Estimate each company's per-month probability of a TracXn-listed round from its historical raise cadence (adjusted for current fundraising reports, August seasonality, and TracXn dating/lag), then combine via independent_or since any one round resolves YES; anchor the result to the Poisson base rate.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.18, Volume: $2.2M - "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $350.5K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.1M - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $210.8K - "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $178.7K - "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $195.1K - "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $186.1K - "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.56, Volume: $161.8K - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $3.7M - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $991.1K
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Lovable's historical raise cadence at ~0.133 rounds/month, implying ~12.5% chance of a round in any given month. 2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates DeepSeek's historical funding rate at ~0.028 rounds/month (~2.7% per month), by far the lowest of the three. 3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates Perplexity's raise cadence at ~0.194 rounds/month (~17.7% per month), the highest of the three companies. 4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Combined capture-adjusted probability that any of the three records an August 2026 round is ~25.8%, falling to ~18.5-22% with August seasonality discounts. 5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] NYT/Crunchbase reported AI companies raised a record $297 billion in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating private AI funding boom. 6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged copyright infringement, adding to suits from the New York Times and Chicago Tribune. 7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity's Comet browser from accessing Amazon's site in Amazon's suit against the startup. 8. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | DATED] CNBC (June 2026) reports capital is rotating heavily toward AI-native startups while pre-ChatGPT-era startups struggle to raise. 9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No articles in the searched corpus (Feb–Aug 2026) mention DeepSeek raising or seeking outside capital. 10. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The article search returned almost entirely irrelevant results (government funding, health, personal finance), yielding no direct signal on Lovable. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.18, Volume: $2.2M - "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $350.5K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.1M - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $210.8K - "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $178.7K - "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $195.1K - "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $186.1K - "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.56, Volume: $161.8K - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $3.7M - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $991.1K Information gaps: - No TracXn-sourced round histories or dating/lag conventions for the three companies - No reports of active/rumored raises for Lovable or Perplexity in mid-2026 - DeepSeek's ownership structure (High-Flyer-backed, largely self-funded) not verified in research - No empirical base rate on August seasonality in VC round dating Key uncertainties: - Whether TracXn back-dates rounds or lists them promptly enough by Sept 1 - Whether Perplexity launches another mega-round amid the AI funding boom - Whether DeepSeek accepts external capital at all - Whether Lovable's rapid growth triggers an off-cycle raise
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in August 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
New York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) "OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "2e4f9f5239540536", "sheet_id": "143"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in August 2026, when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026: [Lovable](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/lovable/__fO6WUvzcx5q3814ietMd3kzGlRirsatzsTnpxmzLuMI/funding-and-investors), [DeepSeek](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/deepseek/__1GrZ3pgoi2O-9tMSfF9ka6Sjybc1lgSSZ_qQqo5k2vE/funding-and-investors), or [Perplexity](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/perplexity/__V2BE-5ihMWJ1hNb2_u1W7Gry25JzPFCBg-iNWi94XI8/funding-and-investors).
## Fine Print
No other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.33) Will Lovable have a funding round dated August 2026 listed on TracXn (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)? — Lovable is a fast-scaling AI coding startup that has raised repeatedly at short intervals (seed, Series A, Series B with
- (w=0.33) Will DeepSeek have a funding round dated August 2026 listed on TracXn (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)? — DeepSeek is funded by High-Flyer and has historically not raised external rounds; any change (external/state-linked capi
- (w=0.34) Will Perplexity have a funding round dated August 2026 listed on TracXn (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)? — Perplexity has raised on a roughly every-3-6-month cadence at escalating valuations, making it the most likely single co
Combination rule: **independent_or**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Lovable's historical raise cadence at ~0.133 rounds/month, implying ~12.5% chance of a round in any given month.
2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates DeepSeek's historical funding rate at ~0.028 rounds/month (~2.7% per month), by far the lowest of the three.
3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates Perplexity's raise cadence at ~0.194 rounds/month (~17.7% per month), the highest of the three companies.
4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Combined capture-adjusted probability that any of the three records an August 2026 round is ~25.8%, falling to ~18.5-22% with August seasonality discounts.
5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] NYT/Crunchbase reported AI companies raised a record $297 billion in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating private AI funding boom.
6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged copyright infringement, adding to suits from the New York Times and Chicago Tribune.
7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity's Comet browser from accessing Amazon's site in Amazon's suit against the startup.
8. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | DATED] CNBC (June 2026) reports capital is rotating heavily toward AI-native startups while pre-ChatGPT-era startups struggle to raise.
