Estimate each company's monthly hazard of a TracXn-listed round from its trailing multi-year round frequency (inflated because TracXn logs tranches, debt, and secondaries), adjust upward for any reported in-progress raises, then combine via independent OR since any single company suffices, with mild downward blending for correlation and TracXn listing lag.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?" → Yes: 0.93, Volume: $247.3K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.20, Volume: $2.0M - "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $261.6K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.57, Volume: $968.6K - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $181.2K - "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $172.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $152.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $166.6K
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model using trailing round frequency gives per-month probabilities of ~0.22 (OpenAI), ~0.24 (Anthropic), ~0.13 (Mistral), and ~0.49 for at least one. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Tracxn lists OpenAI with 14 funding rounds totaling $180B, including seed, early, 9 late-stage, debt and a grant round. 3. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI announced a $110B round on Feb 27, 2026, then added $10B more in late March, bringing it above $120B; Tracxn logs it as a Feb 27, 2026 Series F of $122B. 4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] The Feb/March 2026 raise was described as possibly OpenAI's last private fundraise before an expected IPO, and OpenAI circulated an IPO-prospectus-like investor document. 5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] OpenAI's added $10B tranche in March 2026 shows the company books incremental tranches over months, a pattern Tracxn often records as separate rounds. 6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Musk v. Altman trial over OpenAI's for-profit conversion ran through April–May 2026 with Musk seeking Altman's ouster and rollback of the restructuring. 7. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Anthropic closed a $65B Series H at a $965B post-money valuation on May 28, 2026, led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia. 8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Anthropic raised $30B at a $380B valuation roughly three months before the May 2026 round, implying a raise cadence of roughly one round per quarter in 2026. 9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Anthropic is in ongoing litigation with the Pentagon over a 'supply chain risk' designation; a district judge blocked it in March 2026 and an appeal was argued in May 2026. 10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Mistral's last reported round is a €1.7B Series C led by ASML in September 2025; no new 2026 round reported as of early July 2026. 11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Mistral committed to a €4B data-center buildout across France and Sweden and acquired Koyeb in February 2026, with ARR above $400M targeting $1B. 12. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Crunchbase data showed AI companies raised a record $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding environment across the sector. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?" → Yes: 0.93, Volume: $247.3K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.20, Volume: $2.0M - "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $261.6K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.57, Volume: $968.6K - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $181.2K - "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $172.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $152.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $166.6K Information gaps: - No direct scrape of the three TracXn pages showing exact historical round dates/counts - No reporting on any in-progress raise dated July–August 2026 for any of the three - Unknown base rate of TracXn back-dating/logging lag for tranches and secondaries - No data on whether OpenAI IPO timing was set, which would replace private rounds Key uncertainties: - Whether TracXn counts tranches, debt and secondaries as separate dated rounds - Whether Anthropic follows its ~quarterly 2026 cadence with an August raise - Whether Mistral launches a Series D to fund its €4B compute buildout - August seasonality (European/US summer lull) in deal announcements
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in August 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
New York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) "OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "e6ac1841531648d4", "sheet_id": "141"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in August 2026, when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026: [Mistral AI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/mistral-ai/__SLZq7rzxLYqqA97jtPwO09jLDeb76RVJVb306OhciWU/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), [Anthropic](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/anthropic/__SzoxXDMin-NK5tKB7ks8yHr6S9Mz68pjVCzFEcGFZ08/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), or [OpenAI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/openai/__kElhSG7uVGeFk1i71Co9-nwFtmtyMVT7f-YHMn4TFBg/funding-and-investors).
## Fine Print
No other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.40) Will OpenAI have a funding round with a date in August 2026 listed on its TracXn funding page (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)? — OpenAI is the largest and most frequent fundraiser of the three; TracXn logs tranches, debt facilities, and secondary/ro
- (w=0.35) Will Anthropic have a funding round with a date in August 2026 listed on its TracXn funding page? — Anthropic has raised repeatedly (Series E/F, strategic investments from Google/Microsoft/Nvidia), giving a nontrivial mo
- (w=0.25) Will Mistral AI have a funding round with a date in August 2026 listed on its TracXn funding page? — Mistral raises less frequently (roughly annually) but is actively fundraising amid the European AI boom; adds a smaller
Combination rule: **independent_or**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model using trailing round frequency gives per-month probabilities of ~0.22 (OpenAI), ~0.24 (Anthropic), ~0.13 (Mistral), and ~0.49 for at least one.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Tracxn lists OpenAI with 14 funding rounds totaling $180B, including seed, early, 9 late-stage, debt and a grant round.
3. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI announced a $110B round on Feb 27, 2026, then added $10B more in late March, bringing it above $120B; Tracxn logs it as a Feb 27, 2026 Series F of $122B.
4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] The Feb/March 2026 raise was described as possibly OpenAI's last private fundraise before an expected IPO, and OpenAI circulated an IPO-prospectus-like investor document.
5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] OpenAI's added $10B tranche in March 2026 shows the company books incremental tranches over months, a pattern Tracxn often records as separate rounds.
6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Musk v. Altman trial over OpenAI's for-profit conversion ran through April–May 2026 with Musk seeking Altman's ouster and rollback of the restructuring.
7. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Anthropic closed a $65B Series H at a $965B post-money valuation on May 28, 2026, led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia.
8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Anthropic raised $30B at a $380B valuation roughly three months before the May 2026 round, implying a raise cadence of roughly one round per quarter in 2026.
9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Anthropic is in ongoing litigation with the Pentagon over a 'supply chain risk' designation; a district judge blocked it in March 2026 and an appeal was argued in May 2026.
10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Mistral's last reported round is a €1.7B Series C led by ASML in September 2025; no new 2026 round reported as of early July 2026.
11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Mistral committed to a €4B data-center buildout across France and Sweden and acquired Koyeb in February 2026, with ARR above $400M targeting $1B.
12. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Crunchbase data showed AI companies raised a record $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding environment across the sector.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?" → Yes: 0.93, Volume: $247.3K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.20, Volume: $2.0M
- "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $261.6K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.57, Volume: $968.6K
- "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $181.2K
- "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $172.9K
- "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $152.9K
- "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $166.6K
Information gaps:
- No direct scrape of the three TracXn pages showing exact historical round dates/counts
- No reporting on any in-progress raise dated July–August 2026 for any of the three
- Unknown base rate of TracXn back-dating/logging lag for tranches and secondaries
- No data on whether OpenAI IPO timing was set, which would replace private rounds
Key uncertainties:
- Whether TracXn counts tranches, debt and secondaries as separate dated rounds
- Whether Anthropic follows its ~quarterly 2026 cadence with an August raise
- Whether Mistral launches a Series D to fund its €4B compute buildout
- August seasonality (European/US summer lull) in deal announcements
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model using trailing round frequency gives per-month probabilities of ~0.22 (OpenAI), ~0.24 (Anthropic), ~0.13 (Mistral), and ~0.49 for at least one.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Tracxn lists OpenAI with 14 funding rounds totaling $180B, including seed, early, 9 late-stage, debt and a grant round.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI announced a $110B round on Feb 27, 2026, then added $10B more in late March, bringing it above $120B; Tracxn logs it as a Feb 27, 2026 Series F of $122B.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] The Feb/March 2026 raise was described as possibly OpenAI\u0027s last private fundraise before an expected IPO, and OpenAI circulated an IPO-prospectus-like investor document.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] OpenAI\u0027s added $10B tranche in March 2026 shows the company books incremental tranches over months, a pattern Tracxn often records as separate rounds.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Musk v. Altman trial over OpenAI\u0027s for-profit conversion ran through April\u2013May 2026 with Musk seeking Altman\u0027s ouster and rollback of the restructuring.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Anthropic closed a $65B Series H at a $965B post-money valuation on May 28, 2026, led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Anthropic raised $30B at a $380B valuation roughly three months before the May 2026 round, implying a raise cadence of roughly one round per quarter in 2026.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Anthropic is in ongoing litigation with the Pentagon over a \u0027supply chain risk\u0027 designation; a district judge blocked it in March 2026 and an appeal was argued in May 2026.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Mistral\u0027s last reported round is a \u20ac1.7B Series C led by ASML in September 2025; no new 2026 round reported as of early July 2026.\n11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Mistral committed to a \u20ac4B data-center buildout across France and Sweden and acquired Koyeb in February 2026, with ARR above $400M targeting $1B.\n12. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Crunchbase data showed AI companies raised a record $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding environment across the sector.