Anchor on the August 2025 Foreign Originating level and historical August seasonality, then apply a YoY growth rate whose distribution is set by recent 2026 monthly momentum, policy/macro headwinds, and any World Cup spillover; the weighted sub-question probabilities shift the central YoY estimate up or down and widen the interval.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $280.2K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $1.4M - "Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $373.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.10, Volume: $149.8K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $127.3K - "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.37, Volume: $132.6K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.66, Volume: $588.4K - "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $81.4K
1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] Foreign tourism to the US fell by about 4 million visitors in 2025, the steepest non-pandemic decline in two decades, costing over $8 billion. 2. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The scaffolded trend/seasonal Monte Carlo model returned no usable output, so no quantitative August 2026 distribution was generated from historical I-92 data. 3. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Research surfaced no 2026 monthly I-92 or Commerce Department arrivals data showing whether YoY declines continued into Feb–May 2026. 4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting frames the tourism decline as a completed 2025 story driven by presidential rhetoric and policy confusion, without citing a 2026 rebound. 5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting describes an ongoing unpredictable immigration environment restricting international students' US work authorization prospects. 6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran starting March 2026, with Netanyahu saying in May the war was not over. 7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] By July 2026 most economists judged the immediate US recession threat to have passed, though inflation and geopolitical risks persisted. 8. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No evidence was found of easing measures such as visa-fee rollbacks, travel-ban removals, or a resolution of the Canadian consumer boycott. 9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 World Cup ran June through mid-July across US, Canada and Mexico and was described by CNN as record-breaking in attendance/scale. 10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] The tournament concluded around July 19, 2026, meaning the bulk of World Cup-driven inbound travel falls in June–July rather than August. 11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | RECENT] Host-city retrospectives (Kansas City, Toronto) report successful, high-turnout events with strong international fan presence and 'elevated' ticket prices. 12. [sq1 | claude_news | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No news item was surfaced reporting actual 2026 summer inbound air arrival figures or airline transatlantic booking trends for August 2026. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $280.2K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $1.4M - "Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $373.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.10, Volume: $149.8K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $127.3K - "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.37, Volume: $132.6K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.66, Volume: $588.4K - "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $81.4K Information gaps: - No actual August 2025 Foreign Originating I-92 baseline value retrieved - No 2026 monthly I-92 data (Jan–Jun) to gauge YoY momentum - No base rate for August seasonality or historical August-to-August growth distribution - No airline capacity/booking or NTTO overseas-arrivals data for summer 2026 Key uncertainties: - Magnitude and sign of 2026 YoY trend after the 2025 slump (possible base-effect rebound) - Whether World Cup visitors extended stays or displaced normal August tourists - Iran conflict effects on long-haul travel demand and fuel/fares - Canada-origin travel, the largest single foreign-origin bloc, and boycott persistence
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in August 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
CNN: [Staggering dip in US tourism is a troubling sign for the future](https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/travel/analysis-tourism-fewer-international-visitors-2025-vis)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "b7cc498006a43bd4", "sheet_id": "154"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of Foreign Originating air passengers reported by the [Monthly I-92 Data](https://www.trade.gov/us-international-air-travel-statistics-i-92-data) of the International Air Travel Statistics program for August 2026.
## Fine Print
Click on "Monthly Data." Resolution amount is the number of "Foreign Originating" for August 2026.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [4000000, 6000000] (units: passengers).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will the August 2026 'Foreign Originating' I-92 count come in ABOVE the August 2025 value (i.e., positive year-over-year growth)? — The single biggest determinant of the level is the YoY change applied to the known August 2025 base; 2025 saw sustained
- (w=0.25) Will the monthly YoY declines in foreign-originating air arrivals observed through 2025 still be negative in the most recent reported months of 2026 (e.g., Feb–May 2026)? — Recent monthly momentum in the same series is the best short-horizon predictor of August 2026; persistence of decline im
- (w=0.20) Will US policy/macro conditions hostile to inbound travel (new travel bans/visa restrictions, ESTA/visa fee hikes, Canada boycott, strong USD) remain in force through summer 2026 without material easing? — Policy shocks and the Canadian/Mexican/European pullback have been the main causes of the 2025-26 dip; their persistence
- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup (June–July 2026, US co-hosted) and related travel produce a measurable positive spillover into August 2026 inbound arrivals relative to the underlying trend? — A mega-event year can lift summer inbound travel, but August falls just after the tournament; the size of any residual b
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] Foreign tourism to the US fell by about 4 million visitors in 2025, the steepest non-pandemic decline in two decades, costing over $8 billion.
2. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The scaffolded trend/seasonal Monte Carlo model returned no usable output, so no quantitative August 2026 distribution was generated from historical I-92 data.
3. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Research surfaced no 2026 monthly I-92 or Commerce Department arrivals data showing whether YoY declines continued into Feb–May 2026.
4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting frames the tourism decline as a completed 2025 story driven by presidential rhetoric and policy confusion, without citing a 2026 rebound.
5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting describes an ongoing unpredictable immigration environment restricting international students' US work authorization prospects.
6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran starting March 2026, with Netanyahu saying in May the war was not over.
7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] By July 2026 most economists judged the immediate US recession threat to have passed, though inflation and geopolitical risks persisted.
8. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No evidence was found of easing measures such as visa-fee rollbacks, travel-ban removals, or a resolution of the Canadian consumer boycott.
9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 World Cup ran June through mid-July across US, Canada and Mexico and was described by CNN as record-breaking in attendance/scale.
10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] The tournament concluded around July 19, 2026, meaning the bulk of World Cup-driven inbound travel falls in June–July rather than August.
11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | RECENT] Host-city retrospectives (Kansas City, Toronto) report successful, high-turnout events with strong international fan presence and 'elevated' ticket prices.
12. [sq1 | claude_news | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No news item was surfaced reporting actual 2026 summer inbound air arrival figures or airline transatlantic booking trends for August 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $280.2K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $1.4M
- "Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $373.9K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.10, Volume: $149.8K
- "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $127.3K
- "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.37, Volume: $132.6K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.66, Volume: $588.4K
- "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $81.4K
Information gaps:
- No actual August 2025 Foreign Originating I-92 baseline value retrieved
- No 2026 monthly I-92 data (Jan–Jun) to gauge YoY momentum
- No base rate for August seasonality or historical August-to-August growth distribution
- No airline capacity/booking or NTTO overseas-arrivals data for summer 2026
Key uncertainties:
- Magnitude and sign of 2026 YoY trend after the 2025 slump (possible base-effect rebound)
- Whether World Cup visitors extended stays or displaced normal August tourists
- Iran conflict effects on long-haul travel demand and fuel/fares
- Canada-origin travel, the largest single foreign-origin bloc, and boycott persistence
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] Foreign tourism to the US fell by about 4 million visitors in 2025, the steepest non-pandemic decline in two decades, costing over $8 billion.\n2. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The scaffolded trend/seasonal Monte Carlo model returned no usable output, so no quantitative August 2026 distribution was generated from historical I-92 data.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Research surfaced no 2026 monthly I-92 or Commerce Department arrivals data showing whether YoY declines continued into Feb\u2013May 2026.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting frames the tourism decline as a completed 2025 story driven by presidential rhetoric and policy confusion, without citing a 2026 rebound.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting describes an ongoing unpredictable immigration environment restricting international students\u0027 US work authorization prospects.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran starting March 2026, with Netanyahu saying in May the war was not over.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] By July 2026 most economists judged the immediate US recession threat to have passed, though inflation and geopolitical risks persisted.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No evidence was found of easing measures such as visa-fee rollbacks, travel-ban removals, or a resolution of the Canadian consumer boycott.\n9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 World Cup ran June through mid-July across US, Canada and Mexico and was described by CNN as record-breaking in attendance/scale.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] The tournament concluded around July 19, 2026, meaning the bulk of World Cup-driven inbound travel falls in June\u2013July rather than August.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | RECENT] Host-city retrospectives (Kansas City, Toronto) report successful, high-turnout events with strong international fan presence and \u0027elevated\u0027 ticket prices.\n12. [sq1 | claude_news | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No news item was surfaced reporting actual 2026 summer inbound air arrival figures or airline transatlantic booking trends for August 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $280.2K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $1.4M\n- \"Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $373.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.10, Volume: $149.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $127.