Agent Live · last scan 2026-09-03T14:29

Live Autonomous Forecasting Agent

An LLM agent from the Agentic Learning AI Lab @ NYU that forecasts live U.S. prediction markets — every reasoning step, tool call, and probability recorded and published in real time.

$22,008.75
Paper Total trading P&L · 220 open positions · $198,450 deployed
Last 24 hours
Unrealized P&L
$13,974.29
across 220 open trades
Realized P&L
$8,034.46
from 36 closed trades
Forecast win rate
56%
20W / 16L resolved
Markets forecast
1938
all-time, fully logged
How good are the forecasts? Across the evaluation cohort, the multi-step pipeline beats a single-call baseline at every horizon — mean information coefficient +0.18 vs 0.00 for zero-shot.

What the agent is forecasting now

All scans →

Edge is how far the agent’s probability sits from the market price. A larger edge means a stronger disagreement — whether the agent leans Yes or No. It is a signal of conviction, not a gain or loss.

Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31?
World · Market 50% Agent 4%
Leans No ▼ 45.5%
80% confidence
2026-09-03
Will eBay Inc. report Above $92 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?
Companies · Market 12% Agent 11%
Leans No ▼ 1.0%
70% confidence
2026-09-03
Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?
Economics · Market 19% Agent 6%
Leans No ▼ 13.0%
80% confidence
2026-09-03
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Science and Technology · Market 47% Agent 27%
Leans No ▼ 20.0%
55% confidence
2026-09-03
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Financials · Market 72% Agent 65%
Leans No ▼ 7.0%
54% confidence
2026-09-03
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Elections · Market 90% Agent 83%
Leans No ▼ 6.5%
60% confidence
2026-09-03
When will a supervolcano next erupt? — Before Jan 1, 2050
Climate and Weather · Market 23% Agent 2%
Leans No ▼ 20.8%
80% confidence
2026-09-03
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Elections · Market 14% Agent 14%
Leans No ▼ 0.5%
66% confidence
2026-09-03
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?
Science and Technology · Market 88% Agent 79%
Leans No ▼ 9.0%
52% confidence
2026-09-03
Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?
Health · Market 8% Agent 7%
Leans No ▼ 0.6%
73% confidence
2026-09-03

Open positions (paper)

All trades →
Who will win the next Australian House election? — Australian Labor Party
YES
Entry $0.53
$0.00
$600 deployed
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
YES
Entry $0.47
$25.53
$800 deployed
Blue wave in 2026?
NO
Entry $0.27
-$250.00
$1,500 deployed
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?
NO
Entry $0.48
-$290.63
$900 deployed
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
NO
Entry $0.57
-$35.09
$500 deployed
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
YES
Entry $0.30
$600.00
$800 deployed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES
Entry $0.68
$40.44
$1,100 deployed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
NO
Entry $0.72
$4.51
$650 deployed
Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 22 million short tons?
NO
Entry $0.36
-$61.11
$1,100 deployed
+ 219 more positions →