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.93, Volume: $247.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.20, Volume: $2.0M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $261.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.57, Volume: $968.6K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $181.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $172.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $152.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $166.6K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct scrape of the three TracXn pages showing exact historical round dates/counts\n - No reporting on any in-progress raise dated July\u2013August 2026 for any of the three\n - Unknown base rate of TracXn back-dating/logging lag for tranches and secondaries\n - No data on whether OpenAI IPO timing was set, which would replace private rounds\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether TracXn counts tranches, debt and secondaries as separate dated rounds\n - Whether Anthropic follows its ~quarterly 2026 cadence with an August raise\n - Whether Mistral launches a Series D to fund its \u20ac4B compute buildout\n - August seasonality (European/US summer lull) in deal announcements",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in August 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nNew York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) \"OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"e6ac1841531648d4\", \"sheet_id\": \"141\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in August 2026, when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026: [Mistral AI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/mistral-ai/__SLZq7rzxLYqqA97jtPwO09jLDeb76RVJVb306OhciWU/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), [Anthropic](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/anthropic/__SzoxXDMin-NK5tKB7ks8yHr6S9Mz68pjVCzFEcGFZ08/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), or [OpenAI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/openai/__kElhSG7uVGeFk1i71Co9-nwFtmtyMVT7f-YHMn4TFBg/funding-and-investors).\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.40) Will OpenAI have a funding round with a date in August 2026 listed on its TracXn funding page (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)? \u2014 OpenAI is the largest and most frequent fundraiser of the three; TracXn logs tranches, debt facilities, and secondary/ro\n- (w=0.35) Will Anthropic have a funding round with a date in August 2026 listed on its TracXn funding page? \u2014 Anthropic has raised repeatedly (Series E/F, strategic investments from Google/Microsoft/Nvidia), giving a nontrivial mo\n- (w=0.25) Will Mistral AI have a funding round with a date in August 2026 listed on its TracXn funding page? \u2014 Mistral raises less frequently (roughly annually) but is actively fundraising amid the European AI boom; adds a smaller \n\nCombination rule: **independent_or**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model using trailing round frequency gives per-month probabilities of ~0.22 (OpenAI), ~0.24 (Anthropic), ~0.13 (Mistral), and ~0.49 for at least one.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Tracxn lists OpenAI with 14 funding rounds totaling $180B, including seed, early, 9 late-stage, debt and a grant round.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI announced a $110B round on Feb 27, 2026, then added $10B more in late March, bringing it above $120B; Tracxn logs it as a Feb 27, 2026 Series F of $122B.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] The Feb/March 2026 raise was described as possibly OpenAI\u0027s last private fundraise before an expected IPO, and OpenAI circulated an IPO-prospectus-like investor document.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] OpenAI\u0027s added $10B tranche in March 2026 shows the company books incremental tranches over months, a pattern Tracxn often records as separate rounds.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Musk v. Altman trial over OpenAI\u0027s for-profit conversion ran through April\u2013May 2026 with Musk seeking Altman\u0027s ouster and rollback of the restructuring.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Anthropic closed a $65B Series H at a $965B post-money valuation on May 28, 2026, led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Anthropic raised $30B at a $380B valuation roughly three months before the May 2026 round, implying a raise cadence of roughly one round per quarter in 2026.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Anthropic is in ongoing litigation with the Pentagon over a \u0027supply chain risk\u0027 designation; a district judge blocked it in March 2026 and an appeal was argued in May 2026.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Mistral\u0027s last reported round is a \u20ac1.7B Series C led by ASML in September 2025; no new 2026 round reported as of early July 2026.\n11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Mistral committed to a \u20ac4B data-center buildout across France and Sweden and acquired Koyeb in February 2026, with ARR above $400M targeting $1B.\n12. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Crunchbase data showed AI companies raised a record $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding environment across the sector.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.93, Volume: $247.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.20, Volume: $2.0M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $261.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.57, Volume: $968.6K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $181.