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.37, Volume: $132.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.66, Volume: $588.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.62, Volume: $81.4K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual August 2025 Foreign Originating I-92 baseline value retrieved\n - No 2026 monthly I-92 data (Jan\u2013Jun) to gauge YoY momentum\n - No base rate for August seasonality or historical August-to-August growth distribution\n - No airline capacity/booking or NTTO overseas-arrivals data for summer 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Magnitude and sign of 2026 YoY trend after the 2025 slump (possible base-effect rebound)\n - Whether World Cup visitors extended stays or displaced normal August tourists\n - Iran conflict effects on long-haul travel demand and fuel/fares\n - Canada-origin travel, the largest single foreign-origin bloc, and boycott persistence",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nHow many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in August 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nCNN: [Staggering dip in US tourism is a troubling sign for the future](https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/travel/analysis-tourism-fewer-international-visitors-2025-vis)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"b7cc498006a43bd4\", \"sheet_id\": \"154\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of Foreign Originating air passengers reported by the [Monthly I-92 Data](https://www.trade.gov/us-international-air-travel-statistics-i-92-data) of the International Air Travel Statistics program for August 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nClick on \"Monthly Data.\" Resolution amount is the number of \"Foreign Originating\" for August 2026.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [4000000, 6000000] (units: passengers).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will the August 2026 \u0027Foreign Originating\u0027 I-92 count come in ABOVE the August 2025 value (i.e., positive year-over-year growth)? \u2014 The single biggest determinant of the level is the YoY change applied to the known August 2025 base; 2025 saw sustained \n- (w=0.25) Will the monthly YoY declines in foreign-originating air arrivals observed through 2025 still be negative in the most recent reported months of 2026 (e.g., Feb\u2013May 2026)? \u2014 Recent monthly momentum in the same series is the best short-horizon predictor of August 2026; persistence of decline im\n- (w=0.20) Will US policy/macro conditions hostile to inbound travel (new travel bans/visa restrictions, ESTA/visa fee hikes, Canada boycott, strong USD) remain in force through summer 2026 without material easing? \u2014 Policy shocks and the Canadian/Mexican/European pullback have been the main causes of the 2025-26 dip; their persistence\n- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup (June\u2013July 2026, US co-hosted) and related travel produce a measurable positive spillover into August 2026 inbound arrivals relative to the underlying trend? \u2014 A mega-event year can lift summer inbound travel, but August falls just after the tournament; the size of any residual b\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] Foreign tourism to the US fell by about 4 million visitors in 2025, the steepest non-pandemic decline in two decades, costing over $8 billion.\n2. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The scaffolded trend/seasonal Monte Carlo model returned no usable output, so no quantitative August 2026 distribution was generated from historical I-92 data.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Research surfaced no 2026 monthly I-92 or Commerce Department arrivals data showing whether YoY declines continued into Feb\u2013May 2026.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting frames the tourism decline as a completed 2025 story driven by presidential rhetoric and policy confusion, without citing a 2026 rebound.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting describes an ongoing unpredictable immigration environment restricting international students\u0027 US work authorization prospects.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran starting March 2026, with Netanyahu saying in May the war was not over.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] By July 2026 most economists judged the immediate US recession threat to have passed, though inflation and geopolitical risks persisted.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No evidence was found of easing measures such as visa-fee rollbacks, travel-ban removals, or a resolution of the Canadian consumer boycott.\n9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 World Cup ran June through mid-July across US, Canada and Mexico and was described by CNN as record-breaking in attendance/scale.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] The tournament concluded around July 19, 2026, meaning the bulk of World Cup-driven inbound travel falls in June\u2013July rather than August.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | RECENT] Host-city retrospectives (Kansas City, Toronto) report successful, high-turnout events with strong international fan presence and \u0027elevated\u0027 ticket prices.\n12. [sq1 | claude_news | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No news item was surfaced reporting actual 2026 summer inbound air arrival figures or airline transatlantic booking trends for August 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $280.2K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $1.4M\n- \"Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $373.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.10, Volume: $149.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $127.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.37, Volume: $132.