9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No articles in the searched corpus (Feb–Aug 2026) mention DeepSeek raising or seeking outside capital.
10. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The article search returned almost entirely irrelevant results (government funding, health, personal finance), yielding no direct signal on Lovable.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.18, Volume: $2.2M
- "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $350.5K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.1M
- "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $210.8K
- "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $178.7K
- "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $195.1K
- "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $186.1K
- "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.56, Volume: $161.8K
- "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $3.7M
- "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $991.1K
Information gaps:
- No TracXn-sourced round histories or dating/lag conventions for the three companies
- No reports of active/rumored raises for Lovable or Perplexity in mid-2026
- DeepSeek's ownership structure (High-Flyer-backed, largely self-funded) not verified in research
- No empirical base rate on August seasonality in VC round dating
Key uncertainties:
- Whether TracXn back-dates rounds or lists them promptly enough by Sept 1
- Whether Perplexity launches another mega-round amid the AI funding boom
- Whether DeepSeek accepts external capital at all
- Whether Lovable's rapid growth triggers an off-cycle raise
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Lovable\u0027s historical raise cadence at ~0.133 rounds/month, implying ~12.5% chance of a round in any given month.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates DeepSeek\u0027s historical funding rate at ~0.028 rounds/month (~2.7% per month), by far the lowest of the three.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates Perplexity\u0027s raise cadence at ~0.194 rounds/month (~17.7% per month), the highest of the three companies.\n4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Combined capture-adjusted probability that any of the three records an August 2026 round is ~25.8%, falling to ~18.5-22% with August seasonality discounts.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] NYT/Crunchbase reported AI companies raised a record $297 billion in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating private AI funding boom.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged copyright infringement, adding to suits from the New York Times and Chicago Tribune.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity\u0027s Comet browser from accessing Amazon\u0027s site in Amazon\u0027s suit against the startup.\n8. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | DATED] CNBC (June 2026) reports capital is rotating heavily toward AI-native startups while pre-ChatGPT-era startups struggle to raise.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No articles in the searched corpus (Feb\u2013Aug 2026) mention DeepSeek raising or seeking outside capital.\n10. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The article search returned almost entirely irrelevant results (government funding, health, personal finance), yielding no direct signal on Lovable.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.18, Volume: $2.2M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $350.5K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.1M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $210.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $178.7K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $195.1K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $186.1K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.56, Volume: $161.8K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $3.7M\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $991.1K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No TracXn-sourced round histories or dating/lag conventions for the three companies\n - No reports of active/rumored raises for Lovable or Perplexity in mid-2026\n - DeepSeek\u0027s ownership structure (High-Flyer-backed, largely self-funded) not verified in research\n - No empirical base rate on August seasonality in VC round dating\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether TracXn back-dates rounds or lists them promptly enough by Sept 1\n - Whether Perplexity launches another mega-round amid the AI funding boom\n - Whether DeepSeek accepts external capital at all\n - Whether Lovable\u0027s rapid growth triggers an off-cycle raise",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in August 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nNew York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) \"OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"2e4f9f5239540536\", \"sheet_id\": \"143\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in August 2026, when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026: [Lovable](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/lovable/__fO6WUvzcx5q3814ietMd3kzGlRirsatzsTnpxmzLuMI/funding-and-investors), [DeepSeek](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/deepseek/__1GrZ3pgoi2O-9tMSfF9ka6Sjybc1lgSSZ_qQqo5k2vE/funding-and-investors), or [Perplexity](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/perplexity/__V2BE-5ihMWJ1hNb2_u1W7Gry25JzPFCBg-iNWi94XI8/funding-and-investors).\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.33) Will Lovable have a funding round dated August 2026 listed on TracXn (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)? \u2014 Lovable is a fast-scaling AI coding startup that has raised repeatedly at short intervals (seed, Series A, Series B with\n- (w=0.33) Will DeepSeek have a funding round dated August 2026 listed on TracXn (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)? \u2014 DeepSeek is funded by High-Flyer and has historically not raised external rounds; any change (external/state-linked capi\n- (w=0.34) Will Perplexity have a funding round dated August 2026 listed on TracXn (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)? \u2014 Perplexity has raised on a roughly every-3-6-month cadence at escalating valuations, making it the most likely single co\n\nCombination rule: **independent_or**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Lovable\u0027s historical raise cadence at ~0.133 rounds/month, implying ~12.5% chance of a round in any given month.