What will be the highest grossing movie of 2026 as of September 1, 2026?

## Cross-Market Signals

### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $5.0M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.34, Volume: $3.9M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $4.7M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.2M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.0M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.11, Volume: $2.4M
- "Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $479.3K
- "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $2.0M
- "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $5.2M
- "Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?" → Yes: 0.54, Volume: $275.5K

1. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to $360M domestic in Monday actuals (July 31–Aug 2), surpassing Avengers: Endgame's $357.1M record.
2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man daily breakdown ($169.8M Fri/previews, $101.5M Sat, $88.7M Sun) shows Saturday/Sunday holds comparable to Endgame's, implying a normal-to-good multiplier.
3. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation gave medians of $472M (TS5), $297M (Odyssey), $416M (Spider-Man), apparently using a ~$200M Spider-Man opening rather than the actual $360M.
4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5 had a running domestic cume of $464.6M in early August, after $14.8M in weekend five and a $1.022B worldwide total.
5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5's weekend-five gross of $14.8M implies remaining August earnings of only roughly $30–45M, capping it near $500M by September 1.
6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey earned $405.3M domestic in 18 days ($123.5M opening, $90.0M second weekend, ~$51.1M third weekend), passing $400M by August 3.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A model-based projection puts The Odyssey's final domestic total at $533M–$609M (90% range $510M–$657M), above Toy Story 5's likely final.
8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey's holds have been excellent (-27% second weekend, -43% third), and it will have ~6.5 weeks of release by September 1.
9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man releases July 31, giving it roughly 4.5 weekends before September 1; a record $360M opening with even a 1.7x multiplier implies $600M+ by then.
10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man and The Odyssey compete for the same August large-format/IMAX screens and adult audiences, which could compress each film's holds.
11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No other 2026 release is identified in reporting as near the $450M+ domestic level; three films had crossed $1B worldwide, with Toy Story 5 the highest.
12. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of the question's opening (Aug 4), Toy Story 5 still led the 2026 domestic chart at ~$465M versus The Odyssey's ~$405M.

## Cross-Market Signals

### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $5.0M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.34, Volume: $3.9M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $4.7M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.2M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.0M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.11, Volume: $2.4M
- "Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $479.3K
- "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $2.0M
- "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $5.2M
- "Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?" → Yes: 0.54, Volume: $275.5K

Information gaps:
  - No post-opening weekday/second-weekend actuals for Spider-Man: Brand New Day
  - No confirmed Box Office Mojo year-to-date domestic ranking snapshot for August 2026
  - Missing base rate: typical domestic multiplier for $300M+ superhero openings (Endgame ~2.33x)
  - No data on other 2026 releases' domestic totals beyond the top three

Key uncertainties:
  - Spider-Man's total multiplier (frontloaded record opening vs. strong legs)
  - The Odyssey's August decay rate against Spider-Man competition
  - Whether Toy Story 5 gets a Labor Day/re-release bump
  - Exact Box Office Mojo cutoff/reporting timing on September 1

You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.

## Question
What will be the highest grossing movie of 2026 as of September 1, 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
[Toy Story 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toy_Story_5) is the fifth installment in the popular Toy Story series. It released on June 19, 2026 to massive success, becoming the highest grossing movie of 2026 so far.

[The Odyssey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Odyssey_\(2026_film\)) is an adaptation of Homer's ancient Greek epic poem of the same name. Following its release on July 17, 2026, the film has become one of the most popular movies of 2026. Due to its recent release, it is expected that The Odyssey will continue to see substantial increases in revenue, potentially overtaking Toy Story 5.

[Spider-Man: Brand New Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man%3A_Brand_New_Day) is a superhero film based on the long-running Spider-Man character. Scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, the film is [widely expected](https://deadline.com/2026/07/spider-man-brand-new-day-box-office-opening-projection-1236978377/) to be one the highest grossing movies of 2026, with opening predictions approaching the \$200M range.

`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44966, "question_id": 45112}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the movie with the highest gross domestic box office revenue during 2026 according to [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/), when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.