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $172.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $152.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $166.6K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct scrape of the three TracXn pages showing exact historical round dates/counts\n - No reporting on any in-progress raise dated July\u2013August 2026 for any of the three\n - Unknown base rate of TracXn back-dating/logging lag for tranches and secondaries\n - No data on whether OpenAI IPO timing was set, which would replace private rounds\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether TracXn counts tranches, debt and secondaries as separate dated rounds\n - Whether Anthropic follows its ~quarterly 2026 cadence with an August raise\n - Whether Mistral launches a Series D to fund its \u20ac4B compute buildout\n - August seasonality (European/US summer lull) in deal announcements\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.42,
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p_yes": 0.4409684,
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves when Metaculus checks TracXn on/after Sept 1, 2026 \u2014 roughly two months from the evidence cutoff (early July 2026), covering a single specific calendar month (August 2026). (b) Status quo: none of the three has a publicly reported in-progress raise dated July\u2013August 2026; OpenAI closed a mega-round in Feb/Mar 2026 (possibly its last before an IPO), Anthropic closed a $65B Series H in late May 2026, and Mistral\u0027s last round was Sept 2025. If nothing changes, no August-dated round appears and the question resolves No. (c) NO scenario: the summer lull plus recent mega-rounds mean all three are well capitalized; OpenAI pivots to IPO prep rather than a private tranche, Anthropic\u0027s next raise slips to Q4, and Mistral\u0027s Series D lands in autumn. (d) YES scenario: Anthropic continues its ~quarterly 2026 cadence with an August close; or TracXn logs an incremental OpenAI tranche, debt facility, or secondary dated August; or Mistral announces a Series D to fund its \u20ac4B compute buildout. Base-rate Poisson modeling on trailing round frequency gives ~0.2 (OpenAI), ~0.25 (Anthropic), ~0.1 (Mistral) for a specific month, and roughly 45% for at least one \u2014 I shade slightly down for August seasonality and the fact all three just raised large sums, but slightly up for TracXn\u0027s tendency to log tranches/debt/secondaries as separate dated rounds and the record-hot AI funding environment.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.2,
"sq2": 0.25,
"sq3": 0.08
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Credible reporting of an in-progress raise (e.g., Anthropic Series I talks, a Mistral Series D, or an OpenAI tranche/debt facility) expected to close in August would push me above 70%; confirmation of an imminent OpenAI IPO plus explicit signals that Anthropic and Mistral are pausing raises until Q4 would push me below 30%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate each company\u0027s monthly hazard of a TracXn-listed round from its trailing multi-year round frequency (inflated because TracXn logs tranches, debt, and secondaries), adjust upward for any reported in-progress raises, then combine via independent OR since any single company suffices, with mild downward blending for correlation and TracXn listing lag.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will OpenAI have a funding round with a date in August 2026 listed on its TracXn funding page (as checked on/after Sept 1, 2026)?",
"rationale": "OpenAI is the largest and most frequent fundraiser of the three; TracXn logs tranches, debt facilities, and secondary/round extensions, so its per-month hit rate dominates the OR.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Anthropic have a funding round with a date in August 2026 listed on its TracXn funding page?",
"rationale": "Anthropic has raised repeatedly (Series E/F, strategic investments from Google/Microsoft/Nvidia), giving a nontrivial monthly base rate of new TracXn-listed rounds.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Mistral AI have a funding round with a date in August 2026 listed on its TracXn funding page?",
"rationale": "Mistral raises less frequently (roughly annually) but is actively fundraising amid the European AI boom; adds a smaller independent chance.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Approximate historical TracXn-style round counts (any round type incl. tranches, debt, secondaries)\n# over the trailing ~36 months for each company; adjust with research findings.\nmonths = 36\ncounts = {\u0027OpenAI\u0027: 9, \u0027Anthropic\u0027: 10, \u0027Mistral\u0027: 5}\nres={}\nfor k,c in counts.items():\n lam = c/months\n p = 1-np.exp(-lam)\n res[k]=p\nprint(res)\np_any = 1-np.prod([1-p for p in res.values()])\nprint(\u0027P(any in a given month) =\u0027, p_any)\n# Sensitivity: scale activity up/down\nfor scale in [0.5,0.75,1.0,1.5,2.0]:\n ps=[1-np.exp(-scale*counts[k]/months) for k in counts]\n print(scale, round(1-np.prod([1-x for x in ps]),3))\n",
"description": "Poisson base-rate estimate of the probability that at least one of the three companies has a TracXn-listed funding round dated in a specific month, with sensitivity to fundraising-activity scaling."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the complete recent funding history (dates and round types, including tranches, debt facilities, secondary sales, and strategic investments) for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Mistral AI over the past 24 months, and any reports of in-progress or imminent new funding rounds expected in mid-to-late 2026. Note how frequently each company records a new round per month.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in August 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"OpenAI funding round 2026 valuation raise",