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates DeepSeek\u0027s historical funding rate at ~0.028 rounds/month (~2.7% per month), by far the lowest of the three.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates Perplexity\u0027s raise cadence at ~0.194 rounds/month (~17.7% per month), the highest of the three companies.\n4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Combined capture-adjusted probability that any of the three records an August 2026 round is ~25.8%, falling to ~18.5-22% with August seasonality discounts.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] NYT/Crunchbase reported AI companies raised a record $297 billion in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating private AI funding boom.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged copyright infringement, adding to suits from the New York Times and Chicago Tribune.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity\u0027s Comet browser from accessing Amazon\u0027s site in Amazon\u0027s suit against the startup.\n8. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | DATED] CNBC (June 2026) reports capital is rotating heavily toward AI-native startups while pre-ChatGPT-era startups struggle to raise.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No articles in the searched corpus (Feb\u2013Aug 2026) mention DeepSeek raising or seeking outside capital.\n10. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The article search returned almost entirely irrelevant results (government funding, health, personal finance), yielding no direct signal on Lovable.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.18, Volume: $2.2M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $350.5K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.1M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $210.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $178.7K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $195.1K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $186.1K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.56, Volume: $161.8K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $3.7M\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $991.1K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No TracXn-sourced round histories or dating/lag conventions for the three companies\n - No reports of active/rumored raises for Lovable or Perplexity in mid-2026\n - DeepSeek\u0027s ownership structure (High-Flyer-backed, largely self-funded) not verified in research\n - No empirical base rate on August seasonality in VC round dating\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether TracXn back-dates rounds or lists them promptly enough by Sept 1\n - Whether Perplexity launches another mega-round amid the AI funding boom\n - Whether DeepSeek accepts external capital at all\n - Whether Lovable\u0027s rapid growth triggers an off-cycle raise\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.2,
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p_yes": 0.22623520000000003,
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves after Sept 1, 2026, based on whether TracXn lists an August 2026 round; from the current vantage there is roughly a month-long window of interest plus verification lag. (b) Status quo: none of the three companies has a publicly rumored raise closing in August 2026, so absent a new announcement the default outcome is No \u2014 in any given single month, a specific late-stage startup usually does not close a round. (c) NO scenario: Perplexity\u0027s last mega-round is still recent and its next raise falls outside August (Q4 2026), Lovable\u0027s cadence puts its next round in autumn, DeepSeek remains High-Flyer-funded with no external capital, and August\u0027s summer VC lull further suppresses closings; also TracXn may not have logged any August event by Sept 1. (d) YES scenario: the record AI funding boom (Q1 2026 $297B) pulls raises forward \u2014 Perplexity closes another escalating round to fund Comet/litigation costs, or Lovable does an off-cycle round on rapid ARR growth, or a Chinese state-linked/strategic investment into DeepSeek is recorded. Base-rate modeling gives ~12-13%/month for Lovable, ~18%/month for Perplexity, ~3%/month for DeepSeek; I shade these down modestly for August seasonality, listing lag, and the fact that the Poisson cadence overstates near-term likelihood right after a large round. That yields a combined probability in the low 20s.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.09,
"sq2": 0.03,
"sq3": 0.13
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Credible reports (TechCrunch/The Information/Bloomberg) of Perplexity or Lovable being in active talks expected to close in August 2026 would push me well above 40-70%; confirmation that all three closed large rounds in Q2 2026 (making an August raise redundant) would push me below 15%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate each company\u0027s per-month probability of a TracXn-listed round from its historical raise cadence (adjusted for current fundraising reports, August seasonality, and TracXn dating/lag), then combine via independent_or since any one round resolves YES; anchor the result to the Poisson base rate.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Lovable have a funding round dated August 2026 listed on TracXn (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)?",
"rationale": "Lovable is a fast-scaling AI coding startup that has raised repeatedly at short intervals (seed, Series A, Series B within ~18 months), plus TracXn often logs smaller/secondary rounds; its raise cadence drives a meaningful share of the OR probability.",
"weight": 0.33
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will DeepSeek have a funding round dated August 2026 listed on TracXn (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)?",
"rationale": "DeepSeek is funded by High-Flyer and has historically not raised external rounds; any change (external/state-linked capital) would be a discrete, low-probability event.",
"weight": 0.33
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Perplexity have a funding round dated August 2026 listed on TracXn (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)?",
"rationale": "Perplexity has raised on a roughly every-3-6-month cadence at escalating valuations, making it the most likely single contributor; also frequently reported as \u0027in talks\u0027 which TracXn later dates.",
"weight": 0.34
