Estimate each contender's cumulative domestic gross as of Sept 1, 2026 from reported actuals and typical decay curves, then convert to mutually exclusive win probabilities; the weighted average of the sub-question probabilities (normalized across options) yields the multiple-choice distribution.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $5.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.34, Volume: $3.9M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $4.7M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.0M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.11, Volume: $2.4M - "Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $479.3K - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $2.0M - "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $5.2M - "Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?" → Yes: 0.54, Volume: $275.5K
1. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to $360M domestic in Monday actuals (July 31–Aug 2), surpassing Avengers: Endgame's $357.1M record. 2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man daily breakdown ($169.8M Fri/previews, $101.5M Sat, $88.7M Sun) shows Saturday/Sunday holds comparable to Endgame's, implying a normal-to-good multiplier. 3. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation gave medians of $472M (TS5), $297M (Odyssey), $416M (Spider-Man), apparently using a ~$200M Spider-Man opening rather than the actual $360M. 4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5 had a running domestic cume of $464.6M in early August, after $14.8M in weekend five and a $1.022B worldwide total. 5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5's weekend-five gross of $14.8M implies remaining August earnings of only roughly $30–45M, capping it near $500M by September 1. 6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey earned $405.3M domestic in 18 days ($123.5M opening, $90.0M second weekend, ~$51.1M third weekend), passing $400M by August 3. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A model-based projection puts The Odyssey's final domestic total at $533M–$609M (90% range $510M–$657M), above Toy Story 5's likely final. 8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey's holds have been excellent (-27% second weekend, -43% third), and it will have ~6.5 weeks of release by September 1. 9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man releases July 31, giving it roughly 4.5 weekends before September 1; a record $360M opening with even a 1.7x multiplier implies $600M+ by then. 10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man and The Odyssey compete for the same August large-format/IMAX screens and adult audiences, which could compress each film's holds. 11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No other 2026 release is identified in reporting as near the $450M+ domestic level; three films had crossed $1B worldwide, with Toy Story 5 the highest. 12. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of the question's opening (Aug 4), Toy Story 5 still led the 2026 domestic chart at ~$465M versus The Odyssey's ~$405M. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $5.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.34, Volume: $3.9M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $4.7M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.0M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.11, Volume: $2.4M - "Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $479.3K - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $2.0M - "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $5.2M - "Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?" → Yes: 0.54, Volume: $275.5K Information gaps: - No post-opening weekday/second-weekend actuals for Spider-Man: Brand New Day - No confirmed Box Office Mojo year-to-date domestic ranking snapshot for August 2026 - Missing base rate: typical domestic multiplier for $300M+ superhero openings (Endgame ~2.33x) - No data on other 2026 releases' domestic totals beyond the top three Key uncertainties: - Spider-Man's total multiplier (frontloaded record opening vs. strong legs) - The Odyssey's August decay rate against Spider-Man competition - Whether Toy Story 5 gets a Labor Day/re-release bump - Exact Box Office Mojo cutoff/reporting timing on September 1
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
What will be the highest grossing movie of 2026 as of September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
[Toy Story 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toy_Story_5) is the fifth installment in the popular Toy Story series. It released on June 19, 2026 to massive success, becoming the highest grossing movie of 2026 so far.
[The Odyssey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Odyssey_\(2026_film\)) is an adaptation of Homer's ancient Greek epic poem of the same name. Following its release on July 17, 2026, the film has become one of the most popular movies of 2026. Due to its recent release, it is expected that The Odyssey will continue to see substantial increases in revenue, potentially overtaking Toy Story 5.
[Spider-Man: Brand New Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man%3A_Brand_New_Day) is a superhero film based on the long-running Spider-Man character. Scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, the film is [widely expected](https://deadline.com/2026/07/spider-man-brand-new-day-box-office-opening-projection-1236978377/) to be one the highest grossing movies of 2026, with opening predictions approaching the \$200M range.
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44966, "question_id": 45112}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the movie with the highest gross domestic box office revenue during 2026 according to [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/), when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.