## Fine Print
If Box Office Mojo's data is not available or is found to be unreliable, another credible source may be used.

***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44966) which opened on 2026-08-04 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.

## Options
  - Toy Story 5
  - The Odyssey
  - Spider-Man: Brand New Day
  - Another movie

## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will Toy Story 5 still hold the top domestic 2026 gross on Box Office Mojo when checked on/after September 1, 2026?  — Toy Story 5 is the current leader with a ~6-week head start; incumbency matters since it will be near its final total by
- (w=0.30) Will The Odyssey's cumulative domestic gross exceed Toy Story 5's by September 1, 2026?  — The Odyssey released July 17 with strong momentum and is the most likely challenger with ~6.5 weeks of run before the ch
- (w=0.30) Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day's domestic gross exceed both Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey by September 1, 2026?  — A ~$200M opening plus ~4.5 weeks of legs could plausibly reach $400M+, potentially topping both, but its shorter runway 
- (w=0.10) Will some movie other than these three (e.g., another 2026 tentpole) lead the domestic 2026 chart on September 1, 2026?  — Checks the residual/'other' option probability from earlier-2026 releases or sleeper hits.

## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to $360M domestic in Monday actuals (July 31–Aug 2), surpassing Avengers: Endgame's $357.1M record.
2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man daily breakdown ($169.8M Fri/previews, $101.5M Sat, $88.7M Sun) shows Saturday/Sunday holds comparable to Endgame's, implying a normal-to-good multiplier.
3. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation gave medians of $472M (TS5), $297M (Odyssey), $416M (Spider-Man), apparently using a ~$200M Spider-Man opening rather than the actual $360M.
4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5 had a running domestic cume of $464.6M in early August, after $14.8M in weekend five and a $1.022B worldwide total.
5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5's weekend-five gross of $14.8M implies remaining August earnings of only roughly $30–45M, capping it near $500M by September 1.
6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey earned $405.3M domestic in 18 days ($123.5M opening, $90.0M second weekend, ~$51.1M third weekend), passing $400M by August 3.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A model-based projection puts The Odyssey's final domestic total at $533M–$609M (90% range $510M–$657M), above Toy Story 5's likely final.
8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey's holds have been excellent (-27% second weekend, -43% third), and it will have ~6.5 weeks of release by September 1.
9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man releases July 31, giving it roughly 4.5 weekends before September 1; a record $360M opening with even a 1.7x multiplier implies $600M+ by then.
10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man and The Odyssey compete for the same August large-format/IMAX screens and adult audiences, which could compress each film's holds.
11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No other 2026 release is identified in reporting as near the $450M+ domestic level; three films had crossed $1B worldwide, with Toy Story 5 the highest.
12. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of the question's opening (Aug 4), Toy Story 5 still led the 2026 domestic chart at ~$465M versus The Odyssey's ~$405M.

## Cross-Market Signals

### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $5.0M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.34, Volume: $3.9M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $4.7M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.2M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.0M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.11, Volume: $2.4M
- "Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $479.3K
- "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $2.0M
- "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $5.2M
- "Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?" → Yes: 0.54, Volume: $275.5K

Information gaps:
  - No post-opening weekday/second-weekend actuals for Spider-Man: Brand New Day
  - No confirmed Box Office Mojo year-to-date domestic ranking snapshot for August 2026
  - Missing base rate: typical domestic multiplier for $300M+ superhero openings (Endgame ~2.33x)
  - No data on other 2026 releases' domestic totals beyond the top three

Key uncertainties:
  - Spider-Man's total multiplier (frontloaded record opening vs. strong legs)
  - The Odyssey's August decay rate against Spider-Man competition
  - Whether Toy Story 5 gets a Labor Day/re-release bump
  - Exact Box Office Mojo cutoff/reporting timing on September 1

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
  (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.

## Calibration guidance

- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
  "probabilities": {
    "Toy Story 5": <prob>,
        "The Odyssey": <prob>,
        "Spider-Man: Brand New Day": <prob>,
        "Another movie": <prob>
  }
}

Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).