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the complete funding history (round type, amount, announcement month/year) for Lovable, DeepSeek, and Perplexity AI through mid-2026, and any current reports of ongoing or imminent new fundraising talks, term sheets, tender offers, or secondary sales for each of these three companies. Note especially anything expected to close in mid/late 2026.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in August 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"Perplexity AI new funding round valuation 2026",
"Lovable raises funding valuation Series",
"DeepSeek external investors funding raise"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base rate: probability a given company records a funding round in a specific calendar month\n# Estimate from historical round counts over active months\ncompanies = {\n \u0027Perplexity\u0027: {\u0027rounds\u0027: 7, \u0027active_months\u0027: 36}, # ~7 rounds since 2022\n \u0027Lovable\u0027: {\u0027rounds\u0027: 4, \u0027active_months\u0027: 30}, # seed/A/B plus extensions\n \u0027DeepSeek\u0027: {\u0027rounds\u0027: 1, \u0027active_months\u0027: 36}, # essentially internally funded\n}\nps = {}\nfor c, d in companies.items():\n lam = d[\u0027rounds\u0027]/d[\u0027active_months\u0027]\n p = 1-np.exp(-lam)\n ps[c] = p\n print(c, \u0027monthly rate\u0027, round(lam,3), \u0027P(round in a given month)\u0027, round(p,3))\n# OR across three, plus adjustment for TracXn listing/dating lag (~0.85 capture within 1 month)\ncapture = 0.85\np_any = 1-np.prod([1-ps[c]*capture for c in ps])\nprint(\u0027P(any, capture-adjusted)\u0027, round(p_any,3))\n# August seasonality (Aug is typically slower for announcements in US/Europe)\nfor s in [0.7,0.85,1.0]:\n print(\u0027seasonal factor\u0027, s, \u0027P=\u0027, round(1-np.prod([1-ps[c]*capture*s for c in ps]),3))\n",
"description": "Poisson base-rate estimate for probability at least one of the three companies records an August 2026 funding round, with TracXn capture and August seasonality adjustments."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-07T06:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nNew York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) \"OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"2e4f9f5239540536\", \"sheet_id\": \"143\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in August 2026, when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026: [Lovable](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/lovable/__fO6WUvzcx5q3814ietMd3kzGlRirsatzsTnpxmzLuMI/funding-and-investors), [DeepSeek](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/deepseek/__1GrZ3pgoi2O-9tMSfF9ka6Sjybc1lgSSZ_qQqo5k2vE/funding-and-investors), or [Perplexity](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/perplexity/__V2BE-5ihMWJ1hNb2_u1W7Gry25JzPFCBg-iNWi94XI8/funding-and-investors).\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in August 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.18, Volume: $2.2M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $350.5K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.1M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $210.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $178.7K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $195.1K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $186.1K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.56, Volume: $161.8K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $3.7M\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $991.1K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 28.58,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "13 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.65,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.2,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Poisson base-rate estimate for probability at least one of t",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Poisson base-rate model estimates Lovable\u0027s historical raise cadence at ~0.133 rounds/month, implying ~12.5% chance of a round in any given month.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Model estimates DeepSeek\u0027s historical funding rate at ~0.028 rounds/month (~2.7% per month), by far the lowest of the three.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Model estimates Perplexity\u0027s raise cadence at ~0.194 rounds/month (~17.7% per month), the highest of the three companies.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Combined capture-adjusted probability that any of the three records an August 2026 round is ~25.8%, falling to ~18.5-22% with August seasonality discounts.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "NYT/Crunchbase reported AI companies raised a record $297 billion in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating private AI funding boom.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged copyright infringement, adding to suits from the New York Times and Chicago Tribune.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity\u0027s Comet browser from accessing Amazon\u0027s site in Amazon\u0027s suit against the startup.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "CNBC (June 2026) reports capital is rotating heavily toward AI-native startups while pre-ChatGPT-era startups struggle to raise.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "No articles in the searched corpus (Feb\u2013Aug 2026) mention DeepSeek raising or seeking outside capital.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The article search returned almost entirely irrelevant results (government funding, health, personal finance), yielding no direct signal on Lovable.",
"credibility": 25,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No TracXn-sourced round histories or dating/lag conventions for the three companies",
"No reports of active/rumored raises for Lovable or Perplexity in mid-2026",
"DeepSeek\u0027s ownership structure (High-Flyer-backed, largely self-funded) not verified in research",
"No empirical base rate on August seasonality in VC round dating"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether TracXn back-dates rounds or lists them promptly enough by Sept 1",
"Whether Perplexity launches another mega-round amid the AI funding boom",
"Whether DeepSeek accepts external capital at all",
"Whether Lovable\u0027s rapid growth triggers an off-cycle raise"
],
"n_evidence": 10
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 55.83,
"plan": 25.27,
"research": 28.58,
"synthesis": 20.42
}
}