## Fine Print
If Box Office Mojo's data is not available or is found to be unreliable, another credible source may be used.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44966) which opened on 2026-08-04 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Options
- Toy Story 5
- The Odyssey
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day
- Another movie
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will Toy Story 5 still hold the top domestic 2026 gross on Box Office Mojo when checked on/after September 1, 2026? — Toy Story 5 is the current leader with a ~6-week head start; incumbency matters since it will be near its final total by
- (w=0.30) Will The Odyssey's cumulative domestic gross exceed Toy Story 5's by September 1, 2026? — The Odyssey released July 17 with strong momentum and is the most likely challenger with ~6.5 weeks of run before the ch
- (w=0.30) Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day's domestic gross exceed both Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey by September 1, 2026? — A ~$200M opening plus ~4.5 weeks of legs could plausibly reach $400M+, potentially topping both, but its shorter runway
- (w=0.10) Will some movie other than these three (e.g., another 2026 tentpole) lead the domestic 2026 chart on September 1, 2026? — Checks the residual/'other' option probability from earlier-2026 releases or sleeper hits.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to $360M domestic in Monday actuals (July 31–Aug 2), surpassing Avengers: Endgame's $357.1M record.
2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man daily breakdown ($169.8M Fri/previews, $101.5M Sat, $88.7M Sun) shows Saturday/Sunday holds comparable to Endgame's, implying a normal-to-good multiplier.
3. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation gave medians of $472M (TS5), $297M (Odyssey), $416M (Spider-Man), apparently using a ~$200M Spider-Man opening rather than the actual $360M.
4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5 had a running domestic cume of $464.6M in early August, after $14.8M in weekend five and a $1.022B worldwide total.
5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5's weekend-five gross of $14.8M implies remaining August earnings of only roughly $30–45M, capping it near $500M by September 1.
6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey earned $405.3M domestic in 18 days ($123.5M opening, $90.0M second weekend, ~$51.1M third weekend), passing $400M by August 3.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A model-based projection puts The Odyssey's final domestic total at $533M–$609M (90% range $510M–$657M), above Toy Story 5's likely final.
8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey's holds have been excellent (-27% second weekend, -43% third), and it will have ~6.5 weeks of release by September 1.
9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man releases July 31, giving it roughly 4.5 weekends before September 1; a record $360M opening with even a 1.7x multiplier implies $600M+ by then.
10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man and The Odyssey compete for the same August large-format/IMAX screens and adult audiences, which could compress each film's holds.
11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No other 2026 release is identified in reporting as near the $450M+ domestic level; three films had crossed $1B worldwide, with Toy Story 5 the highest.
12. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of the question's opening (Aug 4), Toy Story 5 still led the 2026 domestic chart at ~$465M versus The Odyssey's ~$405M.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $5.0M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.34, Volume: $3.9M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $4.7M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.2M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.0M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.11, Volume: $2.4M
- "Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $479.3K
- "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $2.0M
- "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $5.2M
- "Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?" → Yes: 0.54, Volume: $275.5K
Information gaps:
- No post-opening weekday/second-weekend actuals for Spider-Man: Brand New Day
- No confirmed Box Office Mojo year-to-date domestic ranking snapshot for August 2026
- Missing base rate: typical domestic multiplier for $300M+ superhero openings (Endgame ~2.33x)
- No data on other 2026 releases' domestic totals beyond the top three
Key uncertainties:
- Spider-Man's total multiplier (frontloaded record opening vs. strong legs)
- The Odyssey's August decay rate against Spider-Man competition
- Whether Toy Story 5 gets a Labor Day/re-release bump
- Exact Box Office Mojo cutoff/reporting timing on September 1
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Toy Story 5": <prob>,
"The Odyssey": <prob>,
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day": <prob>,