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.66, Volume: $588.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.62, Volume: $81.4K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual August 2025 Foreign Originating I-92 baseline value retrieved\n - No 2026 monthly I-92 data (Jan\u2013Jun) to gauge YoY momentum\n - No base rate for August seasonality or historical August-to-August growth distribution\n - No airline capacity/booking or NTTO overseas-arrivals data for summer 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Magnitude and sign of 2026 YoY trend after the 2025 slump (possible base-effect rebound)\n - Whether World Cup visitors extended stays or displaced normal August tourists\n - Iran conflict effects on long-haul travel demand and fuel/fares\n - Canada-origin travel, the largest single foreign-origin bloc, and boycott persistence\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 5030000.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 4475000.0,
"0.25": 4775000.0,
"0.5": 5030000.0,
"0.75": 5285000.0,
"0.9": 5595000.0
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves on I-92 data for August 2026, published with a ~2-month lag; the month itself is essentially now/imminent, so most of the outcome is already determined by summer 2026 booking patterns. (b) Status quo: the August 2025 \u0027Foreign Originating\u0027 figure appears to be roughly 5.0\u20135.2 million (consistent with the question\u0027s 4\u20136M range being centered on the recent value: ~40M overseas arrivals/yr plus Canada/Mexico air, with an August seasonal peak ~1.2x the monthly average, discounted for 2025\u0027s slump). (c) Current trend: 2025 saw a sustained 3\u20136% YoY decline in foreign air arrivals (a ~4M drop in total visitors including land), with no reported 2026 rebound as of May\u2013July 2026 reporting; extrapolating a flat-to-modestly-negative trend gives roughly 4.85\u20135.05M. (d) No market or expert point forecast exists for this series; base rates for August-to-August growth in a non-shock year are roughly \u00b15%, and the biggest anchor is simply last August\u0027s level. (e) Low scenario (~p10): the Iran conflict/blockade persists into August, raising fares and disrupting Gulf-carrier and some transatlantic long-haul; continued visa fee hikes, travel bans and the Canadian boycott bite; post-World-Cup demand air-pocket as August travelers were pulled forward into June\u2013July \u2014 a 7\u201310% YoY decline to ~4.5M. (f) High scenario (~p90): the depressed 2025 base creates easy comps, a weaker dollar boosts inbound value, World Cup visitors extend stays or generate a halo effect, and any de-escalation restores long-haul demand \u2014 a 6\u20138% gain to ~5.5M. I center just below the assumed status-quo level because momentum and policy remain negative and August sits after the World Cup, while keeping wide tails to absorb my uncertainty about the exact 2025 base and about geopolitical shocks."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the August 2025 Foreign Originating level and historical August seasonality, then apply a YoY growth rate whose distribution is set by recent 2026 monthly momentum, policy/macro headwinds, and any World Cup spillover; the weighted sub-question probabilities shift the central YoY estimate up or down and widen the interval.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the August 2026 \u0027Foreign Originating\u0027 I-92 count come in ABOVE the August 2025 value (i.e., positive year-over-year growth)?",
"rationale": "The single biggest determinant of the level is the YoY change applied to the known August 2025 base; 2025 saw sustained declines in foreign arrivals.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the monthly YoY declines in foreign-originating air arrivals observed through 2025 still be negative in the most recent reported months of 2026 (e.g., Feb\u2013May 2026)?",
"rationale": "Recent monthly momentum in the same series is the best short-horizon predictor of August 2026; persistence of decline implies a lower level.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will US policy/macro conditions hostile to inbound travel (new travel bans/visa restrictions, ESTA/visa fee hikes, Canada boycott, strong USD) remain in force through summer 2026 without material easing?",
"rationale": "Policy shocks and the Canadian/Mexican/European pullback have been the main causes of the 2025-26 dip; their persistence determines whether the shortfall widens or narrows.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup (June\u2013July 2026, US co-hosted) and related travel produce a measurable positive spillover into August 2026 inbound arrivals relative to the underlying trend?",
"rationale": "A mega-event year can lift summer inbound travel, but August falls just after the tournament; the size of any residual boost (or post-event hangover) shifts the August level.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the actual monthly \u0027Foreign Originating\u0027 air passenger counts from the ITA/Trade.gov Monthly I-92 US International Air Travel Statistics for as many months as possible: August 2019, August 2022, August 2023, August 2024, August 2025, and all available 2025 and 2026 monthly values. Also find reported year-over-year percentage changes in international/overseas visitor arrivals to the US in late 2025 and early-to-mid 2026, and NTTO forecasts for 2026 inbound travel.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in August 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"international visitors to the United States decline 2026 arrivals data",
"US inbound tourism forecast 2026 World Cup visitors",
"Canada travel boycott US visits year-over-year 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 60,
"search_text": "exports of services travel United States international visitors",
"series_ids": [
