NWH/TFA/Barbie",
"No audience scores (CinemaScore/PostTrak/exit polls) to gauge word-of-mouth legs"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Third/fourth weekend drop magnitude as US schools resume mid-to-late August",
"Whether premium-format and IMAX runs get extended or reallocated",
"Whether the $143M second weekend was an estimate later revised up or down",
"Reliability of the Monte Carlo multiplier prior versus the observed -60% drop"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 119.59,
"plan": 35.58,
"research": 29.04,
"synthesis": 36.94
}
}