"Another movie": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to $360M domestic in Monday actuals (July 31\u2013Aug 2), surpassing Avengers: Endgame\u0027s $357.1M record.\n2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man daily breakdown ($169.8M Fri/previews, $101.5M Sat, $88.7M Sun) shows Saturday/Sunday holds comparable to Endgame\u0027s, implying a normal-to-good multiplier.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation gave medians of $472M (TS5), $297M (Odyssey), $416M (Spider-Man), apparently using a ~$200M Spider-Man opening rather than the actual $360M.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5 had a running domestic cume of $464.6M in early August, after $14.8M in weekend five and a $1.022B worldwide total.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5\u0027s weekend-five gross of $14.8M implies remaining August earnings of only roughly $30\u201345M, capping it near $500M by September 1.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey earned $405.3M domestic in 18 days ($123.5M opening, $90.0M second weekend, ~$51.1M third weekend), passing $400M by August 3.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A model-based projection puts The Odyssey\u0027s final domestic total at $533M\u2013$609M (90% range $510M\u2013$657M), above Toy Story 5\u0027s likely final.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey\u0027s holds have been excellent (-27% second weekend, -43% third), and it will have ~6.5 weeks of release by September 1.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man releases July 31, giving it roughly 4.5 weekends before September 1; a record $360M opening with even a 1.7x multiplier implies $600M+ by then.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man and The Odyssey compete for the same August large-format/IMAX screens and adult audiences, which could compress each film\u0027s holds.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No other 2026 release is identified in reporting as near the $450M+ domestic level; three films had crossed $1B worldwide, with Toy Story 5 the highest.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of the question\u0027s opening (Aug 4), Toy Story 5 still led the 2026 domestic chart at ~$465M versus The Odyssey\u0027s ~$405M.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $5.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.34, Volume: $3.9M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.62, Volume: $4.7M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.0M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.11, Volume: $2.4M\n- \"Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $479.3K\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $2.0M\n- \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $5.2M\n- \"Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.54, Volume: $275.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No post-opening weekday/second-weekend actuals for Spider-Man: Brand New Day\n - No confirmed Box Office Mojo year-to-date domestic ranking snapshot for August 2026\n - Missing base rate: typical domestic multiplier for $300M+ superhero openings (Endgame ~2.33x)\n - No data on other 2026 releases\u0027 domestic totals beyond the top three\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Spider-Man\u0027s total multiplier (frontloaded record opening vs. strong legs)\n - The Odyssey\u0027s August decay rate against Spider-Man competition\n - Whether Toy Story 5 gets a Labor Day/re-release bump\n - Exact Box Office Mojo cutoff/reporting timing on September 1",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the highest grossing movie of 2026 as of September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\n[Toy Story 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toy_Story_5) is the fifth installment in the popular Toy Story series. It released on June 19, 2026 to massive success, becoming the highest grossing movie of 2026 so far.\n\n[The Odyssey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Odyssey_\\(2026_film\\)) is an adaptation of Homer\u0027s ancient Greek epic poem of the same name. Following its release on July 17, 2026, the film has become one of the most popular movies of 2026. Due to its recent release, it is expected that The Odyssey will continue to see substantial increases in revenue, potentially overtaking Toy Story 5.\n\n[Spider-Man: Brand New Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man%3A_Brand_New_Day) is a superhero film based on the long-running Spider-Man character. Scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, the film is [widely expected](https://deadline.com/2026/07/spider-man-brand-new-day-box-office-opening-projection-1236978377/) to be one the highest grossing movies of 2026, with opening predictions approaching the \\$200M range.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44966, \"question_id\": 45112}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the movie with the highest gross domestic box office revenue during 2026 according to [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/), when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf Box Office Mojo\u0027s data is not available or is found to be unreliable, another credible source may be used.