"DTWEXBGS"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Enter known August I-92 Foreign Originating values (fill from research) and fit\n# a level + YoY-growth model; produce a predictive distribution for Aug 2026.\n# Example scaffold: aug = {2015:..., 2016:..., 2019:..., 2022:..., 2023:..., 2024:..., 2025:...}\n# Compute YoY growth distribution excluding COVID years, apply Monte Carlo to Aug 2025 base,\n# and report 10/25/50/75/90 percentiles.\nprint(\u0027scaffold\u0027)",
"description": "Fit trend/seasonal model to historical August Foreign Originating counts and Monte Carlo the YoY growth to produce percentiles for August 2026."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-08T18:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nCNN: [Staggering dip in US tourism is a troubling sign for the future](https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/travel/analysis-tourism-fewer-international-visitors-2025-vis)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"b7cc498006a43bd4\", \"sheet_id\": \"154\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of Foreign Originating air passengers reported by the [Monthly I-92 Data](https://www.trade.gov/us-international-air-travel-statistics-i-92-data) of the International Air Travel Statistics program for August 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nClick on \"Monthly Data.\" Resolution amount is the number of \"Foreign Originating\" for August 2026.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 6000000,
"q_min": 4000000,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in August 2026?",
"units": "passengers"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $280.2K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $1.4M\n- \"Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $373.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.10, Volume: $149.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $127.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.37, Volume: $132.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.66, Volume: $588.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.62, Volume: $81.4K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 34.57,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "16 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 3.28,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "26 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 19.38,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "1 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.27,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Fit trend/seasonal model to historical August Foreign Origin",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Foreign tourism to the US fell by about 4 million visitors in 2025, the steepest non-pandemic decline in two decades, costing over $8 billion.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The scaffolded trend/seasonal Monte Carlo model returned no usable output, so no quantitative August 2026 distribution was generated from historical I-92 data.",
"credibility": 20,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Research surfaced no 2026 monthly I-92 or Commerce Department arrivals data showing whether YoY declines continued into Feb\u2013May 2026.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "May 2026 reporting frames the tourism decline as a completed 2025 story driven by presidential rhetoric and policy confusion, without citing a 2026 rebound.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "May 2026 reporting describes an ongoing unpredictable immigration environment restricting international students\u0027 US work authorization prospects.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran starting March 2026, with Netanyahu saying in May the war was not over.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "By July 2026 most economists judged the immediate US recession threat to have passed, though inflation and geopolitical risks persisted.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "No evidence was found of easing measures such as visa-fee rollbacks, travel-ban removals, or a resolution of the Canadian consumer boycott.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "The 2026 World Cup ran June through mid-July across US, Canada and Mexico and was described by CNN as record-breaking in attendance/scale.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "The tournament concluded around July 19, 2026, meaning the bulk of World Cup-driven inbound travel falls in June\u2013July rather than August.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Host-city retrospectives (Kansas City, Toronto) report successful, high-turnout events with strong international fan presence and \u0027elevated\u0027 ticket prices.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "No news item was surfaced reporting actual 2026 summer inbound air arrival figures or airline transatlantic booking trends for August 2026.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "claude_news",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No actual August 2025 Foreign Originating I-92 baseline value retrieved",
"No 2026 monthly I-92 data (Jan\u2013Jun) to gauge YoY momentum",
"No base rate for August seasonality or historical August-to-August growth distribution",
"No airline capacity/booking or NTTO overseas-arrivals data for summer 2026"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Magnitude and sign of 2026 YoY trend after the 2025 slump (possible base-effect rebound)",
"Whether World Cup visitors extended stays or displaced normal August tourists",
"Iran conflict effects on long-haul travel demand and fuel/fares",
"Canada-origin travel, the largest single foreign-origin bloc, and boycott persistence"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 86.65,
"plan": 30.64,
"research": 34.57,
"synthesis": 27.74
}
}