"Anthropic raises funding round 2026 investors",
"Mistral AI funding round Series 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"OpenAI Anthropic Mistral new funding round announced 2026",
"Tracxn OpenAI funding rounds list 2026",
"Anthropic funding talks August 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-06T21:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nNew York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) \"OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"e6ac1841531648d4\", \"sheet_id\": \"141\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in August 2026, when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026: [Mistral AI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/mistral-ai/__SLZq7rzxLYqqA97jtPwO09jLDeb76RVJVb306OhciWU/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), [Anthropic](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/anthropic/__SzoxXDMin-NK5tKB7ks8yHr6S9Mz68pjVCzFEcGFZ08/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), or [OpenAI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/openai/__kElhSG7uVGeFk1i71Co9-nwFtmtyMVT7f-YHMn4TFBg/funding-and-investors).\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in August 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.93, Volume: $247.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.20, Volume: $2.0M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $261.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.57, Volume: $968.6K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $181.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $172.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $152.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $166.6K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.19,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Poisson base-rate estimate of the probability that at least ",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 36.45,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "12 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.62,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "30 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 38.46,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Poisson base-rate model using trailing round frequency gives per-month probabilities of ~0.22 (OpenAI), ~0.24 (Anthropic), ~0.13 (Mistral), and ~0.49 for at least one.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Tracxn lists OpenAI with 14 funding rounds totaling $180B, including seed, early, 9 late-stage, debt and a grant round.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "OpenAI announced a $110B round on Feb 27, 2026, then added $10B more in late March, bringing it above $120B; Tracxn logs it as a Feb 27, 2026 Series F of $122B.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The Feb/March 2026 raise was described as possibly OpenAI\u0027s last private fundraise before an expected IPO, and OpenAI circulated an IPO-prospectus-like investor document.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "OpenAI\u0027s added $10B tranche in March 2026 shows the company books incremental tranches over months, a pattern Tracxn often records as separate rounds.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Musk v. Altman trial over OpenAI\u0027s for-profit conversion ran through April\u2013May 2026 with Musk seeking Altman\u0027s ouster and rollback of the restructuring.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Anthropic closed a $65B Series H at a $965B post-money valuation on May 28, 2026, led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Anthropic raised $30B at a $380B valuation roughly three months before the May 2026 round, implying a raise cadence of roughly one round per quarter in 2026.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Anthropic is in ongoing litigation with the Pentagon over a \u0027supply chain risk\u0027 designation; a district judge blocked it in March 2026 and an appeal was argued in May 2026.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Mistral\u0027s last reported round is a \u20ac1.7B Series C led by ASML in September 2025; no new 2026 round reported as of early July 2026.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Mistral committed to a \u20ac4B data-center buildout across France and Sweden and acquired Koyeb in February 2026, with ARR above $400M targeting $1B.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Crunchbase data showed AI companies raised a record $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding environment across the sector.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct scrape of the three TracXn pages showing exact historical round dates/counts",
"No reporting on any in-progress raise dated July\u2013August 2026 for any of the three",
"Unknown base rate of TracXn back-dating/logging lag for tranches and secondaries",
"No data on whether OpenAI IPO timing was set, which would replace private rounds"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether TracXn counts tranches, debt and secondaries as separate dated rounds",
"Whether Anthropic follows its ~quarterly 2026 cadence with an August raise",
"Whether Mistral launches a Series D to fund its \u20ac4B compute buildout",
"August seasonality (European/US summer lull) in deal announcements"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 37.46,
"plan": 24.88,
"research": 38.47,
"synthesis": 26.25
}
}