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44966) which opened on 2026-08-04 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Options\n - Toy Story 5\n - The Odyssey\n - Spider-Man: Brand New Day\n - Another movie\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will Toy Story 5 still hold the top domestic 2026 gross on Box Office Mojo when checked on/after September 1, 2026? \u2014 Toy Story 5 is the current leader with a ~6-week head start; incumbency matters since it will be near its final total by\n- (w=0.30) Will The Odyssey\u0027s cumulative domestic gross exceed Toy Story 5\u0027s by September 1, 2026? \u2014 The Odyssey released July 17 with strong momentum and is the most likely challenger with ~6.5 weeks of run before the ch\n- (w=0.30) Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day\u0027s domestic gross exceed both Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey by September 1, 2026? \u2014 A ~$200M opening plus ~4.5 weeks of legs could plausibly reach $400M+, potentially topping both, but its shorter runway \n- (w=0.10) Will some movie other than these three (e.g., another 2026 tentpole) lead the domestic 2026 chart on September 1, 2026? \u2014 Checks the residual/\u0027other\u0027 option probability from earlier-2026 releases or sleeper hits.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to $360M domestic in Monday actuals (July 31\u2013Aug 2), surpassing Avengers: Endgame\u0027s $357.1M record.\n2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man daily breakdown ($169.8M Fri/previews, $101.5M Sat, $88.7M Sun) shows Saturday/Sunday holds comparable to Endgame\u0027s, implying a normal-to-good multiplier.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation gave medians of $472M (TS5), $297M (Odyssey), $416M (Spider-Man), apparently using a ~$200M Spider-Man opening rather than the actual $360M.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5 had a running domestic cume of $464.6M in early August, after $14.8M in weekend five and a $1.022B worldwide total.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Toy Story 5\u0027s weekend-five gross of $14.8M implies remaining August earnings of only roughly $30\u201345M, capping it near $500M by September 1.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey earned $405.3M domestic in 18 days ($123.5M opening, $90.0M second weekend, ~$51.1M third weekend), passing $400M by August 3.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A model-based projection puts The Odyssey\u0027s final domestic total at $533M\u2013$609M (90% range $510M\u2013$657M), above Toy Story 5\u0027s likely final.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Odyssey\u0027s holds have been excellent (-27% second weekend, -43% third), and it will have ~6.5 weeks of release by September 1.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man releases July 31, giving it roughly 4.5 weekends before September 1; a record $360M opening with even a 1.7x multiplier implies $600M+ by then.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Spider-Man and The Odyssey compete for the same August large-format/IMAX screens and adult audiences, which could compress each film\u0027s holds.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No other 2026 release is identified in reporting as near the $450M+ domestic level; three films had crossed $1B worldwide, with Toy Story 5 the highest.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of the question\u0027s opening (Aug 4), Toy Story 5 still led the 2026 domestic chart at ~$465M versus The Odyssey\u0027s ~$405M.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $5.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.34, Volume: $3.9M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.62, Volume: $4.7M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.0M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.11, Volume: $2.4M\n- \"Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $479.3K\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $2.0M\n- \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $5.2M\n- \"Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.54, Volume: $275.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No post-opening weekday/second-weekend actuals for Spider-Man: Brand New Day\n - No confirmed Box Office Mojo year-to-date domestic ranking snapshot for August 2026\n - Missing base rate: typical domestic multiplier for $300M+ superhero openings (Endgame ~2.33x)\n - No data on other 2026 releases\u0027 domestic totals beyond the top three\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Spider-Man\u0027s total multiplier (frontloaded record opening vs. strong legs)\n - The Odyssey\u0027s August decay rate against Spider-Man competition\n - Whether Toy Story 5 gets a Labor Day/re-release bump\n - Exact Box Office Mojo cutoff/reporting timing on September 1\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Toy Story 5\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"The Odyssey\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Another movie\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"probabilities": {
"Another movie": 0.025,
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day": 0.875,
"The Odyssey": 0.065,
"Toy Story 5": 0.035
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves when checked on/after September 1, 2026 \u2014 roughly four weeks from the opening data date, meaning Spider-Man will have ~4.5 weekends, The Odyssey ~6.5 weeks, and Toy Story 5 will be essentially played out. (b) The nominal status quo (Aug 4) leader is Toy Story 5 at ~$465M, but it\u0027s decaying fast ($14.8M in weekend five), capping it near $500M; The Odyssey at $405M in 18 days with excellent holds should finish August around $490\u2013530M, so the status quo leader on Sept 1 is really a Odyssey/Spider-Man question. (c) The surprising-but-plausible outcome is Toy Story 5 holding on \u2014 requiring both The Odyssey to collapse in August and Spider-Man to be extraordinarily frontloaded, or a data/reporting quirk; even more surprising would be some fourth film. The decisive evidence is Spider-Man: Brand New Day\u0027s record $360M three-day opening with Endgame-like Saturday/Sunday holds; even a very frontloaded 1.4x multiplier yields ~$500M and a normal 1.7\u20132.0x yields $600M+ within four weeks, comfortably above both rivals. The main residual risk is an unprecedented collapse (bad word of mouth, extreme frontloading) plus The Odyssey continuing to leg out \u2014 which is why I keep a few points on The Odyssey. Toy Story 5 gets a small allowance for reporting/timing quirks and a Labor Day bump combined with a Spider-Man/Odyssey underperformance, and \u0027another movie\u0027 is nearly ruled out by reporting showing no other 2026 title near $450M domestic.",
"top_option": "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "culture",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate each contender\u0027s cumulative domestic gross as of Sept 1, 2026 from reported actuals and typical decay curves, then convert to mutually exclusive win probabilities; the weighted average of the sub-question probabilities (normalized across options) yields the multiple-choice distribution.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Toy Story 5 still hold the top domestic 2026 gross on Box Office Mojo when checked on/after September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Toy Story 5 is the current leader with a ~6-week head start; incumbency matters since it will be near its final total by Sept 1.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will The Odyssey\u0027s cumulative domestic gross exceed Toy Story 5\u0027s by September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "The Odyssey released July 17 with strong momentum and is the most likely challenger with ~6.5 weeks of run before the check date.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day\u0027s domestic gross exceed both Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey by September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "A ~$200M opening plus ~4.5 weeks of legs could plausibly reach $400M+, potentially topping both, but its shorter runway is a constraint.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will some movie other than these three (e.g., another 2026 tentpole) lead the domestic 2026 chart on September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Checks the residual/\u0027other\u0027 option probability from earlier-2026 releases or sleeper hits.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Box Office Mojo 2026 domestic yearly box office chart Toy Story 5 The Odyssey",
"Spider-Man Brand New Day box office opening weekend actual domestic",
"The Odyssey domestic total gross August 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the current cumulative domestic (US/Canada) box office grosses for Toy Story 5, The Odyssey, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day as of late August 2026, plus weekly drops and projected final domestic totals. Also identify the current top of Box Office Mojo\u0027s 2026 domestic yearly chart and any other 2026 film above $350M domestic.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the highest grossing movie of 2026 as of September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Monte Carlo: project domestic cumulative totals to Sept 1, 2026 given release dates and plausible opening/multiplier ranges\nnp.random.seed(0)\nN=200000\n# Toy Story 5: released Jun 19; ~near final by Sept 1\nts5_open=np.random.normal(145,25,N).clip(90,220)\nts5_mult=np.random.normal(3.4,0.5,N).clip(2.4,4.6)\nts5=ts5_open*ts5_mult*0.97\n# The Odyssey: Jun/Jul 17 release, ~6.5 weeks by Sept 1 -\u003e ~90% of final\nod_open=np.random.normal(85,25,N).clip(40,160)\nod_mult=np.random.normal(4.0,0.9,N).clip(2.5,7.0)\nod=od_open*od_mult*0.90\n# Spider-Man BND: Jul 31, ~4.5 weeks -\u003e ~80% of final\nsm_open=np.random.normal(195,30,N).clip(120,280)\nsm_mult=np.random.normal(2.7,0.4,N).clip(2.0,3.8)\nsm=sm_open*sm_mult*0.80\nstack=np.vstack([ts5,od,sm])\nwin=np.argmax(stack,axis=0)\nprint(\u0027TS5\u0027,(win==0).mean(),\u0027Odyssey\u0027,(win==1).mean(),\u0027SpiderMan\u0027,(win==2).mean())\nprint(\u0027medians\u0027, np.median(ts5), np.median(od), np.median(sm))",
"description": "Monte Carlo simulation of domestic cumulative grosses by Sept 1, 2026 for the three contenders under plausible opening/multiplier assumptions."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-07T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\n[Toy Story 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toy_Story_5) is the fifth installment in the popular Toy Story series. It released on June 19, 2026 to massive success, becoming the highest grossing movie of 2026 so far.\n\n[The Odyssey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Odyssey_\\(2026_film\\)) is an adaptation of Homer\u0027s ancient Greek epic poem of the same name. Following its release on July 17, 2026, the film has become one of the most popular movies of 2026. Due to its recent release, it is expected that The Odyssey will continue to see substantial increases in revenue, potentially overtaking Toy Story 5.\n\n[Spider-Man: Brand New Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man%3A_Brand_New_Day) is a superhero film based on the long-running Spider-Man character. Scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, the film is [widely expected](https://deadline.com/2026/07/spider-man-brand-new-day-box-office-opening-projection-1236978377/) to be one the highest grossing movies of 2026, with opening predictions approaching the \\$200M range.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44966, \"question_id\": 45112}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the movie with the highest gross domestic box office revenue during 2026 according to [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/), when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf Box Office Mojo\u0027s data is not available or is found to be unreliable, another credible source may be used.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44966) which opened on 2026-08-04 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"options": [
"Toy Story 5",
"The Odyssey",
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day",
"Another movie"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "What will be the highest grossing movie of 2026 as of September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $5.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.34, Volume: $3.9M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.62, Volume: $4.7M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.0M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.11, Volume: $2.4M\n- \"Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $479.3K\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $2.0M\n- \"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $5.2M\n- \"Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.54, Volume: $275.5K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 29.7,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 36.71,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "13 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.33,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo simulation of domestic cumulative grosses by Sep",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to $360M domestic in Monday actuals (July 31\u2013Aug 2), surpassing Avengers: Endgame\u0027s $357.1M record.",
"credibility": 93,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Spider-Man daily breakdown ($169.8M Fri/previews, $101.5M Sat, $88.7M Sun) shows Saturday/Sunday holds comparable to Endgame\u0027s, implying a normal-to-good multiplier.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo simulation gave medians of $472M (TS5), $297M (Odyssey), $416M (Spider-Man), apparently using a ~$200M Spider-Man opening rather than the actual $360M.",
"credibility": 20,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Toy Story 5 had a running domestic cume of $464.6M in early August, after $14.8M in weekend five and a $1.022B worldwide total.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Toy Story 5\u0027s weekend-five gross of $14.8M implies remaining August earnings of only roughly $30\u201345M, capping it near $500M by September 1.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The Odyssey earned $405.3M domestic in 18 days ($123.5M opening, $90.0M second weekend, ~$51.1M third weekend), passing $400M by August 3.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "A model-based projection puts The Odyssey\u0027s final domestic total at $533M\u2013$609M (90% range $510M\u2013$657M), above Toy Story 5\u0027s likely final.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The Odyssey\u0027s holds have been excellent (-27% second weekend, -43% third), and it will have ~6.5 weeks of release by September 1.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Spider-Man releases July 31, giving it roughly 4.5 weekends before September 1; a record $360M opening with even a 1.7x multiplier implies $600M+ by then.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Spider-Man and The Odyssey compete for the same August large-format/IMAX screens and adult audiences, which could compress each film\u0027s holds.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "No other 2026 release is identified in reporting as near the $450M+ domestic level; three films had crossed $1B worldwide, with Toy Story 5 the highest.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "As of the question\u0027s opening (Aug 4), Toy Story 5 still led the 2026 domestic chart at ~$465M versus The Odyssey\u0027s ~$405M.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No post-opening weekday/second-weekend actuals for Spider-Man: Brand New Day",
"No confirmed Box Office Mojo year-to-date domestic ranking snapshot for August 2026",
"Missing base rate: typical domestic multiplier for $300M+ superhero openings (Endgame ~2.33x)",
"No data on other 2026 releases\u0027 domestic totals beyond the top three"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Spider-Man\u0027s total multiplier (frontloaded record opening vs. strong legs)",
"The Odyssey\u0027s August decay rate against Spider-Man competition",
"Whether Toy Story 5 gets a Labor Day/re-release bump",
"Exact Box Office Mojo cutoff/reporting timing on September 1"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 59.82,
"plan": 24.54,
"research": 36.71,
"synthesis": 29.91
}
}